Goulburn Water Allocation Sale
Market Information
October 2015
Southern Connected Basin Market Information
Commonwealth Holdings
The Commonwealth currently holds 16 per cent of the high and general security entitlements on issue in
the southern connected basin. In table 1 a breakdown of entitlements held by the Commonwealth as a
proportion of the high, and general entitlements on issue in the southern-connected basin is provided.
Table 1: Breakdown of regulated entitlements in the southern-connected Basin
Entitlements on Issue
(GL)
Security Level
Commonwealth
Holdings (GL)
% held by the
Commonwealth
High Security/Reliability
3,361
768
23%
General Security/Low Reliability
5,388
627
12%
8,749
1,395
16%
TOTAL
Recent allocation market developments
In September, 91 GL of allocation water was traded in the southern MDB for a total value of
$18 million. Trading activity was strongest in the Murrumbidgee, NSW Murray, VIC Murray, SA
Murray and Goulburn.
In September 2015 the 3-month Volume Weighted Average Prices (VWAPs) increased across the
trading zones continuing the trend of increasing prices across the southern MDB that has been witnessed
over the last three water years (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: 3-month moving average VWAP and volumes by month southern MDB, 2009-2015
Source: Marsden Jacob analysis, 2015
Figure 2 and Figure 3 present the monthly VWAP and trading patterns across the southern MDB. The
key points to note from this analysis are:

across the connected southern MDB (excluding the Murrumbidgee), the VWAP range in September
was $199-$210.50 per ML or nearly $11, with the lowest prices observed in the NSW Murray;

inter-regional trade has been strong with considerable trade out of NSW and into VIC;

VIC Murray and Goulburn regions were again major net buyers of water; and

Over the first quarter of the year the Murrumbidgee and SA Murray catchments were net sellers of
allocation water.
Prices continue to be strong with trade data in October 2015, indicating median prices increasing to
$230-240 per ML and spot prices as high as $280-300 per ML.
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Figure 2: Price correlations in the southern MDB, July 2013 – September 2015
Figure 3: Net trading patterns in the southern MDB, July – September 2015
Climate and catchment conditions
The Bureau of Meteorology released a special update to the climate outlook on 7 October 2015 because
there has been a “significant shift towards a drier October nation-wide, related to the emerging positive
Indian Ocean Dipole reinforcing the strong El Nino.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal outlook is for:

a drier October nation-wide;

greater than 80% chance of a drier October in southeast Australia;

high chance of warmer days and night south of the tropics;

October to December is like to be drier than average across the southeast and northeast.
This seasonal outlook is a significant decline in climatic conditions compared to earlier outlooks issued
by the BOM.
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Dam storage levels
Dam storage levels for each region as at 30 September 2015 are presented in Table .
Table 1: Dam Storage levels (BOM), as at 30 September 2015
Southern MDB
Region
Storage Level
Murrumbidgee
59%
NSW Murray
60%
Lower Darling
0%
Goulburn
59%
VIC Murray
60%
Campaspe
40%
Loddon
29%
SA Murray
60%
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
Announced allocation
Table 1 summarises the seasonal allocations by region, as at 1 October 2015.
Table 1: Seasonal allocations southern MDB, as at 15 October 2015
Region
High Security / High Reliability
General Security / Low Reliability
Lower Darling
20%
0%
Murrumbidgee
95%
29%
NSW Murray
97%
12%
VIC Murray
82%
0%
Broken
8%
0%
Goulburn
72%
0%
Campaspe
51%
0%
Loddon
56%
0%
SA Murray
100%
n/a
For further information
http://waterregister.vic.gov.au/water-trading/allocation-trading
http://www.water.nsw.gov.au/water-licensing/registers
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
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