MECA Market Growth Road Map – Population Data
May 2005
Regulatory Item
LDVs/LDTs
Tier 2
LEV II
ZEV
Population Data
Notes
Total North American LDV/LDT production (2002):
16,196,853
-By country:
U.S.: 12,001,302
Canada: 2,513,836
Mexico: 1,681,715
-By vehicle type:
North America car: 7,443,976
North America truck: 8,752,877
(2002 Market Data Book, Automotive News)
Total number of U.S. registered passenger cars (2000):
133,621,420
(Source: National Transportation Statistics 2002, Bureau
of Transportation Statistics)
Tier 3/LEV III
Greenhouse Gas
Highway Motorcycles
ARB projects new vehicle sales of gasoline PZEVs in
California to be approximately 750,000 in 2012.
ARB projects new vehicle sales of AT PZEVs in
California to be approximately 150,000 in 2012.
(Source: ARB)
To be determined
ca. 2 million LDV/LDT sold in CA annually
Total sales of highway motorcycles in 2000 was estimated
to be 438,000. (Source: U.S. EPA NPRM, 8/02)
U.S. sales of all new motorcycle reached 1,050,000 units
in 2004 (Motorcycle Industry Council)
In 1998, there were about 5.4 million highway
motorcycles in use in the U.S. (565,000 of which are
dual-sport). Total sales of highway motorcycles in 1998
was estimated to be 411,000, or about 72 percent of
motorcycle sales. About 13,000 of these were dual-sport
MECA
1
Honda, Harley Davidson, Yamaha, Kawasaki, Suzuki, and
BMW account for nearly 95 percent of all motorcycles
sold. Dozens of other minor players make up the
remaining few percent. Based on available information,
over half of all motorcycles sold in 1998 were made by
Honda and Harley Davidson, with the two companies
maintaining almost equal market shares of about 25
percent each
2003 market share info: Honda-27.4%; Harley-23.7%;
Yamaha-17.4%; Suzuki-10.8%; Kawasaki-8.7%
February 2005
Regulatory Item
Aftermarket Converter OBD
Upgrade Converter
On-Road HDEs
Phase II
Population Data
motorcycles. (Source: Motorcycle Industry Council)
New aftermarket converters manufactured for sale in
North America (2004): approximately 3.4 million
(Source: MECA)
6-8 million 1984-1994 MY LDVs in CA
(Source: conversations with Paul Hughes of ARB)
Notes
Based on data from engine manufacturers, it was
estimated that engine sales in 1995 were:
-Light heavy-duty engines: 280,000
-Medium heavy-duty engines: 140,000
-Heavy heavy-duty engines: 220,000
Numbers are projected to grow at an annual rate of two
percent without compounding through 2035. Therefore,
estimated 2003 sales would be:
-LHD: 328,066
-MHD: 164,031
-HHD: 257,765
(Source: U.S. EPA Regulatory Support Document)
Market Share for Class 8 diesel engines (Source: Merrill
Lynch):
Caterpillar
Cummins
DDC
Mack
Mercedes
Navistar
Volvo
2004
30.2%
25.4%
18.3%
9.6%
8.3%
3.4%
4.8%
2003
33.8%
20.5%
16.6%
10.4%
10.3%
4.3%
4.1%
2002
34.0%
23.5%
21.8%
12.3%
1.6%
4.0%
2.8%
In April 2005 a report released by R. L. Polk & Co.
analyzed new vehicle registration data from 2000 through
2004. Light heavy-duty diesel vehicle (diesel pick-ups)
registrations increased from 278,136 in 2000 to 433, 787
in 2004 (56% increase)
In February 2005 Merrill Lynch reported Class 8 diesel
engine sales for December 2004 were 22, 937 units, a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 259,194 units (Sept.Oct. 2004 seasonally adjusted annual sales rates reported
to be over 300,000 units). Class 8 engine sales would be
used in HHD applications.
Off-Road Engines
Nonroad CI Engines
MECA
EPA anticipates that approximately 800,000 new nonroad
diesel engines annually will be subject to the nonroad
rulemaking (figure based on annual sales of nonroad
diesel engines). (Source: U.S. EPA)
2
February 2005
Regulatory Item
Nonroad SI Engines >25 hp
Population Data
Notes
Projected breakdown of the number of engines to be
affected annually by EPA’s nonroad rule:
Rated
Percentage
Number of
Power
Breakdown
Engines
of 2000 Population
<11 hp
6%
48,000
11-25 hp
13%
104,000
25-50 hp
17%
136,000
50-70 hp
12%
96,000
70-100 hp
20%
160,000
100-175 hp
16%
128,000
175-750 hp
16%
128,000
>750 hp
0.3%
2,400
(Source: Percentage breakdown of 2000 population by
U.S. EPA; Projection of number of engines by MECA)
Total large SI engine sales are about 150,000 per year in
the U.S. (Source: U.S. EPA)
Sales are distributed rather evenly among several
companies, so typical sales volumes for each company
range generally from 10,000 to 25,000 engines per year.
ARB estimates current lift truck population in CA at
approx. 40,000 units (about 30,000 with SI engines, the
rest are electric)
MECA
3
February 2005
Regulatory Item
Recreational SI Engines
Population Data
Off-Highway Motorcycles
-Total sales of off-highway motorcycles in 2001 was
estimated to be 195,000. (Source: U.S. EPA Regulatory
Support Document, 9/02)
-In 1998, off-highway motorcycles comprised 28 percent
of total motorcycle sales. (Source: Motorcycle Industry
Council)
Snowmobiles
-Total sales of snowmobiles in 2001 was estimated to be
228,000. (Source: U.S. EPA Regulatory Support
Document, 9/02)
ATVs
-Total sales of ATVs in 2001 was estimated to be
880,000. (Source: U.S. EPA Regulatory Support
Document, 9/02)
Notes
EPA is aware of five major companies that dominate sales
of off-highway motorcycles. Four of these companies,
Honda, Kawasaki, Suzuki, and Yamaha, are long
established, major corporations that manufacture a number
of products including highway and off-highway
motorcycles. They have dominated the off-highway
motorcycle market for over thirty years. The fifth major
company, KTM, is also long established but has had a
major impact in domestic sales over the last 10 to 15 years.
These five companies account for approximately 90 to 95
percent of all domestic sales for off-highway motorcycles.
Based on available industry information, four major
snowmobile manufacturers, Arctic Cat, Bombardier (also
known as Ski-Doo), Polaris, and Yamaha, account for
approximately 99 percent of all domestic snowmobile sales
The ATV sector has the broadest assortment of major
manufacturers. With the exception of KTM, all of the
companies noted above for off-highway motorcycles and
snowmobiles are significant ATV producers. These seven
companies represent over 95 percent of total domestic
ATV sales. The remaining 5 percent come from importers
who tend to import inexpensive, youth-oriented ATVs
from China and other Asian nations
MECA
4
February 2005
Regulatory Item
Nonroad SI Engines <25 hp
Population Data
Handheld (Source: PPEMA)
-Chain Saws: During 2000, industry shipments of
gasoline-powered chain saws fell 10 percent to 2,126,680
units. It was estimated that industry shipments for 2001
would remain at 2000 levels.
-Trimmers and Brushcutters: During 2000, industry
shipments of gasoline-powered trimmers and brushcutters
increased 9 percent to 4,749,500 units. It was estimated
that industry shipments for 2001 would increase 2
percent.
-Handheld Blowers: During 2000, industry shipments of
gasoline-powered hand held blowers increased 15 percent
to 1,895,030 units. It was estimated that industry
shipments for 2001 would increase 5 percent.
-Backpack Blowers: During 2000, industry shipments of
gasoline-powered backpack blowers increased 6 percent
to 308,450 units. It was estimated that industry shipments
for 2001 would increase 2 percent.
-Cutoff Saws: During 2000, industry shipments of
gasoline-powered cutoff saws decreased 2 percent to
119,720 units. It was estimated that industry shipments
for 2001 would remain at 2000 levels.
-Hedge Trimmers: During 2000, industry shipments of
gasoline-powered hedge trimmers increased 19 percent to
380,900 units. It was estimated that industry shipments
for 2001 would increase 5 percent.
-Edgers: During 2001, industry shipments of gasolinepowered edgers increased 16 percent to 77,350 units. It
was estimated that industry shipments for 2001 would
increase 2 percent.
Notes
Recent (statements made in 2005) EPA estimates for Class
1 (< 225 cc non-handheld) engine production in the U.S.
are approximately 9-10 million engines; for Class 2 (> 225
cc non-handheld) approximately 4.5 million engines
Nonhandheld (Source: OPEI)
-For the 2001 model year, shipments of consumer walkbehinds were forecast to decrease by 1.8% to 6,031,941,
while all riding units were forecast to drop 3.8% to
1,650,797. For 2002, consumer walk-behinds were
forecast to be down 0.7%, and all riding units would drop
1.5%.
MECA
5
February 2005
Regulatory Item
Marine SI Outboard/PWC
Marine SI Sterndrive
Recreational CI Marine
Commercial CI Marine
Locomotives
Diesel Retrofit
School Buses
Transit Buses (CA)
MECA
Population Data
In 2000, NMMA estimated that 241,600 outboard motors
and 92,000 personal watercraft were sold. (Source:
National Marine Manufacturers Association)
Population of sterndrive boats in 2002: 1,767,100
Population of inboard boats (CI and SI) in 2002:
1,705,700
Retails sales estimates of sterndrive boats in 2002:
68,400
Retail sales estimates of inboard boats (CI and SI) in
2002: 20,800
(Source: National Marine Manufacturers Association)
Population of inboard boats (CI and SI) in 2002:
1,705,700
Retail sales estimates of inboard boats (CI and SI) in
2002: 20,800
(Source: National Marine Manufacturers Association)
To be determined
Total number of Class I locomotives (2000): 20,028
Total number of Amtrak locomotives (2000): 378
Class I locomotive deliveries (2000): 640
Amtrak locomotive deliveries (2000): 4
(Source: National Transportation Statistics 2002, Bureau
of Transportation Statistics)
Notes
In 2001, there were approximately 454,000 total school
buses in the U.S. (Source: “Pollution Report Card”,
Union of Concerned Scientists, Feb. 2002)
In 2001, 6,656 total diesel urban buses (pre-88: 975, 8890: 1656, 91-93: 1435, 94-95: 359, 96-02: 2331)
(Source: ARB presentation, “Workshop – Transit Bus
Fleet Rule”, El Monte, June 25, 2002)
Breakdown of U.S. school bus population by model year
and state can be found in the full UCS report:
www.ucsusa.org/publication.cfm?publicationID=418
6
Recent statements made by NMMA (April 2005) indicate
2004 sales of sterndrive/inboard gasoline engines were
approximately 140,000 units with the following
breakdown:
5.0 or 5.7 L V8 – ca. 80,000 engines
4.3 L V6 – ca. 30,000 engines
8.1 L V8 – ca. 9,000 engines
February 2005
Regulatory Item
Solid Waste Collection Vehicles (CA)
Population Data
There are approximately 13,000 solid waste collection
vehicles statewide (Source: conversation with ARB’s
Nancy Steele)
In Los Angeles, 683 city-owned vehicles in refuse fleet
(661 belong to the Bureau of Sanitation). (Source: ARB
report, “Preliminary Assessment of Technology for Diesel
Particulate Matter Reduction from Solid Waste Collection
Vehicles”, Appendix C, April 2003)
Fuel Tanker Trucks (CA)
Public HDV Fleets (CA)
Ground Support Equipment (CA)
Transport Refrigeration Units (CA)
MECA
ca. 3200 trucks operating in CA (14,000 lb. GVW or
greater)
50% of the fleet is 98 MY or newer
(Source: ARB workshop presentation from September10,
2003 public workshop)
ARB fleet survey currently being updated; data to date
shows more than 49 vehicle types with the following
distribution of engine ages:
- pre-1987: 15%
1988-1990: 12%
1991-1993: 17%
1994-2003: 55%
Number of diesel GSE in South Coast (1997 fleet):
-pre-90: 396
-post-90: 553
Number of diesel GSE in rest of CA (1999 fleet): ~1,225
(Source: Air Transport Association presentation, “DPF
Demonstration/Verification Project”, September 23,
2002)
Notes
Breakdown by engine manufacturer statewide: Cummins 65%, Volvo - 13%, Caterpillar - 12%,
International/Navistar - 5%, Detroit Diesel - 2%, Mack 2%, Other - 1%
Breakdown by fleet application statewide: side loader 39%, rear loader - 29%, front end loader - 25%, rolloff 7%
(Source: ARB report, “Preliminary Assessment of
Technology for Diesel Particulate Matter Reduction from
Solid Waste Collection Vehicles”, Appendix C, April 2003)
Breakdown of GSE in South Coast (1997 fleet):
-diesel aircraft tractors: pre-90: 94, post:-90: 64
-diesel baggage tractors: pre-90: 73, post-90: 97
-diesel cargo tractors: pre-90: 1, post-90: 15
-diesel belt loaders: pre-90: 32, post-90: 59
-diesel cargo loaders: pre-90: 36, post-90: 99
-diesel air conditioners: pre-90: 4, post-90: 6
-diesel air starts: pre-90: 41, post-90: 32
-diesel ground power units: pre-90: 69, post-90: 75
(Source: Air Transport Association presentation, “DPF
Demonstration/Verification Project”, September 23, 2002)
Existing population: 40,831 (Source: ARB presentation,
“Regulatory Approaches to Reduce Particulate Matter
Emissions from Transport Refrigeration Units”, March 6,
2003)
7
February 2005
Regulatory Item
Stationary Engines (CA)
MECA
Population Data
Emergency standby engines: 11,350
Prime engines: 1,360
(Source: ARB presentation, “Presentation of the Methods
and Key Assumptions for Estimating the Costs for In-Use
Stationary Engines”, March 6, 2003)
8
Notes
February 2005