NCHRP Project 08-36
Proposed Research Problem Statement
1.
Title
Cell Phone Data Development for Near-Term Traffic Forecasting and Analysis
2.
Background
Recent advances in cell-phone derived Origin/Destination (O/D) data may provide the ability to derive regional and sub-regional trip tables without having to rely on the development of macro-scopic models (i.e. 4-step travel demand models). This data, when joined with intersection turning movement and/or link counts and O/D Matrix Estimation (O/DME) techniques, may increase efficiency in the production of high resolution, near term (<=10 years) traffic forecasts necessary to inform the design and improvement of highway corridors and small urban areas or sub-areas within larger metropolitan regions.
3.
Statement of Urgency
The Transportation Research Board (TRB) is sponsoring the National Cooperative Highway
Research Program (NCHRP) 08-95: Cell Phone Location Data for Travel Behavior Analysis.
While much of the recent focus, including NCHRP 08-95, on the use of cell phone location data reflects a desire to leverage the data for travel demand model development and/or travel time analysis, there is a dearth of literature on its use in project design forecasting.
Transportation engineers and planners rely on a variety of methods to produce traffic forecasts for highway corridors and small urban areas. These methods range from simple growth rate models to using macro-scopic regional travel demand forecasting models. Each method has potential errors. Roadway segment traffic count-based growth rate models may fail to adequately predict changes in a variety of variables, cannot be used for new roadway alignment projects, and provide no understanding of regional O/D distributions. While macro-scopic travel demand models are able to provide synthetic regional O/D distributions but can produce results above the capacity of the existing/planned roadway, are usually focused on long-term planning, and are intensive to develop in terms of cost and time. Both methods lack the needed resolution for input to traffic simulation models which require detailed resolution including turning movements and ramp volumes. This detail is necessary for a variety of analyses such as micro-simulation of traffic signals, freeway interchanges, and Highway Capacity Manual evaluations.
The use of cell-phone derived O/D data could lessen the need for travel demand model development while providing a quick response forecasting capability using more specific data. Cell-phone derived O/D in combination with matrix estimation techniques to fit an O/D matrix to observed traffic counts may allow for the use of fairly traditional growth rate

forecasting methods in combination with a high-resolution network for traffic simulation.
The development and improvement of existing tools in this area would be immediately beneficial for project planning and design.
4.
Project Objective(s)
The objective of this project is to test and develop techniques and a guidebook for using cell phone data in the development of O/D data for traffic simulation to analyze plans for highway corridors and small urban areas. The guide and workflow/flowchart would assist practitioners in a range of project classes including Traffic Impact Assessments (TIA),
National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) documentation/studies and network capacity improvements.
5.
Relationship to Existing Body of Knowledge
The recently completed NCHRP Report 765: Analytical Forecasting Approaches for Project-
Level Planning and Design will serve as a building block for this study and would be an important addition.
6.
List of Anticipated Work Tasks
The propose work plan includes the following tasks:
Task 1 – Review existing guides for using cell phone location data in transportation planning.
This task will review available literature on using cell phone location data and related sources.
Task 2 – Develop a Case Study Example
This task will:

Document any existing examples where cell phone location data was utilized for highway corridor development or for small urban area analysis.

Document the use of matrix estimation techniques and software.

Develop a case study using available cell phone location data to show its use for a hypothetical project.
Task 3 – Develop Draft and Final Technical Guidance and Workflow/Flowchart Template
This task will develop step by step procedural guidance for using cell phone location data, matrix estimation techniques, and growth rate analysis for near-term forecasting. The draft will be reviewed by the 8-36 panel and NCHRP staff and finalized based on any comments or suggestions.
7.
Estimate of Funds Needed
$99,000

8.
Estimate of Time Needed to Complete the Research
12 to 18 months
9.
Name, Affiliation, and Contact Information of Submitter(s)
This project statement is submitted by the following researchers at the Texas A&M
Transportation Institute (TTI).
Byron Chigoy
Texas A&M Transportation Institute b-chigoy@tti.tamu.edu
(512) 407-1156
Thomas Williams
Texas A&M Transportation Institute t-williams@ttimail.tamu.edu
(512) 467-0952
Nick Wood
Texas A&M Transportation Institute nickwood@tamu.edu
(512) 407-1115
10.
Date of Submittal
March 31, 2014