GRID EMISSION FACTOR
REPUBLIC OF KENYA
REPORT ON THE DETERMINATION OF THE
STANDARDISED BASELINE
USING THE UNFCCC METHODOLOGICAL TOOL: “TOOL
TO CALCULATE THE EMISSION FACTOR FOR AN
ELECTRICTY SYSTEM” (VERSION 04.0)
01 OCTOBER 2014
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction .............................................................................................. 1
Step 1: Identify the relevant electricity systems ............................................ 2
1.1 Kenya grid system ............................................................................................................................................... 2
1.2 CDM Projects...................................................................................................................................................... 4
Step 2: Choose whether to include off-grid power plants in the project electricity
system ..................................................................................................... 5
Step 3: Select an operating margin (OM) method .......................................... 5
Step 4: Calculation of the operating margin emission factor ............................ 5
Step 5: Identify the cohort of power plants to be included in the build margin ... 7
Step 6: Calculation of the build margin (BM) emission factor ........................... 9
Step 7: Calculation of the combined margin emission factor ............................ 9
Conclusion .............................................................................................. 11
Appendix A: Corrected errors in the Tool spreadsheet................................... 12
Appendix B: Power system operations statistics for 6 years ........................... 13
Appendix C: Raw data .............................................................................. 15
i
INTRODUCTION
This report presents the methodology and calculations used to obtain a value for the
standardized grid emission factor (GEF) for the Republic of Kenya. The work is based on a
three-year data set (2011-2013) including plant operation status, electricity generation, fuel
consumption, and fuel parameters. The report may not reflect activities in the operation of the
national grid that may have occurred during the year 2014, as the data covered have been
processed over several months prior to the submission of this report.
A grid emission factor (GEF) is the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions emitted for each
unit of electricity generation by power plants in a country. It is commonly expressed in tons of
carbon dioxide per megawatt hour electricity (tCO2 eq/MWh) and is a fundamental parameter
used to calculate emissions reductions from grid-connected power plants and energy efficiency
or energy saving projects of certain project types under the Clean Development Mechanism
(CDM) or other carbon schemes.
The initiative to develop a standardized grid emission factor or standardized baseline for the
electricity sector aims to serve project activities and programmes of activities that prospect to
displace grid electricity from the Kenyan Power grid. Renewable energy and energy efficiency
CDM projects benefit greatly from the availability of a national GEF that is centrally calculated
and maintained, thus avoiding the need for individual project developers to obtain relevant data
and perform complex calculations. Ultimately, the availability of standardized value speeds up
CDM project development, registration and issuance
The presented grid emission factor was calculated using the UNFCCC’s Methodological Tool
“Tool to calculate the emission factor for an electricity system” (version 4.0.0). However, some
errors have been detected in the spreadsheet attached to the published version on UNFCCC
website. These errors are presented in annex to this report (see Appendix A).
The tool was applied to determine the emission factor for the electricity supplied by the Kenyan
grid to the buyers. The tool prescribes six steps in order to calculate the operating margin, build
margin and the combined margin:







Step 1: Identify the relevant electric power system
Step 2: Choose whether to include off-grid power plants in the project electricity system
Step 3: Select an operating margin method
Step 4: Calculation of the operating margin emission factor
Step 5: Identify the cohort of power plants to be included in the build margin
Step 6: Calculate the build margin emission factor
Step 7: Calculate the combined margin emission factor
1
STEP 1: IDENTIFY THE RELEVANT ELECTRICITY SYSTEMS
The grid electricity system is the spatial extent of the power plants that are physically
connected through transmission and distribution lines to the project activity and that can be
dispatched without significant transmission constraints.
A connected electricity system is defined as an electricity system that is connected by
transmission lines to the project electricity system. Power plants within the connected electricity
system can be dispatched without significant transmission constraints, but transmission to the
project electricity system has significant transmission constraints.
The tool requires that “if a connected electricity system is located partially or totally in Annex I countries, then
the emission factor of that connected electricity system should be considered zero.” There are no connections to
grids in any Annex I countries. Where electricity is imported from Uganda or Tanzania (non
Annex I countries) the EFgrid,import,yis also taken as 0 tCO2/MWh.
Low-cost/must-run resources are defined as power plants with low marginal generation costs
or dispatched independently of the daily or seasonal load of the grid. They include hydro,
geothermal, wind, low-cost biomass, nuclear and solar generation, and also fossil fuel plant, if
dispatched independently of the daily or seasonal load of the grid (and if this can be
demonstrated based on the publicly available data).
1.1 Kenya grid system
The Kenya Electricity Supply Industry (ESI) is under the oversight of the Ministry of Energy and
Petroleum which, under the 2006 Energy Act, is responsible for providing an enabling
environment to all operators and other stakeholders in the energy sector.
The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) was established in 2007 under the Act as an
autonomous, independent energy sector regulator with powers to, inter alia, formulate licensing
procedures, issue licenses and permits, review and adjust electric power tariffs, approve power
purchase and network service contracts, examine and approve meters, collect and maintain
energy data, etc.
Principal operators in the ESI are the Kenya Electricity Generating Company (KenGen) which
accounts for close to 80% of generation, the balance being provided by five (5) Independent
Power Producers (IPPs), namely Iberafrica Power (EA) Ltd, Tsavo Power Company Ltd,
OrPower4 Inc., Mumias Sugar Company Ltd, and Rabai Power Ltd.
The Kenya Power and Lighting Company (KPLC) is responsible for transmission, distribution
and retail supply of electrical energy to end users. KPLC purchases power in bulk from KenGen
and the IPPs through bilateral contracts or Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) approved by
ERC
2
Other operators in the ESI include James Finlay, Sotik Tea Company, Sotik Highlands Tea
Estate, Oserian Development Company, Pan African Paper Mills, Unilever Tea Kenya Ltd and
Tiomin, who are licensed to generate electrical energy for own use. Kenya has a single grid that
serves the entire country. The Kenyan Power and Lighting Co. (KPLC) is responsible for the
transmission, distribution and retail of electricity throughout Kenya. The Energy Regulatory
Commission (ERC) is responsible for the economic and technical regulation of power,
renewable energy, and downstream petroleum sub-sectors, including collection and maintenance
of data, tariff setting and review, licensing, enforcement, dispute settlement and approval of
power purchase and network service contracts.
The Kenyan transmission system is taken as a homogenous mix of electricity supply by all
generators.
There are six Independent Power Producers (IPPs) in Kenya. The Electric Power Act of 1997
allowed the entry of IPP’s into the market. Prior to the introduction of the IPPs, Kenya relied
heavily on concessionary funding from multilateral and bilateral agencies to finance new power
investments.
As of June 2013 the total Kenyan grid consists of approximately 71% government owned power
plants making up 68% hydro power plants, 18% thermal, 13% geothermal and less than 1%
wind. The balance of the grid is made up of non-government owned power plants consisting of
74% IPP's and 26% Emergency Power Producers. In 2012/2013, 54% of the energy units
purchased by KPLC were hydro, 22% from IPP's, 14% from owned geothermal and the balance
from thermal, wind and emergency power plants. Therefore the identified project electricity
system is the Kenyan grid. The identified electricity system, the Kenyan grid, is taken as a
homogenous mix of electricity supply by all generators, dominated by renewable energy sources,
as presented in the table below.
Table 1: Energy mix in the Kenyan grid in 20131
ENERGY SOURCE
Low-cost/Must-run
energy sources (k)
Biomass
Geothermal
Hydro
Wind
Other sources (m)
Diesel (AGO or HFO)
Gas (Kerosene)
Grand Total
ELECTRICITY GENERATION
(MWh)
PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL
GENERATION
6,229,630
55,388
1,778,774
4,380,590
14,878
2,104,855
2,079,993
24,863
8,334,486
74.7%
0.7%
21.3%
52.6%
0.2%
25.3%
25.0%
0.3%
100.0%
1
Sources: Page 91 of THE KENYA POWER AND LIGHTING COMPANY LIMITED
ANNUAL REPORT AND FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 2012/2013
3
1.2 CDM Projects
Registered CDM projects need to be identified as they need to be excluded from the calculation
of the Build Margin Emissions Factor (BM EF). The table below lists the registered CDM
projects in Kenya which export electricity to the national grid.
UNFCCC
REFERENCE TITLE
USED LINK TO UNFCCC PROJECT PAGE
AND TITLE
IN
GEF
SPREADSHEET
3773
OLKARIA 2
https://cdm.unfccc.int/Projects/DB/DNVCUK1276170328.71/view
ORPOWER4
STEAM
II
andORPOWER4
STEAM III
https://cdm.unfccc.int/Projects/DB/RWTUV12
52941041.99/view
TANA
https://cdm.unfccc.int/Projects/DB/DNVCUK1310725211.27/view
NGONG
https://cdm.unfccc.int/Projects/DB/BVQI1400
500770.61/view
MUMIAS POWER
https://cdm.unfccc.int/Projects/DB/TUEVSUED1193228673.11/view
KIAMBERE
https://cdm.unfccc.int/Projects/DB/DNVCUK1350546075.48/view
Olkaria II Geothermal Expansion
Project
2975
Olkaria III Phase 2 Geothermal
Expansion Project in Kenya
5023
Redevelopment of Tana Hydro
Power Station Project
9960
5.1MW Grid Connected Wind
Electricity Generation at Ngong
Hills, Kenya
1404
35
MW
Bagasse
Based
Cogeneration Project” by Mumias
Sugar Company Limited (MSCL)
7783
Optimisation of Kiambere Hydro
Power Project
4
STEP 2: CHOOSE WHETHER TO INCLUDE OFF-GRID POWER
PLANTS IN THE PROJECT ELECTRICITY SYSTEM
The grid emission factor is calculated only from grid power plants (Option I). Off-grid power
plants are not included in the calculations.
STEP 3: SELECT AN OPERATING MARGIN (OM) METHOD
In accordance with the tool, the calculation of the operating margin emission factor (EFgrid,OM,y)
must be based on one of the following methods:
a)
b)
c)
d)
Simple OM, or
Simple adjusted OM, or
Dispatch data analysis OM, or
Average OM.
Option a) can only be used if low-cost/must-run resources constitute less than 50% of total grid
generation. This is not the case in Kenya’s national grid, as explained in the previous section,
therefore option (a) is not applicable.
Option c) requires hourly monitoring of the actual electricity dispatched in the grid and is not
applicable to when historical data are used, which is the case when determining a standardized
baselines. This option is therefore not applicable.
The remaining available options are Option b) and d). Option b), Simple adjusted OM, method
was selected for the calculation of the operating margin.
The required data were provided by KPLC on an hourly basis for the period going from January
2011 to December 2013.
STEP 4: CALCULATION OF THE OPERATING MARGIN
EMISSION FACTOR
According to the tool, the simple adjusted OM emission factor (EFgrid,OM-adj,y) is a variation
of the simple OM, where the power plants / units (including imports) are separated in lowcost/must-run power sources (k) and other power sources (m). It is calculated based on the net
electricity generation of each power unit and an emission factor for each power unit, as follows:
5
EFgrid,OM-adj,y  1  λ y
 EG  EF

 EG
m, y
EL,m, y
m
 λy
m, y
k, y
EL,k, y
k
(Equation 1 of the Tool)
k, y
m
Where:
 EG  EF

 EG
k
EFgrid,OM-adj,y
= Simple adjusted operating margin CO2 emission factor in year y (tCO2/MWh)
λy
= Factor expressing the percentage of time when low-cost/must-run power units are
on the margin in year y
= Net quantity of electricity generated and delivered to the grid by power unit m in
EGm,y
EGk,y
=
EFEL,m,y
EFEL,k,y
m
=
=
=
k
y
=
=
year y (MWh)
Net quantity of electricity generated and delivered to the grid by power unit k in
year y (MWh)
CO2 emission factor of power unit m in year y (tCO2/MWh)
CO2 emission factor of power unit k in year y (tCO2/MWh)
All grid power units serving the grid in year y except low-cost/must-run power
units
All low-cost/must run grid power units serving the grid in year y
The relevant year as per the data vintage chosen in Step 3
EFEL,m,y, EFEL,k,y, EGm,y and EGk,y were determined following the procedure described in Section
6.4.1.1 of the Tool, using option A1 for the parameter EFEL,m,y and option A3 for the parameter
EFEL,k,y (assuming an emission factor of 0 tCO2/MWh ).
Net electricity imports are considered low-cost/must-run units k.
The parameter y is defined as follows (se Equation 9 of the Tool):
y % 
Number of hours low - cost / must - run sources are on the margin in year y
8760 hours per year
The load duration curves presented in the calculation spreadsheet show the following results:



0.14098
0.07991
0.00856
For sources m:
2013
EFgrid,OM-adj,m,y =
0.6659
[tCO2/MWh]
2012
EFgrid,OM-adj,m,y =
0.6753
[tCO2/MWh]
2011
EFgrid,OM-adj,m,y =
0.6762
[tCO2/MWh]
6
For sources k, only generation data is available so the emission factor is assumed to be zero,
according to the Tool.
2013
EFgrid,OM-adj,k,y =
0.0000
[tCO2/MWh]
2012
EFgrid,OM-adj,k,y =
0.0000
[tCO2/MWh]
2011
EFgrid,OM-adj,k,y =
0.0000
[tCO2/MWh]
The operating margin emission factor calculated with the simple adjusted OM option is
therefore2:
EFgrid,OM-adj,y =
0.6193
[tCO2/MWh]
STEP 5: IDENTIFY THE COHORT OF POWER PLANTS TO BE
INCLUDED IN THE BUILD MARGIN
According to the Tool, the sample of power plants m used to calculate the build margin costs of
either:
a) The set of five power plants that have been built most recently, or
b) The set of power capacity additions in the electricity system that comprise 20% of the
system generation (in MWh) and have been built most recently.
A total of 16 plants generate a total of 23.1% of the total electricity generation in Kenya, as
presented in the table below. According to the Tool, these plants are the ones to include in the
build margin calculations, since the five 5 most recently built projects do not contribute to the
20% generation threshold.
As explained before, according to the Tool, CDM project activities should be excluded from the
20% system generation. See table 2 below.
2
See calculations in sheet “Simple_OM_Adjusted , Cell “C58”
7
Table 2: List of power plants included in the calculation of the build margin emission factor.
Unit Name
Commissioning
Date
Energy that comprises up to
20% of the system generation EGm,y
dd/mm/yy
Generation (non
CDM)
CDM
(Y/N)
0.7018
N
Share
of
total
grid
generation
[%]
EMBAKASI GT 1
01/10/2013
[MWh]
CDM
5549.39
AGGREKO
(Embakasi)10
01/04/2013
40142.79
AGGREKO (Embakasi) 9
01/01/2013
22104.12
0.8%
0.7254
N
AGGREKO (Muhoroni 2)
01/01/2013
37487.65
1.3%
0.7254
N
ORPOWER4 STEAM III
01/01/2013
0.00
1.3%
0
Y
THIKA POWER
01/01/2013
152293.30
3.1%
0.6883
N
AGGREKO (Embakasi) 8
01/08/2012
70545.63
3.9%
0.7254
N
EBURRU
01/01/2012
2511.98
4.0%
0
N
01/01/2012
17081.11
4.2%
OLKARIA
WELLHEAD
non
Plant
emission
factor
0.1%
0.5%
N
0.7254
I
N
0
AGGREKO (Muhoroni)
01/10/2011
2178.03
4.2%
0.7254
N
AGGREKO (Embakasi) 7
01/09/2011
4239.50
4.2%
0.7254
N
EMBAKASI GT 2
01/082011
19313.23
4.5%
0.7018
N
TANA
01/04/2011
0.00
4.5%
0
Y
KDP3 (kipevu)
01/01/2011
336375.40
8.5%
0.9526
N
RABAI POWER
01/09/2009
515283.83
14.7%
0.6110
N
IBERAFRICA 2
01/07/2009
280254.55
18.1%
0.6883
N
NGONG
01/01/2009
0.00
18.1%
0
Y
MUMIAS POWER
01/01/2009
0.00
18.1%
0
Y
ORPOWER4 STEAM
01/12/2008
356590.16
22.3%
0
N
ORPOWER4 STEAM II
01/01/2008
0.00
22.3%
Y
SONDU MIRIU
01/10/2007
0.00
22.3%
N
8
STEP 6: CALCULATION OF THE BUILD MARGIN (BM)
EMISSION FACTOR
The build margin emission factor is the generation-weighted average emission factor
(tCO2/MWh) of all power plants m during the most recent year y for which power generation
data is available, calculated as follows:
EFgrid, BM , y 
 EG  EF
 EG
m, y
EL , m , y
(Equation 13 of the Tool)
m
m, y
m
EFgrid,BM,y
Build margin CO2 emission factor in year y (tCO2/MWh)
EGm,y
Net quantity of electricity generated and delivered to the grid by power plant m in
year y (MWh)
EFEL,m,y
CO2 emission factor of power plant m in year y (tCO2/GJ)
m
Power plants included in the build margin
y
Most recent historical year for which power generation is available
Therefore the build margin is calculated as
EFgrid,BM,y =
0.5793
[tCO2/MWh]
STEP 7: CALCULATION OF THE COMBINED MARGIN
EMISSION FACTOR
The combined margin emission factor is the overall grid emission factor to be used for an
electricity system. It is calculated as a combination of the operating margin emission factor and
build margin emission factor as seen in equation 14 below.
EFgrid,CM , y  EFgrid,OM , y  wOM  EFgrid, BM , y  wBM
(Equation 14 of
the Tool)
EFgrid,BM,y = Build Margin CO2 emission factor in year y (tCO2/MWh)
9
EFgrid,OM,y = Operating margin CO2 emission factor in year y (tCO2/MWh)
wOM = Weighting of operating margin emissions factor (%)
wBM = Weighting of build margin emissions factor (%)
According to the Tool the following default values should be used for wOM and wBM:


Wind and solar power generation project activities: wOM = 0.75 and wBM = 0.25 (owing to
their intermittent and non-dispatchable nature) for the first crediting period and for
subsequent crediting periods.
All other projects: wOM = 0.5 and wBM = 0.5 for the first crediting period, and wOM = 0.25
and wBM = 0.75 for the second and third crediting period, unless otherwise specified in
the approved methodology which refers to this tool.
The calculation of equation 14 can be seen in Table 3 below for wind and solar projects in the
second column, all other projects in the third column and in the last column the factor to be
used for projects that have already completed their 1st crediting period.
Table 3: Calculation of the Standardised Baseline Combined Margin Emission Factor, EFgrid,CM,y3
All Other Projects (1st
crediting period)
All Other Projects
(2nd and 3rd crediting
period)
0.6193
0.6193
0.6193
0.75
0.5
0.25
0.5793
0.5793
0.5793
0.25
0.5
0.75
0.6093
0.5993
0.5893
Solar and Wind
Projects
EFgrid,OM,y
(tCO2e/MWh)
WOM (%)
EFgrid,BM,y
(tCO2e/MWh)
WBM (%)
EFgrid,CM,y
(tCO2e/MWh)
Project activities applying this standardised baseline will have for their first crediting period:


3
A combined margin grid emission factor of 0.6093 tCO2e/MWh , calculated for solar
and wind projects; or
A combined margin grid emission factor of 0.5993 tCO2e/MWh , calculated for all other
projects.
Refer to calculations worksheet - Sheet “Combined Margin”
10
CONCLUSION
This standardised baseline will provide project owners with a standardised grid emission factor
for the determination of their emission reductions. This will simplify the calculation of emission
reductions and removals for CDM project activities and reduce verification costs. It further
assures environmental integrity in the emission reductions calculated. The use of the
standardised baseline will significantly reduce the complexity in the determination of emissions
reductions. This may be particularly relevant for Kenya where, according to KPLC, the
Government’s plan to develop at least 5,000MW of additional generation capacity by 20174.
The national grid emission factor was calculated with a 95% confidence over the three-year
period 2011-2013, as:



4
0.6093 tCO2eq/MWh for solar and wind projects;
0.5993 tCO2eq/MWh for all other projects in the first crediting period;
0.5893 tCO2eq/MWh for all project activities in the second and third crediting period.
http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFKCN0J50GC20141121
11
APPENDIX
A:
CORRECTED
ERRORS
IN
THE
TOOL
SPREADSHEET
The GEF calculations are based on the UNFCCC’s Methodological Tool “Tool to calculate the
emission factor for an electricity system ” (version 4.0.0). However, some errors have been
detected in the spreadsheet (version 3.0.0) attached to the published version on UNFCCC
website (https://cdm.unfccc.int/Reference/tools/index.html ).

Sheets Lambda
Cell “B8”
In all three sheets (2011, 2012 and 2013) cell “B8” was edited to include a formula to calculate
the total electricity generation from low-cost / must-run sources, linking this cell to the sheet
“Simple_OM_Adjusted”.

Sheet “Simple_OM_Adjusted”.
Cell “C58”
The formulae inserted to calculate the simple adjusted OM emission factor in the published
spreadsheet was not consistent with equation (8) of the Tool. Proper formulas have therefore
been used.
Cells “C54 to 56”
The order of the years was modified to match the order of the emission factors calculated above,
i.e from 2013 to 2011. This also allowed correcting the formulae in cells “K38”, “K40” and
“K42” which previously contained an incorrect combination of years (lambda vs emission
factor).
Column “M”
The formula inserted in the published spreadsheet was incomplete, i.e. the argument “1” was
missing in the bracket. The proper formula has therefore been used.

Sheet “Combined Margin”
This sheet was added to simply include the calculation of the CM emission factor.
12
APPENDIX B: POWER SYSTEM OPERATIONS STATISTICS
FOR 6 YEARS
The data in Table 4 below are taken from the ANNUAL REPORT AND FINANCIAL
STATEMENTS 2012/2013 from KPLC (pages 113-114).
Table 4: Installed capacity and electricity generation in the national grid in Kenya
13
14
APPENDIX C: RAW DATA
i. Net calorific value (NCVi,y) of fossil fuel
Three fuel types are used in the power plants in Kenya, as are outlined in Table 5 below.
Table 5: Net calorific values for the different fossil fuel types used
Fuel Type Description
NCVi,y
Reference
(GJ/tonne)
AGO
Automotive Gas Oil
42.70
DEFRA 2013: Sheet - Fuel Properties
HFO
Heavy Fuel Oil
40.70
Kerosene
Kerosene (a light fuel oil) 43.10
DEFRA 2013: Sheet - Fuel Properties
Annamalai, Kalyan; Ishwar Kanwar Puri (2006).
Combustion Science and Engineering. CRC Press.
p. 851. ISBN 978-0-8493-2071-2.
ii. CO2 emission factor by fossil fuel type (EFCO2,i,y)
The CO2 emission factors for the fossil fuels were from IPCC (2006). The fossil fuels emission
factors are outlined in Table 6 below.
Table 6: Emission factors of fossil fuel types used
Fuel Type
Description
EFCO2,i,y
(tCO2/GJ)
AGO
Automotive Gas Oil
0.0726
HFO
Heavy Fuel Oil
0.0755
Kerosene
Kerosene (a light fuel oil)
0.0708
Reference
Table 2.2 IPCC Emission Factors (Gas/Diesel
Oil)
Table 2.2 IPCC Emission Factors (Residual Fuel
Oil)
Table 2.2 IPCC Emission Factors (Other
Kerosene)
15