Rebekah Jones
Natural Hazards
Professor Monmonier
3 May 2011
Threats posed to Mississippi Gulf Coast barrier islands by climate change
Introduction/History
Mississippi’s barrier islands are disappearing. A multitude of factors are at play,
including deforestation, sea level rise caused by global warming, and intensification in strength
and frequency of hurricanes. Aware of the looming threat of a coast without barriers but inept to
deal with it, officials in coastal communities seem ill prepared for the next “big one.” More
daunting than the declining fishing industry and loss of biodiversity are the implications for how
the coastline will be impacted by the added storm surge levels after these buffer islands sink into
the sea. This paper will examine past trends of island disappearance along the Louisiana coast,
measure loss in the Mississippi Sound and evaluate how such losses will impact the coastline
from hurricanes to sea level rise and salt water intrusion.
Hurricane Camille broke the record for storm surge in 1969, topping off at 24 ft. along
the Mississippi shoreline (US Army, 2006). On the barrier islands, however, the impact was far
worse. Ship Island¸ located 12 miles south of Gulfport, Miss., was literally cut in half; the divide
is now known as the Camille Cut. Hurricane Georges (1998) dealt another crippling blow to the
island’s natural re-genesis process, and Katrina nearly did away with entire Gulf islands chains in
2005 (Fritz, 2007). For years, the degradation of the barrier islands went largely unnoticed, in part
because their role as a buffer zone was never fully understood. Recently, however, efforts to
reclaim the islands have been mildly successful, restoring vegetation and adapting anti-clear
cutting laws. Despite the movement to restore the islands, however, scientists remain skeptical
about whether or not the island chain has already reached its “tipping point,” in which its natural
aggregation regeneration process has been permanently disabled. A future without the barrier
Jones, May 2, 2011
islands spells disaster on many levels for Mississippi residents, and if Mississippi wants a glimpse
of what the Mississippi Sound may look line in 20 years, all they have to do is look to Louisiana.
Case Study: Curlew Islands, Louisiana.
Along the coastline of Louisiana, assembled in semicircular patterns off the
shore, exist some of the most diverse ecosystems in the United States. Louisiana’s barrier islands,
which protect the populations of New Orleans, Baton Rouge and countless rural delta
communities, began showing signs of degradation less than a decade ago. In nine years, several of
the islands are no longer on the
map. Curlew Islands (Images 14, Google) suffered massive
Images 1-2: Curlew Islands, La. before (1998)
and after (2007) its massive transformation
from an island to a sand barge in the Gulf of
Mexico. Source: Google Earth.
surface area loss between 1998 and
2007. In less than nine years, an island chain which has been protecting the most vulnerable parts
of the Mississippi Delta region for centuries virtually disappeared. Such a sudden and substantial
loss along the barrier islands puts the coastline at greater risk for a multitude of immediate and
long-term hazards, ranging from intensified storm surge to salt water intrusion of aquifers and
delta. The stability of the Louisiana Delta could be irreparably harmed, and the area has already
been witnessing increased salt water infiltration of local fresh water drinking supplies (Petrolia
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Jones, May 2, 2011
and Kim, 2008). In 2008, when Hurricane Gustav turned towards the Louisiana shore, residents
were warned that their homes may not be there when they returned, even if they lived as far as
eight miles inland. Such a scenario could begin to occur along the Mississippi coast should its
barrier islands disappear as quickly as Louisiana’s.
Curlew Islands, LA: 1998
Curlew Islands, LA: 2007
Deadman’s Island, LA: 1998
Deadman’s Island, LA: 2007
Images 3-6: Changes along the Louisiana barrier islands and shoreline show substantial surface area loss from 19982007. Deadman’s Island (Images 5-6) also show significant surface area lost attributed to increased hurricane
frequency and subsidence. Source: Google Earth.
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Jones, May 2, 2011
Images 7-8: The former (above – 1992) and current (below – 2008) coastline which was
formerly protected by the Curlew Islands, which are now virtually gone. Salt water
inundation has destroyed the majority of vegetation in the delta region and many parts
are beginning to show signs that they are subsiding into the ocean, as well. Small
communities who formerly lived in this region have been advised to retreat, as a
powerful hurricane could pull the sand out from under them. Source: Google Earth
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Jones, May 2, 2011
Ship Island, Mississippi
The Mississippi Gulf Coast barrier islands have been providing shelter for the Mississippi
coastline, reducing storm surge by as much as 15 percent during intense tropical cyclones (Otvos
& Carter, 2008). They also provide habitat for native plant and animal species, marine and land,
and served as important shipping and military facilities during the Civil and Gulf wars, among
others. Recently the islands’ natural regeneration process has been disrupted, however, and the
islands have experienced massive surface area loss since the 1950’s (Carter, Lucas & Otvos,
2006). The aggregation genesis process which allows the islands to recover from tropical
cyclones used to
compensate from losses
during storms, but the
sheer frequency and
intensity of storms during
the past two centuries
have virtually shut down
Image 11: Ship Island, Miss. before (left) and after (right) Hurricane
Katrina (2005). Images taken two weeks before and two days after
landfall, respectively. Source: Landsat 5 TM.
the system and pose a
serious threat to the
survival of these islands. My project set out to determine how much surface area Ship Island has
lost since 1987 via remotely sensed data. Since vegetation health corresponds to island health
(vegetation helps keep the island’s topsoil from being washed away), I also ran a normalized
difference vegetation index on several of my images to ascertain how biota have been affected by
major storms, as well.
In 1969, Ship Island, already an isolated, small shipyard located just 12 miles south of the
Gulfport, Miss. port, split into two pieces. Hurricane Camille left a long-lasting impression on the
island, sculpting it beyond recognition (Earle, 1975). Again in 1998, another hurricane, Georges,
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Jones, May 2, 2011
made its mark on the island, disintegrating parts of the island and carrying them out to sea. When
Hurricane Katrina struck in 2005, the island nearly disappeared, before emerging again several
weeks following landfall missing nearly a quarter of the surface area of its westerly and half of
the surface area of the easterly island (Fritz, 2007). While the island since recorded history has
regularly experienced surface area loss and regeneration, I found through my application of
remotely sensed data that the told island loss since 1987, minus regeneration, equaled 31.244
percent and 46.144 percent for the main and eastern islands of Ship Island, respectively. The
islands are in a state of overall decline, which could ultimately lead to disappearance of the
islands altogether by 2040 if current trends continue. Research by Dr. Otvos at the Universtiy of
Southern Mississippi concurs with this finding, nothing an overall 48 percent decrease in all
Mississippi Sound barrier islands since 1948 (Otvos, 2007).
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
Island 1 Area (sq.feet)
15000
Island 2 Area (sq.feet)
10000
5000
0
Chart 1: Annual and seasonal decline in surface area for Ship Islands West (Island 1) and East (Island 2).
West Ship Island has experienced a 31 percent loss in surface area, and East a 46 percent loss since 1987
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Jones, May 2, 2011
After Camille, the area limped forward, struggling to recover from both a tumultuous
decade of civil rights change and from several major hurricanes. Projects to restore the barrier
islands kicked off in the early 1990’s and saw major success during that time. In 1998, Hurricane
Georges, a strong category two hurricane which made five landfalls outside of the United States
prior to hitting Mississippi (killing more than 600 people in the Caribbean), hit the islands hard,
completely washing away a one-mile stretch of East Ship Island. Hurricane Katrina, which made
landfall near the Louisiana/Mississippi state line and struck as category three in 2005, brought a
30 foot storm surge to the Mississippi coastline, destroying structures as far inland as six miles.
Dr. Otvos noted a clear relationship between the surface area of barrier islands and storm surge
on the coastline. Katrina almost entirely submerged East Ship Island, leaving mere traces of it
behind, and destroying the peers, buildings and monuments on West Ship Island. Still, residents
flocked towards restoration projects in the hopes that the old civil war-era island could be saved.
In 2008, however, after Hurricanes Gustav and Ike hit the area within two weeks of each other,
surveying teams sent to assess the damage couldn’t find the island at first, as the east side had
completely disappeared and few parts of the west side had been left behind. West Ship Island
trucked on, serving as a tourist destination for fishing, boating and civil war tours.
But disaster struck again in April 2010 when the Deepwater Horizon explosion and
subsequent oil leak presented a new problem to the fragile ecosystem: how to keep oil from
getting into an area in which the restoration of healthy vegetation is key in the islands
reconstruction (Lehner and Deans, 2011). Almost immediately, US Coast Guard members, along
with the Mississippi Department of Marine Resources set up makeshift barriers in anticipation
that oil would reach the shore. Come June, it had and the buoys set up along the shore proved
inadequate for sparing the island from the disaster. Eventually, the oil made its way to the
Mississippi shore, washing up in Ocean Springs, Biloxi and Bay St. Louis. With rumors abound
that Ship Island may have sank or be beyond saving, communities began looking to the island
most crucial in protecting Biloxi’s coastline: Deer Island.
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Jones, May 2, 2011
Case Study: Deer Island, Miss.
Once it became painfully clear that Biloxi, like every other coastal city, was not immune
to total destruction during hurricanes, the city looked to restore a once lush and vibrant island less
than half a mile off
its coast. Through
an extensive
artificial reef
construction plan
and the restoration
of native plants and
animal species to
the islands, city
officials are
building a barrier
around the business
district and casinos
in Biloxi Bay,
hoping the new
islands will play a
similar role like
that of old Ship
Island and break
the storm surge
before it reaches the coastline.
The city has made considerable progress in restoring Deer Island’s beaches, which is
even noticeable from space (left). Between 1992 (top) and 2010 (bottom), the artificial reef
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Jones, May 2, 2011
programs went into full swing. However, noticeable vegetation loss and island subsidence is still
noticeable along the island’s main artery to the east. At this point, the success of these artificial
reeves and barrier islands remains unknown, as no major hurricanes have struck the area since
their construction began. A category three or worse hurricane could deal a fatal blow to these
multi-million dollar projects, and further delay plans to rebuild the once abandoned Biloxi Bay
area. Biloxi has also been addressing another threat posed by climate change and rising seas: salt
water intrusion. The forward thrusting of the ocean into the water table has increased the cost of
processing water for Biloxi residents, as the salinity continues to increase each year. Since the
area is experiencing subsidence and sea level rise simultaneously, these problems will only
continue to worsen in time.
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Jones, May 2, 2011
Conclusions
Since hurricane frequency and intensity are influenced by the temperatures of the
atmosphere and oceans, global warming has put the Mississippi shore in a new state of
uncertainty, unable to solve all of the problems and answer all of the questions of a truly
contemporary challenge. If there were ever any doubt that climate change would strike soon, look
no further than the Mississippi-Louisiana coastline. In North America, they may be among the
first climate victims who seek refuge elsewhere, unable to combat the forces of nature which
threaten their very way of life. There seems to be no sense of urgency among coastal officials to
take an active role in stopping the cause of island disappearance. Rather, they take the approach
of responding to problems as they arise in lieu of addressing the bigger issues at play, such as
fossil fuel consumption. At the same time, geopolitics play a major role in why Mississippi and
Louisiana have been unable to call national leaders out: the two poorest states in the country have
little political clout in Washington. Also, oil drilling is a vital part of the Southeastern economy,
and kicking out the oil giants who employ thousands of local workers doesn’t sit well among
small townsfolk who may not fully appreciate the implications of mass oil consumption.
But no matter how in denial we as a society may be, the issue continues to worsen and
property, businesses and most importantly, lives are at stake here. The idea of islands slipping
into the sea may sound somewhat like futuristic, science fiction Al Gore fear-mongering
propaganda, but it is happening right now in the Gulf. Not only is the Gulf economy fragile, but
the mental health of people along the coast is even more fragile, and an inability to address the
threat of global warming will only further exacerbate the devastation caused by increased storms,
the added costs of water filtration and, eventually, coastal retreat. The magnitude and rapidity of
these island’s submergence into the ocean caught me off guard while researching this project, and
I am shocked local scientists and leaders are not developing more thorough plans to save these
islands before it is too late. Then again, it might just already be too late.
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Jones, May 2, 2011
Outline:
Why barrier islands are important:
Mississippi Gulf Coast and plans in the works to protect and restore the islands. From there, how
the conservation movement along the coast, as a direct result of result of consecutively intense
storm surge damage, aided the development of artificial reef construction to improve ecology and
reduce wave action on the coast line, particularly the fragile industrial and recreation centers in
Biloxi, Miss.
Camille, Georges, Katrina – changes in vegetation over time
Land use change over time, as observed via Landsat, how healthy vegetation protects
island ecology, soil permeability and island preservation. Review of research on how land use
effects island stability. Local, state and federal initiatives to protect barrier islands. General trends
and changes after direct, major impacts by Hurricanes Camille (1969), Georges (1998), and
Katrina (2005).
Ship Island
A war zone, a port and island that was one, then four, and now two pieces. How and why
Ship Island is disappearing and why people should care. Movements toward protecting the island,
and how those movements have been undermined as more storms continue to hit the island. How
the BP oil spill hurt tourism to the island. Why Ship Island could be the most important island in
regard to protecting the greater Mississippi coastline from storm surge.
Deer Island – Past, Present and Future
The closest island near the most populated coastal city (Biloxi) and how it has been
engineered, extended and filled with trash. Why city officials propose sinking ships off the ocast
to build up reefs, encourage fishing. And how islands have been moved, lengthened and added to
protect the coastal casinos. How deer island went from being habited by deer, to not, and whether
or not they may return to that stage via restoration and what role a healthy Deer Island plays in
protecting Mississippi.Development and methods of artificial reef construction, how they aid and
how they hurt efforts to protect barrier islands.
Climate Change and Environmental Awareness
Retreat from the coastline, movement of the coastline and repair of infrastructure: how
moving back may be the best long-term plan to dealing with climate change. Even if sea level rise
doesn’t come, more storms will. Coastal communities are starting to understand this.
Conclusions
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Jones, May 2, 2011
Date:
Main Island:
Change Sq. feet
Area: Sq. feet
East Island:
Change Sq. feet
Area: Sq. feet
Jan. 1987
34983.723
-----------------
21888.575
-----------------
Jan. 1988
35001.099
+17.376
21893.862
-5.287
Feb. 1991
30466.481
- 4534.618
20762.333
- 1131.529
Dec. 1995
30774.949
+308.468
20558.942
- 203.391
April 1998
23930.435
- 6844.514
20930.435
- 371.493
Oct. 1998
23141.227
- 789.208
15503.747
- 5426.688
Jan. 2000
27345.072
+4203.845
19572.106
+4068.359
June 2005
25795.586
- 1549.486
22912.963
+3340.857
Sept. 2005
20387.794
- 5407.792
5894.124
-17018.839
August 2006
22175.345
+1787.551
6946.6399
+1052.5159
August 2007
24793.377
+2718.032
7847.2015
+900.5616
March 2008
25748.573
+ 955.196
9344.51
+1497.3085
Nov. 2008
24977.912
- 770.661
11605.603
+2261.093
March 2009
27701.450
+ 2723.538
12750.732
+1145.129
Sept. 2009
24122.183
- 3579.267
10890.549
-1860.183
Nov. 2010
24053.354
-68.8
11788.278
+897.79
Raw data acquired from Landsat 5 TM imagery for Ship Island surface area.
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Jones, May 2, 2011
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http://www.fema.gov/pdf/hazard/flood/recoverydata/katrina/maps/katrina_ms-i25.pdf
http://www.fema.gov/hazard/flood/recoverydata/katrina/katrina_ms_index.shtm#2
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