Title: “Accurate modeling of harvesting is key for projecting future forest dynamics: a case study in the Slovenian mountains”
Authors: Mina M. (marco.mina@usys.ethz.ch), Bugmann H., Klopcic M., Cailleret M.
Journal : Regional Environmental Change
Supplementary Material 2
Current and future climate scenarios
Daily temperature and precipitation data were obtained from the nearest E-OBS 0.25° grid point
(45° 37′ 30” N, 14° 22′ 30” E, elevation 877 m a.s.l.) for the period 1951-2011. Climate data
were processed in two successive steps. First, a 100-year time series with constant characteristics
was produced using the stochastic weather generator LARS-WG (Semenov and Barrow 1997). In
a second step, the program MTCLIM was used to derive climatic conditions for each stand
according to its elevation, slope and aspect (Thornton et al. 2000).
For assessing the effect of climate change on stand dynamics, we used outputs from two
Regional climate models (RCM) that projected future climate in the Slovenian region based on
the A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario (IPCC 2007), i.e. the DMI-HIRHAM5_ARPEGE and
HadRM3_HadCM3Q16 simulation runs, respectively, hereafter named scenario CC1 and CC2.
Season-specific delta values for future climate (2070-2100) were calculated taking baseline
climate as a reference (Table S2).
Fig S5. Climate diagrams for the Snežnik area (cf. Walter and Lieth (1960)) at low (600 m), medium ( 900
m) and high elevations (1200 m). Temperature and rainfall data are representative for the baseline period
1951-2011.
Table S2. Temperature and precipitation lapse rates per 1000 meters for the Snežnik area. The rates were
calculated from the E-OBS dataset surrounding the area.
Maximum
temperature
(°C)
Minimum
temperature
(°C)
Precipitation
(mm)
-6.15
-8.61
631.3
Table S3. Seasonal mean temperature (Mean T) and precipitation (Mean P) anomalies, together with
standard deviation of the seasonal mean (sd T, sd P) for future climate (2070-2100) compared with
reference scenario (1951-2011) along the elevation gradient in Snežnik (600, 900 and 1200 m a.s.l.). We
assumed monthly cross-correlations (rTP) to stay constant during climate change.
Scenario CC1
elevation
600
900
1200
Scenario CC2
variable
unit
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
Winter
Mean T
°C
+2.3
+3.7
+1.9
+1.9
+4.4
+5.0
+4.8
+5.4
sd T
°C
-0.1
+1.6
+0.9
+1.1
+0.0
+1.7
+0.5
+1.4
Mean P
%
-8.7
-31.8
-8.9
+1.0
-5.9
-30.5
-13.6
+8.0
sd P
%
+30.7
+77.7
+39.8
+13.0
+29.4
+64.4
+43.0
-12.6
rTP
-
-0.5
-0.3
0.1
0.1
-0.6
-0.4
-0.3
-0.3
Mean T
°C
+2.3
+3.7
+1.9
+2.0
+4.4
+5.0
+4.8
+5.4
sd T
°C
-0.1
+1.6
+0.9
+1.1
+0.0
+1.7
+0.5
+1.4
Mean P
%
-8.5
-31.3
-8.8
+1.0
-5.7
-30.0
-13.4
+7.9
sd P
%
+31.3
+80.5
+40.9
+12.3
+29.9
+66.4
+44.3
-13.9
rTP
-
-0.5
-0.3
0.1
0.1
-0.6
-0.4
-0.3
-0.3
Mean T
°C
+2.2
+3.7
+1.9
+1.9
+4.4
+5.0
+4.8
+5.4
sd T
°C
-0.1
+1.6
+0.9
+1.1
+0.0
+1.7
+0.5
+1.4
Mean P
%
-8.3
-30.9
-8.7
+0.9
-5.6
-29.4
-13.2
+7.8
sd P
%
+31.8
+83.2
+42.0
+11.7
+30.2
+68.3
+45.5
-15.1
rTP
-
-0.5
-0.3
0.1
0.1
-0.6
-0.4
-0.3
-0.3
References
IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007. Synthesis Report. A contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to
the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Geneva,
Switzerland
Semenov M, Barrow E (1997) Use of a stochastic weather generator in the development of climate change
scenarios. Climatic Change 35:397-414 doi:10.1023/a:1005342632279
Thornton PE, Hasenauer H, White MA (2000) Simultaneous estimation of daily solar radiation and
humidity from observed temperature and precipitation: an application over complex terrain in
Austria. Agr Forest Meteorol 104:255-271 doi:10.1016/s0168-1923(00)00170-2
Walter H, Lieth H (1960) Klimadiagramm-Weltatlas, von Heinrich Walter und Helmut Lieth. G. Fischer,
Jena