Introduction
We examined the decision to begin deep draft infrastructure development in the dynamic arctic
environment of Alaska. The decline in sea ice extent and thickness is a trend that if it continued at the
same pace, will result in large areas of the arctic being ice-free in the summer within a few decades.
Less ice in the summer north of Alaska and Russia has led to shipping industry increasingly looking
into the possibility of sending larger vessels through the Northwest Passage. There is increased ore
and gas concentrate tankers coming from Europe and Alaska, and sensitive arctic areas are
experiencing more and more traffic. The study area includes more than 3,000 miles of coastline from
Bethel west and north and then east to the Canadian border. Alaska’s western and northern coastline
is very shallow with very little marine infrastructure, so proper planning and responsible
development of a new port is vital. The management and support of this project is a very high
priority for the state of Alaska and other federal agencies. This poster utilizes data from the U.S. Army
Corps of Engineers study of the Alaska Deep-Draft ports system (AK DOT and USACE project), sea ice
predictability studies, and the Arctic Council Working group (i.e. PAME, SDWG, EPPR) reports to
explore the decisions faced by the State of Alaska, its citizens, and other stakeholders while also
considering the concerns of rural indigenous communities who are reliant on a subsistence lifestyle.
The need to further invest in port development includes:
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Large vessel traffic is increasing and more than 60% are foreign vessels
Increased traffic means increased risk of incidents and response by the US Coast Guard and
other vessels
Environmental protection is important as marine traffic increases and gas and oil
development grows in the Chuckchi and Beaufort seas
Community resupply costs are high due to fuel costs, limited infrastructure, and multiple
handling.
The state of Alaska policy calls for increased development of oil, gas, and mineral resources
The US seeks national sufficiency in energy resources
The decision
Using criteria from the US Army corps of Engineers Deep Draft Port system report (AK DOT and
USACE project) to determine the physical suitability of a port, several location sites were considered
based on: port proximity to mission, intermodal connections, upland support, natural water depth
and navigation accessibility. Based on these physical criteria an analysis of candidate sites yielded a
short list that we further reduced to two locations: a port at Nome or Port Clearance, Alaska. Other
factors that were not considered but should be included in the siting criteria include sovereignty,
roads, National Environmental Protection considerations, future maintenance and land ownership
issues, and political opposition or support. Cost was not a criteria because there is insufficient
information available for accurate cost estimates. Once the site is selected then cost will be used as a
criterion in final selection for the best alternatives. Distance to deep water was deemed proxy for
cost and this criterion in the system’s report was given additional weighting to capture the cost
element. Several objectives we considered were revenue building for future expansion of the
shipping industry in the arctic.
Sources of Uncertainty
Transpolar shipping is very weather dependent, and the rate of the melting sea ice remains uncertain
based on statistical forecasts from past year’s ice patterns. Prediction accuracy is uncertain as
forecasts close in years when the sea ice extent falls very close to the long term trend line are more
accurate but falls apart in the record low or unusual years. A big challenge to single year predictions
is weather, which cannot be forecast very well beyond a few weeks into the future. For example,
winds can compact ice, spread it or barely blow. Age, thickness and strength of the ice can affect
summer melt extent. Snow pack can protect or weaken the sea ice and is also a source of uncertainty.
Therefore, how soon will a facility like this be needed? What kinds of infrastructure support will be
needed for remote areas considering melting permafrost? Are questions tied to climate change and
sources of variabiltiy and uncertainty. The extent of sea ice melt directly correlates to vessel traffic
and access to the arctic, making economic benefits uncertain. A short summer season with ice freeconditions for a matter of weeks would keep traffic volume low. Incidents and accidents in the arctic
have potential for major consequences, both in terms of loss of life and the risk of oil spills that could
have serious consequences in ecologically sensitive areas.
Variable #1: Sea Ice
1.
The year in which the Northwest Passage will have a ice-free summer
2.
Years
3.
We estimated this by running global circulation models (GCMs) with a sea-ice
component (e.g., CESM v1.3 with CICE v5.0.4)
4.
To obtain a large enough ensemble of members – taking into account the variance in
model physics between various GCMs, we used previous published studies that use a wide
range of models.
5.
As this information is obtained from models with many quantities being
parameterized, this information is, by construction, imperfect.
Variable #2: Oil Spill (environmental impact)
1.
The occurrence of an oil spill in the potential new deep-draft port
2.
Binary (oil spill occurs or it does not)
4.
This information is gathered from organizations like the EPA, Arctic Council
working groups, etc.
5.
This information would likely be imperfect. Data collected would be based on large,
known oil spills; however, oil spills that are small and undetectable will still have
environmental impacts in a pristine ecosystem but may not be recorded.
Tradeoffs
Physical suitability of location vs. proximity of infrastructure support, and physical suitability of
locations vs. indigenous rights (More)
Discussion of Results
Shipping companies will have to be selective and opportunistic in using these shipping routes that
have opened up as a result of climate change. This unique decision to construct an Arctic port system
in Alaska would be a major infrastructure asset as the state, nation, and world continue to develop
the Arctic’s resources. Construction of a deep-water port would enhance in-state job growth, support
resource development, exploration and community resupply, and operate as a new marine
intermodal hub between marine and aviation transportation facilities.