ANCWG/2015/010 ANC Project 1 Working Paper – Evidence on land abandonment This paper covers evidence on land abandonment in Scotland. The aims of the project are to: Investigate definitions of land abandonment and attempt to quantify trends in land abandonment over time. This will cover abandonment in terms of area being farmed but could also touch on any depopulation associated with abandonment. If possible, examine reasons for abandonment. If possible, examine land abandonment situation in other regions of the UK. Enquiries on the land abandonment situation in other regions of the UK have not yielded any relevant research or evidence of land abandonment being a significant issue. This paper therefore focuses on the first two aims and is organised in sections covering: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Background Definitions of Land Abandonment Analysis of Agricultural Census and LFASS Claimed Area Remote Sensing Research Risk Factors for Land Abandonment Key Findings There are multiple definitions on land abandonment identified in the academic literature. A number of definitions of land abandonment have been outlined in the annex of this paper. Keenleyside and Tucker (2010) describe actual abandonment as farmland no longer used at all and semi/hidden abandonment as land with a minimal level of maintenance. We find this definition to be useful within the Scottish context. Since 1992 there has been significant destocking across Scotland. This destocking is more prominent in Less Favoured Areas (LFAs) and is most prominent on LFA land which receives a low LFASS payment per hectare. Since 1992 there has been a movement towards the employment of casual staff in Scottish agriculture. Whilst the total agricultural labour force has experienced a relatively small decrease in size over the last twenty years, there has been a large shift away from the employment of regular staff towards casual staff. Since 2007 there has been a 20.5% reduction in LFASS Grazing category A land claimed. Category A land is the most marginal grazing category land and most at risk of reduced management. This decrease in land claimed may suggest a reduction in management activity, and hence land abandonment. 1 ANCWG/2015/010 1. Background The Less Favoured Area Support Scheme (LFASS) will be replaced with a new scheme, Areas facing Natural Constraint (ANCs) by 2018. The rationale for payments to ANCs is presented in the European Commission measure fiche: Payments in mountain areas or in other areas facing natural or other specific constraints (ANCs) aim at compensating farmers in total or partially for disadvantages to which the agricultural production is exposed due to natural or other specific constraints in their area of activity. Such compensation shall allow farmers to continue agricultural land management in order to prevent land abandonment as a precondition for maintaining the countryside and sustainable farming systems in the areas concerned. 2. Definitions of Land Abandonment There is an wide literature on land abandonment in the EU context, covering definitions, measurement, causes, risk factors leading to abandonment and the outcomes associated with abandonment. This is no single definition of land abandonment (see Annex 1 for a summary of definitions). However, Keenleyside and Tucker1 provide a definition we judge to be useful in the Scottish Context: “Farmland abandonment can be a complex and gradual process, starting with progressive marginalisation (i.e. withdrawal of management) that leads initially to a reduction in farming intensity (eg lower stocking rates or concentration of management in a reduced area of the farm or infrequent cultivations). Thus it can be difficult to define and recognise abandonment of various degrees, especially since it can also be temporary, transitional or permanent. Where the farmland is not used at all it can be characterised as actual abandonment. The vegetation may change through natural succession into tall herb, bush and forest ecosystems after a period, depending on climatic and soil conditions etc. Where the land is used by the farmer but with a very low level of management, it can be described as semi-abandonment or hidden abandonment. The land is not formally abandoned and is subject to some form of management, which might be simply to keep it available for future use, for example for tourism. Such land may also be subject to the minimum management necessary to meet cross-compliance requirements (i.e. certain environmental conditions that must be met) by all those claiming direct payments so that the single farm payments and other CAP payments can be 1 Keenleyside, C and Tucker, G M (2010) Farmland Abandonment in the EU: an Assessment of Trends and Prospects. Report prepared for WWF. Institute for European Environmental Policy, London. 2 ANCWG/2015/010 claimed. Very extensive or intermittent farming operations may also fall into this category, not least on semi-subsistence farms. Such extensive farming is generally associated with very low or zero direct economic returns, but may be continued for social reasons, to support other farm income streams (eg from hunting and tourism) or for nature and landscape conservation. Transitional abandonment has been observed particularly in EU-12 as a result of restructuring and land reforms, and in EU-15 as a result of compulsory set-aside (until this was abolished in 2008), or as a result of land use change”. The literature highlights that abandonment is a gradual process where the limits of different land uses are not clear or precise. The cessation of management is a necessary feature of abandonment but destocking and reductions in management effort can lead to semi-abandoned land which is viable for future use but is at risk of actual abandonment. Furthermore, grazing by wild deer complicates the issue in Scotland as grazing continues to occur despite cessation of management. Abandonment is also associated with successional change in vegetation from less to more woody vegetation. As short term changes in land use can happen for a variety of reasons a longer period of monitoring of land management and vegetation change can help to establish if land has been abandoned (see section 4 below). The term land abandonment has negative connotations but it is not always clear it is detrimental (e.g. there are situations where environmental benefits can result from the cessation of management). Some definitions of abandonment include cultural and social dimensions encompassing for instance the loss of employment or rural depopulation, other research points to demographic change as a cause of abandonment. This paper has focused on changes in agricultural labour as the most relevant source of population data (see section 3 below). As there is no single definition of land abandonment a “data led” approach is being pursued where findings from different sources can be triangulated to form a judgement on the situation in Scotland. 3. Analysis of Census and LFASS Scheme Data Two areas of Scottish Government data have been identified as possible sources of evidence on land abandonment in Scotland. The first source is the Scottish Agricultural Census. The AgCensus provides data on livestock numbers, stocking density of land and the agricultural workforce. Decreases in any of these indicators have been linked to farmland abandonment. The second source of evidence is claims made to the Less Favoured Area Support Scheme (LFASS). LFASS claims provides data on the area of grazing land managed within four different grazing categories which are defined by historic (2009) production levels outlined in the following table: 3 ANCWG/2015/010 Table 1: LFASS Grazing Categories Grazing Category A B C D Minimum Stocking Density 0.09 Livestock Units/ha 0.15 Livestock units/ha 0.30 Livestock Units/ha 0.45 Livestock units/ha Census data 1992-2014 The following table summarises the changes in different indicators from the Scottish Agricultural Census between the years 1992 and 2014 for “low”, “mid” and “high” LFASS payment parishes. The 1992 was selected as the starting point to match data to the remote sensing analysis. Low LFASS Parishes have been defined as those whose average LFASS payment per hectare is less the £20, Mid LFASS Parishes are between £20 and £40 per hectare, High LFASS Parishes are those above £40 per hectare. The larger, more remote parishes with lower stocking densities tend to receive lower levels of LFASS payment per hectare, whilst the more intensive agricultural parishes tend to receive higher LFASS payments per hectare. This is demonstrated in the maps below. These bands were selected to reflect this. Figures 1 and 2: 2014 LFASS Payment Per Hectare and Stocking Density by Parish 4 ANCWG/2015/010 Table 2: Livestock and Farm Area Changes Since 1992 Category Grazing livestock Dairy Cows Beef Suckler Cows Total Cattle Breeding Ewes Total Sheep Livestock units Forage area Area of farms with Grazing Livestock (Ha) Stocking density Low LFASS Parishes % Change since 1992 -39% -39% -20% -26% -42% -41% -38% -10% Mid LFASS Parishes% Change since 1992 -27% -25% -15% -15% -29% -29% -28% -7% High LFASS Parishes% Change since 1992 -23% -26% -4% -11% -29% -29% -23% -5% Scottish Average% Change since 1992 -30% -27% -12% -16% -33% -33% -29% -9% -22% -29% -13% -20% -20% -18% -18% -22% Since 1992, Scotland has experienced a decrease in total livestock units. This was most pronounced in Low LFASS Parishes which have seen the largest percentage decreases in livestock numbers. When looking at livestock units as a whole, Low LFASS Parishes have experienced a 38% reduction, compared to a 29% fall across Scotland as a whole. This suggests the most marginal and remote areas have experienced a greater reduction in livestock when compared with other areas in Scotland. Over the same period there was also a reduction in both forage area and the total area of farms that managed grazing livestock across Scotland as whole. Again this reduction was most prominent in Low LFASS Parishes. Finally there has been a significant fall of 29% in the stocking density of Low LFASS parishes. This compares with the Scottish average of a 22% decrease. Mid and High LFASS parishes also experienced decreases in their stocking rates between 1992 and 2014 of 20% and 18% respectively. The reduction in both the total area of land managed and the intensity of its management to points towards some actual or semi land abandonment since 1992. Some of this land could however have been put to other uses such as forestry, which may be not reflected here. LFASS Claimed Grazing Area Data, 2007 and 2013 The tables below outline the change LFASS Grazing Category area between 2007 and 2013: Table 3: Change in Claimed Grazing Category Area Grazing Category A B C D Total 2007 Area (Ha) 1,727,059 695,555 348,929 606,683 3,378,226 2013 Area (Ha) 1,372,205 647,371 325,799 569,946 2,915,321 Difference -354,855 -48,183 -23,131 -36,737 -462,905 % Change -20.5% -6.9% -6.6% -6.1% -13.7% 5 ANCWG/2015/010 Table 4: Number of Parishes with a Change in Claimed Grazing Category Area Grazing Category A B C D Total Parishes with an increase in Area Count Area 143 88,135 190 40,382 204 23,678 259 27,503 234 133,398 Parishes with a decrease in Area Count Area 410 -442,990 369 -88,565 393 -46,808 463 -64,240 538 -596,303 Maps illustrating this information by parish are also provided below: Figures 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7: Change in Claimed Grazing Category Area 6 ANCWG/2015/010 7 ANCWG/2015/010 8 ANCWG/2015/010 Between 2007 and 2013 the total area LFASS grazing category land fell by almost 463,000 Ha. This change was largely driven by a reduction in the area of the least intensive grazing category, A. Grazing category A land fell by 355,000 Ha over the 2007 and 2013 period. The other categories saw decreases of between 23,000 and 49,000 Ha. Across Scotland, where large decreases in claimed grazing area occurred, they tended be in the Highlands, North East and Island Parishes. This is demonstrated in the maps above. Furthermore where large decreases in claimed parish grazing area were noted, they tended to occur in grazing category A. The evidence indicates between 2007 and 2013 there has been a decrease in the claimed area of grazing land, possibly reflecting a reduction in management. This decline has been mainly focused in the most remote and marginal land in LFASS areas, grazing category A. This information may suggest some land abandonment occurred in LFASS areas between 2007 and 2013. Changes in Agricultural Labour Rural emigration and the availability of farm workers is described as a key cause of land abandonment.2 The following chart displays the long-term changes in agricultural employment in Scotland: Figure 8: Long Term Trend in Agricultural Labour The chart demonstrates the long term decline in the agricultural workforce which has levelled off in the last 20-25 years. This reflects changes relating to increasing mechanisation and a lower reliance on labour in agriculture. 2 http://agrienv.jrc.ec.europa.eu/publications/pdfs/JRC46185_Final_Version.pdf 9 ANCWG/2015/010 The tables below outline the number of people employed in 1992 and 2014 in low, mid and high LFASS parishes, followed by the percentage change in this level of employment. Tables 5, 6 and 7: Changes in Agricultural Employment Category Occupier Total Spouse Total Total Casual Staff Total Regular Staff Total agricultural workforce Category Occupier Total Spouse Total Total Casual Staff Total Regular Staff Total agricultural workforce Category Occupier Total Spouse Total Total Casual Staff Total Regular Staff Total agricultural workforce Low LFASS Parishes 1992 7,929 3,105 798 6,095 Mid LFASS Parishes 1992 13,806 6,287 1,532 13,083 High LFASS Parishes 1992 6,441 2,948 703 5,540 Scottish Average 1992 28,176 12,340 3,033 24,718 17,927 34,708 15,632 68,267 Low LFASS Parishes 2014 7,960 3,553 2,843 5,699 Mid LFASS Parishes 2014 12,741 6,316 2,505 10,359 High LFASS Parishes 2014 5,588 2,827 1,318 4,590 Scottish Average 2014 26,289 12,696 6,666 20,648 20,055 31,921 14,323 0 Low LFASS Parishes % Change 19922014 0.39% 14.43% 256.27% -6.50% Mid LFASS Parishes% Change 19922014 -7.71% 0.46% 63.51% -20.82% High LFASS Parishes% Change 19922014 -13.24% -4.10% 87.48% -17.15% Scottish Average% Change 19922014 -6.70% 2.88% 119.78% -16.47% 11.87% -8.03% -8.37% -2.88% Since 1992 the total Scottish agricultural workforce has fallen by around 3%. This total decrease has been driven by a reduction in regular staff and the number of occupiers. Despite this fall in total workforce, during this time the total number of casual staff more than doubled from 3,033 to 6,666. Whilst there has been a total fall in the agricultural workforce across Scotland, Low LFASS parishes saw an increase in their total agricultural workforce by 12% over the 1992-2014 period. This is in contrast to mid- and high LFASS parishes who have both witnessed an 8% fall in their total agricultural workforces. This increase in the total agricultural workforce was primarily driven by casual staff, which increased by 2,045 over the 1992-2014 period. This represents an increase of 256%. The number of regular staff in low-LFASS parishes however dropped by 396 over this period, a reduction of 6.5%. The patterns of change in agricultural workforce is fairly consistent across low, mid and high LFASS parishes. In all three categories there has been a movement towards more casual staff and a decrease in regular staff. The number of occupiers has fallen in both mid and high LFASS parishes, whilst staying fairly level in low LFASS parishes. 10 ANCWG/2015/010 The evidence on agricultural workforce changes indicates there has been a movement of rural workers away from full-time jobs in agriculture. Whilst low LFASS parishes have seen an increase in total agricultural workforce since 1992, this has primarily been driven by casual staff. These workers tend to be seasonal and may not live in the area all year round. The contrast to this is a reduction in regular staff who are more likely to live in those parishes all year round. Further to this, mid- and high LFASS parishes have seen large reductions in their regular staff workforce of 21% and 17% respectively. These trends in agricultural workforce practises could be a reflection of reduced activity leading to fewer jobs in remote less favoured areas. It should be noted this initial analysis is based on a headcount approach. The final ANC report will also reflect changes in Standard Labour Requirements (SLRs). 4. Remote Sensing Research The Scottish Government has commissioned research to gather and analyse remote sensing data to attempt to quantify the extent to which land abandonment has occurred in Scotland. Some definitions of abandonment emphasise successional change in vegetation from less to more woody vegetation where abandonment leads to an increase in above-ground biomass. Research on land abandonment in Europe and Russia has demonstrated that regardless of climate, soil type or original land use (except in the case of agroforestry or tree-based cropping such as olives/stone fruit), the abandonment of land results in an upwards trend in vegetation mass indices (NDVI values). The NDVI is a relatively simple index calculated from remote sensing imagery, and has a strong correlation with above-ground biomass. This upward trend in NDVI reflects the vegetation succession that follows land abandonment, and requires several years to be confidently identified. The analysis will look at long term trends accepting that satellite coverage means the data does not extend to all of Scotland in all years. The following years have been selected for investigation: 1975, 1980, 1992, 2000, 2005 and 2015. As results become available they will be shared with this working group. 5. Risk Factors for Land Abandonment Risk factors for land abandonment drawn from the academic and grey literature are summarised in the box below. The issues highlighted relate to the prevailing economic, institutional and demographic conditions. The mechanism proposed in the Rural Development regulation (a per hectare payment rate on constrained land) arguably only addresses one of the factors below, farm viability: 11 ANCWG/2015/010 Land Abandonment - Risk Factors Identified in Literature Poor environmental / biophysical suitability for agriculture Land degradation Low farm stability and viability (e.g. low farm income, farm holder’s age & qualification levels, lack of investment). Regional factors (e.g. local land markets, previous trends in abandonment and critical mass of activity). Accessibility Market Globalisation Opportunities outside agriculture Demographic Structure (availability of farm workers can drive abandonment) Institutional/ Policy Frameworks Previous Scottish Government analysis on LFASS defined the risk of land abandonment based on trends in livestock density, by parish, over a period of a few years. The suggestion was that those with low density and downwards trajectory were at greatest risk of abandonment. Figures 9 and 10: Risk of Land Abandonment 12 ANCWG/2015/010 Causes and Risk Indicators of Land Abandonment A report by the Joint Research Centre at the European Commission (2008) reviewed evidence on farmland abandonment. The report indicated there were four areas which explain farmland abandonment: 1. 2. 3. 4. Geographic, ecological and agronomic factors Demographic and socio-economic factors Policy effects Historical factors Within these four areas the report describes both risk indicators which predict land abandonment and the factors which actually cause of land abandonment. These risk indicators and causes have been summarised in the tables below along with an brief explanation of the link to land abandonment and any available Scottish specific information: 1. Geographic, ecological and agronomic factors Cause/Risk Indictor of Land Abandonment Low Average Temperature Degree Day Explanation Evidence in Scotland Up to a certain temperature, higher heat totals provides greater agricultural yields. The lower yields are experienced in areas with low degree days make it more difficult for farms to complete, leading to land abandonment. Areas in Scotland with low degree days tend to be the more constrained and remote areas. These are the areas which have been identified as most likely to experience land abandonment. Steepness of slopes. Steeper of slopes affects the accessibility of land making it more difficult to exploit. Small field size Small fields were found to be more difficult to cultivate. Mapping data on the number of degree days is available for Scotland and is presently being considered for use in the designation of the new ANC Scheme. Steep, rough grazing slopes are often found in the more constrained regions of Scotland. Scottish average farm size is much larger than the rest of the UK and Europe at over 100 Ha. The constrained areas in Scotland which are more likely to experience land abandonment actually have the larger average holding sizes when compared to less 13 ANCWG/2015/010 constrained areas. This is illustrated on the left hand side map below this table. High distance of road to farmland High distance of road to farmland can for example cause accessibility issues or make it more difficult to get produce to market. Poor soil quality or shallow soil Poor soil quality or shallow soil provide lower yields. Evolution of farming systems The evolution of farming systems, for example reductions in livestock numbers led to a lower demand for crops, was also found to be related to land abandonment. This high average disguises a wide range of sizes, from small crofts to large estates. In 2010 39% of holdings in the North and West of Scotland had less than 5 hectares of utilised agricultural area. A distance of 800m or more to a metalled road was used as an indicator of land abandonment in a report defining vulnerable areas in Scotland by Rural Analysis Associates. The report found the most vulnerable areas of Scotland to be concentrated in the Highlands and Islands. The area’s most likely to be at risk of land abandonment in Scotland tend to have poorer soil quality. This is illustrated in the Land Capability for Agriculture (LCA) map of Scotland below (right hand side). - 14 ANCWG/2015/010 Figures 11 and 12: Average Holding size 2014 and Land Capability for Agriculture in Scotland Sources: Left Hand Side – RESAS, 2015, Right Hand Side – JHI, 2012 2. Demographic and socio-economic factors Cause/Risk Indictor of Land Abandonment Rural emigration Low farm economic viability and profit margins Low land prices Explanation Evidence in Scotland As farm workers leave rural areas, smaller sized farms became less viable, causing land abandonment As might be expected, low economic viability of land can lead to the end of land being actively managed. A correlation between low land prices and land abandonment was observed in France and therefore is seen as a risk indicator of land abandonment. See above for evidence on changes in agricultural labour. Evidence on this is presented in the Sustainable Farming Systems working paper (Project 4). The average value of land and buildings for a Scottish farm in 2014 was £1.14m. The value of land and buildings in LFA farm types tends to be slightly lower. E.g. Specialist 15 ANCWG/2015/010 Inheritance or succession challenges A lack of persons to inherit the farm or disagreements within a family preventing the farms sale were would to be linked to land abandonment. Sheep (LFA) – £546k, Specialist Beef (LFA) – £817k, Other Cattle and Sheep (LFA) £838k. 78% of tenant farmers in Scotland have indicated they had an eligible successor in place to pass on their tenancy to. Of this group, 72% said they had a successor who was willing to take on all or some of their tenancies. 54% of owner occupiers said they planned to pass on the business to someone else and 18% said they planned to sell on their business. Retirement of older generation Retirement of older generation who were willing to accept a lower standard of living was found to contribute to an increase in land abandonment. 46% of crofters indicated they have a succession plan for their croft. 18% of owner-occupiers planned to never retire. This compared to 12% of tenant farmers who never plan to retire. Common reasons cited for why they did not plan to retire were they would not want to stop farming and they did not think they would not have anything else to do. Succession and non-retirement are risk factors for semi abandonment as the farmer may reduce management activity. 3. Policy effects Cause/Risk Indictor of Land Abandonment Less Favoured Area support Explanation Evidence in Scotland Less Favoured Area support found to limit land abandonment and maintain Data from the Farm Accounts Survey in Scotland has found that LFA Businesses are more 16 ANCWG/2015/010 rural societies despite the poor soil quality often found on these farms. reliant on direct subsidies to maintain profitability when compared to the Scottish average. There is therefore evidence to suggest LFASS and Pillar 1 subsidies has acted as a buffer to land abandonment in Scotland. Low CAP payments Requirements of GAEC Low CAP payments per hectare (from both pillars) were identified as risk indicators of land abandonment. Requirements of Good Agricultural and Environmental Conditions (GAEC) were found to cause land abandonment in some eastern European countries. Further evidence on this can be found in the Sustainable Farming Systems working paper (Project 4). Early projections for funding under the new Pillar 1 payment scheme indicate farmers in remote and constrained rough grazing areas are likely to see an increase in their funding by 2019. This may help prevent future land abandonment. - 4. Historical factors were mainly related identified in Eastern European countries, concerning the move from communism to privatisation, lower government support and the adoption of new management rules under the CAP. These factors are not relevant to land abandonment in Scotland. 17 ANCWG/2015/010 ANNEX 1 - DEFINITIONS OF LAND ABANDONMENT Keenleyside, C and Tucker, G M (2010) Farmland Abandonment in the EU: an Assessment of Trends and Prospects. Report prepared for WWF. Institute for European Environmental Policy, London. Where the farmland is not used at all it can be characterised as actual abandonment. Where the land is used by the farmer but with a very low level of management, it can be described as semi-abandonment or hidden abandonment. Transitional abandonment has been observed particularly in EU-12 as a result of restructuring and land reforms, and in EU-15 as a result of compulsory set-aside (until this was abolished in 2008), or as a result of land use change. Joint Research Council “Assessing the Risk of Farmland Abandonment in the EU” (2013) There is no single definition of the terms “land abandonment” or “abandoned land” The expert panel coordinated by the JRC proposed the following definition: ‘Farmland abandonment is a cessation of management which leads to undesirable changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services’. Pointereau et al. (2008). Analysis of Farmland Abandonment and the Extent and Location of Agricultural Areas that are Actually Abandoned or are in Risk to be Abandoned. EUR 23411EN – 2008, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, JRC. The estimate of abandoned farmland or land in the process of abandonment is difficult because the limits of the different land uses are not clear and precise, as for example between rough grassland which is only grazed several weeks per year and a non-utilised land which was abandoned six years ago. In both cases, shrubs and tall herbs will be found. The presence of grazing animals is the only difference. Abandoned land definitions are complex and results will be different according to the chosen definition. Some authors have also given their point of view on the farmland abandonment definition: o “A shift from a given pattern of land use (often extensive/traditional farmland) to a less intensive one caused by the reduction of human activity, leading to a recovery of scrublands and eventually forest (but alternative pattern possible).” (Danilo, 2003) o “Land abandonment is not reduced to stopping farming exploitation but it can also correspond to a change in the farm use of the soil, from a traditional use to a less intensive use.” (Baudry, 1991) o “The land is considered as abandoned land when it’s no longer used as an economic resource.” (Coppola, 2004) o “Abandoned land is an unused resource, both economically and environmentally.” (Keenleyside, 2004) o ”A land which has not been used for agricultural production without alternative exploitation (forestry, urbanisation) covered all the year by a vegetal layer.” (Bühnemann, 1979) The different definition provided by literature proves the complexity of farmland abandonment. These definitions depend on the type of their approach (administrative, social…see Table 4) and are adaptable to the context of the country. Thus, some countries use a qualitative definition of abandoned land (such as a description of the condition of the land) whereas others have a quantitative definition (number of years without cultivation or grazing). In all cases, it is acknowledged that 18 ANCWG/2015/010 farmland is considered to be abandoned when there are no more farming functions. Soil sealing and tree plantation are never considered as a process of farmland abandonment. 19