Adapted Future Landscapes-from aspiration to inspiration.
Meyer, W, Bryan, B, Lyle, G, McLean, J, Moon, T, Siebentritt, M, Summers, D & Wells, S.
University of Adelaide.
The ultimate aim of the South Australian NRM plan is for communities and individuals to take responsibility for natural resources and make sound, sustainable decisions, for sustainable
production and use of resources within natural limits and improved environmental resilience and condition. Using the Landscape Futures Analysis Tool (LFAT,) the current study utilised
three predicted climate scenarios, alongside a recent historic baseline (see table below) to assess climate change adaptability in two South Australian Natural Resource Management
regions; (Eyre Peninsula and South Australia Murray-Darling Basin.)
Predicted SA Climatic scenarios used by the current study to assess climate change adaptation potential
Predicted climatic
scenario.
S0- Recent historic.
S1- Mild.
S2- Moderate.
S3- Severe.
Estimated
timescale.
Present
+10 years
2030
2070
Temperature change
(°C.)
<+1
+1
+2
+4
Rainfall change (%.)
<-5
-5
-15
-25
Conc. Atmospheric CO2
(PPM.)
390
480
550
750
LFAT analysis revealed climate change adaptation in the Eyre Peninsula and South Australia Murray-Darling Basin
NRM regions is possible if land use changes are made and policy incentives are implemented to encourage land
use change.
LFAT analysis also demonstrated that:
 Agricultural opportunities in the region rested on the adoption of different management regimes or
changes in land use on soil types identified as being negatively impacted by climate change.
 In both study regions, conservation priorities became concentrated in more southern latitudes and higher
altitudes as warming and drying increased.
 A large gradient existed in carbon sequestration potential from drier to wetter areas, with economically
viable carbon plantings indicated only in wetter areas.
Projections were developed using regional spatial data
stored and subsequently displayed as Geographic
Information System (GIS) map layers. Based on feedback
from the engagement process, the principal indicators for
climate adaptation were based on the following components:
Agricultural productivity (Page 2):
-Eyre Peninsula NRM analysis used wheat crop yield as a
proxy for general agriculture/pasture. Approximations of
wheat yield were estimated by assessing soil structure,
water holding capacity and rooting depth.
Vulnerability of biodiversity (Page 3):
-Based on the predicted geographic range and distribution
(exposure,) the ability of selected species to disperse and
migrate to new geographic locations (adaptive capacity,) and
the likely impact of climate change on geographic range
(species sensitivity.) Results were presented as the
effectiveness of targeted conservation efforts aimed at
facilitating adaptation/migration in vulnerable native
species.
Carbon sequestration (Page 4):
-Based on forest productivity for homogenous hardwood
and multi-species environmental plantations over a
standardised 64 year simulation period. Oil Mallee; thought
to have potential as a drought resistant source of biofuel,
was modelled over a 6 year period.
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Agricultural productivity (Eyre Peninsula Wheat productivity):
Simulated average
Wheat yield (Kg/Ha.)
S1
S0



S1- Moderate increase in Wheat
production due to increased
temperature and CO2 and limited
reduction in rainfall.
S2- Projected climatic conditions for
2030 assuming significant mitigating
actions are taken; noticeable
reductions in yield in low rainfall
zones. Additional factors begin to
have an effect; coarser textured soils
retain higher yields compared to
finer soils.
S3- Large yield reductions across all
low rainfall areas. In medium rainfall
areas with coarse textured soil, yields
marginally increased whereas, areas
with fine soil showed 10-30% yield
reductions. In high rainfall areas, the
trend continued; with coarse soils
indicating 0-20% increase and fine
soils indicating a 0-20% decrease in
yield respectively.
The simulations suggested that the opportunities and options
available for climate change adaptation would vary across the
Eyre Peninsula and within low, medium and high rainfall
regions. Opportunities within the region were predicted to rest
on the adoption of different management regimes or changes in
land use on soil types identified as being negatively impacted by
climate change.
S2
S3
2
Biodiversity:
Spatial conservation priorities
for vulnerable species.
Eyre Peninsula NRM.
Top 5% priority.
90-95% priority.
80-90% priority.
60-80% priority.
Lowest 60% priority.
NRM boundary
SA Mainland.
SA Murray-Darling Basin NRM.

In both Eyre Peninsula and SA Murray-Darling Basin
conservation priorities became increasingly
concentrated in Southern latitudes and higher
altitudes; areas with typically lower average
temperatures and higher average rainfall.

The simulations did however reveal that targeting
vulnerable species did have an associated trade-off
between a focus on sensitive species and appropriate
representation of other species.
The results were thought to have significant practical
implications for conservation agencies, as they provide
an effective, quantitative, repeatable and geographically
transferable methodology to prioritise conservation and
restoration under climate change.
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
Carbon sequestration:


5
4
8
3
2
S0
S1
S2
S3
Climate scenario.
Hardwood plantation (EP)
Environmental plantation (EP)
Hardwood plantation (SAMDB)
Environmental plantation (SAMDB)
Mean Oil Mallee annual growth rate
(Tonnes/Ha)
Average annual carbon sequestration
(Tonnes CO2 -e/ha/year)
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Similar spatial patterns were observed across both study-site regions, with higher productivity and
carbon sequestration rates in areas of greater rainfall, typically the more Southern latitudes and higher
altitudes. Nonetheless, all three land uses displayed high spatial variability in both regional study areas.
Average carbon sequestration rates decreased substantially for hardwood plantations and
environmental plantations in the SA MBD under increased warming and drying with even more
substantial reductions in low rainfall areas (See left.)
Despite, on average, reductions in Oil Mallee growth rates and yield in both regions, areas with higher
rainfall totals indicated increased Oil Mallee productivity in the Eyre Peninsula. The lack of similar
increased yield patterns in wetter areas of the SA Murray-Darling Basin was attributed to likely
differences in soil type and depth (See below.)
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6
5
4
3
2
S0
S1
S2
S3
Climate scenario.
The results demonstrated the spatial variability of tree growth and carbon
sequestration. They highlighted the influence of water balance and soil type in
biomass production and thus the amount of carbon sequestration. This
interaction of water balance and soil type was shown to result in positive
outcomes from a warming and drying climate in localised areas. However, it
was clear that overall production would be reduced from increased warming
and drying.
The modelling also examined some of the trade-offs associated with different
targets. For example, trees grown purely for carbon (hardwood plantations)
had a higher yield than those plantings that also have some biodiversity benefit
(environmental plantings).
EP high productivity areas (wet)
EP average
SAMDB high producivity areas (wet)
SAMDB average
The design intent of LFAT was to make a vast amount of information
available in an easily accessible form. The authors concluded that the success
of such a tool was highly dependent on the willingness and receptiveness of
the regional planners and also, increasingly on the acceptance of regional
communities.
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