Figure S1: Forecast average March and August SST across the study region according to
three GCM approaches (7mod, CCSM and PCM) and two emission scenarios (Reference and
Policy)
Figure S2 Forecast change in spatial abundance between 2015 and 2100 for H. rubra
according to the CCSM-3, two emission scenarios (Reference and Policy) and three
modelling techniques: (i) ecological niche model (ENM); (ii) biophysical-ENM with an
upper critical thermal threshold above which fecundity is expected to decrease by more than
50% or 80%; and (iii) coupled niche-population model (NPM).
Figure S3 Forecast change in spatial abundance between 2015 and 2100 for H. laevigata
according to the CCSM-3, two emission scenarios (Reference and Policy) and three
modelling techniques: (i) ecological niche model (ENM); (ii) biophysical-ENM with an
upper critical thermal threshold above which the survival of 0-12 month individuals is
expected to decrease by more than 50 or 80%; and (iii) coupled niche-population model
(NPM).
Figure S4 Forecast change in spatial abundance between 2015 and 2100 for H. rubra
according to a PCM, two emission scenarios (Reference and Policy) and three modelling
techniques: (i) ecological niche model (ENM); (ii) biophysical-ENM with an upper critical
thermal threshold above which the survival of 0-12 month individuals is expected to decrease
by more than 50 or 80%; and (iii) coupled niche-population model (NPM).
Figure S5 Forecast change in spatial abundance between 2015 and 2100 for H. laevigata
according to the PCM, two emission scenarios (Reference and Policy) and three modelling
techniques: (i) ecological niche model (ENM); (ii) biophysical-ENM with an upper critical
thermal threshold above which the survival of 0-12 month individuals is expected to decrease
by more than 50 or 80%; and (iii) coupled niche-population model (NPM).
Figure S6 Forecast change in relative abundance of H. rubra and H. laevigata according to
three modelling approaches: (i) ecological niche model (ENM); (ii) biophysical-ENM with an
upper critical thermal threshold above which the survival of 0-12 month individuals is
expected to decrease by more than 50 or 80%; and (iii) coupled niche-population model
(NPM). Differences between modelling approaches are shown for CCSM-3 and two
greenhouse gas emission scenarios (Reference or Policy). See methods for further details.
Figure S7 Harvest catch (tonnes) for H. rubra and H. laevigata according to three GCM
approaches (7-mod, CCSM and PCM) and two emission scenarios (Reference and Policy).
Note that catch rates are shown for only females. See methods for further details.