Supplementary material
A- Model structure
At a given sampling occasion, a seal may be prebreeder (PB), first-time breeder (B1),
experienced breeder (E) or dead (†). In the field, the possible observations made were: '0'
(not detected), '1' (detected and assigned as a prebreeder), '2' (detected with an unknown
breeding state) and '3' (detected and assigned as an adult A) (See [1] for more information
about state assignment).
All seals were prebreeders when first captured and the initial state vector Π was thus defined
as:
B1
0
PB
1
Π=
†
0
E
0
We defined the survival matrix S, the transition between breeding states matrix T (conditional
on survival), the detection matrix P and the breeding state assignment matrix SA as:
S=
T=
P=
SA=
PB
B1
E
†
PB
ϕ
0
0
0
B1
0
ϕ
0
0
†
1- ϕ
1- ϕ
1- ϕ
1
E
0
0
ϕ
0
B1
ψ
0
0
0
E
0
1
1
0
†
0
0
0
1
'3'
0
0
β
PB
B1
E
†
PB
1-ψ
0
0
0
PB
B1
E
†
'0'
1-p
1-p
1-p
1
PB
p
0
0
0
A
0
p
p
0
'0'
1
0
0
'1'
0
β
0
'2'
0
1- β
1- β
'0'
PB
A
To simplify notation, we did not distinguish probabilities in matrices. However, transitions
are not all equal. According to effects we wanted to test, we differentiated some probabilities
from the others. For example, if we considered that survival probabilities of prebreeders and
breeders were different, we differentiated the probability ϕ in the first raw from the second
and third raws. This comment is valid for all matrices.
1.
Desprez M., McMahon C.R., Hindell M.A., Harcourt R., Gimenez O. 2013 Known
Unknowns in an Imperfect World: Incorporating Uncertainty in Recruitment Estimates Using MultiEvent Capture–Recapture Models. Ecology and evolution 3 (14), 4658-4668.
B- Detection probabilities according to breeding state, years and age.
Breeding state
Year
Age
Estimates
CI-
CI+
SE
1993
0
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1994
0.64
0.60
0.67
0.02
1995
0.62
0.59
0.65
0.02
1996
0.56
0.53
0.59
0.01
0.68
0.65
0.70
0.01
1998
0.67
0.64
0.69
0.01
1999
0.79
0.77
0.81
0.01
2000
0.79
0.77
0.81
0.01
1995
0.51
0.48
0.54
0.02
1996
0.45
0.42
0.48
0.01
1997
0.58
0.55
0.60
0.01
0.57
0.54
0.59
0.01
1999
0.71
0.68
0.73
0.01
2000
0.71
0.69
0.73
0.01
2001
0.73
0.71
0.76
0.01
1996
0.26
0.23
0.29
0.01
1997
0.37
0.34
0.40
0.02
1998
0.36
0.33
0.39
0.02
0.51
0.47
0.54
0.02
2000
0.51
0.48
0.54
0.02
2001
0.54
0.51
0.57
0.02
2002
0.25
0.22
0.29
0.02
1997
0.24
0.21
0.27
0.02
1998
0.23
0.20
0.26
0.01
0.36
0.32
0.39
0.02
0.36
0.33
0.40
0.02
2001
0.39
0.35
0.43
0.02
2002
0.15
0.13
0.18
0.01
2003
0.45
0.40
0.50
0.03
0.21
0.18
0.24
0.02
1997
1998
Juveniles
1999
1
2
3
1999
2000
1998
4
5
1999
0.33
0.29
0.37
0.02
2000
0.34
0.30
0.38
0.02
2001
0.36
0.32
0.40
0.02
2002
0.14
0.12
0.17
0.01
2003
0.42
0.37
0.47
0.03
2004
0.21
0.17
0.26
0.02
1999
0.22
0.18
0.26
0.02
2000
0.22
0.19
0.26
0.02
2001
0.24
0.20
0.29
0.02
0.08
0.07
0.11
0.01
2003
0.29
0.24
0.34
0.03
2004
0.13
0.10
0.17
0.02
2005
0.03
0.02
0.06
0.01
2000
0.15
0.11
0.18
0.02
2001
0.16
0.13
0.20
0.02
2002
0.05
0.04
0.07
0.01
0.19
0.16
0.24
0.02
2004
0.08
0.06
0.11
0.01
2005
0.02
0.01
0.04
0.01
2006
0.04
0.02
0.07
0.01
1996
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1997
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.99
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.99
1.00
0.00
2000
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
2001
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
2002
1.00
0.88
1.00
0.00
1997
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1998
0.85
0.68
0.93
0.06
1999
0.99
0.01
1.00
0.06
2002
2003
6
7+
1998
1999
2000
First-time breeders
3
0.88
0.75
0.95
0.05
2001
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
2002
0.21
0.13
0.31
0.04
2003
0.86
0.73
0.93
0.05
1998
0.84
0.67
0.93
0.07
1999
0.99
0.01
1.00
0.06
2000
0.88
0.75
0.94
0.05
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
2002
0.20
0.11
0.35
0.06
2003
0.86
0.71
0.94
0.06
2004
0.77
0.59
0.89
0.07
1999
0.99
0.01
1.00
0.06
0.87
0.69
0.95
0.06
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
2001
2000
2001
4
5
6
2002
0.19
0.09
0.34
0.06
2003
0.85
0.66
0.94
0.07
2004
0.75
0.57
0.87
0.08
2005
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
2000
0.65
0.42
0.83
0.11
2001
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.06
0.03
0.13
0.02
0.61
0.40
0.78
0.10
2004
0.46
0.30
0.63
0.09
2005
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
2006
0.45
0.27
0.65
0.10
2001
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
2002
0.08
0.03
0.16
0.03
2003
0.66
0.43
0.84
0.11
2002
2003
2004
0.52
0.33
0.70
0.10
2005
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
2006
0.51
0.32
0.70
0.10
2007
0.51
0.31
0.72
0.11
1997
0.84
0.64
0.94
0.07
1998
0.75
0.60
0.86
0.07
1999
0.88
0.78
0.94
0.04
0.89
0.79
0.94
0.04
2001
0.92
0.84
0.96
0.03
2002
0.40
0.25
0.57
0.09
2003
0.83
0.70
0.91
0.05
1998
0.61
0.53
0.68
0.04
1999
0.79
0.73
0.84
0.03
2000
0.80
0.75
0.84
0.02
0.85
0.81
0.88
0.02
2002
0.25
0.21
0.30
0.02
2003
0.71
0.65
0.76
0.03
2004
0.69
0.63
0.74
0.03
1999
0.75
0.69
0.80
0.03
2000
0.75
0.70
0.80
0.03
2001
0.81
0.77
0.85
0.02
0.20
0.17
0.24
0.02
2003
0.65
0.60
0.70
0.02
2004
0.63
0.58
0.68
0.03
2005
0.79
0.75
0.83
0.02
2000
0.74
0.69
0.79
0.03
2001
0.80
0.76
0.84
0.02
0.19
0.16
0.23
0.02
2003
0.64
0.59
0.68
0.02
2004
0.62
0.57
0.66
0.02
2000
2001
Experienced breeders
7
2002
2002
8+
4
5
6
7
2005
0.78
0.74
0.81
0.02
2006
0.43
0.38
0.48
0.03
2001
0.79
0.74
0.83
0.02
2002
0.18
0.15
0.22
0.02
2003
0.61
0.56
0.66
0.03
0.59
0.55
0.64
0.02
2005
0.76
0.72
0.80
0.02
2006
0.41
0.36
0.46
0.02
2007
0.55
0.49
0.60
0.03
2002
0.22
0.19
0.27
0.02
2003
0.68
0.63
0.72
0.02
2004
0.66
0.61
0.70
0.02
0.81
0.77
0.84
0.02
2006
0.48
0.43
0.53
0.03
2007
0.61
0.56
0.66
0.03
2008
0.30
0.25
0.36
0.03
2003
0.58
0.52
0.63
0.03
2004
0.56
0.50
0.61
0.03
2005
0.74
0.69
0.78
0.02
0.37
0.32
0.43
0.03
2007
0.51
0.46
0.57
0.03
2008
0.22
0.18
0.27
0.02
2009
0.88
0.82
0.93
0.03
2004
0.56
0.49
0.62
0.03
2005
0.73
0.68
0.78
0.03
2006
0.37
0.32
0.43
0.03
0.51
0.45
0.57
0.03
2008
0.22
0.18
0.27
0.02
2009
0.88
0.81
0.93
0.03
2010
0.14
0.10
0.19
0.02
2005
0.64
0.56
0.71
0.04
2006
0.28
0.22
0.34
0.03
0.40
0.33
0.48
0.04
0.16
0.12
0.20
0.02
2009
0.83
0.73
0.89
0.04
2010
0.09
0.06
0.13
0.02
2006
0.20
0.14
0.27
0.03
2007
0.30
0.23
0.40
0.04
2004
2005
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
8
9
10
11
12
0.11
0.07
0.16
0.02
2009
0.76
0.62
0.86
0.06
2010
0.06
0.04
0.10
0.01
2007
0.30
0.19
0.43
0.06
0.10
0.06
0.18
0.03
0.75
0.57
0.87
0.08
2008
2009
13
14
2010
0.06
0.03
0.11
0.02
2008
0.12
0.06
0.24
0.04
0.78
0.58
0.90
0.08
0.07
0.03
0.15
0.03
0.69
0.40
0.88
0.13
0.05
0.01
0.14
0.03
0.04
0.01
0.15
0.03
2009
15
2010
2009
2010
2010
16
17
C- Breeding state assignment probabilities according to state and age.
State
Prebreeder
Breeder
Age
Estimates
CI-
CI+
SE
0-2
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
3
0.58
0.54
0.62
0.02
4
0.27
0.23
0.31
0.02
5
0.04
0.03
0.06
0.01
6
0.03
0.01
0.07
0.01
7+
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0-2
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3
0.05
0.03
0.09
0.01
4
0.83
0.79
0.87
0.02
5
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
6
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
7+
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00