Aziza Mohammed
Assignment 10
Detailed Project Proposal
1. Project goals and spatial questions:
Interest in the Arctic has been heating up. The present and potential emergence of new shipping lanes
and natural resources has raised questions of sovereignty that had hitherto been on ice. Taking shipping
lanes and natural resources as independent variables, I would like to explore what effects they have on
the dependent variable of hard power for a selection of arctic states depending on how sovereign
territory is delineated. Essentially I would like to calculate a “density” of hard power and see how it
changes according to different interpretations of maritime boundaries. Under international law, no
state owns the North Pole or the Arctic Ocean region. The five circumpolar countries (Canada, Denmark,
Norway, Russia, and the United States) are limited to having control over an “exclusive economic zone”
(EEZ) of 200 nautical miles (nm) beyond their coastlines. Where there are overlapping EEZs under
400nm then control is delineated by an equidistant boundary. Under the United Nations Convention on
the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS), a signatory state has 10 years to make extended continental shelf claims.
If granted, such claims entitle a state to the resources above or below the seabed of that continental
shelf. These extended continental shelves are still being mapped and their existence makes my hard
power density model interesting.
2. Annotated list of data sets:
Name of data
set
The Arctic
Region
Description
Source
Key attributes
This is just a
map
containing
maritime
boundaries
and the
possible
northwest
passage
Density of
actual
maritime
shipping
GIS lab…
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/theworld-factbook/docs/refmaps.html
(will acquire proper citation)
Maritime
boundaries
Northwest
passage
Oil resources
Details oil
resource data
for the world
http://www.eia.gov/
Oil resources
World
continents
base map layer
of the
continents for
the world
GIS lab…
This will
provide a
coastline from
which I can
calculate the
baseline EEZ of
200nm
Commercial
Activity
(Shipping)
http://www.nceas.ucsb.edu/globalmarine/impacts Density of
shipping
3. Process chart
1.
2.
3.
•Reproject all of my layers into WGS 1984 Arctic Polar Stereographic
•Georeference Arctic Region Map to create northwest passage layer and
extended continental shelf layer
•Create a buffer zone from the coastline of each of the circumpolar states to
200 nm to show EEZ. This is the foundation of my baseline hard power
density calculation. I must have a separate buffer zone to allow analysis of the
hard power under each state's control.
•Create a buffer zone between the coastline and the extended continental
shelf of each state to show the potential hard power density.
•Calculate baseline hard power density. This can be done by creating a suitability map through
raster-based overlay analysis. Hard power is calculated by: oil resources, control over shipping
(economic power), and area of territory controlled (watery though it may be).
•Set the extent and snap raster so that everything will match up to my world continents data set.
•Create an oil resources preference grid
•Create a shipping data density preference grid
• For each of the above, bigger is better!
•I'm not sure how to incorporate the northwest passage into this step
•Next use the raster calculator to show where are the highest densities of hard power
•The buffer zones are used to help show within which maritime boundary is the highest hard
power density for each circumpolar state. Depending on how the density changes under each
set of maritime boundaries, states may be more amenable to ratifying UNCLOS. This calculation
can provide material for an illumating commentary on changes and power shifts in the
international system to come.