Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan
"National Center of State Scientific and Technical Expertise" JSC
REPORT
of optimistic scenario of
“Safe, clean and efficient power engineering” directions development in
Kazakhstan till 2030, developed in the framework of the system analysis and
forecasting in science and technology
Almaty, 2013
Contributors to the abstract
Coordinator of the expert group on the subject “Safe,
Clean and Efficient Power engineering”, Deputy
Chairman of the “Kazakh Research Institute of Power
engineering named after academician Sh. Chokin”, JSC,
D.Eng.Sc.
M.B. Koshumbayev
The Chairman of the expert group on the subject “Safe,
Clean and Efficient Power engineering”, Vice-principal
on NR and MS AUEandS, Cand.Sc.
V.V. Stoyak
The Expert of the expert group on the subject “Safe,
Clean and Efficient Power engineering”, Head of "Heat
power engineering" Department of L.N. Gumilyov
Eurasian National University, Cand.Sc.
S.A. Glazyrin
The Expert of the expert group on the subject “Safe,
Clean and Efficient Power engineering”, Director of the
V.Y. Melnikov
The Expert of the expert group on the subject “Safe,
Clean and Efficient Power engineering”
N.S. Tokmoldin
The Expert of the expert group on the subject “Safe,
Clean and Efficient Power engineering”
R. I. Lysenko
The Expert of the expert group on the subject “Safe,
Clean and Efficient Power engineering”
B.K. Myrzakulov
Results of the first stage of researches on the "System Analysis and Forecasting in the
Sphere of Science and Technology" project of the "Safe, Clean and Efficient Power Engineering"
direction are considered. The main objective of researches on a subject – on the basis of analytical
and expert works to prepare target recommendations on development of science and technologies
in the Republic of Kazakhstan for the period till 2030.
Works on this scenario included the analysis of scientific and technical information,
reports of government bodies, analytical reports of the leading domestic and international
research organizations, consulting companies such as the Big Four, carrying out database and
patent searches and studying of the data provided by the industrial enterprises. Discussion of
results was carried out within expert panels. Identification of external and internal trends of
science and technologies development in the "Safe, Clean and Efficient Power Engineering"
direction, definition of the key factors and their interrelations having impact on future
development, identification of strengths and weaknesses, and also definition of opportunities and
threats from environment became result of works. Competences of Kazakhstan in the field of
R&D are considered, strategy and a complex of actions for development of the direction are
offered, the potential risks connected with implementation of this scenario are defined.
I. Global challenges, trends, and factors of development
II. Kazakhstan trends and factors
III. Key trends and factors for development of "Safe, Clean and Efficient Power Engineering"
direction
IV. Analysis of cross impact of factors
V. Analysis of future markets in the world and Kazakhstan
VI. Analysis of sector development strategy in the world
VII. Analysis of power engineering sector development strategy in Kazakhstan
VIII. Analysis of R&D (directions, structure of financing) in the world, identification of the
leading countries
IX. Analysis of Kazakhstan competences in the field of R&D
X. Strategy of actions for the scenario implementation
XI. "Wildcards"
XII. Risks and threats at the scenario implementation
XIII. Long list of products and services in the "Safe, Clean and Efficient Power Engineering"
direction
XIV. List of key products and services in the "Safe, Clean and Efficient Power Engineering"
direction
XV "Green" economy
XVI "Green" energy
3
Introduction
The main objective of researches consisted in development of target recommendations on
development of science and technologies in the Republic of Kazakhstan for the period till 2030
on the basis of analytical and expert works.
The offered scenario of the "Safe, Clean and Efficient Power Engineering" direction
development in Kazakhstan till 2030 (hereinafter – the Scenario) is based on the forecast of
moderate development of world economy over an extended period of time with the possible
periods of short-lived recession (world GDP growth of 1-2%, growth of developing countries – 46%). The scenario assumes steady development of the Republic of Kazakhstan economy that will
allow progressively enter into operation new energy and production capacities, focus on new
resource-saving technologies, taking into account achieved demand for steel products and gives
opportunity of transition of the enterprises to "green" economy and sustainable development.
Development of the Scenario was carried out with use of approaches of the technological
forecasting assuming application of various techniques, including expert polling method, mutual
influences analysis, scenario planning, expert panels, development of "road maps", scanning of
sources and extrapolation of trends. The majority of forecasting methods ignore uncertainties,
being focused on limited scope of a phenomenon or influence. In turn, scenario planning
considers risks and restrictions, weak signals and the "wildcards" inherent in development of
trends at conceptualization of the future, allowing to react to all possible situations flexibly. This
technique is widely used in the conditions of uncertainty and quickly changing environment that
allows considering the hidden aspects of development of the future. The method of scenarios is
applied now by strategists of large corporations and government structures in the USA and
Europe and other countries.
Development of the Scenario included the analysis of scientific and technical information,
reports of government bodies, analytical reports of the leading domestic and international
research organizations, consulting companies such as the Big Four, carrying out database and
patent searches and studying of the data provided by the industrial enterprises. Identification of
external and internal trends of science and technologies development in the "Safe, Clean and
Efficient Power Engineering" direction, definition of the key factors and their interrelations
having impact on future development, identification of strengths and weaknesses, and also
definition of opportunities and threats from environment became result of works. Competences of
Kazakhstan in the field of R&D are considered, strategy and a complex of actions for
development of the direction are offered, and the potential risks connected with implementation
of this Scenario are defined.
Intersectoral interaction and complex of the integrated knowledge allow revealing the
main trend as direct link of power engineering and environment, internal elements of the energy
market, direct influence of other sectors of economy, including automation and ICT on power
engineering. The second trend is the close integration of the energy and automobile markets
caused by introduction of electric cars and concepts of e-mobility which served as incentive for
development of new energy supplies, systems of storage, transfer and distribution of energy,
chargers, as well as ways of integration of "mobility" technologies to the concept of "smart
house". New power technologies have emerged in water supply sector. They are connected with
water purification, engineering procedures management, automation and creation of new control
and measuring equipment.
4
VISUALIZATION OF THE IMAGE OF THE FUTURE
Development of power engineering in Kazakhstan will be based on the accepted key factors
and its visualization in the future will represent the key goods and services received on the basis
of critical technologies. The main directions of visualization are given in Picture 1.
Installation with combinedcycle engine
Gas turbine power
station
Combined-cycle
power plants
Installation with smartcontrol
Gas turbine and piston
engines
Wind turbine with
concentrator
Biocomplexes
Polygeneration installation
Non-pressure and
low-pressure directflow water turbines
Combined energy
complexes
Uranium pills, isotopes,
radiation sources
Safe nuclear
reactor
Industrial heat pumps
Vortex wind turbine
Safe nuclear technologies
Solar concentrators
Boilers with boiling and spouted bed
High-octane components
of oil
External combustion
engines
Non-waste combustion of
high-ash coal
Picture 1 – Visualization of future power engineering industry of Kazakhstan
One of the global challenges facing modern society and demanding the decision is the
problem of rational use of natural resources with minimum possible negative impact on
environment.
"The meeting with the future" is an attempt to imagine the image of the "Natural
Resources and Environment" direction which in the considered future will meet expectations of
society in the productive, comfortable, safe, socially oriented and eco-friendly world.
Rational use of natural resources is largely determined by the technologies which are the
cornerstone of the existing productions. Therefore, the current concepts and production decisions
on the energy generation companies of Kazakhstan demand the coordinated development with
the transformations happening in economy and society. Development of information technologies
makes these changes much faster and uncertain, in comparison with the processes which were
taking place in the past, thereby imposing additional loads on the industry. In this regard we see
the future of the direction in Kazakhstan through a harmonious combination of approaches to the
use of natural resources and development of power engineering of Kazakhstan.
5
2030: optimal future for Kazakhstan in the field of energy engineering









Development and modernization of thermal power due to use of non-waste technologies
of coal burning, application of pyrolysis and gasification of coal, use of shale and artificial
gas.
Introduction of renewable energy sources (wind, solar, small and mini-hydroelectric
power station, bio- and geothermal stations, etc.).
Low energy intensity of economy due to introduction of actions for energy efficiency and
energy saving
Diversification of energy supply due to decentralization of the transfer lines and
organization of local hybrid stations.
Use of financial instruments on stimulation of energy saving, energy efficiency,
introduction of RES ("green" certificates, innovative companies shares)
Introduction of electric cars and electric transport
Basic researches on development of safe technologies on atomic energy use
Development of new types of fuel
Legislative recognition of tariff setting on different types of energy
The summary and prospects for the future
•
•
•
•
•
•
The given analytical researches on development of power industry of Kazakhstan up to
2030 are based on strategic foresight.
Tariffs for energy, science funding and changes in structure of energy are Key Factors of
Uncertainty that have high influence and high uncertainty on the future of the energy
sector.
4 scenarios, such as innovative development, diversification of power engineering, reduce
negative influence and elimination of threats are developed on the basis of the analysis of
a network of influential factors and key factors of uncertainty.
Strategy of overcoming is developed on the basis of the requirements caused by key
factors of power industry and development of the energy markets.
Introduction of RES, energy efficiency and changes of structure and strengthening of
energy competitiveness of traditional industries are presented as the general important
strategy of overcoming in various scenarios.
Modernization of power industry with use of new technologies, by science funding are
defined as strategy of evasion from big risk in the future.
6
I. Global challenges, trends, and factors of development
Among the main challenges for the development of power industry in the world it is possible to
distinguish the following challenges with the greatest impact:
The social and economic. Growth of population in the developing and poorest countries and
aging of the population in the most technologically developed countries. Decrease of number of
working-age population. Growth of needs in primary resource in 22,5 times in comparison with
1900. Growth of level and quality of life. Depletion of fossil types of fuels and toughening of
ecological requirements, and, as a result, increases in prices for energy carriers.
Dynamics of population growth is shown below in picture 2.
1 0 00 0 0 00
9 0 00 000
8 000 000
7 0 00 000
6 0 00 000
Population, thos.
5 0 00 000
4 0 00 000
3 0 00 000
2 0 00 000
1 0 00 000
0
1 80 0
1 85 0
1 90 0
1 95 0
2 00 0
2050
Years
Picture 2 – dynamics of Earth population growth from 1800 to 2050.
Dynamics of primary resources consumption is shown below in picture 3.
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Years
Picture 3 – dynamics of primary resources consumption from 1965 to 2012.
Ecological. Pollution of the soil and water at all stages of electricity generation (from production
of primary resources till direct electricity generation). The climate change caused by greenhouse
gases emissions. The emergence of local points of high radiation hazard caused by emergencies
on a number of the NPP. Change of the natural hydrological mode of the rivers because of a
construction of dams and reservoirs.
7
40000
Greenhouse gases, mln.tСО2
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Years
Picture 4 – dynamics of greenhouse gases emissions growth from 1965 to 2012.
Scientific and technological. Despite the growth of the significant scientific and
technological breakthroughs in the energy industry, covering spheres from production of primary
resources and electricity generation to utilization of drains, greenhouse gases and etc., increase of
the public and private expenditures for research and development – introduction of an innovation
going on rather slowly. That is caused by a technological lag effect of power industry, a capital
intensity and low economic attractiveness.
Factors and trends that will have a significant impact on the development of the
world's power industry until 2030 include the following:
1. Energy efficiency, eco-villages, the use of electric transport;
2. Safe and low-energy-intensive power industry;
3. Renewable energy;
4. Growth of developing of nonconventional gas from shale and coal layers;
5. Decrease and regulation of volumes of oil production;
6. Climate change;
7. Greenhouse gases emission reduction;
8. Development of quotas trade system;
9. Monopolization of the energy resources market;
10. Growth of the international economic integration and increase of a political tension in
various regions;
11. Intellectualization of society;
12. Dependence of world economy from three leading countries and communities: People's
Republic of China, USA and EU.
For the last 20 years there was a growth of greenhouse gases emissions on 20% which was
generally caused by development of the energy sector. The main emitters of greenhouses gases
(on absolute value) are China, the USA, the EU, and Russia.
The interrelation of energy production and harmful emissions into the environment
demands fast transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy sources – transition to low-carbon
energy on a global scale.
8
Dynamics of electricity generation growth is shown below in Picture 5.
dynamics of electricity
generation
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Years
Picture 5 – dynamics of electricity generation from 1985 to 2012.
The nuclear power could become the engine for this transition; however its development
is slowed down by such factors as complexity of the treatment with SNF and radioactive waste,
limited resource base, as well as negative attitude among the population that is caused by a
number of accidents on the NPP.
Thus, the basic directions of development for world power industry will be a replacement
of coal generation by gas generation and development of RES.
Replacement of coal in Europe, where the ecological legislation is very strict will be the
most probable. By 2030 gas will occupy 65% in growth of production of fossil fuel. Production
of nonconventional gas will increase too; especially big growth will be in North America: shale
gas and gas of coal layers will make 57% of gas production in the USA. In Europe key changes in
this sphere are expected after 2020 when there would a decrease in reserves of traditional gas,
and Europe will have to double import to 2030.
Development of technologies of gas production from shale and coal layers will allow to
create unique local energy sources for remote settlements, thus reduce losses both in networks,
and at the organization of heat and/or energy supply.
Developed technologies for producing diesel fuel and fuel oil from waste oil and coal will
allow to dispose harmful industrial wastes, as well as to create new fuels which have high
coefficient of alteration of raw materials.
As noted above, against a growing demand for energy carriers and their obvious
depletion, in developed countries besides creation of large wind farms, a solar power station and
other renewable energy sources now, there is a tendency of creation of ecovillages with
autonomous energy saving systems on the basis of RES is observed.
An ecovillage is the housing estate formed by ecohouses. The ecohouse is not necessarily
separate house; it can be included in the blocks consisting of several apartments. Electricity and
heat supply of this kind housing is carried out at the expense of the combined sources of RES –
solar energy + WDPP + heat accumulators.
At the same time, there is a growing need for ecological transport which will include both
electric cars, and related infrastructure – autonomous electric gas stations, fed from renewable
energy.
9
In the long term one of the most considerable shifts in energy consumption to 2030 will occur in
transport sector. Distribution of hybrid and other advanced vehicles, along with improvement of
efficiency of traditional cars, will lead a better fuel demand for personal transport, even taking
into account doubling of their quantity. On the contrary, demand for fuel for commercial
transport – trucks, planes, trains and ships will sharply grow.
In turn development of RES will demand keep development of mechanisms through quotas trade,
as well as universal introduction of new financial instruments, such as "green" certificates and so
on.
II. Kazakhstan trends and factors
In Kazakhstan, the most important are the following factors:
1. Reduction of resources;
2. Reduction of water resources;
3. Lack in technology;
4. Urban population growth, reduction of rural population;
5. Consolidation and strengthening of management;
6. Influence of energy costs on world economy;
7. Threat of ecological catastrophe.
Kazakhstan, as a country with the commodity economy, is in strong dependence on export
of natural resources, including energy carriers. Privatization of many fields led to their aggressive
operation and decrease in profitability. National economy is energy-intensive and ineffective.
According to the general forecasts oil can end through 40-50 years, uranium – 100 years, coal
200-300 years.
Increase in prices for energy carriers leads to increase in cost of their derivatives, and
especially on transport and energy services. As these components are present at any goods, prime
cost of domestic goods and services increases, that negatively influences a social situation in RK.
Sale of raw materials in the territory of Kazakhstan is made at the world prices; there is no
protection of domestic market against increase in prices in the world markets.
Against the general technological backwardness (energy is provided by 3 and 4
technological way, lag from industrialized countries of 45-50 years) moral and physical aging of
the equipment of power industry and its infrastructure leads to growth of probability of
technogenic catastrophes. Thus Kazakhstan is one of leaders in emissions of CO2 on GDP unit.
Increase of water intake in the rivers Ili, Irtysh, Syr-Darya, Chu, Urals etc. by neighboring
countries (China, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan) leads to decrease in energy generation on
hydroelectric power station of Kazakhstan, generally on hydroelectric power station of the Irtysh
cascade and Kapchagay hydroelectric power station. Also outdated system of hydraulic
engineering constructions does not allow quickly influencing needs of energy and water supply.
Mass outflow of rural population to the cities of Kazakhstan is caused by lack of work and
infrastructure in the rural community.
The maintenance of energy infrastructure in the rural zone is problematic because of big
losses; the centralized energy supply of small and small-scale enterprises is unprofitable,
inefficient and unreliable.
It should also be noted that in the field of power engineering there is no uniform governing
body: the thermal power is transferred to private management; energy efficiency regulation issues
perform by MINT, Samruk-Energo JSC and KEGOC JSC while issues on RES belong to MEP.
10
In 2010 the METR was transformed to MINT and issues on power engineering passed to Power
industry Department. This year RES transferred from MINT to MEP.
In "Samruk-Kazyna" NWF staffing of power industry department makes no more than 10
people, that is 10 people operate all state energy facilities.
In education, it can be noted that Universities do not let out enough necessary experts. The
power engineering sphere is not attractive to young specialists.
In connection with the above, for the development of Kazakhstan power engineering the
followings is necessary:
ion (including the ecological legislation, legislations concerning
tariff setting and support of RES);
countries;
ing development of own production and research and
development);
energy supply of rural population by complex
autonomous systems with involvement of RES;
use of fossil fuels;
-carbon economy;
engineering
ripened need of creation of uniform governing body;
energy specialties
for HEI, as well as introduction of ecological education since kindergartens and schools);
III. Trends and factors key for development of "Safe, Clean and Efficient Power
Engineering" directions in Kazakhstan
The analysis of a key factors assessment (picture 6) is shown in table 1.
"Safe, clean and efficient power engineering»
direction
social
economical
ecological
technological
(S1) Urban
growth
(S2) Raising the
status of
scientists and
inventors
(T1) Construction of
RES
(T2) Introduction of
non-waste
technologies of highash coals combustion
(T3) Development of
safe nuclear energy
technology
(T4) development of
Kazakhstani energy
technology
political
(E1) Resource
depletion
(E2) Rising cost of
oil and gas
(E) Energy
efficiency and
energy saving
(E4) Increase
funding for science
Picture 6 – key factors
11
(Eso1)
environmental
requirements for
CHPP and TPP
(Eso2) Green
certificates
(Eso3) R&D in
the energy sector,
taking into
account the
environmental
safety
(P1)
Improvement of
legislation
(P2) Creatione of
innovative
companies
Table 1. The key factors assessment on macro and micro levels
Wave effects
Macro/micro forces, points
С1. The growth of urban population
Е1. Resource depletion
Есо1. Environmental requirements for CHPP and TPP.
Е2. Rising prices for oil and gas
Е3. Energy saving and energy efficiency
Т1. Construction of RES
Т2. The introduction of non-waste technologies of high-ash coals
combustion
Т3. Development of safe nuclear energy technology
5
5
4
5
5
3
Uncertainty
1
5
3
1
1
3
3
1
3
3
5
1
5
1
3
3
Р1. Improvement of legislation
5
1
Есо2. Green certificates
5
1
Research and educational environment:
C2. Enhancing the status of scientists
5
5
Е4. Increase of science funding
5
5
Т4. Development of Kazakhstan technologies
4
5
Р2. Creation of innovative companies
5
3
Есо3. R & D in the energy sector, taking into account the
5
5
environmental safety
* С –social factor, Е – e c o n o m i c a l f a c t o r , Т – t e c h n o l o g i c a l f a c t o r , Есо – e c o l o g i c a l f a c t o r , Р
– political factor.
Ranging of factors
Key factors can be ranged on the following signs:
– 5 points, average – 3 and weak – 1 point.
– 5ballov, average – 4, low – 1.
At the same estimates it is possible to give an assessment 4 or 3,5 depending on probable trends
and their importance.
There is ranging of 10 factors which influence on development of power industry is shown in table
2 below.
Table 2. Ranging of factors
C1
E2
T2
P1
Eco2
Eco1
5
P2
C2
E4
Eco3
E1
T4
T1
Wave effects
T3
E3
3
1
1
3
Uncertainty
12
5
Depending on time each factor will have the maximum effect. For forecasting period, i.e. till 2030 all
factors get on this time span, except the factor connected with nuclear power (picture 7).
Key trends in the "Safe, Clean and Efficient Power engineering" direction
Green
certificates
Rise in prices
Waste-free coal combustion
Improvement of legislation
Energy efficiency and energy saving
influence factor
New environmental requirements
Construction of RES
Resource depletion
New nuclear technology
Refusal of foreign nuclear technology
Refusal of bladed wind turbines
Picture 7 – key trends in power engineering
IV. Analysis of mutual influence factors
Let’s consider the influence of factors (table 3).
Table 3. Influence of factors
№ Factor
Influence on other factors
1
Growth in energy consumption Energy efficiency and introduction of RES. Growth of
energy consumption leads to additional expenses. For their
reduce it is important to strengthening of energy efficiency
and introduction of RES.
Legislative consolidation of environmental requirements.
Influence is weak on this factor.
Internal migration of the population with increasing urban
population. Influence is weak.
Resources depletion. Has direct influence and strengthens
this factor.
Fundamentals of energy industry – thermal stations. Growth
of energy consumption strengthens this factor since power
generation increases.
Training on use of RES. Influence is weak.
Development of safe nuclear power. Strengthens this factor
since the expansion in energy consumption demands new
power sources.
Introduction of waste-free technologies of burning of highash coals and technologies of emissions utilization.
Influence is weak.
13
2
3
4
5
Energy efficiency (EE) and
introduction of RES
Legislative consolidation of
environmental requirements
(LCER).
Internal migration of the
population with increasing
urban population.
Resources depletion.
Introduction of new technologies on RES with the improved
technical characteristics and adapted for conditions of
Kazakhstan. Influence is strong, because today all the
society is interested in clean energy.
Legislative consolidation of environmental requirements.
Influence is intense. Energy efficiency and RES introduction
demand change of the legislation, especially, regarding
ecology.
Internal migration of the population with increasing urban
population. Influence is weak.
Resources depletion. Has direct influence and weaken this
factor.
Fundamentals of energy industry – thermal stations. This
factor weakened, but influence is average.
Training on use of RES. Influence is strong.
Development of safe nuclear energy. Strengthens this factor
because nuclear energy is cost-effective.
Introduction of waste-free technologies of burning of highash coals and technologies of emissions utilization. The
influence is strong and strengthens the influence of this
factor.
Implementation of new technologies on RES with improved
technical characteristics and adapted to the conditions of
Kazakhstan. Influence is strong, develops implementation
and transfer of RES.
Internal migration of the population with increasing urban
population. Influence is weak.
Resources depletion. Influence is weak.
Fundamentals of energy industry – thermal stations. This
factor weakened, but influence is average.
Training on use of RES. Influence is strong.
Development of safe nuclear energy. Influence is strong and
deterring of nuclear energy development is possibly.
Introduction of waste-free technologies of burning of highash coals and technologies of emissions utilization.
Influence is strong and strengthens the influence of this
factor.
Implementation of new technologies on RES with improved
technical characteristics and adapted to the conditions of
Kazakhstan. Influence is strong, develops implementation
and transfer of RES.
Almost no effect on other factors of energy industry
Fundamentals of energy industry – thermal stations. This
factor weakened, but influence is average.
14
6
7
8
9
Fundamentals of energy
industry – thermal stations.
Training on use of RES.
Training on use of RES. Influence is strong.
Development of safe nuclear energy. Influence is strong
and strengthens this factor.
Introduction of waste-free technologies of burning of highash coals and technologies of emissions utilization.
Influence is strong and strengthens this factor.
Implementation of new technologies on RES with improved
technical characteristics and adapted to the conditions of
Kazakhstan. Influence is strong, develops implementation
and transfer of RES.
Almost no effect on other factors of energy industry.
Implementation of new technologies on RES with improved
technical characteristics and adapted to the conditions of
Kazakhstan. Influence is strong, develops implementation
and transfer of RES.
Does not affect the remaining factors.
Development of safe nuclear
energy.
Introduction of waste-free Implementation of new technologies on RES with improved
technologies of burning of technical characteristics and adapted to the conditions of
high-ash
coals
and Kazakhstan. Influence is weak.
technologies of emissions
utilization.
Influence of factors can show on the diagram (Picture 8).
Factors:
- economical;
- ecological;
- тех - technological;
- по -
циаль-
social
political.
Picture 8- Mutual influence of factors
15
V. The analysis of future markets in the world and Kazakhstan
The review of literature and analytical researches shows that the sales market of coal will grow,
as well as oil and gas (Table 4). Oil will keep the role as a main type of fuel though its share in
world demand will be reduced from 35% to 32%. Demand for oil will grow till 2030 for 37% in
comparison with 2006. It is possible to expect, till 2030 there will be a significant increase in coal
consumption. Demand for coal will increase for 73% therefore its share in total demand for
energy resources will increase from 25% up to 28%. The most part of increase in demand for coal
will fall on China and India. The share of natural gas will increase less considerably – from 21%
up to 22%.
Table 4. Current condition and forecast of structure of the world production of fossil fuel and
energy resources
Sourse
Worl
d
2004
Oil, mln. w/d
83,6
3
Gas, bln. m
2784
Coal, million. tons
5559
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006, Reference Case
2030
116,3
4663
8858
It is expected that in the nearest time perspective will be defined the real situation and the vision
of shale oil and shale gas development, both by technologies of production and economical
parameters. Reduction in cost of technology on hydrogen power is supposed. It is possible
reduction of the uranium market because of uncertainty on safety of nuclear technologies. It is
possible opening of the new markets related with emergence of new types of fuel on the basis of
nanotechnologies. Growth of the RES world markets.
Dependence of considerable part of developed countries on import deliveries of energy carriers
will remain on the considered horizon. Growth of energy saving can compensate from a half to
two thirds of a gain of demand for primary energy (Table 5).
Table 5. A current condition and the forecast of structure of the world consumption of fuel energy
resources in case of active policy on replacement of consumption of oil, one million tons of oil
equivalent, 2006.
Total
Coal
Oil
Gas
NPP
2004
11204
2773
3940
2302
714
mmtoe
2015
13537
3431
4534
2877
852
2030
15405
3512
4955
3370
1070
2004
100
25
35
21
6
share, %
2015
100
25
33
21
6
2030
100
23
32
22
7
In Kazakhstan 80% of energy are developed at coal stations (Table 6). Considering that
will be build new thermal stations on Balkhash, Kokshetau, Astana and Arkalyk, the need for
coal in the country will grow. Transition to gas thermal stations assumes increase in the market of
gas deliveries. Other factor of increase in the gas market is laying of the gas pipeline from the
West of Kazakhstan to Northern regions and Astana.
16
Table 6. Electricity generation in Kazakhstan
TPP
HPP
RES
NPP
Increase
Total volume of investments
Generation projects till 2030
2012, GW
2030, GW
17,5
24,7
2,2
2,9
0,1
3,5
0,9
62%
$ 63 bn.
Δ
7,2
0,7
3,4
0,9
The major parameter, defining efficiency of national economy, is GDP energy consumption. The
analysis of the Kazakhstan economy indicators indicates repeated excess of specific energy
consumption of the country GDP over a similar indicator of developed countries. According to
the experts, energy consumption of GDP of Kazakhstan is higher than a similar indicator of Japan
by 19 times.
The uniform electrical power system of the Republic of Kazakhstan (UEPS of Kazakhstan)
represents the complex uniting power plants, power lines and electric substations, providing
reliable and high-quality energy supply of consumers of the Republic of Kazakhstan, being under
uniform dispatching control.
Total length of electric networks in the Republic of Kazakhstan with a class of voltage of 110 kV
makes about 44 thousands km., 220kV – 20,2 thousands km. while the extent of networks with
voltage of 500 and 1150 kV makes about 6,9 thousands km.
The actual losses of the electric power in a network of KEGOC JSC for 2012 made taking into
account transits of neighboring states 2827,9 GWh or 5,68% of balanced electricity in a network
(picture 9). Losses of electric energy in NES RK are slightly higher in comparison with
developed countries that are caused by the following factors:
- Western countries is characterized by short-distances of the electricity transfer, while
Kazakhstan is characterized by long (500-1500 km) networks between the main centers of
consumption and generation;
- Kazakhstan is characterized by continental climate that adversely affects on corona losses in
electric networks of 220 kV and higher (the share of corona losses makes 20-30% of the general
losses).
Kazakhsta
n
United Kingdom
Sweden
Spain
Portugal
Norway
Greece
France
Finland
Czech
Republic
Austria
Picture 9- Electricity losses in transmission networks %
Distribution of the electric power in regions, oblasts and the cities of Kazakhstan, as well as
transfer of electric energy to retail consumers is carried out by the networks of 0,4-110 kV,
belonging to the Regional Electric Grid Companies (REGC).
17
In general, REGC electrical networks are characterized by a high degree of wear (65-70%) and
high losses (on average 13%) (Picture 10).
Kazakhstan
United Kingdom
Sweden
Spain
Portugal
Norway
Greece
France
Finland
Czech
Republic
Austria
Picture 10 – Losses of the electricity in distributive networks
The solution of problems in distribution sector of the electricity, first of all, requires introduction
of activities for energy efficiency and energy saving.
VI. The analysis of development strategy of power engineering sector in the world
Strategy of development of power engineering sector regarding obtaining (generation) of energy
is directed on: a) The prevailing obtaining energy at the expense of RES; b) The highly effective
smart-generating objects; c) Highly effective distributed and local smart-generating objects.
Strategy of development of power engineering sector regarding transfer (distribution) of energy is
directed on: a) The technologies and the equipment based on highly effective (energy - and
resource-saving) ways of transfer and distribution of energy; b) The highly effective smarttransferring (distributive) energy facilities – with potential possibility of transition of the
transferring (main) power lines to a direct current with 1 or 2-wire system in combination with
highly effective converting systems; c) Highly effective smart-conduction, cable and insulating
electric equipment and technologies.
Strategy of development of power engineering sector regarding energy transformation (from one
type to another) is directed on: a) highly effective and highly reliable smart-converters of electric
energy on the basis of power semiconductor electronics and smart control devices (the operated
converters of electric energy: alternating current to the direct; alternating current to the
alternating; direct current to the alternating; direct current to the direct; others).
Strategy of development of power engineering sector regarding storage of energy is directed on:
a) highly effective and highly reliable smart-systems of long storage of electric (and other types
of energy) energy.
Strategy of development of power engineering sector regarding use (application) of energy is
directed on: a) smart-systems and technologies of highly effective and highly reliable use of
electric (and other types of energy) energy.
Priority development of RES technologies and equipment:
- in the field of wind power development of technologies and the equipment is directed on: a)
increase in single capacity of wind turbines (WDPP) of offshore and onshore execution (now the
single capacity of WDPP reaches – 6 MW, soon – 10 MW and more; b) development of highly
18
effective wind turbines of low and average single capacity; c) decrease in unit cost of kW/hour of
electric energy (picture 11);
Picture 11 – Development of wind power
- in the field of solar power (photovoltaics) development of technologies and the
equipment is directed on: a) creation of the highly effective photoconverting devices and their
components allowing to reach maximum permissible coefficients of transformations of solar
energy in electric energy (picture 12);
19
Picture 12-Solar energy
- in the field of solar energy (thermal) development of technologies and the equipment is
directed on: (a)) creation of highly effective thermo-rectifying devices and their components to
achieve maximum conversion rates change solar thermal energy to electrical and/or heat;
- in the field of geothermal energy development of technologies and the equipment is
directed on: a) creation of the highly effective devices and their components allowing to reach
maximum permissible coefficients of transformations of geothermal energy in electric and/or
thermal;
- in the field of power of bioresources development of technologies and the equipment is
directed on: a) creation of the highly effective devices and their components allowing to reach
maximum permissible coefficients of transformations of bioresources energy to electric and/or
thermal (thermal);
- in the field of power of water resources development of technologies and the equipment
is directed on: a) creation of the highly effective devices and their components allowing to reach
maximum permissible coefficients of transformations of hydrodynamic energy of water resources
of the small rivers and reservoirs in electrical energy (and/or hydrothermal to heat); b) sea waves
and tides energy use (picture 13);
20
Picture 13 – Small hydropower
- in the field of the combined (complex) use of different types of RES development of
technologies and the equipment is directed on: a) creation of the highly effective combined
devices and their components allowing to reach maximum permissible coefficients of
transformation of cumulative energy of the sun, a wind, bioresources, geothermal, hydrodynamic
and other types of RES in electric and/or heat (thermal) energy; b) creation highly effective
distributed and local (including individual) sources of electric and/or heat (thermal) energy.
VII. The analysis of power engineering sector development strategy in Kazakhstan
Power engineering sector development strategies in RK are stated in fundamental program
documents and Laws of RK.
Strategy of development of power engineering in RK in general correspond to the main
world trends regarding energy efficiency, preservation of resources and development of
technique and technology of RES. However, the rates of development offered in the specified
documents, do not fully correspond today European and world ones.
During the present period strategic objectives and directions of development of Kazakhstan
for the period till 2030-2050 are almost created. (Appendix No. 3) Priorities of development and
value of the corresponding target indicators are defined. In these conditions a task of the
scientific and technological forecast is to reveal the directions providing achievement of target
values of these indicators, as well as to define the scientific and technological directions creating
potential for future development on longer prospect.
1)
"Kazakhstan-2050" strategy: a new political policy of the succeeded state
(RK President's letter of December 4, 2012)
2)
Ten global challenges of the XXI century according to "Kazakhstan 2050" strategy
1. The first challenge – acceleration of historical time
2. The second challenge – a global demographic imbalance
3. The third challenge – threat of global food security
4. The fourth challenge – an acute water deficiency
5. The fifth challenge – global energy security
6. The sixth challenge – exhaustibility of natural resources
7. The seventh challenge – The third industrial revolution
8. The eighth challenge – increasing social instability
9. The ninth challenge – crisis of our civilization’s values
10. The tenth challenge – threat of new world destabilization
For achievement of the purpose of accession of Kazakhstan by 2050 in number of 30 of
most developed states of the world it is necessary to solve the following problems: 1. Further
development and strengthening of statehood; 2. Transition to the new principles of economic
policy; 3. Full support of business – the leading force of national economy; 4. Formation of new
social model; 5. Creation of modern and effective systems of education and health care; 6.
Increase of responsibility, efficiency and functionality of the State apparatus; 7. Forming of the
international and defense policy adequate to new challenges.
For implementation of the tasks it is necessary to introduce essentially new control system
of natural resources, to use them as important strategic advantage of Kazakhstan for ensuring
economic growth, large-scale foreign policy and foreign economic agreements:
21
1. It is necessary the maximum acceleration of an entry of raw materials to the international
markets which in case of new financial crash will be destabilized. The advancing strategy will
allow accumulating money very quickly prior to destabilization of the markets, which will help
then the country survive a possible global crisis.
2. Technological revolution changes structure of raw materials consumption. For example,
introduction of technology of composites and new types of concrete depreciates reserves of iron
ore and coal. It is one more factor to increase the rates of production and delivery to the world
markets of natural resources to use present great world demand in interests of the country.
3. Remaining a major player in the market of hydrocarbons, Kazakhstan has to develop
alternative types of energy production, actively introduce technologies which use the sun and
wind energy. By 2050 in the country on alternative and renewable types of energy has to fall not
less than a half of all total energy consumption.
2) Strategy of development of the Republic of Kazakhstan till 2030
In October, 1997 in the President's letter of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the nation
"Prosperity, safety and improvement of welfare of all Kazakhstan citizens" was presented Strategy
of development of the Republic of Kazakhstan till 2030. "Kazakhstan-2030" strategy designated
the long-term way of development of the sovereign republic directed on transformation of the
country in one of the safest, stable, environmentally sustainable countries of the world with
dynamically developing economy.
Nursultan Nazarbayev, the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan noted need of
development of innovative technologies, which have direct relevance to the subject of future
World exhibition "EXPO-2017" in Astana - "Energy of the future". EXPO-2017 in Astana will
become the first international exhibition which is held in the countries of Central Asia and the
CIS. It is expected that about 100 countries of the world and about 10 international organizations
will take part in it. More than 5 million people will visit the exhibition. It will become a big step
on the way of the international promotion of Kazakhstan. Carrying out EXPO-2017 will serve as
additional incentive for economical and infrastructure development, both the capital, and the
republic in general. It is important to turn EXPO-2017 into the center of transition to the third
industrial revolution, which includes an alternative economy, creation of the corresponding hightech materials, sources of renewable energy, training and other issues", - told the President of
Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev at meeting on topical issues of development of the country in
the Akorda.
"Kazakhstan-2030" development strategy included seven long-term priorities:
• National security.
• Internal political stability and consolidation of society.
• Economic growth based on open market economy with the high level of foreign investments and
domestic savings.
• Health, education and wellbeing of citizens of Kazakhstan.
• Energy resources.
• Infrastructure, in particular transport and communication.
• Professional State.
These priorities formed a basis for formation of development plans of the country for the mediumterm and long-term periods. The Strategic development plan of the Republic of Kazakhstan till
2010 became the first long-term stage of "Kazakhstan-2030" Strategy realization, approved by the
Decree of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan in December, 2001. The following stage of
"Kazakhstan-2030" Strategy realization is the Strategic development plan of the Republic of
Kazakhstan till 2020.
3) State program on the Forced Industrial Innovative Development.
The State program on the Forced Industrial Innovative Development of the Republic of Kazakhstan
was adopted by the Decree of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan No. 958 of March 19,
2010.
22
The program's objective is to achieve sustainable and balanced growth of the economy through
diversification and improvement of its competitiveness.
As a result of realization of the State program on the forced industrial innovative development by
2014 Kazakhstan should achieve the following key indicators:
• GDP growth not less than 7 trillion tenge, in real terms GDP growth will make 15%;
• increase in a share of processing industry in structure of GDP up to the level not less than 12,5%;
• increase in a share of non-oil and gas export up to the level not less than 40% in a total amount
of export;
• increase in volume of non-oil and gas export up to the level not less than 43% from the volume
of cumulative production of processing industry;
• a work gain in productivity in processing industry not less than 1,5 times.
VIII. The analysis of R&D (directions, structure of financing) in the world,
identification of the leading countries
In today's world economy, the emphasis is not so much on material values, as on
intellectual potential. Ability of the nation to support a modern and effective education
system, to increase intellectual potential of labor by training becomes a critical factor
for ensuring competitiveness of the country.
Kazakhstan has now entered into an industrially-innovative development phase for the
economy. This stage is characterized by adaptation of the science sphere to modern
economic conditions that has to lead to the basic changes in structural, organizational,
personnel, infrastructure and financial security of science development regulated by
the corresponding normative legal base.
Development of scientific and technical capacity should not be treated as a co-factor,
which is not characteristic for traditional sectors of economy. The sphere of science is
the same sector of economy possessing all features, rules and mechanisms of
regulation, common for other sectors.
With more than 80% of the economy of Kazakhstan is in the private sector, the
principles of the regulation in the field of science, have inherited a weak focus on
market requirements, are outdated and are imperfect.
The inefficient mechanism of involvement of the private sector to development of
scientific and technical potential, rather low activity of participants in the sphere of
Research and Development still remain weak links of all scientific and technical
system in Kazakhstan, whereas development and introduction in production of new
technologies and the knowledge-intensive products are key factors of achievement and
preservation of competitive advantages in domestic and foreign markets. The norm on
mandatory deductions by subsoil users of 1% of budgets for research and development
and 1% for training practically does not work.
In the countries with developed economy (the USA, Japan, Finland) the enterprises of
the industry carry out research and development on the terms of self-sufficiency and
self-financing and realize up to 70% of all national expenses on research and
development whereas on average 30% fall to the share of the public expenditures.
The share of the knowledge-intensive products and expenses on science in the total
amount of GDP are the main indicators of the economy based on knowledge.
At the end of the last decade in the majority of the countries with developed economy
a share of internal costs for researches and development averaged 3,0% (Table 7) in a
total amount of GDP, thus the share of the state in these expenses averaged 25-34%.
23
Table 7. Share of internal costs of developed countries for researches and development
Countries
Sweden
Finland
Japan
Switzerland
United States of America
Germany
Research and development costs,% of GDP
3,8
3,5
3,0
4
2,7
3
2,8
4
2,4
4
Costs of research and development per capita in the countries with developed economy and costs
per employee in research and development are given in Table 8:
Table 8. Costs of research and development per capita in developed countries, US dollar
Countrie
s
USA
Sweden
Finland
Switzerland
Iceland
Germany
Denmark
Norway
France
Russia
Great Britain
Japan
Cost for 1 person
892
875
726
688
613
580
541
479
478
420
Costs per employee in R&D
123 299
154 234
146 422
113 886
In the countries, which lead in the world market of the knowledge-intensive products, the share of
expenses on science in the total amount of GDP is rigidly controlled, including by use of such
economic mechanisms, as the preferential taxation, low custom duties, budgetary support,
stimulation of investments, leasing of the scientific equipment.
The share of the knowledge-intensive products of Russia in the world market makes 0,3-0,5, the
countries of European Union - 35, the USA - 25, Japan-11, Singapore - 7, South Korea - 4, China
- 2%.
Experience of developed countries shows that on a share of new or advanced technologies,
production, equipment containing new knowledge or solutions it is necessary from 70 up to 85%
of GDP growth.
Conducted macroeconomic analysis of scientific and technical development in Kazakhstan
showed that the share of new scientific products in GDP in recent years does not exceed 1,1%,
activity of the enterprises for production of scientific production – 2,3%. It specifies that scientific
and technical activity did not become a basis of economic development of the country yet. Thus it
should be noted that higher activity is characteristic for the enterprises with foreign participation
(5%) and private form of ownership (3,7%) at low activity of the state enterprises (0,6%).
The science was excluded from process of economic reform. It did not provide consecutive
creation of scientific "reserve", the extremely necessary for activization of factors of economic
and social progress and overcoming of lag of Kazakhstan from developed countries.
More detailed analysis of problems allows revealing the major factors which are slowing down
science development in Kazakhstan.
24
In organizational structure of the sphere of science there is no system in decision-making, use of
resources and capacity of the private sector. The presence of a large number of administrators of
the scientific researches programs which are carried out at the expense of the State budget
complicates realization of legislatively consolidated norms of single administration and
coordination of the researches conducted in the country.
Structural disproportions in the organization of research works resulted in practical lack of
demand for results of research and development. So, for example, one of characteristic features of
the Kazakhstan science is that fact that mainly are financed (71%) applied researches whereas for
experimental developments (hereinafter - ED) allocates only 8%. Expenses on fundamental
science make about 21% that in general corresponds to the average world level.
The share of the development organ is very low: on average it is 1 design organizations for
share of 9 scientific organizations. The number of experts in these organizations makes about 5%
of total number of the workers who are carrying out research and development, or 0,1% of
number of the personnel of an industrial and production complex.
For the last decade the most critical changes happened in a personnel component of
domestic scientific potential. Conditions for reproduction of personnel potential in connection
with withdrawal of highly qualified personnel from the sphere of science for various reasons
became complicated.
So, the number of the personnel occupied with researches and development in Kazakhstan
in comparison with 1991 was reduced by 57,6% (i.e. more than twice) and in 2006 made 18,9
thousand people (peculiar "peak" of reduction falls on 1991-2000 - 26,1 thousand people). The
number of specialists researchers was reduced by 60,2% and in 2006 made 11,0 thousand people.
In 1990-2000 the number of all workers in Kazakhstan occupied with researches and development
was reduced by 2,8 times, in a state sector of science rate of reduction was significantly lower.
Noticeable deformation of structure of employment in science became a result of a transition
period in national economy. The largest reductions were among direct participants of scientific
process – researchers (for 56,9% for 1991-2006) and technicians (for 14,1% over 1997-2006). The
number of supporting personnel was reduced by 68,4%, administrative staff – 22%.
Average age of doctors of science averages 55-59 years-old. Thus steady decrease in prestige of a
profession of the scientist is observed. In Kazakhstan, according to survey of BISAM Central Asia
in 2005, the profession of the scientist is prestigious in estimates of only 4,3% of the population.
At the same time in the USA, by results of the researches (2004) directed on ranging of
professions only on prestigiousness degree from the point of view of residents of the country, the
profession of the scientist was the most attractive: 51% of respondents called this profession
extremely prestigious, 25% - very prestigious and 20% - prestigious.
Thus its reorientation mainly to educational functions is the main reason for low
participation of sector of the higher education in scientific researches. It was connected with
reduction of public financing of the higher education sphere, primary by development of fee-paid
education, emergence of private educational institutions, incorporating the state higher
educational institutions against constantly growing competition in this sector.
Total number of researchers with academic degrees (excluding faculty) made in Kazakhstan 4124
person in 2006, the number of the scientists who are carrying out research and development, 18,9
thousand people, including 1106 doctors of science and 3018 candidates of science.
It is also necessary to note presence of negative tendencies in preparation of scientific personnel:
increase in a share of the candidates defending theses who are not working in the scientific sphere;
insufficient flexibility of training system; absence of motivation of workers of the scientific and
educational sphere to further professional growth after receiving an academic degree without
proportional material security. All of this has led to:
- narrowing of scale of publications and patents of domestic scientists. So, for example, in
the republic on average one scientific article published abroad is the share of 100
scientists, on 15000 scientists one-two international patents are taken out;
- decline in quality of examination of scientific researches and, as a result, intensive
growth of number of owners of academic degrees;
25
-
discrepancy of the available scientific and innovative potential and needs of production
for use of perspective technologies that led to a rupture of communications between
science and production;
- lack of the competition between schools of sciences and certain scientists;
- departure of highly qualified personnel to the commercial sphere and the scientific
organizations of the foreign states;
- decrease in inflow of the new research and educational personnel and lack of young
specialists of the scientific and technical sphere;
- decrease in the social status of the scientist and prestige of science;
- low productivity of scientific researches;
- rupture of continuity.
In 2005 the share of the state costs for SRW made 59,7%, that is slightly higher in
comparison with indicators of 1997 (44,0%). The share of financing of all basic and applied
researches by the Ministry of Education and Science made 50,7% of them, other branch ministries
- 48,6%.
Costs of research and development per capita in Kazakhstan in 2005 made 7 US dollars. On
the level of costs for science (0,26% of GDP) Kazakhstan lags behind such European countries as
Portugal (0,77%) and Greece (0,51%).
Besides, because the budgetary cycle is only one year, decisions on financing of three-year
scientific and technical programs are made annually. It leads to increase of expenses both time,
and administrative.
Carrying out competitions on government procurements of research works at the beginning
of a year brings in result to opening of financing by the end of the first quarter that negatively
influences on receiving of the results of research and development planned until the end of the
current year.
Mainly budget financing of researches, first of all fundamental character, creates focus of
the scientific organizations on resources, but not on result.
It should be noted also that fact that the laboratory and instrument base of science is
generally concentrated in a public sector of science. The vast majority of laboratory equipment
and the machines making fixed assets are concentrated in the scientific organizations which are in
a state property. In value terms it made 5104,7 million tenge (41,2% of all fixed assets) in 2004.
Thus the share of fixed assets of researches and development falling on private institutions and
cooperation management enterprises rather increased in 2000-2004 by 2% and 17,6%
respectively.
For the last decade position of a public sector in structure of domestic science practically did
not change: the scientific organizations, the personnel occupied there and the material base which
is a state property are a basis of a scientific and technical complex of Kazakhstan.
Outdated material base in general and laboratory equipment in particular do not allow
conducting the scientific researches and experimental development to meet demand of consumers.
Absence of project and engineering departments (institutes) slows down process of transfer of
technologies in production that leads to disruption of science communication with production.
Quality of management of state sector of science and public usefulness of the private sector
of science remain low, insufficient efficiency of realization of scientific potential for ensuring
competitiveness of Kazakhstan in the world market takes place. Thus, realization of a strategic
task of entry of Kazakhstan into number of the most competitive countries of the world, which
have the developed control system of economic development demands development and
implementation of the long-term program including providing specific ways and measures for
development of effective scientific and technical system.
R&D directions:
Creation and priority development of energy effective (energy saving) technologies and products
for all without exception of branches of human activity, including receiving, transfer
(distribution), transformation, storage and use of electric and thermal energy on the basis of
traditional energy carriers;
Creation and development of technologies and equipment of receiving electric and thermal energy
on the basis of priority use of the renewable energy sources (RES) – energy of the sun, a wind,
geothermal, etc.
26
Creation and development of power technologies of new generation on the basis of coals and
hydrocarbonic raw materials. Including technologies of use of the ashes and slags.
Creation and development of technologies of nuclear (atomic) power engineering of new
generation of high reliability and safety.
Creation and development of technologies of energy of new generation of high reliability and
safety on the basis of hydrogen.
Creation and development of energy of new generation of high reliability and safety on the basis
of space (extraterrestrial) technologies of obtaining energy and its wireless transfer on a terrestrial
surface.
Creation and development of highly reliable and safe technologies of storage of considerable
volumes of energy.
Creation and development of energy of new generation of high efficiency and reliability on the
basis of smart-power systems: smart-generating, smart-objects of transfer, distribution,
transformation, storage and consumption of energy. Including “virtual" power systems, as well as
objects of "local" power.
IX. Analysis of competences in the field of R&D in Kazakhstan
Researches in the field of power engineering are directed on acceleration of development of
economically effective technologies for more steady energy sector:
• Hydrogen and fuel elements - support of the EU fuel and hydrogen branches, for stationary,
portable and transport applications
• Renewable sources of the electric power - technology for increase of overall effectiveness of
transformation, economic efficiency and reliability, decrease in costs of electricity generation
• Production of renewable fuel – system of production of fuel and technology of transformation
• Renewable energy sources for heating and cooling - technology for cheaper, more effective
active and passive heating and cooling from renewable energy sources
• Technologies of collecting and storage of CO2 for zero emission generation - technologies,
which reduce impact on environment of fossil fuel use consequences through collecting CO2
• Clean Coal technologies - to improve essentially efficiency of power plants, reliability and
decrease in expenses by carrying out scientific researches, developments and demonstrations of
clean coal and other technologies of transformation of solid fuel, making also secondary energy
carriers (including hydrogen) and liquid or gaseous fuel
• Intelligent energy networks - increase of efficiency, safety, reliability and quality of European
electric - and gas networks in the context of more integrated European energy market
• Power efficiency and energy saving - technologies for energy efficiency increase, as well as
introduction of primary and final energy consumption economy, throughout their life cycle, for
buildings (including lighting), transport, service trade and the industry
• Knowledge for power policy - tools, methods and models for an assessment of the economic and
social problems connected with power technologies and ensuring quantitative values of the
purposes and scenarios for medium-and long-term horizons
• The horizontal program - the topics stated in this section have the horizontal character which is
not connected specifically with any particular technology.
According to requirements of social and economic development within "Kazakhstan-2030"
Strategy, the Ministry of Education and Science performs works on coordination of 47 programs
of the basic researches created on a competitive basis in 20 priority directions, 6 republican
scientific and technical programs, over 200 applied and innovative projects for preparation for
development of new knowledge-intensive productions.
Now the RK electrical power industry development program with prospect till 2030 is developed
by the RK Ministry of Industry and New Technologies (MINT). The main objectives of the
Program is a modernization of the power equipment, connected with the accruing moral and
physical ageing of the generating and network household, influencing on reliability of power
supply of consumers, first of all the population. Lack of a necessary reserve of the generating
capacities. Low investment attractiveness of industry and problems with preparation and
providing.
27
It is offered to design industry development program till 2020 with prospect till 2030 for the
solution of these problems. The main directions of the program will be: the first – formation of the
united power grid providing uniform power safety of the country and need of economy and the
population.
The second - decrease in an environmental pressure, creation of waste-free power productions and
involvement of renewable energy sources in a united power grid. The third - the maximum use of
the principles of energy efficiency and energy saving.
The maximum use of the program for implementation of the state program of the forced industrial
and innovative development by development of the Kazakhstan contents will be the fourth
direction.
There is a certain potential of R&D in Kazakhstan in the field of traditional power engineering
(electricity and thermal power sectors), mostly due to prevailing schools of sciences of the senior
generation scientists. There is also certain research resource in the field of nuclear power.
R&D in Kazakhstan is carried out, generally in higher education institutions, universities and
scientific centers. The specific amount of financing does not correspond to the level of
technologically developed countries.
The current system of R&D-staff training does not meet sufficiently to development of power
engineering of Kazakhstan in the priority directions. In particular, is absent or is presented by
fragmented staff training (the bachelor, the master, the doctor) in the priority and perspective
directions of development of power engineering – power effective (energy saving) technologies,
the RES technology, etc. The system of public research (national) laboratories created on grant
financing does not give visible effect.
The system of granting, as well as other types of financing of the priority directions of technology
and technologies development is created (including in the field of power engineering). However,
nontransparency of examinations at a stage of grant (or other types of financing) allocation and a
public assessment of results of the executed R&D does not allow R&D-specialists achieve the
necessary efficiency and relevance in depth and possibility of further commercialization of the
scientific results comparable with the world ones.
Global efficiency and productivity of R&D in the field of power engineering (both traditional, and
RES) in Kazakhstan do not correspond to the expected world achievements.
Suppress disinterest of business and the national companies in serious financing (joint financing)
and development of R&D in Kazakhstan. Total absence of private sponsoring institute of R&Dprojects.
It is desirable to carry out conducting joint scientific researches with the leading world
scientific centers in the directions:
Technologies of creation of new types of fuel.
Technologies of receiving various radio isotope products (for nuclear medicine and other branches
of economy).
Effective and environmentally friendly power system.
Effective use of renewable types of energy.
Researches on photonics.
The transfer of technologies (purchase) of advanced technologies and competences and their
adaptation in relation to RK will be preferable:
Technologies of green power;
Perspective bio-energetic;
Intellectual power systems of the future;
Modeling of perspective power technologies and systems;
Safe hydrogen technologies;
Safe nuclear technologies;
High-octane oil refining;
Steam-gas power stations;
Installations with smart-management;
Combined power complexes.
28
X. Strategy of actions for the scenario implementation
On the basis of SWOT analysis are created strategy of actions for "Safe, Clean and Efficient
Power Engineering" direction
Strategy of innovative development of power engineering
1. Application of new technologies for energy efficiency and energy saving.
2. Introduction of the Kazakhstan development on RES and a transfer of technologies on RES
accessories.
3. Introduction of technologies on waste-free burning of high-ash coals.
4. Development of safe nuclear technologies.
5. Formation of a ED network, test laboratories, shops for production of models, plants for
production and testing of industrial designs.
6. Development of financial instruments for stimulation of energy efficiency, energy saving and
introduction of RES.
Formation innovative companies on the basis of public and private partnership for creation of
conditions on promotion of an innovation from an origin stage till its commercialization.
Strategy of power production diversification
1. Modernization of the operating power sources, using the Kazakhstan development and transfer
of technologies.
2. Planning of an energy audit, introductions of actions for energy efficiency and energy saving
on power facilities which have to be connected with responsibility of specific organs and specific
officials.
3. Certification and accreditation of establishments for conducting an energy audit and
introduction of energy efficiency measures.
4. Certification and accreditation of establishments for training and professional development on
an energy audit and on introduction of energy efficiency measures.
5. Increase of the status of scientists-power engineers, teachers of HEI of a energy profile by
increasing rates on wages and increase in financing of research and development.
6. Encouraging young specialists - power engineers for work in the power centers, HEIs,
scientific research institutes.
7. Encouraging young specialists for further education in Magistracy, doctorate in practical
implementation of their work in the energy sector.
Strategy of negative influence reduction
1. Reduction of losses in networks due to development of local power supply and power
generation.
2. Development of the differential tariffs for producers of energy.
3. Stimulation of energy efficiency, energy saving and introduction of RES.
4. Decrease in prime cost of energy due to energy efficiency, energy saving and use of RES, and
as well as decrease in expenses according to ecological requirements.
5. Passportization and accreditation of power sources on use of an innovation and transfer of
technology for modernization of operating plants and in the construction of new facilities.
6. Improvement of the energy sector legislation and control of execution with the indication of
particular bodies and specific officials.
7. Development of the higher education system in the field of alternative power engineering with
allocation of state grants on training of undergraduates and doctoral candidates on RES and to
organize internships of our experts abroad.
8. Increase in public financing of basic and applied researches on power engineering.
9. To create departments on science and innovations in each ministry and the national companies.
29
Strategy of threats elimination
1. Stimulation of low-carbon development.
2. Stimulation of creation of experimental schools and research teams involving younger
generation of experts and researchers.
3. Granting the "cheap" credits from the State to the power companies for modernization of
production with use of the Kazakhstan development and transfer of technologies.
4. System development for pointed financing of the most highly profitable and technically
effective developments.
5. Issue of securities of the energy companies at implementation of strategic projects in the
industry.
6. Development of risks assessment system in the energy sector.
7. Studying of a complex of energy resources of RES areas of perspective development
8. Development of design procedures of standard design solutions for complex power supply of
autonomous objects with involvement of RES. The power industry of Kazakhstan is among the
most solid, large and dynamically developing sectors.
The main raw material for production of electrical and thermal energy now and in the long
term is coal. The republic is provided with explored coal reserves for 250 years. The power
industry is the main consumer of fuel resources (67%).
Power industry of Kazakhstan is characterized by extended (500-1500 km) networks
between centers of generation and electricity consumption and primary use of low-quality highash coal.
The analysis of the current state of power industry reveals several problems, which should
and could be overcome in the medium term.
In sector of fuel resources:
- prevalence of consumption over completion of reserves of power fuels;
- reduced quality and increased cost of hydrocarbon fuel.
In generation sector:
- high level of physical wear and tear of fixed assets, including remaining fleet life of the
generating equipment on thermal power plant – 75%, on hydroelectric power station – 90%;
- obsolete technologies and, as a result, low efficiency of generation. So, the efficiency of
thermal power plant does not exceed 34%, in
- obsolete technologies and, as a result, low efficiency of generation. So, the efficiency of
thermal power plant does not exceed 34%, high load of environment (thermal and physical
emissions of the polluting substances);
- reduction of a share of power generation in the combined cycle (from 40 CHP plants only
13 work according to the heat schedule)
In sector of transfer of energy carriers:
- worn-out and obsolete equipment. In electric networks wear makes-75%, in heat networks more than 80%;
- high losses during transportation, in NES – 5,7%, in distribution networks over 13%, losses
of energy in heat networks reach 40% (on average 25%);
In consumption sector:
- prevalence of outdated technologies of industrial production, as a result, power consumption
of production in 3 and more times is higher in comparison with the world level;
- lack of efficiency in energy consumption in residential sector (potential of energy saving is
estimated as 25-30%);
- inadequate energy security in remote and inaccessible areas. Electricity consumption in
agricultural does not exceed 2%. As a result, productivity of agricultural work in RK is ten times
lower, than in the developed European countries, losses of agricultural production exceed 50%.
Lack of access to modern energy services interferes with introduction of modern technologies in
agriculture and to development of SME, is the reason of negative trends of internal migration of the
rural population.
For development of industry, within this scenario it is offered to use the activities forming
the following main strategy.
30
1. Strategy of technological modernization (strategy is directed on use and strengthening of the
available advantages to realize opportunities).
In sector of fuel resources:
- involvement of unexploitable hydrocarbonic raw materials;
- application of underground gasification technologies;
- use of oil-dissolved gases and methane of coal layers in local energy generation systems;
- energy use of uranium;
- replacement fossil fuels with RES.
In generation sector:
- rehabilitation and modernization of the installed power equipment for decrease in a gap between
the installed and available capacity, increases of energy efficiency and ecological safety;
- expansion of IT technologies application for management and regime optimization.
In sector of energy carriers’ transportation:
- rehabilitation and modernization of the existing power lines and heat networks for increase of
reliability, capacity and decrease in losses;
- application of digital technologies in control and management systems of electrical and heat
networks.
In consumption sector:
- decrease in specific energy consumptions in the industry by modernization of the main
engineering procedures, use of the energy saving equipment, decrease in losses;
- thermal modernisation of the existing buildings;
- application of the automated control and management systems of climatic mode of buildings;
- renewal of outdated devices, equipment and systems for energy efficiency ones.
2. Strategy of innovative and technological development (strategy is directed on increase of energy
security of the country by broad application of the latest domestic and foreign technologies,
achieving energy and environmental indicators in the industry at the level of world standards).
In sector of fuel resources.
- deployment and implementation of technologies of enrichment and gasification of coals for
application in steam-gas cycles of thermal power plant;
- development and implementation of technologies of thermochemical redistribution of oil-dissolved
gases and methane of coal layers for energy use;
- development and application of energy-efficient and resource-saving technologies of production
and enrichment of uranium;
- development and implementation of technology of liquefaction and seasonal accumulation of
natural gas on thermal power plant;
- development and application of biogas plants (generally on waste of agriculture and livestock).
In generation sector:
- development and implementation of waste-free technologies of low-quality and high-ash coal
combustion;
- application of modern technologies of ash collection and neutralization of flue gases;
- implementation of electrical power units on supercritical and oversupercritical parameters and
steam-gas cycles;
- implementation of technologies of increase of energy production in the combined cycles (by the
distributed generation, involvement in production of low-potential heat of thermal power plant, etc.);
- application of safe nuclear reactors;
- development and broad use of the generating equipment on the basis of RES for network and local
application;
- development and widespread implementation of hybrid systems for complex energy supply of
autonomous (island) systems and individual consumers.
In sector of energy carriers’ transportation:
- development and implementation of the energy effective equipment in systems of heat– and energy
supply;
- broad application of intelligent control systems;
- expansion and optimization of centralized energy systems
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In consumption sector:
- development and implementation of new energy effective technological systems of production on
the basis of modern technologies with application of a energy technological combination and system
engineering;
- development and implementation of more rigid norms of building designing regarding energy
efficiency;
- development and broad application of projects of energy saving, passive buildings;
- design and execution of projects on intensive integration of RES on the consumer side.
3. Strategy of industry restructuring (strategy assumes decrease in influence of weaknesses inherent
in the industry and counteraction to external threats).
In sector of energy resources:
- increase of a share of RES in the total production of electricity and heat energy;
In generation sector:
- increase of production of electrical and heat energy due to the distributed generation on the basis
of gas-turbine (gas-piston) cogeneration mini CHP included in NES;
- organization of the combined production of heat and electrical energy on local (island) mini
CHP;
- complex energy supply of the remote and inaccessible areas due to supply hybrid systems.
In sector of energy carriers’ transportation:
- consolidation and expansion of energy systems of Kazakhstan, creation of Galaxy system;
- refusal of construction (or further operation) of unprofitable systems of the centralized energy
supply with their replacement by local systems complex of energy supply with limit replacement
of energy consumption of RES (hybrid autonomous systems).
In consumption sector:
- decentralization of energy supply of the industrial enterprises for increase of energy efficiency
by integration of the energy generating and engineering procedures.
XI. "Wildcard"
Wildcard ("wild card", "joker") is an extremely improbable event that can significantly distort the
current trends or modify the framework of scenario planning. Such events are traditionally
attributed the major natural and man-made disasters. In general terms, it is believed that the
"wildcards" is any large-scale events which distort the space of scenario planning and devaluate its
results. For "wild cards" the following conditions are satisfied: the object arises at once and
entirely (sometimes it also disappears at once and entirely) and emergence of object is caused
neither by historical reasons, nor threats/ challenges, as well as reflected gaps. Usually,
"wildcards" or artifacts are meant accidents, but it is reasonable to extend this concept to other
classes of phenomena and events:
- Space solar batteries.
- The new technology allows use of effective big space solar panels which provide the most part of
world energy needs. Energy is clean and renewable, the source is infinite.
- Energy storage break.
- A problem of renewable energy sources is vulnerability, variability and low concentration. It
demands reserve sources and makes the whole system expensive and inefficient. However
revolutionary break in energy storage made with use of renewable energy sources completely
compensate it.
- Sudden world energy crisis
- If oil crisis of 1970s happened again, it would still show the remaining dependence of developed
economies from oil and gas; though it still would show the potential of nuclear energy, as it is
rather tolerant to development of fossil fuel prices in the world market.
- Small-scale atomic engineering
32
- Countries, cities, villages and corporations address to microlarge-scale nuclear reactors to meet
energy needs, which otherwise cannot be reached. In the world oil comes to an end, and we are
increasingly faced with strict restrictions on CO2 emissions. The recent temporary termination of
energy supply of Russia on the EU markets can be an example.
- The wandering plant-eating robot.
- This robot absorbs wood sawdust, leaves and other "biomass" and generates electricity. In the
future, independent robots can wander about the planet in search of crude biomass for energy
consumption and production. EATR robot (Energetically Autonomous Tactical Robot) can change
global systems of energy supply, especially in the remote areas.
- Gas from waste.
- Associated gas.
- The future of factories which make gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel, can be different. In the
future they can be microscopic, and they could work on hydrocarbon garbage which surround us
everywhere.
- Break in cold synthesis leads to revival in the energy markets
- Scientists can find a way to make cold nuclear synthesis that leads to revival in the energy
markets.
- Cheap production of liquid fuel from seaweed replaces oil
- Production of seaweed begins worldwide in all available sunny embankments zones, and in many
internal waters and lakes in 2020. By the middle of 2010s scientists in Europe have discovered a
new type of seaweed from the Mediterranean Sea, which can be used very effectively and very
widely in production of biofuel. It allows receiving cheap energy with much lower level of
environmental pollution.
- The national energy network disappears
- Thanks to a new way of heating of premises and an innovation in electricity generation,
households will become self-sufficient in energy. At last, the need for a national energy supply
system is liquidated.
- Fundamental opening in the field of plasma physics
- The shocking discovery was made in ITER (ITER (initially abbreviation from eng. International
Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor, ITER) — the project of the international experimental
thermonuclear reactor) which allows fast realization of thermonuclear synthesis in practical use in
energy production.
- Entrance to a new energy era.
- Discoveries in physics of materials are made - energy becomes cheaper and its production more
efficient.
- Substantial increase of efficiency of renewable resources.
- Gradual refusal of nuclear energy for the sake of renewable energy sources, which differ in high
efficiency in energy production.
- Pure technologies of use of coal are found.
Opening of pure coal technologies reduces negative aspects of coal burning.
- Significant accident on nuclear power plant.
- Big accident on nuclear power plant with a huge radiation consequence for humans and the
environment.
XII. Risks and threats of the scenario implementation
Scientific technological hazards
Among the main risks of the Scenario implementation, which are scientific and
technological character, are the following:
- Insufficiency of technological level of the conducted basic researches, its discrepancy to
the international standards (information communication, technical and technological,
qualification).
- High technological equipment of foreign competitors.
- Higher quality of products in the foreign companies, including organic.
- Existence of the adjusted marketing system in the leading foreign companies for the
purpose of new sales markets.
33
- The high competition from the leading world companies.
- Total import of foreign technologies, at rather low level of a transfer of knowledge and
competences, through modernization to the detriment of own innovations.
- Emergence of the latest technologies of the basic researches conducting abroad reducing
competitiveness of domestic scientific results.
- Decrease in prestige of science as activity sphere, falling of the social status of the scientist
and outflow of professionals from science.
- Poor development of applied science, i.e. bringing innovations to a stage of pilot and
industrial design.
- Low level of commercialization of innovations.
- Physical aging and an obsolescence of fixed assets of science, non-competitiveness of the
conducted researches.
Measures for minimization: the offered Kazakhstan development on improvement of work
of thermal power plant and combined heat and power plant, adapted installations on RES, as well
as devices on safe and clean energy has to be unique, without analogs in the world, always
claimed in the form of intellectual property in Kazakhstan. Subsequently, it is necessary to draw
up applications for inventions with the possibility of patenting abroad.
Social and economic risks
The Scenario implementation provides financing of business projects due to the budgetary
and extrabudgetary funds. The insufficient profitable base of the budget and bad market condition
of the capital which cannot be predicted with a big accuracy, are capable to lead to insufficient
funding of scientific projects. In this case the actual results from the Scenario implementation will
be worse than the expected results. It is possible to reduce risks of absence (shortcoming) of
financing due to implementation of the public-private partnership scheme for implementation of
the largest projects.
It is also possible to refer the following to the main risks of social and economic nature:
- Loss of export niches in separate industry segments.
- Introduction of restrictions on export/import of resources and production.
- A low susceptibility of economy to innovations. Decrease in a share of expenses for
science in GDP.
- Inflation, difficulties of an exit from a world economic crisis.
- Low interest of business.
- Low costs of business for science (mainly focused on adaptation of the imported
technologies).
- Risks of absence (shortcoming) of financing of scientific development and business
projects.
- Inefficiency of forms of financing of fundamental science.
Measures for minimization: at the first stage – creations of production and product sales are
expected participation of large management company - "Samruk-Kazyna" JSC Fund and its
subsidiary – “Samruk-Energo” JSC National Energy Company for the purpose of "green" energy
development in Kazakhstan. At the second stage: - development of tariffs for "green" energy to
stimulate the acquisition of Kazakhstan energy developments. At the third stage – creation of
innovative companies on the basis of public and private partnership for conducting research and
development, development of an industrial design of innovative power stations, creation of
productions and product sales.
Risks of regulatory base and infrastructure
Risk associated with inadequate study of the legal framework and the lack of a developed system
of interaction between science and business that may hinder the achievement of planned results.
- Reduction of the preferential taxation of the enterprises’ funds, spent for innovations, including
scientific researches.
- Insufficiency of NIS/RIS development
- Toughening of the international ecological legislation in the field of environmental control.
34
Measures for minimization: Proposals for improvement of tariffs on "green" energy, the
introduction of "green" certificates, new measures on promotion of RES introduction and activities
for energy efficiency and energy saving. Stimulation on a legislative basis of scientific work and
innovative activity. Development of the intellectual property market: mandatory estimation of cost
of intellectual property at issue of the security document by state agency; creation of the organized
market of intellectual property by the organization of the intellectual exchange with the qualified
and certified professional participants. To optimize the taxation system regarding providing
preference and preferential taxation for innovative companies and at implementation of activity
connected with investments into scientific research and innovative developments. Improvement of
the ecological legislation.
Policy risks
- Inefficient policy of support of innovative development of fundamental science.
- Uselessness of scientific achievements in economy, patenting abroad.
- Low efficiency of measures of the state support of innovative activity.
- Progressive innovation policies of developed countries.
- Lack of support of scientists on a national level.
- Obsolescence of forms of interaction of the state and fundamental science.
Measures for minimization: Creation of new innovative system, state assessment of the patent at
the time of its issuance, providing the State organized intellectual property market, creation of
innovative companies and issue of their securities. In each Ministry to create Department on
science and innovations which will form the list of critical technologies, to form the budget for
R&D programs, to establish the priority directions of scientific researches, an order of
commercialization of innovative development on industry.
The risks connected with poor control of the Scenario implementation.
Risks are caused by the following probable events: inefficient use of resources, failure to meet
time of activities performance, manifestation of unrecorded factors at a stage of the Scenario
implementation.
Strengthening of control of the provided activities performance course, improvement of the
mechanism of management of the Scenario implementation and, in case of identification of the
factors that could adversely affect the course of the Scenario implementation, timely correction of
the planned activities will allow reducing these risks.
XIII. Long list of products and services
Identification of key goods and services in the field of energy in Kazakhstan was based on the
analysis of "long list of products and services" which, in turn, was based on five mega trends of
development of the energy sector: 1) Reductions of resources, 2) Consolidations and strengthening
of management, 3) Threats of an environmental disaster, 4) Funding science and research and
development and 5) Energy security.
In addition, in view of the weaknesses and opportunities connected with development of the "Safe,
Clean and Efficient Power Engineering" direction in Kazakhstan, were allocated four
subdirections: a) Increase in production of heat and electric energy on coal thermal power plants,
b) Distributed generation of thermal and electric energy, c) Decentralization of energy supply of
the industrial enterprises, energy-technological combination, d) Decentralized energy supply of
remote rural areas on the basis of Hybrid systems of autonomous energy supply (HSAES). For
each of these subdirections is also made the list of relevant products / services and technologies.
XIV. List of key products and services
Key products and services for Kazakhstan in the field of energy: are presented in the following
table 9.
35
Table 9. Key products and services
№
1
Goods
Ekibastuz
bituminous coal
Services
Coal gasification, emitting highenergy components
Need
Deep processing of energy resources
2
Maikuben coal
Deep processing of energy resources
3
Gas
4
Oil
5
Uranium
Pyrolysis of brown coal, emitting
gas, liquid and solid components
Gas supply diversification
through the establishment of a
reliable system of
transportation, storage and
supply
Oil refining by using Western and
Kazakhstan technologies
Deep processing of uranium
6
TPP
7
Instruments for
monitoring and
accounting of
generated energy
CHPP
8
9
10
11
NPP
12
Wind farms (WF)
13
Solar energy
14
Biomass energy
15
Waves energy
16
Geothermal energy
(GE)
Heat pumps (HP)
18
19
20
21
Deep processing of energy resources
Development of nuclear technology with
a complete cycle and total
decomposition of fuel
Improving the quality of generated Replacement of large boilers to small
energy
and medium-sized with high efficiency
Measurement of power parameters Establishment of technical audit system
by special devices
Energy saving and energy
efficiency
GTPP
Use of associated gas
Mini and small HPP Optimization of water resources
17
Deep processing of energy resources
Implementation of energy-saving and
energy-efficient technologies
Deep processing of energy resources
Development of renewable energy
sources (RES)
Development of nuclear
technology with a complete cycle
and total decomposition of fuel
RES development
Development of high
quality energy on the safe
equipment
Removal of local energy
deficit, geographical dispersal
of energy sources
Improving the efficiency of
RES development
solar installations using
new materials
Recycling of trash and remnants of RES development
bioresources
Electricity of coastal zone
RES development: Harnessing wave
energy on the shores of the Caspian Sea
Local electricity and heat supply RES development
Local heat-supply
RES development
Electrical networks Optimal and efficient energy
(EN)
supply
From materials
with lowresistivity
Energy storages and Reducing peak loads
accumulators
Increase of capacity of a power line
Financial
instruments
Increase of investment attractiveness
of energy projects
Attraction of financial
means for
implementation of
«Green» certificates projects
Stimulation of emission reduction
and construction of RES
36
Development of energy storage devices
and batteries
Increase of investment attractiveness
of energy projects
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
Burners and furnace Improving the efficiency of the
equipment
furnace process and reducing
its harmful effects on the
environment by coal burning
Devices and control Environmental pollution status
units of
analysis and study of basic fuel
environmental
properties
pollution
Development of technological
equipment on the basis of Ekibastuz coal
Insurance certificates Assessment of the risk of accidents
at hazardous objects and their
insurance
Parts and units of
Analysis of operating modes and
energy sources (ES) energy consumption of ES,
assessment of power losses,
optimization of e/e transfer system
Secondary energy
Protecting the environment from
resources (SER)
harmful emissions
Providing uninterrupted power
Independent
supply during Emergency
energy sources
Situations
(IES)
Analysis and examination of
Means of
monitoring, control industrial safety at hazardous
facilities
and emergency
protection
Ensuring safety of power facilities
Establishment of technical audit system
Optimization of location of
energy sources and power
lines
Introduction of energy-saving and
energy-efficient technologies
RES development
Ensuring safety of power facilities
Thus as "critical" technologies for Kazakhstan are defined:
1. Aggregated complex of technical means intended for the decentralized, complex energy supply
of the industrial enterprises of various profile.
2. Design and production technology of basic power stations for creation of the Hybrid autonomous
systems of energy supply combining use of traditional and renewable source of energy.
3. Energy use of natural gas. Reduction of oil products use in railway and heavy commercial
vehicles by transfer to natural gas.
4. Technologies of energy use of low-quality and high-ash fuels of Kazakhstan.
5. Technologies directed on energy use of oil-dissolved gas.
6. Technologies of increase of energy efficiency of systems of the centralized heat supply.
7. Technologies of energy saving in housing and communal services.
8. Hardware and methodical complex of electromagnetic induction frequency sounding EMC.
9. 1) creation and introduction of new processes of receiving products with formation of the
smallest amount of waste; 2) development of various types of drainless technological systems and
water reverse cycles on the basis of methods of wastewater treatment;
3) development of systems of processing of industrial wastes in secondary material resources; 4)
creation of the territorial and industrial complexes, with closed structure of material flows of raw
materials and waste inside the complex.
10. Software for calculation of risks of environment, MARKAL model.
11. Concepts of development of ecological-analytical control in the field of environmental
protection.
12. Stimulation of investments in modernization of assets of subjects of natural monopolies,
increase of efficiency and quality of their services, improvements of management and indicators of
activity.
13. The "Green Certificates" entered into the current legislation in the form of securities to reduce
the cost of their implementation.
14. The advancing tariffs on RES over traditional sources for interest of investors.
15. Management of EP (environmental protection) projects, public and private sources of financing,
introduction of logistics in EP projects management.
37
16. Insurance policies on EP.
17. Mapping on the basis of space and visual monitoring.
18. Complex water treatment.
19. Receiving semi-finished products and components from waste.
20. Satellite and instrument monitoring.
21. Creation of a network of instrument monitoring points, satellite and visual monitoring.
22. Annual public release of inventories and development of schemes to attract investors.
23. Technologies of express control of fuels and lubricants composition.
24. Technologies on release of high-quality fuels and lubricants.
25. Local systems of water purification and water supply.
26. Security documents for inventions and innovation proposals.
27. Wind-mill electric stantions, microhydroelectric power station.
28. Vortex wind stations, tidal and wave stations, mini-and small hydroelectric power stations.
29. Solar stations.
30. Heat pumps.
31. Shares and other securities of innovative companies.
32. Energy saving technologies and equipment.
33. New financial instruments adapted for most of the population and SME.
34. Available database on objects and experts of IS of Kazakhstan on the Internet and on various
media with its continuous updating, books and audio-and video records on technical disciplines
taking into account new achievements.
XV. "Green" economy
Decree of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan from May 30, 2013, no. 577, approved the
concept on transition of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the "green economy" (hereinafter Concept), which incorporates the basic principles, approaches of the transition to the “green
economy” and activities in the following areas: 1. Effective management of water resources;
2. Modernization of agricultural industry; 3. Energy saving and increase of energy efficiency;
4. Development of energy industry; 5. Waste management; 6. Decrease in level of air pollution;
7. Preservation and effective management of ecosystems.
Activities plan provides following: 1. amendments and additions to some legislative acts of the
Republic of Kazakhstan on issues of transition of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the "green
economy"; 2. creation of Council for transition to "green economy" at the president of the Republic
of Kazakhstan; 3. staffing of regional "green" clusters.
One of the priority directions of "green economy" development defined the development of
alternative and renewable types of energy on which by 2050 shall consist not less than 50% of
cumulative energy consumption.
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XVI. "Green" energy – EHRO-2017
On November 22 Astana won competition on the right to host the International specialized EXPO2017 exhibition. The theme declared by the capital of Kazakhstan - "Energy of future" - is devoted
to alternative energy sources and "green" technologies. Application of Astana was supported by
103 member countries of the International Exhibition Bureau, only 44 voted contra.
The president of the Republic of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev noted need of development of
innovative technologies, which have direct relevance to the topic of future World Exhibition
"EXPO-2017" in Astana - "Energy of future".
EXRO-2017 in Astana will become the first international exhibition held in the countries of the
Central Asia and the CIS. It is expected that part about 100 countries of the world and about 10
international organizations will take part there. More than 5 million people will attend an
exhibition.
Organization and holding of the International Specialized Exhibition "EXRO- 2017" "Energy of
future" will allow accelerating development of renewable energy sources in Kazakhstan and
development of measures to promote perspective cluster model of alternative energy development
(picture 14).
Picture 14-Competitive exhibits on Expo 2017
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CONCLUSION
According to Methodology of scenarios development, in "Safe, Clean and Efficient
Power engineering" direction is presented the following types of works:
- Studying and analysis of the materials provided by NCSTE on the topic of researches
- Conducting STEEP analysis of factors and trends (social, economic, ecological,
technological, political).
- Definition of external and internal factors and trends, as well as factors and trends,
specific to development of Kazakhstan, which can have significant impact on
development of the direction on the period till 2030.
- Conducting analysis of mutual influence of factors and ranging of factors on degree
of uncertainty and importance.
- SWOT analysis conducting.
- Identification of key factors for the direction development in Kazakhstan.
- Conducting analysis of R&D in the world and identification of the leading countries
on the direction researches.
- Conducting analysis of competences of Kazakhstan in the field of R&D in the
direction.
- Identification of opportunities for development of the direction in Kazakhstan.
- Conducting analysis of the existing and future markets in the "Safe, Clean and
Efficient Power engineering" direction.
- Definition of response strategy, based on earlier analyses.
- Definition of key factors and stakeholders to implement the scenario.
- Identification of risks and threats for successful implementation of the direction
development scenario.
- Visualization of an image of future development of the direction for the period till
2030.
40