AIMS 3770 - Dr. Leon
Spring 2013
Midterm 1 Study Guide
This exam assumes that you are able to:
1) Forecasting:
a) Perform the 10 steps of the forecasting process
b) Decompose a time series into its behavioral components (trend, seasonality,
random movement)
c) Calculate the following time series techniques in Excel:
i) Moving Averages
ii) Simple Exponential Smoothing
iii) Trend Projections
iv) Seasonal Adjustments
d) Calculate and interpret the MAD and MAPD in Excel
e) Calculate associative forecasts by performing
i) simple linear regression in Excel
ii) multiple linear regression in Excel
f) Interpret R2: the explanatory power of the model. Understand when to use R2 –vsAdjusted R2
g) Compare and contrast different forecasts (graph interpretation, measure of
performance) and defend which forecast you prefer
2) Aggregate Planning:
a) Describe the decision variables (also referred to as tools or options) for balancing
supply and demand
b) Describe benefits and drawbacks of each decision variable (reading assignment)
c) Identify examples of how companies implement the different decision variables
(reading assignment)
d) Describe the difference between level and chase demand production plan
strategies
e) Calculate capacity, workforce requirements and unit production costs for a
company
EXAM STRUCTURE:
The exam will have 3 main sections. Two of the sections will be problems on TimeSeries forecasting and associative forecasting. The last section will be on aggregate
planning.
The Aggregate Planning question will test your understanding of options available for
balancing supply and demand in manufacturing via short answer questions and will refer
heavily to reading assignment 1.
The Forecasting sections will require you to be able to calculate different forecasting
approaches and measures of performances. You will be asked questions regarding a
specific set of data and a company. This section will require use of Excel. You will not
have to create any graphs but you may have to plot new lines into an existing graph. It
will test your understanding of steps in the 10 step forecasting process discussed in class.
Formulas for the forecasting portion of the exam will be provided using the notation
presented in the powerpoint class slides. This exam is closed book, closed note and
closed internet. No calculators, cell phones or other electronics may be used during the
exam. Students must use the classroom laptop.