MECA Market Growth Road Map – Population Data
November 2006
Regulatory Item
LDVs/LDTs
Tier 2
LEV II
ZEV
Population Data
Notes
Total North American LDV/LDT production (2002):
16,196,853
-By country:
U.S.: 12,001,302
Canada: 2,513,836
Mexico: 1,681,715
-By vehicle type:
North America car: 7,443,976
North America truck: 8,752,877
(2002 Market Data Book, Automotive News)
U. S. light-duty vehicle sales in 2005 totaled
approximately 17 million units with passenger cars
representing 48.5% of sales, light-duty trucks 51.5% of
sales
Total number of U.S. registered passenger cars (2004):
136,430,651
(Source: National Transportation Statistics 2006,
Bureau of Transportation Statistics)
ARB projects new vehicle sales of gasoline PZEVs in
California to be approximately 750,000 in 2012.
ARB projects new vehicle sales of AT PZEVs in
California to be approximately 150,000 in 2012.
(Source: ARB)
Tier 3/LEV III
LEV compliant states about 25% of total U.S. sales
Greenhouse Gas
ca. 2 million LDV/LDT sold in CA annually
MECA
1
States currently committed to ARB standards: Oregon,
Washington, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts,
Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, Maine
November 2006
Regulatory Item
Highway Motorcycles
Population Data
Total sales of highway motorcycles in 2000 were
estimated to be 438,000. (Source: U.S. EPA NPRM,
8/02)
U.S. sales of all new motorcycle reached 1,050,000 units
in 2004 (Motorcycle Industry Council)
In 1998, there were about 5.4 million highway
motorcycles in use in the U.S. (565,000 of which are
dual-sport). Total sales of highway motorcycles in 1998
were estimated to be 411,000, or about 72 percent of
motorcycle sales. About 13,000 of these were dual-sport
motorcycles. (Source: Motorcycle Industry Council)
Light-duty Aftermarket Converters
New aftermarket converters manufactured for sale in
North America (2004): approximately 3.4 million
(Source: MECA)
Upgrade Light-duty Catalytic
Converters
6-8 million 1984-1994 MY LDVs in CA
(Source: conversations with Paul Hughes of ARB)
MECA
2
Notes
Honda, Harley Davidson, Yamaha, Kawasaki, Suzuki, and
BMW account for nearly 95 percent of all motorcycles
sold. Dozens of other minor players make up the
remaining few percent. Based on available information,
over half of all motorcycles sold in 1998 were made by
Honda and Harley Davidson, with the two companies
maintaining almost equal market shares of about 25
percent each
2003 market share info: Honda-27.4%; Harley-23.7%;
Yamaha-17.4%; Suzuki-10.8%; Kawasaki-8.7%
November 2006
Regulatory Item
On-Road HDEs
Phase II
Population Data
Notes
Based on data from engine manufacturers, it was
estimated that engine sales in 1995 were:
-Light heavy-duty engines: 280,000
-Medium heavy-duty engines: 140,000
-Heavy heavy-duty engines: 220,000
Numbers are projected to grow at an annual rate of two
percent without compounding through 2035. Therefore,
estimated 2003 sales would be:
-LHD: 328,066
-MHD: 164,031
-HHD: 257,765
(Source: U.S. EPA Regulatory Support Document)
Market Share for Class 8 diesel engines (Source: Merrill
Lynch):
In April 2005 a report released by R. L. Polk & Co.
analyzed new vehicle registration data from 2000 through
2004. Light heavy-duty diesel vehicle (diesel pick-ups)
registrations increased from 278,136 in 2000 to 433, 787
in 2004 (56% increase)
Market Share for Class 8 truck sales (Source: Merrill
Lynch):
In December 2005 Merrill Lynch reported Class 8 diesel
truck sales for 12 months ending Nov. 30, 2005 were
299,448 units compared to 227,877 units for the same 12
month period ending Nov. 30, 2004. Class 5-7 truck
sales for 12 months ending Nov. 30, 2005 were 231,946
units compared to 226,706 units for 12 months ending
Nov. 30, 2004.
Caterpillar
Cummins
DDC
Mack
Mercedes
Navistar
Volvo
2005
DC
36%
PACCAR 23%
Navistar
19%
Volvo
19%
Others
3%
3
2003
33.8%
20.5%
16.6%
10.4%
10.3%
4.3%
4.1%
2002
34.0%
23.5%
21.8%
12.3%
1.6%
4.0%
2.8%
2004
36%
26%
19%
19%
1%
Market Share for Class 5-7 truck sales (Source: Merrill
Lynch):
Navistar
DC
Ford
GMC
PACCAR
Others
MECA
2004
30.2%
25.4%
18.3%
9.6%
8.3%
3.4%
4.8%
2005
27%
20%
20%
15%
4%
13%
2004
26%
20%
22%
12%
4%
16%
November 2006
Regulatory Item
Off-Road Engines
Nonroad CI Engines
Population Data
Notes
EPA anticipates that approximately 800,000 new nonroad
diesel engines annually will be subject to the nonroad
rulemaking (figure based on annual sales of nonroad
diesel engines). (Source: U.S. EPA)
EPA estimates that there are approximately 2 million
pieces of construction equipment operating in the U.S.
Projected breakdown of the number of engines to be
affected annually by EPA’s nonroad rule:
Rated
Percentage
Number of
Power
Breakdown
Engines
of 2000 Population
<11 hp
6%
48,000
11-25 hp
13%
104,000
25-50 hp
17%
136,000
50-70 hp
12%
96,000
70-100 hp
20%
160,000
100-175
16%
128,000
hp
175-750
16%
128,000
hp
>750 hp
0.3%
2,400
(Source: Percentage breakdown of 2000 population by
U.S. EPA; Projection of number of engines by MECA)
Nonroad SI Engines >25 hp
-Total large SI engine sales are about 150,000 per year in
the U.S. (Source: U.S. EPA)
U.S. and Canada 2006 Sales Forecast for new farm wheel
tractors and self propelled combines:
Equipment
U.S.
Canada
2-wheel drive
205,834
16,575
tractors
4-wheel drive
3,401
612
tractors
Combines
6,232
1,490
(Source: Association of Equipment Manufacturers)
Sales are distributed rather evenly among several
companies, so typical sales volumes for each company
range generally from 10,000 to 25,000 engines per year.
-Population of large SI engines estimated using EPA
NONROAD2005 model: 442,000
-ARB estimates current lift truck population in CA at
approx. 40,000 units (about 30,000 with SI engines, the
rest are electric)
MECA
4
November 2006
Regulatory Item
Recreational SI Engines
Population Data
Off-Highway Motorcycles
-Total sales of off-highway motorcycles in 2001 was
estimated to be 195,000. (Source: U.S. EPA Regulatory
Support Document, 9/02)
-Population of 2-stroke off-highway motorcycles
estimated using EPA NONROAD2005 model: 801,320
-Population of 4-stroke off-highway motorcycles
estimated using EPA NONROAD2005 model: 394,680
-In 1998, off-highway motorcycles comprised 28 percent
of total motorcycle sales. (Source: Motorcycle Industry
Council)
Notes
EPA is aware of five major companies that dominate sales
of off-highway motorcycles. Four of these companies,
Honda, Kawasaki, Suzuki, and Yamaha, are long
established, major corporations that manufacture a number
of products including highway and off-highway
motorcycles. They have dominated the off-highway
motorcycle market for over thirty years. The fifth major
company, KTM, is also long established but has had a
major impact in domestic sales over the last 10 to 15 years.
These five companies account for approximately 90 to 95
percent of all domestic sales for off-highway motorcycles.
Snowmobiles
-Total sales of snowmobiles in 2001 were estimated to be
228,000. (Source: U.S. EPA Regulatory Support
Document, 9/02)
-Population of 2-stroke snowmobiles estimated using
EPA NONROAD2005 model: 1,512,675
Based on available industry information, four major
snowmobile manufacturers, Arctic Cat, Bombardier (also
known as Ski-Doo), Polaris, and Yamaha, account for
approximately 99 percent of all domestic snowmobile
sales
ATVs
-Total sales of ATVs in 2001 were estimated to be
880,000. (Source: U.S. EPA Regulatory Support
Document, 9/02)
-Population of 2-stroke ATVs estimated using EPA
NONROAD2005 model: 405,000
-Population of 4-stroke ATVs estimated using EPA
NONROAD2005 model: 3,505,000
MECA
5
The ATV sector has the broadest assortment of major
manufacturers. With the exception of KTM, all of the
companies noted above for off-highway motorcycles and
snowmobiles are significant ATV producers. These seven
companies represent over 95 percent of total domestic
ATV sales. The remaining 5 percent come from importers
who tend to import inexpensive, youth-oriented ATVs
from China and other Asian nations
November 2006
Regulatory Item
Nonroad SI Engines <25 hp
MECA
Population Data
Handheld (Source: PPEMA)
-Chain Saws: During 2000, industry shipments of
gasoline-powered chain saws fell 10 percent to 2,126,680
units. It was estimated that industry shipments for 2001
would remain at 2000 levels. Using EPA
NONROAD2005 model, EPA estimates that there are
approximately 5,870,500 2-stroke chain saws <6 hp.
-Trimmers, Edgers and Brushcutters: During 2000,
industry shipments of gasoline-powered trimmers and
brushcutters increased 9 percent to 4,749,500 units. It
was estimated that industry shipments for 2001 would
increase 2 percent. During 2001, industry shipments of
gasoline-powered edgers increased 16 percent to 77,350
units. It was estimated that industry shipments for 2001
would increase 2 percent. Using EPA NONROAD2005
model, EPA estimates that there are approximately
15,400,000 2-stroke trimmers, edgers and brushcutters
and approximately 256,941 4-stroke trimmers, edgers
and brushcutters.
-Handheld Blowers: During 2000, industry shipments of
gasoline-powered hand held blowers increased 15
percent to 1,895,030 units. It was estimated that industry
shipments for 2001 would increase 5 percent.
-Backpack Blowers: During 2000, industry shipments of
gasoline-powered backpack blowers increased 6 percent
to 308,450 units. It was estimated that industry
shipments for 2001 would increase 2 percent.
-Cutoff Saws: During 2000, industry shipments of
gasoline-powered cutoff saws decreased 2 percent to
119,720 units. It was estimated that industry shipments
for 2001 would remain at 2000 levels.
-Hedge Trimmers: During 2000, industry shipments of
gasoline-powered hedge trimmers increased 19 percent to
380,900 units. It was estimated that industry shipments
for 2001 would increase 5 percent.
6
Notes
Recent (statements made in 2005) EPA estimates for Class
1 (< 225 cc non-handheld) engine production in the U.S.
are approximately 9-10 million engines; for Class 2 (> 225
cc non-handheld) approximately 4.5 million engines
Data presented by EPA at the October 5, 2005 small
engine workshop indicate major engine manufacturers for
non-handheld equipment include: Briggs & Stratton (>
50% share), Tecumseh, Honda, Kohler, Kawasaki, Fuji,
and Onan. Major equipment manufacturers for nonhandheld equipment include: EHP, MTD, Briggs &
Stratton, Murray, Toro, Honda, Deere, and Ariens.
November 2006
Regulatory Item
Nonroad SI Engines <25 hp
(continued)
Marine SI Outboard/PWC
Marine SI Inboard/Sterndrive
Recreational CI Marine
Commercial CI Marine
MECA
Population Data
Non-handheld (Source: OPEI)
-For the 2001 model year, shipments of consumer walkbehinds were forecast to decrease by 1.8% to 6,031,941,
while all riding units were forecast to drop 3.8% to
1,650,797. For 2002, consumer walk-behinds were
forecast to be down 0.7%, and all riding units would drop
1.5%.
-2006 North American market forecast for new lawn and
garden equipment: gasoline-17,252,526; diesel- 48,418
(Source: Power Systems Research, December 2005)
-In 2000, NMMA estimated that 241,600 outboard
motors and 92,000 personal watercraft were sold.
(Source: National Marine Manufacturers Association)
-2006 market forecast for new marine SI engines:
429,309 (Source: Power Systems Research, December
2005)
-Population of 2-stroke personal water craft estimated
using EPA NONROAD2005 model: 1,205,783
Notes
-Population of sterndrive boats in 2002: 1,767,100
-Population of inboard boats (CI and SI) in 2002:
1,705,700
-Population of 4-stroke inboard/sterndrive boats
estimated using EPA NONROAD2005 model: 1,866,552
-Retails sales estimates of sterndrive boats in 2002:
68,400
-Retail sales estimates of inboard boats (CI and SI) in
2002: 20,800
(Source: National Marine Manufacturers Association)
Recent statements made by NMMA (April 2005) indicate
2004 sales of sterndrive/inboard gasoline engines were
approximately 140,000 units with the following
breakdown:
Population of inboard boats (CI and SI) in 2002:
1,705,700
Retail sales estimates of inboard boats (CI and SI) in
2002: 20,800
(Source: National Marine Manufacturers Association)
2006 North American market forecast for new marine CI
engines: 45,222 (Source: Power Systems Research,
December 2005)
EPA estimates that the market for new recreational marine
diesel engines would be approximately 10,000 per year if
EPA implements its proposed emission standards for new
marine engines.
7
5.0 or 5.7 L V8 – ca. 80,000 engines
4.3 L V6 – ca. 30,000 engines
8.1 L V8 – ca. 9,000 engines
EPA estimates that the market for new commercial CI
marine engines would approximately 5,000-6,000 per year
if EPA implements its proposed emission standards for
new marine engines.
November 2006
Regulatory Item
Locomotives
Population Data
-Total number of Class I locomotives (2004): 22,015
-Total number of Amtrak locomotives (2004): 276
-Class I locomotive deliveries (2004): 1,121
(Source: National Transportation Statistics 2006,
Bureau of Transportation Statistics)
Notes
EPA estimates that the market for new GE, EMD large
locomotives would be approximately 1,000/year and
approximately 200/year of switcher locomotives if EPA
implements its proposed emission standards for new
locomotives.
Stationary CI Engines/SI Engines
-EPA estimates 81,500 new stationary CI engines sold in
U.S. annually
(Source: EPA Stationary CI Engine NPRM, July 2005)
-Breakdown of SI engines by types:
42% 4-stroke rich-burn engines
47% 4-stroke lean-burn engines
11% 2-stroke lean-burn engines
-SI engine population <500 hp by industry segment:
56% crude petroleum and natural gas
20% natural gas transmission
-EPA estimates that by 2010, there will be
approximately 240,000 SI engines>50 hp.
Diesel Retrofit
School Buses
Transit Buses & Transit Fleet Vehicles
(CA)
In 2001, there were approximately 454,000 total school
buses in the U.S. (Source: “Pollution Report Card”,
Union of Concerned Scientists, Feb. 2002)
Breakdown of U.S. school bus population by model year
and state can be found in the full UCS report:
www.ucsusa.org/publication.cfm?publicationID=418
In 2001, 6,656 total diesel urban buses (pre-88: 975, 8890: 1656, 91-93: 1435, 94-95: 359, 96-02: 2331)
(Source: ARB presentation, “Workshop – Transit Bus
Fleet Rule”, El Monte, June 25, 2002)
Transit Fleet Vehicles in CA total approximately 3500
diesel vehicles with GVW of 8500 lb. or greater
(Source: ARB staff report on regulations for transit fleet
vehicles, January 2005)
MECA
8
November 2006
Regulatory Item
Solid Waste Collection Vehicles (CA)
Population Data
There are approximately 13,000 solid waste collection
vehicles statewide (Source: conversation with ARB’s
Nancy Steele)
In Los Angeles, 683 city-owned vehicles in refuse fleet
(661 belong to the Bureau of Sanitation). (Source: ARB
report, “Preliminary Assessment of Technology for
Diesel Particulate Matter Reduction from Solid Waste
Collection Vehicles”, Appendix C, April 2003)
Fuel Tanker Trucks (CA)
ca. 3200 trucks operating in CA (14,000 lb. GVW or
greater)
50% of the fleet is 98 MY or newer
(Source: ARB workshop presentation from September10,
2003 public workshop)
Public & Utility HDV Fleets (CA)
ARB estimates for heavy-duty diesel public and utility
fleet vehicles operating in California (over 14,000 lb.
GVWR):
Notes
Breakdown by engine manufacturer statewide: Cummins 65%, Volvo - 13%, Caterpillar - 12%,
International/Navistar - 5%, Detroit Diesel - 2%, Mack 2%, Other - 1%
Breakdown by fleet application statewide: side loader 39%, rear loader - 29%, front end loader - 25%, rolloff 7%
(Source: ARB report, “Preliminary Assessment of
Technology for Diesel Particulate Matter Reduction from
Solid Waste Collection Vehicles”, Appendix C, April 2003)
Owned by state & local agencies: 23,227 vehicles
Owned by private utilities: 3,979 vehicles (3,130 of these
owned by 3 largest utilities: Southern California Edison,
PG&E, Sempra Energy)
Federally owned: 2,663 vehicles
(Source: ARB staff report on regulations for public and
utility fleet vehicles, October 2005)
ARB inventory data show more than 49 vehicle types
with the following distribution of engine ages:
- pre-1987: 15%
-1988-1990: 12%
-1991-1993: 17%
-1994-2003: 55%
MECA
9
November 2006
Regulatory Item
Ground Support Equipment (CA)
Population Data
Number of diesel GSE in South Coast (1997 fleet):
-pre-90: 396
-post-90: 553
Number of diesel GSE in rest of CA (1999 fleet): ~1,225
(Source: Air Transport Association presentation, “DPF
Demonstration/Verification Project”, September 23,
2002)
ARB estimates that there are approximately 1,521 total
airport ground support equipments in California (2005
fleet).
Transport Refrigeration Units (CA)
Existing population: 40,831 (Source: ARB presentation,
“Regulatory Approaches to Reduce Particulate Matter
Emissions from Transport Refrigeration Units”, March
6, 2003)
Stationary Engines (CA)
Emergency standby engines: 11,350
Prime engines: 1,360
(Source: ARB presentation, “Presentation of the
Methods and Key Assumptions for Estimating the Costs
for In-Use Stationary Engines”, March 6, 2003)
Cargo Handling Equipment (CA)
ARB estimates that there are approximately 3,700 mobile
cargo handling equipment vehicles at California’s ports
and intermodal rail yards. Equipment types include:
Notes
Breakdown of GSE in South Coast (1997 fleet):
-diesel aircraft tractors: pre-90: 94, post:-90: 64
-diesel baggage tractors: pre-90: 73, post-90: 97
-diesel cargo tractors: pre-90: 1, post-90: 15
-diesel belt loaders: pre-90: 32, post-90: 59
-diesel cargo loaders: pre-90: 36, post-90: 99
-diesel air conditioners: pre-90: 4, post-90: 6
-diesel air starts: pre-90: 41, post-90: 32
-diesel ground power units: pre-90: 69, post-90: 75
(Source: Air Transport Association presentation, “DPF
Demonstration/Verification Project”, September 23, 2002)
Yard Trucks (61% of the population)
Container Handling (13%)
Forklifts (13%)
Cranes (9%)
Bulk Cargo Handling (4%)
(Source: ARB staff report on regulations for mobile
cargo handling equipment, October 2005)
MECA
10
November 2006
Regulatory Item
Heavy-Duty Trucks Involved in
Domestic and International Goods
Movement in California
In-Use Off-road Diesel Engines >25 hp
(CA)
More information on ARB’s California
Public Fleet Heavy-Duty Vehicles and
Equipment Inventory is available at:
http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/ordiesel/
ordiesel.htm
Population Data
Port trucks involved in CA goods movement: ca. 12,000
Notes
-Construction/Mining Equipment:
Tier 0: 35,468
Tier 1: 80,813
Tier 2: 45,302
-Industrial Equipment:
Tier 0: 4,292
Tier 1: 5,115
Tier 2: 1,724
-Airport Ground Support Equipment:
Tier 0: 124
Tier 1: 498
Tier 2: 452
Tier 3: 290
Tier 4 interim: 208
ARB estimates that, as of 2005, there are approximately:
-Construction/Mining Equipment; 152,001
-Industrial Equipment: 17,811
-Oil Drilling: 578
-Airport Ground Support Equipment: 1,521
Public and Private Heavy-Duty Diesel
Trucks (CA)
Heavy-Duty Diesel Truck Population Distribution 2006:
-Medium-Heavy Duty Diesel Truck:
-Private Fleet: 186,715
-Public Fleet: 19,637
-Heavy-Heavy Duty Diesel Truck:
-Private Fleet: 126,870
-Public Fleet: 21,011
-Out-of-State: 50,538
-Trash Truck: 12,732
2008 Heavy-Duty Diesel Truck Inventory (excludes
public fleets, urban buses, or solid waste collection
vehicles):
-CA Registered Class 4-7: 191,865
-CA Registered Class 8: 127,213
MECA
11
November 2006
MECA
12
November 2006