Information note
Methods change in Public Service
Productivity Estimates: Total Public
Service 2010
1.
Summary
This article provides information on a minor methods change being introduced in this year’s
publication of Public Service Productivity Estimates: Total Public Service 2010. It also outlines the
main sources of data revisions.
2.
Introduction
Public service productivity estimates are produced by calculating the growth in the ratio of volume
of output to the volume of inputs. Estimates of output, inputs and productivity are published on a
calendar year basis and at a UK level.
The forthcoming release of Total Public Service productivity estimates will re-publish estimates for
Education and Healthcare, and revise and update the time series of outputs, inputs and
productivity for the remaining range of public services from 1997 to 2010. These public service
areas broadly follow the international definitions of Classification of the Functions of Government
(COFOG) categories (UN Statistics Division). Alongside Education and Healthcare, the categories
used in the forthcoming article are:

Adult Social Care

Children’s Social Care

Social Security Administration

Public Order and Safety (excluding Police)

Police

Defence and

Other (this includes COFOG categories for General Government Services1, Economic
Affairs, Environmental Protection, Housing, and Recreation)
1
General Government Services includes foreign affairs, economic aid to developing countries, basic
research, and services undertaken by government not specified by function.
Office for National Statistics
Information note
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Methods change in Public Service Productivity Estimates: Total Public Service 2010
The estimates for these service areas are produced in a similar way to previous years e.g. ONS
(2010). However there is a small methods change that will be incorporated in this year’s release
due to changes in the underlying data set available for the police labour inputs deflator.
3.
Simplified method for estimating the police labour deflator
As outlined in the Summary Quality Report for measuring Police inputs (ONS 2009), ONS has
been estimating a deflator for police labour inputs based on numbers of police and support staff in
England, Wales and Scotland, and earnings data from England and Wales.
The disaggregated earnings data to support this method now contains a discontinuity between
2008 and 2009 when the method of collection for the Police Negotiating Board (for England and
Wales) was changed from a Survey to a Census. The current method also requires several data
points to be back-cast in order to obtain a time series from 2000 onwards, and earnings data from
England and Wales is used as a proxy for the rest of the UK.
To eliminate the need for back-casting and to ensure a consistent time series with complete UK
coverage is available, the labour deflator for Police inputs in the forthcoming article Public Service
Productivity Estimates: Total Public Service 2010 uses a simplified method. The 7 categories of
earnings data available in the Police Negotiating Board Census for police officers have been
replaced by two categories of occupational group for police officers available in the Annual Survey
of Hours and Earnings (ASHE):
 Inspectors and above - Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) 1172, and
 Sergeants and below - SOC 3312
Data is available from ASHE from 2000 to 2010, and on a UK basis. The simplified method also
has the advantage of making the earnings data source for police officers and support staff the
same, as ASHE was already the source of earnings for support staff.
The forthcoming article will identify this change of method as a source of revisions.
4.
Revisions
ONS productivity estimates operate an open revisions policy (ONS 2012d). This means that new
data or methods can be incorporated at any time, and will be implemented for the entire time series
of data.
In addition to the change described above, the forthcoming article on Total Public Service
productivity will include a number of data revisions, and will re-publish estimates of Education and
Healthcare output, inputs and productivity. These were last published in March 2012 and
December 2012 respectively (ONS 2012b, ONS 2012f). These articles included new methods and
enhancements which will be a source of revisions to published estimates from the last Total Public
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Methods change in Public Service Productivity Estimates: Total Public Service 2010
Sector productivity article (ONS 2010) which pre-dates these methods changes. The methods
changes relating to Education and Healthcare estimates are described in more detail in ONS
(2012a and 2012e).
In terms of data revisions since the publication of the previous article, Total Public Service Output,
Inputs and Productivity (ONS 2010), the most important are:
5.

Using the latest data for overall expenditure weights for each area of government
service published in March 2012 (ONS 2012c)

Using revised data from National Accounts, for example underlying data on
Children’s Social Care output.

Re-estimated forecasts and back-casts using more data-points than previously
available.
Impact and conclusion
The change to the estimation of the police labour inputs deflator does not have a significant impact
on estimates of inputs overall, given that the weight for Police labour inputs is very small.
Methods changes introduced in the latest Education and Healthcare productivity articles, data
revisions to National Accounts and more up-to-date expenditure weights will provide the major
source of revisions to previous estimates of Total Public Service Output, Inputs and Productivity
(ONS 2010). A section on revisions will be included in the forthcoming Public Service Productivity
Estimates: Total Public Service 2010 article.
Contact information
Fiona.massey@ons.gsi.gov.uk
01633 651552
References
ONS (2009) Summary Quality Report for Public Service Output, Inputs and Productivity:
Measuring Police Inputs
Available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/quality/qualityinformation/government/index.html
ONS (2010)
Total Public Service Output, Inputs and Productivity
Office for National Statistics
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Methods change in Public Service Productivity Estimates: Total Public Service 2010
Available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/psa/public-service-productivity/total-public-serviceoutput-input-and-productivity/index.html
ONS (2012a) Methods changes in Public Service Productivity Estimates: Education 2010
Available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/specific/public-sectormethodology/articles/index.html
ONS (2012b) Public Service Productivity Estimates: Education, 2010
Available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/psa/public-sector-productivity-estimates-education/2010/index.html
ONS (2012c) ESA Table 11 Annual Expenditure of General Government
Available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77238562
ONS (2012d) Public Service Productivity Estimates: Revisions policy
Available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/revisions/revisions-policies-bytheme/economy/index.html
ONS (2012e) Methods changes in Public Service Productivity Estimates: Healthcare 2010
Available at: www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/specific/public-sectormethodology/articles/index.html
ONS (2012f) Public Service Productivity Estimates: Healthcare, 2010
Available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/psa/public-sector-productivity-estimates-healthcare/2010/index.html
UN Statistics Division Detailed Structure and explanatory notes, Classification of Functions of
Government.
Available at: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/cr/registry/regcst.asp?Cl=4&Lg=1
Office for National Statistics
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