AUSTRALIAN LAND USE, LAND
USE-CHANGE AND FORESTRY
EMISSIONS PROJECTIONS
TO 2035
MARCH 2015
1
© Commonwealth of Australia, 2015.
Australian Land Use, Land Use-Change and Forestry emissions projections is licensed by the
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This report should be attributed as ‘Australian Land Use, Land Use-Change and Forestry
emissions projections, Commonwealth of Australia March 2015’.
The Commonwealth of Australia has made all reasonable efforts to identify content supplied by
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Disclaimer
The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not
necessarily reflect those of the Australian Government or the Minister for the Environment.
2
CONTENTS
Contents ......................................................................................................................................... 3
Figures ........................................................................................................................................ 6
Tables ......................................................................................................................................... 6
Summary of key projections results................................................................................................. 8
UNFCCC reporting system .......................................................................................................... 8
The Kyoto Protocol ...................................................................................................................... 8
The Australian Government’s pledge to reduce emissions by 5 per cent below 2000 levels by
2020 ............................................................................................................................................ 8
Paris 2015 commitments ............................................................................................................. 8
Projected net emissions for the land sector ................................................................................. 9
1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 13
Classification systems ............................................................................................................... 14
Accounting systems .................................................................................................................. 16
UNFCCC reporting framework ............................................................................................ 16
Kyoto Protocol accounting system ...................................................................................... 17
Emissions estimation systems ................................................................................................... 18
Australia’s national inventory system ..................................................................................... 18
Anthropogenic emissions ................................................................................................... 21
Planned national inventory improvements ................................................................................. 22
Core projections methodology ................................................................................................... 22
2. Sectoral emissions projections .................................................................................................. 23
2.1 Forest conversion to alternative land uses ........................................................................... 23
Classifications ........................................................................................................................ 23
Estimation of emissions and removals ................................................................................... 23
Drivers of emissions and removals ........................................................................................ 26
How much clearing? ........................................................................................................... 26
Where does land clearing occur? ....................................................................................... 27
Key projections assumptions and activity data ....................................................................... 29
Projection results ................................................................................................................... 29
3
Classifications ........................................................................................................................ 31
Estimation of emissions and removals ................................................................................... 32
Natural disturbances .......................................................................................................... 32
Other forests ...................................................................................................................... 33
Drivers of emissions and removals ........................................................................................ 33
Governing framework ......................................................................................................... 34
Demand and supply conditions for Australian wood products ............................................. 34
Supply of wood products - hardwood plantation production / post 1990 plantations ........... 36
Supply of wood products - softwood plantations / pre-1990 plantations .............................. 36
Supply of wood products - native forests ............................................................................ 36
Key projections assumptions and activity data ....................................................................... 37
Projections results.................................................................................................................. 38
2.3 Land conversion to forest .................................................................................................... 40
Classifications ........................................................................................................................ 40
Estimation of emissions and removals ................................................................................... 41
Drivers of emissions and removals ........................................................................................ 42
Plantations for timber ......................................................................................................... 42
Environmental plantings ..................................................................................................... 43
Regeneration from natural seed sources ............................................................................ 43
Wildfire ............................................................................................................................... 44
Key projections assumptions and activity data ....................................................................... 44
Projection results ................................................................................................................... 44
2.4 Crop lands ........................................................................................................................... 45
Classifications ........................................................................................................................ 46
Estimation of emissions and removals ................................................................................... 46
Drivers of emissions and removals ........................................................................................ 47
Key projections assumptions, methods and activity data ....................................................... 49
Projection results ................................................................................................................... 49
2.5 Grass lands ......................................................................................................................... 50
Classifications ........................................................................................................................ 51
4
Estimation of emissions and removals ................................................................................... 51
Drivers of emissions and removals ........................................................................................ 52
Changes in woody biomass management .......................................................................... 52
Changes in fire management.............................................................................................. 53
Key projections assumptions, methods and activity data ....................................................... 54
Projection results ................................................................................................................... 54
2.6 Revegetation ....................................................................................................................... 55
2.7 Wetland management ......................................................................................................... 55
References ................................................................................................................................... 57
5
Figures
Figure 1 Land emissions, by UNFCCC classifications, Australia, Mt CO2-e, 1990-2035................ 12
Figure 2 Depiction of the FullCAM modelling system .................................................................... 20
Figure 3 Forest productivity index, Australia.................................................................................. 23
Figure 4 Distribution of aboveground biomass for deforestation, Australia .................................... 25
Figure 5 Forest Conversion, ha, Australia, 1990-2013 .................................................................. 26
Figure 6 Spatial distribution of Forest Conversion events, Australia, 1990-2013 ........................... 27
Figure 7 Net emissions from Forest conversion, Australia, 1990-2013 .......................................... 28
Figure 8 Forest conversion and farmers’ terms of trade, Australia, 1973–2013 ............................. 28
Figure 9 Forest conversion net emissions, Mt CO2-e, Australia, 1990-2035 .................................. 30
Figure 10 Area burned, Multiple Use Forests, 1990-2013 ............................................................. 32
Figure 11 Estimated volume of wood products supplied, Australia, 1990-2013 ............................. 36
Figure 12 Forest land and Land converted to forest, net emissions, 1990-2035 ............................ 39
Figure 13 Annual area of new plantings 1990-2013 ...................................................................... 42
Figure 14 Annual net emissions from Land converted to forest 1990-2013 ................................... 42
Figure 15 Cropland area 1970 – 2013........................................................................................... 48
Figure 16 Cropland area subject to no-till management 1970 – 2013............................................ 48
Figure 17 Cropland area subject to types of stubble management, 1970 – 2013 .......................... 49
Figure 18 Annual transitions between sparse vegetation and non-woody land.............................. 53
Figure 19 Spatial distribution of the frequency of fires across Australia ......................................... 53
Tables
Table 1 Net emissions for the land sector, UNFCCC classifications, 1990-2035, Australia ........... 10
Table 2 Net emissions for the land sector, Kyoto Protocol classifications, 1990-2035, Australia ... 10
Table 3 Kyoto Protocol – Projected net assigned amount units issued and cancelled, 1990-2035,
Australia a ............................................................................................................................... 11
Table 4 Kyoto Protocol – Projected RMU credits issued and cancelled, 1990-2020, Australia ...... 11
Table 5 UNFCCC land subsectors ................................................................................................ 14
Table 6 Kyoto Protocol land subsectors ........................................................................................ 15
Table 7 Reconciliation table between UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol classifications ...................... 15
Table 8 Forest conversions and Deforestation, Australia, 1990-2035............................................ 30
Table 9 Forest management land area ......................................................................................... 34
6
Table 10 Forest land and Forest Management net emissions 1990-2035 ..................................... 39
Table 11 Forest Management and Afforestation/Reforestation: actual and projected RMU net
credits 2008-2020 .................................................................................................................. 40
Table 12 Land converted to forest and Afforestation/Reforestation, net emissions, 1990-2035 ..... 45
Table 13 Crop land and Crop Management net emissions, 1990-2035 ......................................... 50
Table 14 Grass and Grazing land management emissions 1990-2035 ......................................... 55
7
SUMMARY OF KEY PROJECTIONS RESULTS
This paper provides estimates of projected net anthropogenic emissions from the land sector for
Australia for the period until 2035.
The estimates for the land sector have been prepared according to two different classification
systems that have developed over time under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) and under the Kyoto Protocol.
While more complex than other sectors, the dual reporting system is necessary to support the
tracking of progress towards the Australian Government’s current and future international emission
reduction commitments.
UNFCCC reporting system
The UNFCCC classification system provides consistent estimates of the changes in the release of
net anthropogenic emissions to the atmosphere by a country over time.
The Australian Government currently reports estimates of carbon dioxide emissions and removals
from the land sector under this UNFCCC system in the Government’s annual National Inventory
Report (see Department of the Environment, forthcoming).
The UNFCCC system provides the building blocks for all other greenhouse gas reporting and
accounting systems. It is used, for example, by the United States as the basis for the monitoring of
its commitment to reduce emissions by 17 per cent below 2005 levels by 2020.
The Kyoto Protocol
The Kyoto Protocol classification system is relevant as the Australian Government is a party to the
Kyoto Protocol and it has inscribed an emission reduction commitment in the treaty amendments
agreed for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, 2013-2020.
The Protocol differs from the UNFCCC system as it tends to emphasise the role of direct human
activities and of changes in management practices in generating net emission outcomes on the
land.
This system is also used by the European Union, Norway and Switzerland in their accounting
against their emission reduction commitments for the period 2013-2020. The European Union has
indicated that is also open to using the UNFCCC classification system for the post 2020 period.
The Kyoto Protocol provides for the commodification of the emission estimates in order to support
international emissions trading systems. This aspect of the Kyoto Protocol has important
implications for the accounting of land sector emissions.
The Australian Government’s pledge to reduce emissions by 5 per cent below 2000 levels
by 2020
The Australian Government has indicated that it will use classification systems from the Kyoto
Protocol in the monitoring and reporting of its commitment to reduce emissions by 5 per cent below
2000 levels by 2020.
Paris 2015 commitments
In the lead up to the international Conference in Paris, at the end of 2015, the Australian
Government will be announcing an intended national contribution for the period beyond 2020.
8
Consequently, this paper also provides projections of net anthropogenic emissions for the period
beyond 2020.
There is no detail, as yet, as to the land sector accounting rules that will apply to the reporting by
countries against their post 2020 national emission reduction commitments.
Both UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol systems, as used by the United States and by the European
Union, remain relevant for consideration by the Australian Government in the development of its
post-2020 national emission reduction commitments.
The two systems - while conceptually quite different – produce similar outcomes which can be
reconciled, and this is also demonstrated in this paper.
Projected net emissions for the land sector
Overall, under the UNFCCC classification system, net emissions from the land sector are projected
to be 15 Mt a year on average over the period 2013-2020 and 30 Mt a year over the period 20212030 (Table 1 and Figure 1).
Under the Kyoto Protocol classifications used to track progress towards the Government’s
commitment to reduce emissions by 5 per cent below 2000 levels by 2020, net emissions are
projected to be 44 Mt in 2020 (Table 2).
The implications of the land sector emissions data for the issuance and cancellation of tradable
units for the second commitment period (2013-2020) of the Kyoto Protocol are presented in Table
3 and Table 4.
Under Kyoto Protocol rules, a tradable allowance called an assigned amount unit is issued for
every tonne of emissions from Forest conversion in the 1990 base year. This treatment of Forest
Conversion emissions is exactly the same as the treatment of emissions from sources in the
industrial sectors or for the Agriculture sector.
In the reporting period, 2013-2020, one allowance is cancelled for every tonne of emissions
reported from the Deforestation activity (again, exactly the same as for emissions from sources in
the industrial sectors or for the Agriculture sector). Net emissions from Deforestation are projected
to be 46 Mt on average over the period 2013-2020 (Table 2).
For land categories other than Deforestation, credits (called RMU credits) are issued against the
reduction in net emissions relative to a specified benchmark base year or reference level – or units
are cancelled for any increase in net emissions relative to a specified benchmark base year or
reference level.
The amount of net credits to be issued for the additional land activities – Afforestation and
Reforestation, Forest Management, Cropland Management, Grazing Land Management and
Revegetation are projected to average 13 Mt over 2013-2020 (Table 4).
9
Table 1 Net emissions for the land sector, UNFCCC classifications, 1990-2035,
Australia
1990
2000
Average Average
2008-12 2013-20
2020
202130
2030
2035
Mt CO2-e
Forest land
Forest land permanent
-38
-12
-16
-28
-27
-19
-20
-21
1
-12
-16
-9
-2
-6
-5
-10
Croplands –
permanent
0
-9
-1
0
3
2
1
1
Forest converted
to crops
34
10
5
5
5
5
5
4
-4
2
-4
0
2
3
4
5
102
69
47
47
49
44
42
39
Settlements
IE
IE
IE
IE
IE
IE
IE
IE
Wetlands
NE
NE
NE
NE
NE
NE
NE
NE
TOTAL LAND
95
49
16
15
30
30
27
18
Land converted to
forest
Cropland
Grassland
Grasslands –
permanent
Forest converted
to grass
Table 2 Net emissions for the land sector, Kyoto Protocol classifications, 1990-2035,
Australia
2000
base
Average Average
2008-12 2013-20
2020
20212030
2030
2035
Mt CO2-e
Deforestation
69
49
46
47
44
42
40
Forest Management
-2
-9
-17
-15
-7
-8
-9
Afforestation and
Reforestation
-12
-15
-9
-2
-5
-5
-10
Cropland Management
-4
0
3
6
4
3
2
Grazing land management
10
2
6
8
8
9
8
Revegetation
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Wetlands a
NE
NE
NE
NE
NE
NE
NE
TOTAL LAND
62
27
30
44
44
41
32
a
Wetlands estimates have not yet been included in the national greenhouse accounts.
10
Table 3 Kyoto Protocol – Projected net assigned amount units issued and cancelled,
1990-2035, Australia a
1990 base
Average
2008-12
Average
2013-20
Mt CO2-e
Deforestation total a
136
49
46
a
Under the Kyoto Protocol, by virtue of Article 3.7bis, emissions from land use change (deforestation) are treated the
same way as emissions from any other source. Assigned amount units are issued according to the emissions estimated
for the base year, 1990, and cancelled according to the emissions reported in the accounting period (eg 2013-2020).
Table 4 Kyoto Protocol – Projected RMU credits issued and cancelled, 1990-2020,
Australia
1990 base
2000
Average
2008-12
Average
2013-20
Mt
Total RMU removal units issued/cancelled
NA
NA
22
13
a
NA
NA
NA
15
NA
NA
22
9
NA
NA
NA
-3
NA
NA
NA
-8
NA
NA
NA
0
NA
NA
NA
NA
Forest Management
Afforestation and Reforestation
Cropland Management
a
Grazing land management a b
Revegetation
Wetlands c
a
a Australia
will account for Forest Management, Croplands Management, Grazing land Management and Revegetation
for the first time in the 2013-2020 period.
b
In this paper, Crop and Grazing land management RMU credits estimates were adjusted for the emissions reported
under Forest Conversion in the UNFCCC inventory in 1990 in order to avoid double counting.
c
Wetlands have not been included in the accounting for 2013-2020, but may be considered for future national
inventory reporting.
11
Figure 1 Land emissions, by UNFCCC classifications, Australia, Mt CO2-e, 1990-2035
12
1. INTRODUCTION
Unlike other sectors, activities on the land can generate both sources of greenhouse gas
emissions and sinks that remove or sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Net emissions1 from the land are heavily influenced by biological processes and, consequently,
tend to be more variable, more complex and more difficult to estimate than for many other sources
of emissions.
Nevertheless, as a net source of emissions, the land sector remains significant. In Australia, in
1990 the land accounted for around 24 per cent of total emissions reported in the national
inventory.
Internationally, the land sector has contributed an estimated 19 per cent of global carbon
dioxide emissions since 1960 (IPCC, 2014).
Mitigation scenarios reported by the IPCC identify the land sector as a major contributor to
global responses designed to limit global net emissions consistent with a 2C ceiling.
In this paper, net anthropogenic emissions are projected for a comprehensive range of land sector
categories for the period until 2035.
Currently, the Australian Government has two emission reduction commitments.
The Australian Government has committed to reduce emissions by 5 per cent below 2000 levels in
2020. This is a target that has also been reported as a commitment under the UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The Australian Government has also inscribed a commitment in amendments to the Kyoto Protocol
to reduce emissions to 99.5 per cent of 1990 emission levels for the second commitment period,
which extends from 2013-2020.
The Australian Government has not yet ratified these amendments, but the commitment remains
relevant as the Australian Government is a party to the Kyoto Protocol itself.
In the lead up to the international conference in Paris, at the end of 2015, the Australian
Government will be announcing an intended nationally determined contribution for the period
beyond 2020.
The international accounting rules that may apply for the land sector for this commitment are not
yet clear. Consequently, in this paper, the implications of the projections for net emissions for the
land sector are considered under a number of scenarios that may be applicable for future national
emission reduction commitments.
These scenarios reflect choices about emission classification systems, which are important for
coverage and completeness issues, accounting frameworks and emission estimation systems.
These issues are discussed briefly in the next three sections.
1
Net emissions are defined as emissions less removals by sinks.
13
Classification systems
Projected estimates of net anthropogenic emissions from the land sector are presented
against both UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol emission classification systems.
The Australian Government currently reports anthropogenic land sector emissions under two
separate classification systems. One of these systems is used for reporting under the UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and a separate system is used for
reporting under the Kyoto Protocol.
Both systems are relevant for consideration in the development of post-2020 national emission
reduction commitments.
The relevant sector in the UNFCCC classification system is known as the Land use, land use
change and forestry (LULUCF) sector. It includes carbon dioxide emissions2 and removals3 from
the land.
The UNFCCC land classification system derives from broader land use statistical systems
incorporated in national economic statistical systems. The most important categories are presented
in Table 5.
Table 5 UNFCCC land subsectors
Subsector
Activity Definition
Forest land
is all vegetation that potentially meets the definition of a forest (vegetation
must be 2 metres high and a minimum of 20 percent canopy coverage)
and includes native forests and plantations where the land is used for
forest purposes.
Forest land converted to
other uses
is the permanent replacement of forest land with land used for pasture,
crops or other uses.
Land converted to forest
is the permanent conversion of land to forest land. Forests may be planted
or established through other human induced means. Direct conversion to
forest from natural seed sources may occur on land that is regulated as
forest under State regulatory provisions.
Croplands
is land on which a system of management practices support the production
of agricultural crops grown either continuously or in rotation with pasture. It
includes land that is set aside or temporarily not being used for crop
production.
Grassland
includes rangelands and areas of improved pasture. It also includes
systems with woody vegetation (shrubs) which do not meet the definition of
forest.
A separate classification system developed under the Kyoto Protocol that tends to emphasise the
importance of changes in management practices in generating anthropogenic emission and
removal outcomes. The most important categories are presented in Table 6.
An ‘emission’ is defined by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change as the release of greenhouse gases into
the atmosphere.
3 A ‘removal’ refers to the removal or sequestration of a greenhouse gas from the atmosphere.
2
14
Table 6 Kyoto Protocol land subsectors
Subsector
Activity Definition
Deforestation
is the direct, human-induced removal of forest cover and replacement with
pasture, crops or other uses since 1 January 1990.
Reforestation / afforestation
is the establishment of new forests by direct human action on land not
forested as at 1 January 1990 (afforestation and reforestation).
Forest management
is a system of practices for stewardship and use of forestland aimed at
fulfilling relevant ecological, economic and social functions of the forest in a
sustainable manner.
Grazing Land Management
is the system of practices on land used for livestock production aimed at
manipulating the amount and type of vegetation and livestock produced.
Cropland Management
is the system of practices on land on which agricultural crops are grown,
and on land that is set aside or temporarily not being used for crop
production.
Revegetation
is a direct human-induced activity to increase carbon stocks on sites
through the establishment of vegetation that covers a minimum area of
0.05 hectares and does not meet the definitions of afforestation and
reforestation.
While there are some essential differences between the two classification systems, it is possible to
reconcile them and to demonstrate the differences that exist, if any. This information is also useful
to understand the implications of the adoption of one or other of the two classification systems for a
post 2020 target.
For the most part, the differences have become either less pronounced or less significant as the
coverage of land activities adopted by the Australian Government has increased over time.
In Table 7, a concordance between UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol classifications used in the
preparation of net emission estimates in this report is presented.
Table 7 Reconciliation table between UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol classifications
UNFCCC
Kyoto Protocol
Forest land
Forest land – multiple use forests
Forest Management
Forest land – pre-1990 plantations
Forest Management
Forest land – private native forests
Monitored for Forest Management activity
Forest land – conservation reserves
Monitored for Forest Management activity
Forest land – other native forest
Monitored for Forest Management activity
Land converted to forest
New plantations since 1990
Afforestation / Reforestation
Native regeneration since 1990 – direct
human induced
Afforestation / Reforestation
Cropland
Croplands – permanent
Cropland management
Forest converted to crops
Deforestation
Grassland converted to crops
Cropland management
15
UNFCCC
Kyoto Protocol
Grassland
Grasslands – permanent
Grazing land management
Forest converted to grass since 1990 – direct
human induced
Deforestation
Forest converted to grass – pre-1990 conversion –
direct human induced
Grazing land management
Crop converted to grass
Grazing land management
Settlements
Revegetation
Wetlands
Revegetation
Accounting systems
Projected estimates of net emissions from the land sector are presented against both
UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol accounting frameworks.
The Australian Government currently reports land sector emissions under two separate accounting
frameworks. One of these systems is used for reporting under the UNFCCC and a separate
system is used for reporting under the Kyoto Protocol.
Both accounting frameworks are relevant for consideration in the development of post-2020
national emission reduction commitments.
UNFCCC reporting framework
The Australian government currently reports net emissions for the period 1990 onwards under its
reporting commitments under the UNFCCC.
These estimates are published in the Australian Government’s National Inventory Report and
provide the capability to make a comparison of the net emissions from Australia to the atmosphere,
for any point in time, against the net emissions from Australia to the atmosphere for a chosen base
year, such as 1990 or 2000.
As the accounting rules for the land sector that will be applicable for the post 2020 period are not
yet clear, the UNFCCC classification and reporting system4 could be considered as an approach to
land sector accounting for the post 2020 period.
The United States uses this approach in its accounting of its 2020 national emission reduction
commitment.
The concordance in Table 7, and the results reported in the Summary, show that the UNFCCC
classification system could provide the basis for a broadly equivalent accounting framework to that
provided using the classification system of the Kyoto Protocol.
An accounting framework based on the UNFCCC classification and reporting system would
provide an estimate of the change in the net anthropogenic emissions to the atmosphere
from Australia over time.
When used for accounting this framework is referred to as ‘net-net’ accounting because it compares net emissions in the target year
with net emissions in the base year.
16
4
Kyoto Protocol accounting system
The Kyoto Protocol accounting rules remain relevant as the Australian Government is a party to
the Kyoto Protocol.
This approach will also be used by the European Union, Norway and Switzerland in their
accounting against their second commitment period targets.
The accounting approach to land sector categories is more complex under the Kyoto Protocol.
In the first commitment period, 2008-2012, Deforestation and Afforestation/Reforestation were the
only mandatory activities. The reporting of emission estimates against all other land activities was
optional.
While many countries elected Forest Management, and a small number of countries elected other
activities, the Australian Government did not elect any additional activities for the first commitment
period.
In practice, the two mandatory activities accounted for by Australia in the first commitment period
drew about one per cent of Australia’s land mass into the accounting framework. All other lands
remained outside the reporting and accounting boundaries of the Kyoto Protocol.
In the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, 2013-2020, the coverage of land sector
activities will be more comprehensive for Australia and will include Deforestation,
Afforestation/Reforestation, Forest Management, Crop Management, Grazing Land Management
and Revegetation activities.
Forest Management is a mandatory activity for the second commitment period and all countries
must report against this activity.
There is one additional electable activity under the second commitment period of the Kyoto
Protocol – Drainage and rewetting of organic soils – for which no estimates have been provided in
this paper. In Australia, nearly all soils are mineral soils and this type of activity would generally not
qualify under the rules agreed for the second commitment period.
The Australian Government has indicated that it will use the Kyoto Protocol classification
and emissions estimation system in its tracking towards its UNFCCC pledge to reduce
emissions by 5 per cent below 2000 levels by 2020.
The Australian Government has pledged to reduce emissions by 5% below 2000 levels by 2020
and has indicated that, in tracking towards its commitment, it will use the Kyoto Protocol
classification and emissions estimation system.
Under the Kyoto Protocol, only net emissions from Deforestation are accounted for in the
same way as emissions from other sources in the industrial and Agriculture sectors.
For the Kyoto Protocol itself, net emissions reported under the Kyoto Protocol classifications are
used to either acquit an allocation of tradable allowances, known as Assigned Amount Units
(AAUs), or to provide for the issuance of new credits known as Removal Units (RMUs).
17
Net emissions from Deforestation are treated like other national inventory sectors (energy,
industrial processes, agriculture and waste) and lead to the cancellation of AAUs.5
For all other land categories the benchmarks differ depending on the category, as set out below.
For Afforestation/Reforestation, RMUs are issued for the amount of net removals in the
commitment period.
For Forest Management, RMUs are issued for the difference between net emissions in the
commitment period and net emissions in a projected Forest Management Reference Level based
on a projection of forest net emission outcomes designed to be consistent with policies and
practices as at December 2009. Australia’s Forest Management Reference Level is 2.3 Mt CO 2-e
per year.
RMU credits are issued up to a cap of 3.5 per cent of national emissions from the industrial and
Agriculture sectors (around 120 Mt CO2-e for the second commitment period).
For Crop and Grazing Land Management, RMUs are issued for the difference, if negative, between
net emissions in the commitment period and net emissions in the base year, 1990.
As only a small number of parties use the Kyoto Protocol rules, it is not clear that these rules will
be applicable for the post 2020 period.
Emissions estimation systems
Australia’s national inventory system
Anthropogenic emissions and removals from all land sector activities are estimated using methods
consistent with the 2013 Revised Supplementary Methods and Good Practice Guidance Arising
from the Kyoto Protocol (IPCC, 2014) in conjunction with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National
Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 2006).
Australia’s national inventory system is managed by the Department of the Environment but relies
on critical data inputs and analysis from a range of institutions including GeoScience Australia, the
Bureau of Meteorology, the Australian National University, the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and
Resource Economics and Sciences, various arms of the CSIRO as well as from published data
from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Data on areas subject to land use change at a fine spatial scale are detected by the Department
using US Geological Survey satellite imagery and geographic information systems utilising
information, systems and services provided by GeoScience Australia, the CSIRO Mathematical
and Information Sciences and a number of private contractors, cross-referenced with national data
sources on land use.
Information on land use and management practices (e.g., tillage, stubble management) is drawn
from data obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics at the standard area division 2 level
and the land use mapping program of the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource
Economics and Sciences (ABARES).
Data on areas bunt by wildfire is obtained from analysis of AVHRR imagery obtained from
Landgate.
5
By virtue of Article 3.7 bis in the Kyoto Protocol treaty amendments, AAUs are issued for net emissions from Forest Conversion in the
base year, consistent with the treatment of net emissions from the industrial and Agriculture sectors.
18
The modelling framework for the estimation of emissions from the land sector in the national
inventory is provided by the FullCAM modelling framework (Figure 2) (Department of the
Environment, forthcoming).
The FullCAM model applies equations reported in Richards and Brack (2004), Brack et al. (2006)
and Waterworth et al. (2007), as well as well-understood international modules such as the Roth-C
model of soil carbon, and combines data on climate, soils and management practices, as well as
land use changes observed from satellite imagery, to produce estimates of emissions and
removals across the Australian landscape.
The exchanges of carbon loss and uptake between the terrestrial biological system and the
atmosphere are accounted for in the full/closed cycle mass balance model which includes all
biomass, litter and soil pools.
19
Figure 2 Depiction of the FullCAM modelling system
Trees
Products
Wood Products
CAMFor
Growth
Tree Components
CAMFor
Debris
Debris Holding Pools
CAMFor
Litter Pools
Forest GENDEC
Soil
Active Soil Pools
Forest RothC
Inert Soil Pool
CAMFor
Fire
The application of consistent datasets extending back to 1972 provides time series consistency to
emissions estimation, reporting and accounting against emission reduction commitments.
Climate data from the Bureau of Meteorology for rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature,
evaporation and solar radiation are processed each year by researchers at the Australian National
University to generate monthly climate surfaces (maps) at 1 km resolution.
Soil carbon data is taken from the Australian Soil Resources Information System (ASRIS),
prepared by the CSIRO, and grass and crop yield estimates are prepared by modellers at the
CSIRO Land and Water Division.
20
The national inventory is reviewed each year by international experts assembled by the UNFCCC
secretariat and their reports are published on the UNFCCC website.
Anthropogenic emissions
Under the UNFCCC and under the Kyoto Protocol countries are required to compile national
inventories of anthropogenic emissions and removals.
The Kyoto Protocol second commitment period negotiations clarified anthropogenic emissions in
two important ways.
For the second commitment period, it was agreed that it is undesirable for significant natural
disturbances to carbon stocks—which involve either a non-anthropogenic event or a nonanthropogenic circumstance—to be required to be included within national inventories used to
account for emission reduction commitments.
In Australia’s case, the most important natural disturbance relates to significant years of wildfire
emissions. In 2003, for example, emissions from wildfire would have added around 40 per cent to
the national inventory which, if included, would have made the management of any national
emission reduction target challenging.
To manage the risks of fluctuating emissions and removals from natural disturbances, countries
have the flexibility to set aside some portion of natural disturbance emissions—and the subsequent
removals—from the calculation of the net emissions used to account for national emission
reduction commitments, as long as this process does not generate an expectation of net credits or
debits being created.
Not all net emissions are excluded under this provision, allowing the possibility of an incentive to
be signalled to land managers to improve the management of the risks associated with these
natural disturbances.
The natural disturbance provision of the Kyoto Protocol has been applied to the estimation of
net emissions for both the Kyoto Protocol and UNFCCC classification systems throughout
the projection period.
For the second commitment period, it was also clarified that a range of approaches could be used
to manage inter-annual variability of net emissions caused by climate variability.
According to the IPCC, the aim of the emissions reporting exercise is to identify and report trends
and systematic changes in net anthropogenic emissions resulting from changes in management
practices over time.
Countries are encouraged to use higher tier methods (Tier 2 or Tier 3) to develop anthropogenic
emissions coefficients or models to represent the effects on net emissions of changes in
management practices rather than those of inter-annual variability and natural disturbances on
carbon stocks.
Examples of approaches that may be used to estimate emissions and removals estimation are
included in IPCC (2014).
The clarifications made by the IPCC put the estimation of net emissions from the carbon cycle on
the same footing as the estimation methods used for the nitrogen cycle.
21
The estimation processes for net emissions detailed in IPCC (2014) have been applied for
both UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol classification and reporting systems throughout the
projection period.
Planned national inventory improvements
The 2015 National Inventory Report (Department of the Environment, forthcoming) will include
estimates of emissions and removals from a range of land-based activities for the first time.
Consequently, the national inventory estimates can be expected to be refined over time as new
empirical data become available, as experience is gained, and as inventory measurement methods
for these subsectors are enhanced in future years.
New national inventory methods will also be developed for certain land based activities, particularly
in wetlands, that will permit the monitoring, reporting and eventual accounting for net emissions
from a broader range of sources in future.
The national inventory is subject to continuous improvement processes. Estimation
methods and data will continue to evolve over time to improve the accuracy, completeness
and comparability of the inventory.
Core projections methodology
The projections of the key variables across the land sector are prepared through economic models
that link observed human activity to economic conditions and directly observed changes in policies
and management practices to the physical properties and the responsiveness of the carbon
biosphere of the land.
For this purpose, the department applies a reduced form, tier 2 version of the FullCAM model
(Department of the Environment, forthcoming) and related models - explained in more detail below.
Data for the projections period is derived, where applicable, from ABARES and from CIE 2015.
22
2. SECTORAL EMISSIONS PROJECTIONS
2.1 Forest conversion to alternative land uses
The conversion of forest to alternative land uses is an important contributor to Australia’s total net
greenhouse gas emissions.
Forest conversion releases carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases when forest vegetation is
cleared, burned or left to decay, and as soil carbon declines over time.
Net emissions from Forest Conversion are estimated to have been 80 million tonnes of
carbon dioxide equivalent in 2000 and are projected to be 54 million tonnes in 2020 and 43
million tonnes in 2035.
Classifications
The Forest conversion categories in the UNFCCC classification system include direct humaninduced and permanent conversion of forest land to other land uses such as agriculture, mining or
settlement expansion.
The categories also include instances where a decision has been taken to not replant a forest
plantation and convert the land to an alternative use or where native forest has not regenerated
after harvest.
The Forest conversion categories also include indirect conversion of forest land where forest cover
loss has occurred after a fire, is considered permanent and, where, ultimately, land has been
converted to an alternative use.
Under the Kyoto Protocol Deforestation is a subset of Forest Conversion and includes only the net
emissions from direct human-induced forest conversion since 1 January 1990.
Net emissions from forest conversion prior to 1990 are accounted for under Grazing land
Management and Cropland Management.
Estimation of emissions and removals
Emissions and removals from Forest land and for Forest Management are estimated using
methods consistent with the 2013 Revised Supplementary Methods and Good Practice Guidance
for LULUCF Arising from the Kyoto Protocol (IPCC, 2014) in conjunction with the 2006 IPCC
Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC 2006).
In Australia’s national inventory, modelling of the effects of changes in management practices is
undertaken with the FullCAM model at a fine spatial disaggregation. The modelling framework is
explained in more detail in the National Inventory Report (Department of the Environment,
forthcoming). A reduced form, tier 2 version of the model, used for Projections, can be used to
illustrate the important processes below.
Emissions from Forest Conversion are estimated using FullCAM equations relating on-site
biomass to spatial datasets of soil quality and climate variables in a ‘forest productivity index’
(Figure 3).
Figure 3 Forest productivity index, Australia
23
Sources: Figure 1a: National Inventory Report 2012, vol. 2, p. 131. Figure 1b: Derived from data in the National Inventory
Report 2012, described in vol. 2, appendix 7.C. For more information on the forest productivity index, see: Kesteven, J.
et al (2004), Developing a National Forest Productivity Model, NCAS Technical Report No. 23, Australian Greenhouse
Office.
The estimated above ground biomass prior to clearing at the sites where clearing has occurred can
be illustrated in Figure 4, which shows a frequency distribution of the results, expressed as the
area in the Deforestation account (in thousands of hectares) at every value of the modelled initial
aboveground biomass density (in tonnes of dry matter per hectare, t dm / ha).
24
Figure 4 Distribution of aboveground biomass for deforestation, Australia
The modelled estimates cover a large range of values. Most estimates are quite low, between
around 25 and 85 t dm / ha, as most clearing since 1990 has occurred in areas of relatively sparse
forest cover. The distribution also has a long tail extending to much higher values, however, as well
as a ‘bulge’ around 100 to 160 t dm / ha. The lowest value in the distribution is 7 t dm / ha, and the
highest value is 647 t dm / ha.
The mean of the distribution occurs at 80 t dm / ha, which represents the modelled average
aboveground biomass density prior to first-time clearing in areas within the Kyoto deforestation
account. The median is 59 t dm / ha, which is lower than the mean due to the effect of relatively
infrequent units of land with high modelled initial biomass densities.
The results reflect an estimate of the long-term average aboveground biomass density that was
present in these areas prior to the first clearing event—this can then be used to assist in the
calculation of net emissions or carbon stocks.
Not all land cleared is first-time clearing but is land where vegetation is managed by repeated reclearing for purposes of grazing or other agricultural activity.
Emissions from re-clearing of regenerated forests are typically lower than from first-time clearing
since regenerated forests may not yet have reached their long-term average biomass densities.
In the national inventory, these effects of regrowing forests are modelled using FullCAM using
equations reported in Department of the Environment forthcoming and, earlier, in Richards and
Brack (2004), Brack et al. (2006) and Waterworth et al. (2007).
Typical values of biomass for areas of re-cleared land are 22 tonnes per hectare in woodlands
(88 per cent of clearing); 49 tonnes per hectare in open forest (10 per cent of clearing); and 64
tonnes of biomass in closed forests (2 per cent of clearing).
Remote sensing of forests for re-plantings and regeneration is undertaken to identify these
additional sources of forest conversion.
25
Forest conversion to grasslands may also occur as a result of indirect management actions after
wildfire. Where the forest is converted to an alternative land use subsequent to a fire, the net
emissions associated with the conversion event are reported under Forest conversion.
Areas of indirect human-induced forest conversion from fire are detected using the Landsat
satellite imagery and net emissions from these events are estimated using FullCAM.
Drivers of emissions and removals
The management of native vegetation and the majority of forest conversion processes in Australia
are governed by the Native Vegetation Framework, which is an intergovernmental agreement
among all levels of Australian government under the Council of Australian Governments (COAG).
Individual jurisdictions implement the national Native Vegetation Framework commitments in
accordance with their own individual circumstances and land management practices and legislative
frameworks.
Examples of administrative processes include compliance with regional ecosystem plans
established under legislation, individually negotiated property management plans or additional
approval processes / permit processes for clearing. Permits for conversion of all forests to
grasslands for agriculture are required in the Northern Territory, Western Australia, Victoria, South
Australia and Tasmania, with minor exceptions. In Queensland and in New South Wales, the
processes are more complex.
Within this national Native Vegetation Framework, economic considerations remain important
drivers of the demand for forest conversion to alternative uses.
How much clearing?
Forest conversion has declined over time in Australia (Figure 5) since the peak clearing periods of
the 1970s. In 2013, an estimated 180 thousand hectares were cleared.
Figure 5 Forest Conversion, ha, Australia, 1990-2013
The decline in activity has mainly related to instances of first-time clearing of mature forests. The
area subject to re-clearing of recently regrown forests has remained relatively steady over this
period (Figure 5).
26
Where does land clearing occur?
During the period 1990-2013 forest conversions occurred predominantly in Queensland and New
South Wales and to a lesser extent in Western Australia. The locations of forest conversion events
detected between 1990 and 2013 are displayed in Figure 6.
Figure 6 Spatial distribution of Forest Conversion events, Australia, 1990-2013
Overall, emissions from forest conversion have declined significantly over time (Figure 7).
27
Figure 7 Net emissions from Forest conversion, Australia, 1990-2013
Economic considerations remain important to understanding forest conversion outcomes within the
operation of the national native vegetation framework and associated regulatory regimes. As
illustrated in Figure 8, there is a strong relationship between the farmers’ terms of trade and land
clearing. The data also indicate a lag of approximately one year in the relationship. Typically, an
increase (or decrease) in the farmers’ terms of trade is followed by a corresponding increase (or
decrease) in land clearing around one year later.6
Figure 8 Forest conversion and farmers’ terms of trade, Australia, 1973–2013
Domestic regulatory effects can dominate certain periods of the time series. In 2004, for example,
the Queensland Government passed amendments to vegetation management regulations which
imposed certain restrictions on clearing from 2007 onwards. The effects of this policy change can
A linear least squares regression using yearly percentage changes in the land clearing area and the farmers’ terms of trade from 1974
to 2009, with a lag of one year, confirms that this relationship is statistically significant.
28
6
likely be seen in the drop in land clearing activity from 2007 onwards as well as the temporary
increase immediately prior, between 2004 and 2006, in anticipation of the introduction of the new
regulations (Figure 8).
Key projections assumptions and activity data
These projections assume no further changes to regulatory systems in place and do not consider
the effects of the Emissions Reduction Fund. Estimates include the effects of the Carbon Farming
Initiative.
Within the existing regulatory framework, underlying trends in emissions for direct human-induced
forest conversion to alternative land uses are largely determined by changes in economic
conditions and from observations of past activity.
Projections of emissions from direct human-induced Forest Conversion are undertaken using a
reduced form (Tier 2) version of the FullCAM model, as described above and in Department of the
Environment forthcoming.
Projections of the farmers’ terms of trade for the period 2015-2017 are from ABARES (2014d) and
held constant thereafter on the assumption that these values reflect long term equilibrium prices.
Additionally, recent regulatory reforms could be expected to place upward pressure on clearing
activity. The quantification of the effects of recent changes in regulations have been estimated by
expert judgement and have been modelled, inter alia, by rebasing the modelling start point to
reflect 2010 clearing levels.
Indirect human induced forest conversion from fire has been assumed to continue at long term
rates.
The projection assumes normal seasonal conditions.
Projection results
The trends in net emissions for two major elements of the UNFCCC classification Forest
conversion to other lands are given in Table 8 and Figure 9.
The implications of these trends for net emissions from lands that qualify for the Kyoto Protocol
classification Deforestation and for Grazing land Management are also provided.
For the Kyoto Protocol, the net emissions reported under Forest Conversion in 1990 will lead to the
issuance of Assigned Amount Units and net emissions reported in the accounting period under
Deforestation will result in assigned amount units (AAUs) being cancelled. The implication of the
net emissions reported under Grazing land Management for projected RMU credits is presented in
the Grasslands section of this paper.
29
Table 8 Forest conversions and Deforestation, Australia, 1990-2035
UNFCCC
classification
Forest
conversion
Kyoto Protocol classifications
Deforestation
Grazing land
and cropland
management
Total
Net emissions
Mt CO2-e / year
1990
136
-
-
136
2000
80
-
-
80
2008-12
52
49
4
52
2013-20
52
46
6
52
2020
54
47
7
54
2021-30
49
44
5
49
2030
47
42
4
47
2035
43
40
3
43
Figure 9 Forest conversion net emissions, Mt CO2-e, Australia, 1990-2035
2.2 Forest lands
Anthropogenic emissions and removals on forest lands result from changes in management
practices in forests and from changes in land use.
Disturbances to forest carbon stocks generate anthropogenic emissions and removals when
associated with human activities—in particular, management for wood and wood products;
management for the prevention of major natural disturbances (such as through prescribed burning)
and from activity to enhance forest carbon stocks.
Permanent changes in management practices can generate changes in the levels of soil carbon or
woody biomass stocks over the longer term.
30
These effects on the national inventory are transitory and not permanent and, after a time, the rate
of net emissions or removals associated with the changed management practice will approach
zero. Nonetheless, the medium term impacts on the national inventory can be significant.
Virtually all developed countries already account for forests against their national emission
reduction commitments. Australia has not done this and will only commence accounting for forests
for the first time under the Kyoto Protocol for the second commitment period, 2013-2020.
Forests are also subject to disturbances unrelated to forest management for wood products. The
other major human-induced disturbance in the inventory is from the conversion of forest to
alternative land uses. The majority of the net emissions associated with these management
changes are accounted for under Forest Conversion.
Disturbances affected by non-anthropogenic events or circumstances, such as significant wildfire,
are treated as natural disturbances. Only a portion of emissions and subsequent removals from
these disturbances are accounted for.
Net emissions from Forest land remaining Forest land are estimated to have been -12
million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2000 and are projected to be -27 million
tonnes in 2020 and - 21 million tonnes in 2035.
Classifications
Forest land remaining forest land in the UNFCCC classification system includes lands that, in situ,
contain vegetation with the potential that meet the criteria for a forest on a permanent basis. A
forest has vegetation at least 2 metres high and canopy coverage at least 20 per cent. Forests
include mangroves.
The Kyoto Protocol category Forest Management is a subset of Forest land remaining forest and
includes only those forests managed under a system of practices designed to support commercial
timber production such as harvest or silvicultural practices or practices that are designed to
implement specific sink enhancement activities.
More precisely, forests included under this definition are:

multiple use forests;7

plantations established prior to 1990 (that is, those plantations that do not qualify for
Afforestation/Reforestation);

privately managed native forest land where Forest Management activities (harvesting and
silvicultural practices) have been observed to occur; and

sink enhancement activities.
All forest lands outside of the Multiple Use Forests and pre-1990 plantations are monitored for
signs of harvesting and silvicultural practices in order to achieve complete accounting for these
management practices.
7
Publicly owned state forest, timber reserves and other forest areas on which a range of forest values is managed, including timber
harvesting, water supply, conservation of biodiversity, recreation and environmental protection. They are managed by state and territory
agencies in accordance with state/territory Acts and regulations. (MPIG, 2008).
31
If, as a result of these monitoring processes, a harvest event is observed, the net emissions are
reported under the Forest Management category and all future net emissions on that land continue
to be reported under that category.
If the human activity observed is a forest conversion to an alternative land use, then the net
emissions are reported under the Forest Conversion category and all future net emissions on that
land continue to be reported under that category.
Estimation of emissions and removals
Emissions and removals from Forest land and for Forest Management are estimated using
methods consistent with the 2013 Revised Supplementary Methods and Good Practice Guidance
for LULUCF Arising from the Kyoto Protocol (IPCC, 2014) in conjunction with the 2006 IPCC
Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC 2006).
In Australia’s national inventory, modelling of the effects of changes in management practices on
forest land is undertaken with a tier 2 version of the FullCAM model. The method is explained in
more detail in the National Inventory Report (Department of the Environment, forthcoming).
Natural disturbances
Wildfire is an important source of disturbance to forest carbon stocks. In Multiple Use Forests
alone wildfire could generate a fluctuating emission of up to 30 Mt CO2e a year in Australia.
Areas subject to fire in Multiple Use Forests are presented in Figure 10.
Figure 10 Area burned, Multiple Use Forests, 1990-2013
Source: Department of the Environment (forthcoming)
Under the Kyoto Protocol, it has been recognised that significant wildfire emissions can be beyond
the control of a country to manage in certain circumstances—as a result of non-anthropogenic
events such as extreme climatic events, for example.
Over the longer term, these fluctuations in emissions are balanced by regrowth of forests.
32
In the shorter term such fluctuations in net emissions caused by non anthropogenic events would
have significant implications for the management of national emission reduction commitments and,
therefore, it is desirable that these fluctuations in emissions are not included for this reason also.
The treatment of natural disturbances for Forest Management agreed for the Kyoto Protocol helps
to manage the risk of these non-anthropogenic fluctuations on net emissions from Forest
Management lands.
These significant fluctuations in net emissions from wildfire are excluded from the inventory as long
as certain technical safeguards and accounting rules are met and the process does not generate
an expectation of the creation of net credits or debits towards national emission reduction
commitments.
In this report, the natural disturbance provision has been applied to the effect of wildfire on net
emissions under the Kyoto Protocol classification Forest Management and also to the UNFCCC
classification Forest land remaining forest.
The application of the provision allows for a maximum level of wildfire emissions of 6 Mt CO2e in a
single year to enter Forest Management. The amount of removals from subsequent regrowth of
forests that enters the inventory is also restricted accordingly.
Other forests
The vast majority of Australian native forests are managed for purposes other than wood
production. These forests continue to be monitored for evidence of specified management
practices that would generate net emissions and which would also draw them into the Forest
Management activity. In the absence of this evidence, however, these forests sit outside the scope
of Forest Management.
Around 18 per cent of Australia’s native forests are to be found in conservation reserves. These
forests have sometimes been managed for timber in the past and the forest is still recovering from
these past harvesting disturbances. In the national inventory these forests are assumed to regrow
at long term growth rates depending on age and location.
The effects of fire on net emissions from conservation reserves are currently reported in the
national inventory, and these lands could potentially also be included within the scope of Forest
Management in the future.
Aggregate net emissions from projects managed under the Government’s Emissions Reduction
Fund
(and, formerly, the Carbon Farming Initiative) for sink enhancement in forests will also be included
under Forest Management.
In forests that occur in Australia’s savanna regions, non carbon dioxide emissions from prescribed
burning activity and other fires are reported under Agriculture while net carbon dioxide emissions
are reported under Grazing land Management. As these net carbon dioxide emissions occur on
forest lands, under the UNFCCC classifications these latter effects are reported under Forest land.
The remaining ‘Other’ forests are assumed to be mature and, unless disturbed by an observed
specified management practice or disturbance, remain at equilibrium carbon stock levels in the
inventory and in the projections.
Drivers of emissions and removals
The management of Australia’s forests is guided by the 1992 National Forest Policy Statement.
33
Net emission outcomes reflect the parameters agreed under the governing framework and
economic pressures from variations in the demand for Australian products.
Demand for Australian wood and wood products becomes critical to the long term projection for net
emission outcomes from Forest Management given the significant supplies from hardwood
plantations over the long term and the possibilities for at least limited substitution in supplies
between hardwood plantations and supplies from native forests.
This substitutability between hardwood plantations and native forests means that the projection for
net emissions from Forest land and from Land converted to forests (and between Forest
Management and Afforestation/Reforestation) are closely related.
Governing framework
As signatories to the National Forest Policy Statement, the Australian, state and territory
governments are committed to the sustainable management of all Australian forests, whether the
forest is on public or private land, or reserved or available for production.8
Harvesting in native forests in Australia is regulated both at the national and State level. Regional
Forest Agreements that address demand for timber production, the needs of forest-dependent
communities and conservation values were signed between 1997 and 2001. These agreements
were designed to support the management of forests for 20 years.
In 2013 the area of native forest managed as Multiple Use Forests was 9.25 million hectares. The
total amount of land that met the definition of Forest Management was 10.98 million hectares
(Table 9).
Table 9 Forest management land area9
Forest classification
Multiple Use Forests
12
Area (M ha)
9.25
Private harvested native forests
0.91
Pre-1990 plantations
0.82
Total
10.98
Demand and supply conditions for Australian wood products
Australian production reversed a long term upwards trend in 2008 and has declined in recent years
(ABARES, 2014a). Total production declined by 19 per cent in the five years since 2008 (Figure
11).
Demand factors such as the international price of harvested wood products, the value of the
Australian dollar and shifts in demand patterns, especially between Japan and China, have
contributed to the decline in harvesting. In particular international demand for Australian woodchips
declined sharply from 2011, prompted in part by reduced competitiveness due to the high
Australian dollar.
8
See the Department of Agriculture: http://www.agriculture.gov.au/forestry/policies/rfa.
The area of land falling into the Forest Management classification can increase over time due to the re-classification of land tenure
(e.g. Multiple Use Forests) or additional areas of privately owned native forests become subject to forest management activities. Under
the Kyoto Protocol reporting framework Forest Management land can be re-classified as Deforestation if Deforestation is observed to
occur.
9
34
There are signs, however, that demand for Australian wood and wood products is again on the
increase.
Recent trade data for the year from July 2013 show a 33 per cent rise in the value of hardwood
woodchip exports from the preceding year due to increased volumes (ABARES, 2014c). ABARES
also report that wood export volumes reached a record high in the 2013-2014 financial year due to
declining Australian dollar and increasing demand in China.
Domestically, there has also been an increase in activity in the housing market in many capital
cities, and data from the ABS (ABS, 2014) indicates that the number of new dwellings approved
has risen for five months to October 2014, indicating that domestic demand for sawn timber is also
likely to rise in the short term.
Supply of wood products originates from three sources which has a bearing on whether net
emissions are classified as Forest Management or Afforestation/Reforestation.

hardwood plantations – largely planted since 1990 – net emissions from this source are
classified under Afforestation/Reforestation;

softwood plantations – largely planted prior to 1990 – net emissions from this source are
classified under Forest management; and

native forests - multiple use forests – net emissions from this source are classified under
Forest management.
35
Figure 11 Estimated volume of wood products supplied, Australia, 1990-2013
Source: ABARES (2014a)
Supply of wood products - hardwood plantation production / post 1990 plantations
The supply of wood products from hardwood plantations have risen over 1990-2013 (Figure 11).
These plantations were mostly planted under the incentive of tax concession schemes since 1990
(and therefore are classified as Land converted to forest and Afforestation/Reforestation).
Available forecasts suggest there is scope to significantly increase production from hardwood
plantations over the medium term. The forecast of plantation log supply for the period 2010-2054
by ABARES (2012) shows that the hardwood log supply available for harvesting in the 5 years
2010 to 2014 (10 M m3 yr-1) significantly exceeded actual production (5.5 M m3 in 2013) (Figure
12).
Total plantation hardwood supply is predicted by ABARES to increase to over 14 M m3 yr-1 in the
20202024 period before contracting in the five years to 2029 (although still greater than
11 M m3 yr-1) due to the age class of plantations and historical variations in the area planted.
One consequence of this supply situation is that grower intention surveys indicate that hardwood
plantations are less likely to be replanted than before. Nevertheless, this decline in re-planting is
unlikely to impact supplies of hardwood plantation supplies until at least the period 2024-2030.
Supply of wood products - softwood plantations / pre-1990 plantations
The supply of wood products from softwood plantations has remained relatively steady over 19902013. Harvesting has largely matched forecasted volumes (ABARES, 2012; and ABARES, 2014b)
and it is therefore not expected that there is significant capacity to increase supply from the
softwood plantation estate.
Supply of wood products - native forests
The supply of wood products from native forests has fallen over 1990-2013 (Figure 11). Hardwood
pulplog and woodchip supply from plantations has been displacing native forest production for
some years—but there will likely be limits to this substitution process.
36
Hardwood plantations produce mainly pulplogs (84 per cent of hardwood production in 2013,
compared to 11 per cent sawlogs) (ABARES, 2014b) whereas harvesting of native forests
produces both saw and veneer logs as well as pulplogs (51 per cent and 44 per cent in 2013,
respectively, with saw and veneer log production exceeding pulplog production for the first time in
2012) (ABARES, 2014a). As a result, increasing supply from plantation hardwood is likely have a
more limited impact on native forest harvesting for saw and veneer logs.
Key projections assumptions and activity data
These projections assume no further changes to regulatory systems in place and do not consider
the effects of the Emissions Reduction Fund. Estimates include the effects of the Carbon Farming
Initiative.
Assumptions about key economic variables are provided by the Centre for International Economics
(CIE, 2015).
Demand for Australian saw and veneer log production is assumed to recover to recent
consumption levels in the next few years and then to increase consistent with long term growth
rates at 0.5 per cent per year.
Pulpwood production is assumed to be driven by forecast plantation supply. Hardwood plantation
pulp log production is assumed to substitute production from native forests, with a lower bound on
native forest pulp log production controlled by the volume harvested as secondary product of
harvesting for saw and veneer logs.
Planting rates for post 1990 plantations are assumed to continue at the historically low rates
observed since 2011-12 (ABARES, 2014b).
Available supplies of wood and wood products and estimates of net emissions were developed
using projections of the FullCAM tier 2 model as described in Department of the Environment
(forthcoming).
The tier 2 model is based on a series of 46 plot files drawn from within the FullCAM Tier 3
modelling framework. The selected plot files are representative of the most common species and
management regimes within each state and National Plantation Inventory (NPI) region. The area
represented in each NPI region by each plot was determined from the land sector remote sensing
program.
Harvesting rates for softwood and hardwood plantations are determined by the standard rotation
lengths for each species.
Net emissions from wildfire on Forest Management land are assumed to equal the background net
emission level included in the Forest Management Reference Level (and, therefore, are assumed
to have a neutral impact in this projection).
The rate of net removals by forests in conservation reserves is assumed to be unchanged
throughout the historical and projection period.
The level of prescribed burning for wildfire management is assumed to continue at the levels
calculated for the reference level.
The level of stock removed from forests for fuelwood is also assumed to continue at reference level
rates.
37
Forest lands not under Forest management or subject to a Forest conversion event are assumed
to experience historical levels of natural disturbance such that net emissions for these lands occur
at long run average levels for the projection period. Data for the national inventory, 1990-2013,
have been estimated using the natural disturbance provision.
Projections results
The trends in net emissions for three major elements of the UNFCCC classification Forest land
remaining forest are given in Table 10. The implication of these trends for net emissions from lands
that qualify for the Kyoto Protocol classification Forest Management is also provided. The
combined Forest land remaining forest and Land converted to forest trend is shown in Figure 12.
The implication of the net emissions reported under Forest Management lands for the RMU credits
projected to be issued under Forest Management and Afforestation/Reforestation is presented in
Table 11, highlighting the synergies that exist between the two categories.
38
Table 10 Forest land and Forest Management net emissions 1990-2035
UNFCCC classification
Forest lands
Forest
Management
lands
Conservation
Reserves
Kyoto
Protocol
Classification
Prescribed
and wildfire
Total
Forest
Management
Net emissions
Net
emissions
Mt CO2-e / year
Mt CO2-e /
year
1990
-17
-18
-3
-38
-17
2000
-2
-18
8
-12
-2
2008-12
-9
-18
11
-16
-9
20132020
-17
-18
7
-28
-17
2020
-15
-18
6
-27
-15
2021-30
-7
-19
6
-19
-7
2030
-8
-19
6
-20
-8
2035
-9
-19
6
-21
-9
Figure 12 Forest land and Land converted to forest, net emissions, 1990-2035
39
Table 11 Forest Management and Afforestation/Reforestation: actual and projected
RMU net credits 2008-2020
Afforestation /
Reforestation
Forest Management
Total
Mt CO2-e / year
2008-12
-22
n.a.
-22
2013-2020
-8
-15
-23
2.3 Land conversion to forest
Anthropogenic emissions and removals on Land converted to forest land result primarily from
changes in land use but also result from changes in management practices over time.
Once established, Land converted to forest is subject to the same pressures from disturbances
and changes in management practices as Forest land remaining forest land.
Like Forest land remaining forest land, disturbances to forest carbon stocks on Land converted to
forest land generates anthropogenic emissions and removals from human activities – in particular,
management for wood and wood products; management for the prevention of major natural
disturbances (such as through prescribed burning) and from activity to enhance carbon stocks.
As with Forest land, permanent changes in management practices generate changes in the levels
of woody biomass stocks over the longer term.
The national inventory does not record the new carbon stock levels directly, but it is affected during
the transition from one carbon stock level to another from changes in the flow of carbon to and
from the land.
The effect on the national inventory from enhanced removals is not permanent and, after a time, as
these forests reach maturity, the rate of removals associated with the conversion to forest will
approach zero.
These forests are also subject to other disturbances. The other major human-induced disturbance
is from the conversion of forest to alternative land uses. The net emissions associated with these
management changes are accounted for under Forest Conversion.
Net emissions from Land converted to forest in 2000 are estimated to be - 12 million tonnes
of carbon dioxide equivalent and are projected to be - 1 million tonnes in 2020 and - 9
million tonnes in 2035.
Classifications
The UNFCCC classification Land converted to forest land includes land converted from an
alternative use, like grassland, to a forest.
The forests under Land converted to forest land may be established through planting events either
for commercial timber or for other reasons, known as ‘environmental plantings’, or by regeneration
from natural seed sources on lands regulated for the protection of forests.
The Kyoto Protocol classification Afforestation/Reforestation is a subset of Land converted to forest
land and includes only those forests established since 1 January 1990 on land that was clear of
forest on 31 December 1989.
40
Forests established prior to 1990, such as in a plantation, are accounted for under Forest
Management. Net emissions from forests that have regenerated from natural seed sources in
areas of grasslands not regulated for the protection of forests (unless they are managed under the
support of a government program) are assumed to have not undergone a change in land use and
are not included within Land converted to forest land.
Estimation of emissions and removals
Emissions and removals from Land converted to forest land and from Afforestation/Reforestation
are estimated using methods consistent with the 2013 Revised Supplementary Methods and Good
Practice Guidance for LULUCF Arising from the Kyoto Protocol (IPCC, 2014) in conjunction with
the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 2006).
In the national inventory, modelling of the effects of changes in management practices is
undertaken with the FullCAM model at a fine spatial disaggregation and is explained in more detail
in the National Inventory Report (Department of the Environment, forthcoming).
For plantations, the modelling methods and calibration were published in peer reviewed literature
(Waterworth et al, 2007; Waterworth and Richards, 2008).
The plantations model takes into account the age, plantation type, management and site conditions
to estimate emissions and removals. The native forest regrowth model is supplemented to include
functions that represent Type 1 and Type 2 growth responses (Snowdon and Waring, 1984) and
the impact of using non-endemic species (Department of the Environment, forthcoming). Type 1
management practices advance or retard stand development (effectively age) but do not increase
underlying site productivity over the life of the rotation (e.g. weed control at establishment). Type 2
treatments increase (or decrease) a site’s carrying capacity in the longer term (e.g. phosphorus
application).
As the carbon increment estimates are based on aboveground biomass, there is a need to correct
for the increment in belowground biomass (roots) to provide an estimate of total live biomass.
FullCAM calculates the partitioning using an empirical approach derived from expansion factors
reported in Snowdon et al. (2000) and Mokany et al. (2006). This method allows allocation to vary
between sites and species within set ranges based on age, site productivity and level of stand
development.
Studies of the carbon fractions of above and below ground biomass components for Australian
vegetation were used to provide the parameters for the carbon fractions of tree components in the
model (Gifford, 2000a and 2000b).
A comprehensive database of the plantation management practices used in Australia since 1970
has been implemented for each tree species within each region and then spatially and temporally
referenced to link to information on site productivity and previous land-use.
The turnover rate of leaves and fine roots affects both the amount of fine litter on the forest floor
and subsequently most of the contribution to soil carbon. Soil carbon is estimated using the fully
spatially explicit approach described in Department of the Environment (forthcoming) with some
modifications to the base input data to suit the modelling for post-1990 plantations.
The model for environmental plantings and mallee plantings is based on a CSIRO report
commissioned by the Department of the Environment to gather biomass data for mallee eucalypt
and native mixed species plantings (mixed species environmental plantings) for the purpose of
calibrating the FullCAM model for these planting types.
41
This project involved the collection and screening of data from a range of sources and to collect
high precision measurements of biomass through destructive sampling. In addition to this work,
CSIRO analysed the collected data and specified a new set of statistically valid FullCAM growth
parameters for mixed species environmental plantings and mallee eucalypt plantings (CSIRO,
2013).
The model for regeneration of forests from natural seed sources is based on modelling of native
forest regrowth using FullCAM default parameters for native forests.
Drivers of emissions and removals
Plantations for timber
The key drivers of Afforestation/Reforestation removals are the rate of plantation establishment
since 1990
(see Figure 13) and spatial variables relating to soil and climate.
The rate of plantation establishment experienced a large expansion during 1990-2005 in response,
in part, to incentives for plantation establishment such as the taxation treatment of Managed
Investment Schemes. Most new plantations were hardwood plantations. In recent years, very low
plantings have been observed caused by perceptions of oversupply and the dampened demand
conditions for forest products.
Figure 13 Annual area of new plantings 1990-2013
Source: Department of the Environment
National aggregate removals were highest in the period 2010-11 (Figure 15) due to the lag of
several years between planting and the maximum rate of removals by newly established
plantations.
In the last few years, however, net removals have reached a turning point and have begun to
diminish as the trees planted in early years pass their maximum growth rates and as increased
harvest rates begin to dominate the trend.
Figure 14 Annual net emissions from Land converted to forest 1990-2013
42
Source: Department of the Environment
Environmental plantings
In addition to commercial timber plantings, new forests may be planted for other, environmental,
purposes.
These plantings are largely fostered and incentivised by numerous government programs and
regulatory approaches operating within Australia’s Native Vegetation Framework, released in
December 2012. The Native Vegetation Framework guides native vegetation management across
the Australian landscape.10
Programs and regulatory approaches that encourage environmental plantings include The 20
Million Trees Program, the Green Army Program and offsets created under State vegetation
management acts or major project approval processes. The Emissions Reduction Fund will also be
able to be used to encourage these outcomes.
Regeneration from natural seed sources
The regeneration of forests from natural seed sources are identified in areas consistent with the
intentions of land use regulatory systems and reflect the deliberate decisions of land managers to
not maintain pasture for grazing. To qualify as a forest land converted from natural seed sources,
the land:

must have been clear of forest in the period 1972-1989; and

must have converted to forest land after 1 January 1990.
These conversions can be supported through a range of government programs and regulatory
processes including from offsets created under State vegetation management acts or under major
project approval processes. In future, the Emissions Reduction Fund will also be able to be used to
encourage these outcomes.
An additional 2.18 million hectares of naturally regenerating forests have been identified and are
included in the Land converted to forest land classification.
See ‘Australia’s Native Vegetation Framework’, Department of the Environment:
http://www.environment.gov.au/land/publications/australias-native-vegetation-framework.
10
43
Net emissions from these lands are reported under the UNFCCC classification Land converted to
forest land.
Under the Kyoto Protocol, the net emissions on these lands are classified as
Afforestation/Reforestation.
Over the projection period the removals associated with these forests are estimated to be
3 Mt CO2 per year, equivalent to a growth rate of approximately 1.5 t CO2 per hectare per year.
This is a low rate of annual growth as this vegetation will be largely regenerating in water limited
environments of inland regions.
Wildfire
The natural disturbances provision of the Kyoto Protocol applies to Afforestation/Reforestation
lands and, in this paper, it is also assumed to apply to Land converted to forest lands.
Key projections assumptions and activity data
Key assumptions for the projections have been identified in the Forest lands section.
Projection results
The trends in net emissions for three major elements of the UNFCCC classification Land converted
to forest are given in Table 12.
The implication of these trends for net emissions from lands that qualify for the Kyoto Protocol
classification Afforestation/Reforestation is also provided.
The implication of these results for the projected RMU credits to be issued under
Afforestation/Reforestation was presented in Table 11.
44
Table 12 Land converted to forest and Afforestation/Reforestation, net emissions,
1990-2035
UNFCCC classifications
Land
converted
to forest
Land
Land
directly
converted
converted to forest
pre-1990
(plantings) to forest
(natural
seed
sources)
Kyoto Protocol classification
Total
Afforestation
/
Reforestation
Total
Net emissions
Mt CO2-e / year
1990
1
0
0
1
1
1
2000
-10
-1
-1
-12
-12
-12
Average
2008-12
-16
0
0
-16
-15
-15
Average
2013-2020
-6
-3
0
-9
-9
-9
2020
1
-3
0
-2
-2
-2
Average
2021-2030
-3
-3
0
-6
-5
-5
2030
-2
-3
0
-5
-5
-5
2035
-7
-3
0
-10
-10
-10
2.4 Crop lands
Anthropogenic emissions and removals on croplands occur as a result of changes in management
practices on cropping lands, from changes in crop type—particularly woody crops—and from
changes in land use.
Management practices that lead to additional biomass being available for input into the soil, or
which slow the rate of carbon loss from the soil, can lead to better carbon outcomes on the land
than would otherwise be the case.
Permanent changes in management practices generate changes in the levels of soil carbon or
woody biomass stocks over the longer term.
The national inventory does not record the new carbon stock levels directly, but it is affected during
the transition from one carbon stock level to another from changes in the flow of carbon to and
from the land.
These effects on the national inventory are transitory and are not permanent and, after a time (25
years), the rate of net emissions or removals in the national inventory associated with the changed
management practice will approach zero.
Nonetheless, the impacts of changes in practices on the national inventory can be significant.
45
The United States, Canada and the European Union all currently account for soil carbon against
their national emission reduction commitments.
Classifications
Crop lands in the UNFCCC classification system are lands where the system of practices in which
agricultural crops are grown and on land that is set-aside or temporarily not being used for crop
production.
Net emissions due to changes in management practices on Crop lands are estimated to
have been
-9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2000 and are projected to be 3 million
tonnes in 2020 and 1 million tonnes in 2035.
The cropland category includes continuous cropping lands, lands which are cropped in rotation
with pastures as well as lands with woody perennial crops such as orchards or olive groves.
Net emissions from the conversion of grass to crop land are included under this category.
Net emissions from the conversion of forest to cropland have been included under the Forest
Conversion category.
The land under Cropland management under the Kyoto Protocol is the same as Crop land under
the UNFCCC classification.
Anthropogenic emissions and removals from Cropland management are estimated from changes
in specified management practices including:

total cropping area;

crop type and rotation (including pasture leys);

stubble management, including burning practices;

tillage techniques;

fertiliser application and irrigation;

application of green manures (particularly legume crops);

soil ameliorants (application of manure, compost or biochar) as well as from

changes in land use.
Carbon dioxide emissions from the application of lime are reported under Agriculture. Nitrous oxide
emissions from the application of fertiliser are also reported under Agriculture.
Estimation of emissions and removals
Emissions and removals from crop land activities are estimated using methods consistent with the
2013 Revised Supplementary Methods and Good Practice Guidance for LULUCF Arising from the
Kyoto Protocol (IPCC, 2014) in conjunction with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National
Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 2006).
According to the IPCC, in all cases, the aim of the estimation processes is to identify and report
trends and systematic changes in the carbon stocks resulting from changes in management
practices over time. More explicitly, countries are encouraged to use higher tier methods to
46
develop emissions coefficients or models to represent the effects of management practices rather
than those of inter-annual variability and natural disturbances on carbon stocks.11
Management practice change has been monitored using the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS)
Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS), which surveyed 33 000 of Australia’s 135 000
agricultural businesses (funded by the Department of Agriculture). Data from the ABS agricultural
censuses (which surveyed all agricultural businesses) have been used with data from the 2007–08
and 2009–10 ARMS to track trends in management practices.
Modelling of the effects of changes in management practices on cropland is undertaken with the
FullCAM model and is explained in more detail in the National Inventory Report (Department of the
Environment, forthcoming).
Drivers of emissions and removals
The national inventory reports estimates of emissions and removals from changes in management
practices on cropland.
The ABS data on management practices show that there have been widespread changes in
farming practices across Australia’s agricultural lands in the period since 1990. In particular, there
has been a significant increase in the area under crops (Figure 15) as well as shifts towards low
tillage techniques (Figure 16) and changes to stubble management (Figure 17).
Shifts in management practice across the agricultural lands reflect international trends and have
been fostered by government-funded research, extension and information programs. For example,
the Department of Agriculture has previously approved $448 million for projects to improve land
management practices on farm and to provide information about land management practices that
help to improve soil condition.
11
The IPCC 2014 supplementary guidance provides a number of examples of appropriate statistical techniques are provided on how to
achieve this. In this report, two simulations of the FullCAM model are undertaken to isolate the impact of human activity on emissions –
one simulation with changes in management practices and one with management practices held constant at 1990 levels. The
difference between the two time series is accounted for. This makes the estimate of soil carbon emissions analogous to how emissions
of nitrous oxide from fertiliser application are already calculated. This approach also reduces the risks associated with having an
unusually “wet” base year or “dry” condition during the commitment period. It also provides greater consistency between Parties as it
brings the higher tier methods into alignment with the Tier 1 and Tier 2 methods by controlling for the impacts of the white noise
associated with climate variability.
47
Figure 15 Cropland area 1970 – 2013
Source: ABS yearbooks
Figure 16 Cropland area subject to no-till management 1970 – 2013
48
Figure 17 Cropland area subject to types of stubble management, 1970 – 2013
Source:
DoE modelling (FullCAM) of original data from Australian Bureau of Statistics (2000, 2002, 2008, 2013), Llewellyn and
D’Emden (2009) and Llewellyn et al. (2012).
Key projections assumptions, methods and activity data
These projections assume no further changes to regulatory systems in place and do not consider
the effects of the Emissions Reduction Fund.
The area under cropping is assumed to increase consistent with the outlook for projected
increases in agricultural crop production (CIE, 2015).
Management practices on croplands are held constant at current levels throughout the projection
period—the most important being the area of stubble management and reduced tillage techniques.
Normal seasonal conditions are assumed. Climate signals are factored out as far as possible in
order to isolate the effects of changes in human management practices since 1990 on net
emissions from cropland management.
Projection results
The trends in net emissions for the UNFCCC classification Crop lands are given in Table 13.
The implication of these trends for net emissions from lands that qualify for the Kyoto Protocol
classification Cropland Management is also provided in Table 13.
The implication of these results for the projected RMU credits to be issued under Cropland
Management is presented in Table 4.
49
Table 13 Crop land and Crop Management net emissions, 1990-2035
UNFCCC classification
Kyoto Protocol
classification
Crop lands
Crop land management
Net emissions
Mt CO2-e / year
1990
0
0
2000
-9
-9
Average 2013 - 2020
-1
-1
2020
0
0
Average 2021-30
3
3
2030
2
2
2035
0
0
2.5 Grass lands
Anthropogenic emissions and removals on grasslands result from changes in management
practices on grass lands, particularly from changes in pasture, grazing and fire management;
changes in woody biomass elements and from changes in land use.
Management practices that lead to additional biomass being available for input into the soil, or
which slow the rate of carbon loss from the soil, can lead to better carbon outcomes on the land
than they would otherwise be.
Permanent changes in management practices generate changes in the levels of soil carbon or
woody biomass stocks over the longer term.
The national inventory does not record the new carbon stock levels directly, but it is affected during
the transition from one carbon stock level to another from changes in the flow of carbon to and
from the land.
These effects on the national inventory are transitory and are not permanent and, after a time (25
years), the rate of net emissions or removals associated with the changed management practice
will approach zero.
Nonetheless, in Australia, the effects of changes in management practices on net emissions
across grasslands can be significant.
The United States and the European Union also currently account for soil carbon against their
national emission reduction commitments.
Net emissions from changes in management practices under Grass lands are estimated to
have been 2 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent in 2000 and are projected to be 2
million tonnes in 2020 and 5 million tonnes in 2035.
50
Classifications
Grass land in the UNFCCC classification system includes lands with vegetation that does not meet
the criteria for a forest and is not land classified as crop, wet or other land.
Under the Kyoto Protocol, Grazing Land Management is the system of practices on land used for
livestock production aimed at manipulating the amount and type of vegetation and livestock
produced.
Grazing land management lands include grasslands.
Anthropogenic emissions and removals from Grass lands and Grazing land management are
estimated from changes in specified management practices including:

the area under grasslands;

pasture management from fertilisers, irrigation and other inputs and seed selection;

the area of grassland under grazing;

changes in grazing intensity;

woody biomass management; and

fire management.
The effects of fire management from prescribed burning and other fires on Australia’s savanna
lands that are lands that also meet the definition of forest are incorporated under Grazing land
Management. As these emissions occur on forest lands they are also reported under Forest lands
under the UNFCCC classification system. Non carbon dioxide emissions from these fires are
reported under the Agriculture sector of the Projections report and are not included here.
Estimation of emissions and removals
Emissions and removals from Grass lands and from Grazing land management activities are
estimated using methods consistent with the 2013 Revised Supplementary Methods and Good
Practice Guidance for LULUCF Arising from the Kyoto Protocol (IPCC, 2014) in conjunction with
the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 2006).
Countries are encouraged to use higher tier methods to develop emissions coefficients or models
to represent the effects of management practices rather than those of inter-annual variability and
natural disturbances on carbon stocks.12
As with croplands, management practice change has been monitored using the Australian Bureau
of Statistics’ (ABS) Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS).
Estimates of the area under grassland are determined using Landsat satellite data in conjunction
with ABARES land use information. Estimates of the area under grazing are determined from ABS
data.
12
The IPCC (2014) supplementary guidance provides a number of examples of appropriate statistical techniques are provided on how
to achieve this. In this report, two simulations of the FullCAM model are undertaken to isolate the impact of human activity on emissions
– one simulation with changes in management practices and one with management practices held constant at 1990 levels. The
difference between the two time series is accounted for. This makes the estimate of soil carbon emissions analogous to how emissions
of nitrous oxide from fertiliser application are already calculated. This approach reduces the risks associated with having an unusually
“wet” base year or “dry” condition during the commitment period. It also provides greater consistency between Parties as it brings the
higher tier methods into alignment with the Tier 1 and Tier 2 methods by controlling for the impacts of the white noise associated with
climate variability.
51
Estimation of the effects of changes in management practices on carbon stocks is undertaken with
the FullCAM model and is explained in more detail in the National Inventory Report (Department of
the Environment forthcoming).
Within grasslands, changes in the area of woody vegetation associated with changes in
management practices are routinely monitored using data from the Landsat satellite data archives.
Applying the techniques learned from forest cover mapping, a national mapping program is used to
assess both the extent, and changes in extent, of sparse woody vegetation.
Estimates of area burned are determined from AVHRR imagery available from Landgate. The
aspects of fire management practices modelled in the national inventory include the seasonality
and the frequency of burning.
Methods for the estimation of net emissions from changes in woody biomass and from fire
management within savannas are given in the National Inventory Report (Department of the
Environment, forthcoming).
Drivers of emissions and removals
Activity data on management practices from the ABS show that there have been widespread
changes in pasture management practices across Australia’s agricultural lands in the period since
1990, for example, from improved pasture through fertiliser application.
Shifts in management practice across the agricultural lands have been fostered by governmentfunded research, extension and information programs. For example, the Department of Agriculture
has previously approved $448 million for projects to improve land management practices on farm
and to provide information about land management practices that help to improve soil condition.13
The international literature which underpins the 2013 Revised Supplementary Methods and Good
Practice Guidance for LULUCF Arising from the Kyoto Protocol (IPCC, 2014) and the 2006 IPCC
Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 2006), suggests that the impact of
grazing on emissions and removals from grazing land activities can be important. In this paper,
however, the net effects of changes in grazing pressures on carbon stocks have not been
estimated. The Department of the Environment will be conducting analysis of the available
empirical literature to underpin estimates of the effects of grazing for future updates of the national
inventory and projections.
Changes in woody biomass management
Within grasslands, as shown in Figure 18, the total area of sparse woody vegetation has remained
relatively constant over time with annual loss largely mirrored by annual gains. Net emissions from
these vegetation types approximate a steady state with relatively small variations over the longer
term.
See ‘Reporting on trends in improved land management practices’, Department of Agriculture: http://www.agriculture.gov.au/naturalresources/soils/reporting-on-trends-in-improved-land-management-practices
13
52
Figure 18 Annual transitions between sparse vegetation and non-woody land.
Source: Department of the Environment estimates
Figure 19 Spatial distribution of the frequency of fires across Australia
Source: Department of the Environment
Changes in fire management
Net emissions from fire management are affected by the seasonality and frequency of burning. The
frequency of fire across Australia’s grasslands is mapped in Figure 19. Future trends in emissions
will be influenced by changes in management practices and, for example, methods have already
been developed for the Carbon Farming Initiative in this field.
53
Key projections assumptions, methods and activity data
These projections assume no further changes to regulatory systems in place and do not consider
the effects of the Emission Reduction Fund.
Management practices on grasslands are held constant at current levels throughout the projection
period - the most important being the area of improved pasture.
The area converted from grass to cropping is assumed to increase in line with the outlook for
projected increases in agricultural crop production (CIE, 2015).
No changes in grazing practices are assumed.
The effects of fire management on woody biomass stocks in Australia’s grasslands are modelled
assuming no changes in the seasonality and frequency of fire.
The net conversion of grassland to sparse woody grassland is assumed to be zero.
Normal seasonal conditions are assumed. Climate signals are factored out as far as possible in
order to isolate the effects of changes in human management practices since 1990 on net
emissions from Grazing land management.
Projection results
The trends in net emissions for major elements of the UNFCCC classification Grassland and
Grazing land Management are given in Table 14.
The implication of these trends for net emissions from lands that qualify for the Kyoto Protocol
classification Grazing land Management is also provided and shown in Table 14.
The implication of these results for the projected RMU credits to be issued under Grazing land
Management, along with those from Cropland Management is presented in Table 4.
54
Table 14 Grass and Grazing land management emissions 1990-2035
UNFCCC
classification
grassland
UNFCCC
Forest
Conversion
UNFCCC
Forest Land
Kyoto Protocol
Total
Pre-1990
conversion to
grassland
Fire
management
on savannas
Grazing land
management
Net emissions
Mt CO2-e / year
1990
-4
31
2
29
2000
2
6
2
10
Average 2008-12
-4
3
3
2
Average 2013-20
0
4
2
6
2020
2
4
2
8
Average 2021-30
3
3
2
8
2030
4
2
2
9
2035
5
2
2
8
2.6 Revegetation
Revegetation is the enhancement of vegetation that does not qualify for afforestation/reforestation
or grazing management. This category ensures that any project designed to enhance vegetation
no matter where its location may be counted towards the national target. For example, these
projects might occur in urban or wetland areas.
2.7 Wetland management
Wetlands potentially constitute a significant source of emissions, particularly of methane. Methods
to monitor and estimate emissions are still under development both internationally and
domestically.
Under the Kyoto Protocol, the inclusion of any wetlands activity in the coverage of national targets
was restricted to carbon dioxide emissions and removals from the drainage and re-wetting of
wetlands with organic soils. Australia has few organic soils and this activity has not been included
in the accounting for the second commitment period 2013-2020.
No data currently exist in the Australian inventory for emission sources in wetlands. Emissions
from the clearing of mangrove forests are one exception, which, because they meet the definition
of a forest, are included under Deforestation. Other sources currently not incorporated in the
national inventory include the management of seagrass and other coastal areas that do not meet
the definition of a forest or of a grassland.
In December 2013, the UNFCCC Conference of Parties adopted the use of the IPCC Guidance on
the estimation of emissions from Wetlands to be used by countries in their national inventories on a
voluntary basis from 2015.
No country has yet made a comprehensive assessment of their emissions from wetlands. The
Department of the Environment, however, is planning to develop methods and data to support the
monitoring of wetlands and to develop net emission estimates for these lands from 2017.
55
The Government will be able to give active consideration to the inclusion of this source of
emissions in the accounting towards the national target once sufficient experience with the
monitoring and estimation of emissions has been gained.
56
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