Climate Change in the Arctic: Economic Boon or
Environmental Crisis?
Introduction
A recent article published in the New York Times, Race Is On as Ice Melt Reveals Arctic Treasure,
highlights the possible economic boon as well as a possible environmental crisis due to the changes in
the extent of sea ice in Arctic Ocean. This change is due to Earth’s increasing temperature. Over the past
two centuries, Earth’s mean annual temperature has increased 1°F (0.6°C). In the Arctic region, the
mean annual temperature has changed more drastically—5 to 7°F (3 to 4°C).
Issue
Although there are many issues related to the decrease of Arctic sea ice, such as Arctic oil exploration
and mining, this investigation will address the following question:
If the Arctic shipping routes are viable, should they be exploited?
The possibility of an ice-free passage through the Arctic Ocean has been explored for centuries (e.g. the
Northwest Passage). A route, however, has been proven elusive due to the extensive coverage of the
Arctic sea ice. Due to the decrease of this sea ice, governments and shipping companies, among others,
wonder if Arctic shipping routes (e.g. The Northwest Passage, The Northern Sea Route) are possible.
Although these routes might be a boon for exporters, others, however, wonder if these routes should be
even considered due to the environmental impacts such as increased pollution.
Task and Learning Goals
The outcome for this activity is to respond to the research question (see above) by completing all five
parts (listed below), including writing an op-ed report intended to be published in a newspaper or blog.
The “parts” listed below identifies each phase of the activity which aligns with the 5E learning cycle. The
learning goal is listed below each title.
Part 1: Sea Ice, Shipping, and Seasons (Engage)
Describe changes of Arctic sea ice and assess current shipping routes with the anticipated ones
in the Arctic Ocean.
Part 2: Global Climate Change and Arctic Sea Ice (Explore)
Draw evidence-based conclusions related to global climate change and Arctic sea ice from
multiple lines of evidence, and to make connections between these conclusions with the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on climate change.
Part 3: Forecasting Global Climate Change—using models (Explain)
Analyze climate system models that forecast changes of global temperature and then predict
the extent of Arctic sea ice associated with the anticipated shipping routes.
Part 4: Economic and Environmental Impacts of Arctic Shipping (Elaborate)
Research the future economic and environmental impacts, both pros and cons, of shipping
routes in the Arctic Ocean.
Part 5: Climate Change in the Arctic—Economic Boon or Environmental Crisis? (Evaluate)
Write an op-ed report that responds to the question, “If the Arctic shipping routes are viable,
should they be exploited?”
Task Assessment:
Parts 1-4 are intended to help you complete Part 5. Thus, only the op-ed report will be formally
assessed. The op-ed report should have the following sections and addresses each bulleted item within
each section. Note: The above op-ed report does not have a “set amount” of paragraphs, but try to
limit your paper to 3-4 pages.
Section 1: Identifies the Socio-scientific Issue
 Elicits the research question and why it is significant to society
 Describes changes of the Arctic sea ice seasonally and over the past several decades
 Describes current shipping routes that might most be affected by the opening of the Arctic
Section 2: Describes Evidence of Climate Change
 Analyzes multiple lines of evidence that describes the correlation between atmospheric carbon
dioxide and global temperature.
 Analyzes multiple lines of evidence (using different sources) that describes the effects of
changes of global temperature on sea ice.
 Links the evidence-based conclusions from the above analyses with the conclusions from the
IPCC report.
Section 3: Describes Future Arctic Sea Ice and Shipping
 Analyzes the “air temperature” Community Climate System Model for the Arctic region, both
spatially and temporally.
 Predicts the future extent of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean based on the “air temperature”
Community Climate System Model.
 Predicts the most viable shipping routes in the Arctic. Evidence is used from the models and the
literature.
Section 4: Synthesizes Research of the Economic and the Environmental Impacts of Arctic Shipping
 Discusses the pros and cons of the future economic impacts of Arctic Shipping.
 Discusses the pros and cons of the future environmental impacts of Arctic Shipping.
Section 5: Responds to the Research Question
 Suggests a strong statement that responds to the question: If the Arctic shipping routes are
viable, should they be exploited? Statement aligns with and is supported by data and research
literature.
Rubric:
The rubric for this op-ed report is located at the end of this document. Please review each performance
level before you submit your final report.
Other important Directions
1. Record all of your notes on this handout (either electronically or handwritten). You will use the
data and research information from this handout to write your op-ed report.
2. Since there are many web links that you will need to access during this activity, it is suggested
that you have the electronic version of this handout available so that you can click on the web
link rather than typing each one into your web browser.
Link: http://serc.carleton.edu/dev/integrate/teaching_materials/secondary/student_materials/shipping_routes.html
Part 1: Sea ice, shipping, and seasons
The goal for Part 1 is to describe changes of Arctic sea ice and to assess current shipping routes with the
proposed ones (e.g. the Northwest Passage) in the Arctic Ocean. As a reminder the research question
for this activity is: If the Arctic shipping routes are viable, should they be exploited?
To address the above goal, first, watch the video (see link below) that introduces the issue of global
climate change and Arctic shipping. Second, analyze current trends in the extent of Arctic sea ice
seasonally and over the past several decades and then describe how these changes might affect
shipping. Third, describe present-day shipping routes and then compare them to the possible ones in
the Arctic. Fourth, select three existing shipping routes that would benefit the most if the Arctic was
open to shipping. You can record the above information you collect in the graphic organizers that follow.
After you complete this section, you will be expected to summarize what you learned with the class.
1. According to CBC, or Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, a Canadian scientist claims the Arctic
Ocean will be open for regular commercial shipping within the next five to ten years, but
changing ice conditions could also bring new hazards to ships. Watch the CBC news video titled
“Arctic Ocean Could be Open for Shipping in 5-10 Years” and complete Table 1 below.
Table 1:
What are some
findings from the
research conducted
by the scientists?
What are the
possible economic
and environmental
about the Arctic sea
ice and shipping?
List your reactions
to the video?
The CBC video is from Newslook. The link to this video is: http://www.newslook.com/videos/431912-arctic-ocean-couldbe-open-for-shipping-in-5-10-years
2. The coverage of Arctic sea ice changes seasonally and from year to year. Go to the Arctic Sea Ice
and News and Analysis (from the National Snow & Ice Data Center) and select three sets of data
that describes the changes in Arctic sea ice seasonally and over the past several decades. Then,
hypothesize how these changes in Arctic sea ice might affect global shipping. Please use Table 2
to complete this task.
Table 2
Analysis of the changes of Arctic sea ice over time
Possible effects of the changes of
Arctic sea ice on shipping
Name of Data Set:
Name of Data Set:
Name of Data Set:
The link to the National Snow and Ice Data Center: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
3. Next, compare current major shipping routes and passages with the possible ones in the Arctic.
First, read the selected chapters from The Geography of Transport Systems website (see Table
3). Then, describe each strategic passage and shipping route, both current and the ones
proposed in the Arctic. Record this in Table 4. Also, please print the “Main Maritime Shipping
Routes” and the “Polar Shipping Routes” maps, you will need them for future reference.
Table 3
Shipping Routes and Passages
Strategic Maritime Passages (CH
1, Application 2)
Description of Chapter
Maritime Routes, Panama Canal,
Suez Canal, The Strait of Malacca
International Shipping Routes
(CH 1, Application 2)
Graphic—depicts density of
global shipping routes
http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/
eng/ch1en/appl1en/maritimeroutes
.html
Main Maritime Shipping Routes
(CH 3, Concept 3)
PRINT THIS MAP
Polar Shipping Routes (CH 1,
Concept 1)
PRINT THIS MAP
Graphic—depicts main shipping
routes and major and minor
strategic maritime passages
Graphic—depicts possible
shipping routes in the Arctic
http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/
eng/ch3en/conc3en/main_maritime
_shipping_routes.html
Table 4
Shipping Routes and
Passages
Strategic Maritime
Passages (CH 1,
Application 2)
International Shipping
Routes (CH 1,
Application 2)
Main Maritime
Shipping Routes (CH 3,
Concept 3)
Polar Shipping Routes
(CH 1, Concept 1)
Description
Direct Link
http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/
eng/ch1en/appl1en/ch1a2en.html
http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/
eng/ch1en/conc1en/polarroutes.ht
ml
4. Identify three current shipping routes that might be the most affected by the proposed polar
shipping routes. Use the Google Earth distance tool to calculate the differences in distances
between the current shipping routes with the proposed ones (e.g. the Northwest Passage, the
Northern Sea Route. Record this in Table 5.
NOTE: If you are unfamiliar the distance tool, follow the directions below.
Directions for using the Google Distance Tool
i.
Please take out the following maps: Main Maritime Shipping Routes; Polar Shipping Routes
ii.
Open Google Earth
iii.
In the upper left-hand corner, click on “tools” and then “ruler.”
iv.
In the ruler pop-up window, click path. Choose the desired units (e.g. km, miles).
v.
Trace the desired path between two major ports (e.g. between NYC and Tokyo) for the current
and the proposed shipping routes.
vi.
Record the difference in distance between the current and proposed routes
Table 5
Distance of Current Shipping
Route (e.g. Suez Canal Route)
Distance of Proposed Shipping
Route (e.g. NW passage)
Difference
Wrap-up
5. Based on the research information and data collected from questions 1-4, respond to the
following questions:
a. What might be the impact on international shipping if Arctic shipping routes were
opened for commerce? Please consider both economic and environmental effects.
b. Why might this issue be important?
c. What are some possible solutions to the issue?
d. Overall, did your initial reactions from the video “Arctic Ocean Could be Open for
Shipping in 5-10 Years“ change?
Part 2: Global Climate Change and Arctic Sea Ice
The goal for Part 2 is to draw evidence-based conclusions related to global climate change and Arctic sea
ice from multiple lines of evidence, and to make connections between these conclusions with the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on climate change. To meet the above goal,
you will first analyze multiple sets of data that examines the relationship between atmospheric carbon
dioxide and global temperature. Second, you will analyze multiple sets of data in order to examine the
effects of changing global temperature on Arctic sea ice. Third, you will share your findings with your
classmates. Finally, you will summarize the connections between your findings and the IPCC’s findings
on climate change and sea ice.
Investigation 1: Carbon Dioxide and Global Temperature
Research Question: What correlation exists between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global
temperature?
Data and Evidence: To respond to the research question, use the three data sources from Table 6.
Table 6: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Global Surface Temperature Data Sources
Resource
Description
Link
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/cc
NOAA Earth System Research
Trends in Atmospheric Carbon
Laboratory CO2 levels at Mauna
Dioxide and Global Temperature gg/trends/mlo.html#mlo_growth
Loa
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
NASA—Goddard Institute for
Global Surface Temperature
graphs_v3/
Space Studies
Analysis
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
NASA—Goddard Institute for
Global Surface Temperature
Space Studies
Analysis
Conclusions: What evidence-based conclusions can you draw? Be certain to explicitly respond to the
research question.
Investigation 2: Global Temperature and Sea Ice
Research Question: To what extent do changes to global temperature affect sea ice?
Data and Evidence: To respond to the research question by selecting from the data sources below
(NOTE—click on the title of the data set that is listed in Table 7). Record this evidence after the Table 7.
Table 7: Google Earth Data Sources (KML files)
Resource
Title of Data Set
National Snow &
Sea Ice: Minimum and Maximum
Ice Data Center
Extents**
NOAA Tides and
Sea Level Trends
Currents
NOAA Tides and
Sea Level Anomalies (data includes
Currents
month and year)
Link
http://nsidc.org/data/virtual_globes/
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/goo
gleearth.shtml
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/goo
gleearth.shtml
NOTE: ** The sea ice data is a zip file. Once you click on the link, a folder should open automatically.
Click on the only “KML” file in the folder. This will automatically upload the data into Google Earth.
Conclusions: What evidence-based conclusions can you draw? Be certain to explicitly respond to the
research question.
Sharing Your Findings:
Next, share your findings with your classmates. How do your findings compare to others? Record what
you learned below.
Making Connections:
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for the
assessment of climate change. This organization publishes reports on climate change. To learn more
about this organization, please go to their website at http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm.
Download the latest report at:
2007 IPCC Summary Report: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf
Wrap-up/Conclusions
What is correlation among global surface temperatures, carbon dioxide, and coverage of Arctic sea ice
(see Investigation 1 and Investigation 2)? How does the 2007 IPCC report align with the research
findings?
Part 3: Forecasting Global Climate Change—using models
The goal for Part 3 of this activity is to analyze climate system models that forecast changes of global
temperature and then predict the extent of Arctic sea ice associated with the proposed shipping routes.
To meet this goal, analyze the climate system forecast models in the Arctic region. Then, predict the
extent of the Arctic sea ice for the upcoming decades. Finally, assess if shipping routes are plausible in
the Arctic based on these climate and sea ice predictions. Follow the guidelines below to complete this
task.
Making Predictions
1. Reanalyze the changes in Arctic Sea ice from 1979 to present again (from Part 1). Describe how
the extent of the Arctic sea ice changed. How does this correlate with air temperature changes?
Record this analysis in Table 9 below. This analysis is the baseline to predict the extent of the
Arctic sea ice will change using various forecast models (see Table 8).
Table 8: Climate Prediction Models (KML files)
Resource
Description
Link
Community Climate System
NCAR: Community Climate
Model (CCSM) Model Runs:
http://gis.ucar.edu/data/climate/kml
System Model (CCSM)
Global Air Temperature
2. Analyze the climate prediction models for the entire Arctic region. Use the NCAR Community
Climate System Model in Table 8. Examine and record your analysis for each of the following
"Global Air Temperature" models: a) all scenarios, b) middle of the road, c) best case, and d)
worst case. Record the analysis of these forecast models in Table 9.
NOTE: Please be sure to analyze the data both spatially (e.g. the Arctic Region) as well as
temporally (e.g. over the time period of the prediction models).
3. In Table 9, predict the extent of sea ice coverage spatially and over time based on the analysis.
4. In Table 9, justify the extent and duration of Arctic sea ice that may “open” the Northwest
Passage and the Northern Sea Route.
Table 9: Prediction of Extent of Arctic Sea Ice
Scenario
Analysis
Prediction
Rationale
Past
changes to
the extent
of Arctic
sea ice
All scenario
forecast
n/a
n/a
Table 9: Prediction of Extent of Arctic Sea Ice
Scenario
Analysis
Prediction
Rationale
“Middle of
the road”
forecast
“Best case”
forecast
“Worst
case”
forecast
Making Connections:
5. Read several articles that describe predictions of an “ice-free” route through the Arctic. How do
your predictions compare to what others are saying? Click on the links below to read the articles
and to record your response.
Table 10: Articles that predict future shipping routes
Publication
Article Title
Link
Ending Its Summer Melt, Arctic Sea Ice http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/20/sci
ence/earth/arctic-sea-ice-stops-meltingNew York Times
Sets a New Low That Leads to
but-new-record-low-is-set.html?_r=0
Warnings
Thawing Arctic opens up new shipping http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/
The Guardian
2011/jul/05/arctic-shipping-trade-routes
routes on the 'roof of the world'
http://www.rit.edu/news/story.php?id=47
Rochester Institute of Increased Arctic Shipping Believed to
902
Technology News
Accelerate Climate Change
Part 4: Economic and Environmental Impacts of Arctic Shipping
Directions: The goal for Part 4 of this activity is to research the future economic and environmental
impacts, both pros and cons, of shipping routes in the Arctic Ocean. Table 11 lists articles and links that
describe the economic and environmental impacts of Arctic shipping. Read 8-10 of these resources and
describe the pros and cons of both of the economic and environmental impacts of Arctic shipping in
Table 12.
Table 11:
Publication/
Organization
NOAA Office of the
General Counsel
Weather Underground
(Weather Channel)
Yale 360—The
Environment
The Scientific
American
The Arctic Institute
The Arctic Institute
Article Title
Arctic Shipping Issues
http://www.gc.noaa.gov/gcil_arctic_ship
ping.html
Arctic Sea Ice Decline
http://www.wunderground.com/climate
/SeaIce.asp
As Arctic Melts, Inuit Face
Tensions with Outside World
http://e360.yale.edu/feature/as_arctic_
melts_inuit_face_tensions_with_outside
_world/2577/
http://www.scientificamerican.com/arti
cle.cfm?id=opening-of-northwestpassage
Will the Opening of the Northwest
Passage Transform Global Shipping
Anytime Soon?
The Future of the Northern Sea Route
- A “Golden Waterway” or a Niche
Trade Route
The Future of Arctic Shipping
The Guardian
Thawing Arctic opens up new shipping
routes on the 'roof of the world'
The EU Observer
Arctic shipping routes unlikely to be
'Suez of the north'
Increased Arctic Shipping Believed to
Accelerate Climate Change
Arctic Is Already Suffering the Effects
of a Dangerous Climate Change
First Chinese ship crosses Arctic
Ocean amid record melt
Rochester Institute of
Technology News
The Science Daily
Reuters
The Science Daily
Cargo Business News
Red Orbit (UCLA)
Article Link
Increase in Arctic Shipping Is Risk to
Marine Mammals
Global players jockey over Arctic
shipping routes
Warmer Arctic Means Less Trucking,
More Shipping
http://www.thearcticinstitute.org/2011/
10/future-of-northern-sea-routegolden_13.html
http://www.thearcticinstitute.org/2012/
10/the-future-of-arctic-shipping.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen
t/2011/jul/05/arctic-shipping-traderoutes
http://euobserver.com/transport/32483
http://www.rit.edu/news/story.php?id=
47902
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/
2012/01/120130171913.htm
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/0
8/17/us-china-environmentidUSBRE87G0P820120817
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/
2012/03/120316112549.htm
http://www.cargobusinessnews.com/No
v09/arctic_jockeys.html
http://www.redorbit.com/news/science
/2055609/warmer_arctic_means_less_tr
ucking_more_shipping/
Table 12: Economic and Environmental Impacts of Arctic Shipping—pros and cons
Economic Impacts
Pros
Cons
Environmental Impacts
Pros
Cons
Part 5: Climate Change in the Arctic—Economic Boon or Environmental
Crisis?
Parts 1-4 are intended to help you complete Part 5. Thus, only the op-ed report will be formally
assessed. The op-ed report should have the following sections: 1) Identifies the socio-scientific issues, 2)
Describes evidence of climate change, 3) Describe future Arctic sea Ice and Shipping, 4) Synthesizes
Research of the Economic and the Environmental Impacts of Arctic Shipping , and 5) responds to the
research question which is: If the Arctic shipping routes are viable, should they be exploited?
Use the graphic organizer below to summarize the key points. This organizer will help you write your oped report. Note: The above op-ed report does not have a “set amount” of paragraphs, but try to limit
your paper to 2500 words or five double-spaced pages.
Identifies the Socio-scientific Issue: (Collect this information from Part 1 of this activity)
Identify the research
question
Discuss why the research
question is important
Describe changes of Arctic
sea ice seasonally and over
the past several decades
Describes current shipping
routes that might most be
affected by the ‘opening’ of
the Arctic
Describes Evidence of Climate Change: (Collect this information from Part 2 of this activity)
Analyze multiple lines of
evidence that describes the
correlation between
atmospheric carbon dioxide
and global temperature
Analyze multiple lines of
evidence (using different
sources) that describes the
effects of changes of global
temperature on sea ice
Link the evidence-based
conclusions from the above
analyses with the
conclusions from the IPCC
report
Describes Future Arctic Sea Ice and Shipping: (Collect this information from Part 3 of this activity)
Analyze the “air
temperature” Community
Climate System Model for
the Arctic region, both
spatially and temporally
Predict the future extent of
sea ice in the Arctic Ocean
based on the “air
temperature” Community
Climate System Model
Predict the most viable
shipping routes in the
Arctic. Evidence is used
from the models and the
literature
Synthesizes Research of the Economic and the Environmental Impacts of Arctic Shipping: (Collect this
information from Part 4 of this activity)
Discuss the pros and cons
of the future economic
impacts of Arctic Shipping
Discuss the pros and cons
of the future
environmental impacts of
Arctic Shipping
Responds to Research Question:
Suggests a strong
statement that responds to
the question: If the Arctic
shipping routes are viable,
should they be exploited?
Statement aligns with and
is supported by data and
research literature
Rubric: Op-Ed Report (NOTE: Attach this rubric to your op-ed paper)
Criteria
3-Excellent
2-Good
1-Fair
Identifies the
Socio-scientific
Issue (Part 1)
States, explicitly, the problem and why the
issue is important. Selects pertinent
concepts related to seasonal & long term
changes to Arctic sea ice and current &
proposed shipping routes.
Analyzes, accurately and concisely, multiple
lines of data (multiple sources) that
describes the correlation between global
temperature and atmospheric carbon
dioxide. Explains precise and logical
connections between the data analysis and
the scientific literature (IPCC report) of the
causes of climate change.
Analyzes data, accurately and concisely,
from temperature climate models both
spatially and temporally. Predicts, with a
clear rationale, the extent shipping routes.
Supports prediction, accurately and
concisely, with evidence from the computer
models and from the literature.
Discusses, with clarity and detail, the
economic and environmental pros and cons
of Arctic shipping. Utilizes a breadth of
research sources.
Elicits a strong, clear statement that
responds to the research question. The
statement explicitly aligns with and is
supported by all the data and research.
States the problem and why the issue is
important. Includes concepts related to
seasonal and long term changes to Arctic sea
ice and current and proposed Arctic shipping
routes.
Analyzes multiple lines of data that
describes the correlation between global
temperature and atmospheric carbon
dioxide. Elicits connections between the
data analysis and the scientific literature
(IPCC report) of the causes of climate
change.
Discusses the economic and environmental
pros and cons of Arctic shipping. Utilizes
research to support claims
States, ambiguously, the problem and why
the issue is important. Lacks concepts
related to seasonal and long term changes
to Arctic sea ice and current and proposed
Arctic shipping routes.
Analyzes, imprecisely, multiple lines of data
(multiple sources) that describes the
correlation between global temperature and
atmospheric carbon dioxide. Elicits ancillary
and/or unrelated connections between the
data analysis and the scientific literature
(IPCC report) of the causes of climate
change.
Analyzes data, imprecisely, from
temperature climate models both spatially
and temporally. Predicts, with an
inarticulate rationale, the extent shipping
routes. Supports prediction with ancillary
and/or unrelated evidence from the
computer models and from the literature.
Discusses, imprecisely, the economic and
environmental pros and cons of Arctic
shipping. Utilizes few research sources.
Elicits a statement that responds to the
research question. The statement aligns
with and is supported by the data and
research.
Elicits a weak, vague statement that
responds to the research question. The
statement indirectly aligns with and support
of the data and research.
Describes
Evidence of the
Causes of
Climate Change
(Part 2)
Describes
Evidence of the
effects of
Climate Change
on Sea Ice and
Arctic Sea
Routes (Part 3)
Researches
Economic and
Environmental
Impacts (Part 4)
Responds to
Research
Question
Analyzes data from temperature climate
models both spatially and temporally.
Predicts, with a rationale, the extent
shipping routes. Supports prediction with
evidence from the computer models and
from the literature.
NOTES: 1) A score of “0” will be given for incomplete work; 2) words in bold differentiate between a “3” and “1.” 3) Attach rubric to paper
Total Possible Points:______
Earned Points:______
Comments: