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The need for energy conservation now and in the future, will it die out?
History:
The early 1970's saw the OPEC countries bringing an oil embargo. This move showed the world in graphic terms that it was too dependent on oil as a cheep fuel.
Energy conservation was one effort to limit that dependance on foreign oil . Much was made of the depleting fossil fuels . The McGraw-Hill Encyclopedia of Energy of 1976 3rd edition said "80% of the world's oil will be consumed between 1966 and 2022". They estimate by 2026 that oil production to be down to 25% of 1999 level and only 5% by 2050.
The cry was "get energy from non-depletable sources!" Adding to that concern, the entire world was experiencing another problem that would impact energy conservation.
Today, 2004, the numbers are slightly better and the fuel should last longer.
Less than 20 years later, " global warming" and "green house gases" became household words and a further reason to limit fuel burning was born. Yes, energy conservation became more important.
That brought the EPA into the picture, an organization with real clout! The year
1990 brought a world conference in Geneva, the Second World Climate Conference. Two years later the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in
Rio de Janeiro. This conference was attended by more than 25, 000 people from around the world and 160 countries signed a Goals Paper for climate change. Many people, scientists, and government leaders think Global Warming is a real man made problem that needs fixing.
There are complicated issues which have brought about debate and the consternation that predictions about the weather 10 years from now is irresponsible. The greatest green house gas is Methane, which is generated by decomposing matter. The

number two green house gas is CO2. Has Carbon Dioxide increased? Yes, CO2 has risen 30% since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution about 100 years ago. Scientists feel that there is a 90% chance that temperatures will rise 4 to 5 degrees in the northern hemisphere in the next 10+ years.
That increase of 4 or 5 degrees will be a boon to farmers in the northern hemisphere who can grow better crops and have a longer growing season while receiving rain instead of snow. Many islands of the sea would disappear. Whole coastline towns would be gone as the ocean rises two feet and more in other areas. The hot arid countries would not be able to grow crops. Present drought conditions would likely be worse. On the other hand, rain and snow storms will have more vapor causing heaver storms in the northern countries.
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Fear of these problems moved nations to take action. At Kyoto, Japan, in the mid
1990's the USA's representative promised third world nations that the USA would reduce
CO2 emissions back to the 1990 level by 2012, a 6% to 8% reduction. Many politicians are financially motivated and refuse to agree with these reduction figures, afraid it will affect our economy. This issue will be a real dog fight in the government circles.
I think that the EPA has grown over the years to become the large organization that it is. For example notice the increase in fines starting in 1981 - 7 million, 1983 - 8 million,
1985 - 22 million, 1988 - 31 million dollars. Criminal penalties rose by 500 percent from
1987 to 1989! What accounts for this growth in fines and jail sentences? Protecting our environment costs money and cheating becomes attractive.
In 1990 the amendments to the clean-air-act allowed companies in utilities to purchase one-year permits to release one ton of sulfur dioxide. Stiff penalties are imposed when venting without a permit, therefore, expensive exhaust scrubbers are being installed. The cost of the one-time permit is $125. to $450. dependant on the bidding. Environmental groups have purchased some of the permits sold in March of
1993 and kept them off the market. By the year 2000 9.5 million permits will be sold.
These permits allow sulfur dioxide to be exhausted into the air.
What is the main energy user and CO2 venter? Transportation. To cut transportation emissions the EPA is investigating ways to produce efficient autos. Studies show people think fuel efficiency is a good idea, however people would have to switch autos in order to achieve that. About 30% of those interviewed refused to upgrade autos.
Another idea is raise the cost of gas by $2+ per gallon. This would give incentive to cut travel and for auto manufactures to produce energy efficient transportation. Even the
Sierra Club is pushing for “regulation of transportation” according to the June 1 st , 1998
Los Angeles Times, page D2.
The reality is that no one wants to give up the freedom to drive anywhere and pay little for it. We turn down the thermostat instead of opening the windows. We turn up the thermostat instead of putting on a sweater. The problem is that this society is only a small part of the world population that uses 25% of the world's energy generation.

Besides transportation, another "energy user" governments can control is new construction of conditioned buildings. That is why we are seeing many states requiring
"Energy COMPLIANCE DOCUMENTATION" in some form, an effort to reduce energy use by 35-50%.
Sixteen states accept the MEC (Model Energy Code), the International Building
Code, for residential and a computer compliance program (Res-Check) for residential projects. Most of those same states accept the Com-Check computer program for
Lighting, Mechanical and Envelope compliance on Non-residential buildings. Other states like Washington, California, Florida and Wisconsin have their own form of energy documentation requirements.
Dennis McClain