CHOICE OF FUNCTIONAL FORM FUNCTIONAL FORM SPECIFICATION ERROR To specify the classical linear regression model, we must choose a specific functional form. We can choose any functional form that is linear in parameters. If we choose the incorrect functional form, then the model is misspecified. It the model is misspecified then it may not be a reasonable approximation of the true data generation process. We make a functional form specification error when we choose the wrong functional form. DIFFERENT TYPES OF LINEAR IN PARAMETERS FUNCTIONAL FORMS There are a large number of linear in parameters functional forms from which we can choose. I will briefly discuss some of those that are most often used. I will do so using one dependent variable (Y) and one explanatory variable (X). This allows me to illustrate the function graphically. However, these functional forms can be easily extended to more than one explanatory variable. Linear in Variables Functional Form Functional form: Graph: Marginal effect: Elasticity: Y = 1 + 2X m = 2 = 2 (X/Y) Note that to obtain an estimate of the elasticity of Y with respect to X, X and Y are evaluated at their sample mean values. To calculate an estimate of the standard error for the elasticity estimate, we can treat (X/Y) as a constant. Thus, s.e.( ) is given by the square root of Var( ) = (X/Y)2Var(2). Double Log Functional Form Functional form: Graph: Marginal effect: Elasticity: lnY = 1 + 2lnX m = 2(Y/X) = 2 For this functional form, the slope parameter is a direct measure of elasticity. To estimate this functional form using OLS, we would first transform the data for Y and X into logarithmic form. We would then run a regression of the log of Y on the log of X. Linear-Log Functional Form Functional form: Graph: Marginal effect: Elasticity: Y = 1 + 2lnX m = 2/X = 2/Y When calculating estimates of the marginal effect and elasticity, X and Y are evaluated at their sample mean values. Treating X and Y as constants, estimates of the standard errors are given by the square roots of the variances: Var(m) = (1/X)2Var(2); Var( ) = (1/Y)2Var(2). To estimate this functional form using OLS, we would first transform the data for X into logarithmic form. We would then run a regression of Y on the log of X. Log-Linear Functional Form Functional form: Graph: Marginal effect: Elasticity: lnY = 1 + 2X m = 2Y = 2X For this functional form, the slope parameter 2 has a useful interpretation. When X changes by one unit, Y will change by approximately 2*100 percent. The smaller the absolute value of 2 the closer the approximation. When calculating estimates of the marginal effect and elasticity, Y and X are evaluated at their sample mean values. Estimates of the standard errors of the estimates of the marginal effect and elasticity are given by the square roots of the variances: Var(m) = Y2Var(2); Var( ) = X2Var(2). To estimate this functional form using OLS, we would first transform the data for Y into logarithmic form. We would then run a regression of the log of Y on X. Quadratic Functional Form Functional form: Graph: Marginal effect: Elasticity: Y = 1 + 2X + 3X2 m = 2 + 23X = (2 + 23X)(X/Y) If 2 < 0 and 3 > 0, then the curve has a U-shape. If 2 > 0 and 3 < 0, then the curve has a hill shape. When calculating estimates of the marginal effect and elasticity, X and Y are evaluated at their sample mean values. The estimate of the standard error of the estimate of the marginal effect is given by the square root of the variance: Var(m) = Var(2) + (2X)2Var(3) + 2(2X)Cov(2, 3). To estimate this functional form using OLS, we would first create a new variable X2. We would then run a regression of the Y on X and X2. Varying Parameter Functional Form There are many situations where one or more of the parameters of a statistical model may not be constant. Rather, the value of the parameter depends on one or more other variables. For example, suppose we have the model Y = + X We might believe that the slope parameter is not constant, but rather depends upon some other variable Z. Assuming that the slope parameter is a linear function of Z yields = 1 + 2Z Substituting we get or equivalently, Y = + (1 + 2Z)X Y = + 1X + 2ZX The new variable Z*X is called an interaction term. This is because it captures the interaction between the variables Z and X. To estimate this model, we create a new variable Z = A*X. We then run an OLS regression of visits on hours worked and the new variable. This is called a varying parameters model. However, it can be view as a specific type of functional form. Functional Form with Lags There are many situations where the value of dependent variable this period may depend on the value of an explanatory both this period and in one or more previous periods. For example, suppose that Y is consumption and X is income. It may be the case that consumption in 1995 depends on 1995 income and 1994 income. Consumption in 1996 depends upon 1995 income and 1994 income. Etc. This model is written as Yt = 1 + 2Xt + 3Xt-1 The variable Xt-1 is called a lagged variable. In this example, it is one period. If we desire, we could lag it two periods, e.g., consumption in 1995 depends upon income in 1993, three periods, etc. Note that if we lag a variable one period, we lose one observation and hence one degree of freedom. For example, if we have annual data on consumption and income for the period 1980 to 1996 we have 17 observations. However, we lose the observation for 1980, so we are left with 16 observations. We can also use the lagged value of the dependent variable as an explanatory variable. For example, Yt = 1 + 2Xt + 3Xt-1 + 4Yt-1 This can be view as a specific functional form. Mixed Functional Forms It is possible to mix functional forms. For example, suppose we have the model Y = 1 + 2lnH + 3lnL + 4A + 5A2 + 6G Where Y is patient visits, H is physician hours worked, L is aides employed, A is physician age, and G is gender. In this case, visits are a semi-log function of hours and aides, a quadratic function of age, and a linear function of gender. The marginal effect and elasticity for each of these variables is given by the formulas above. Consequences of Choosing the Wrong Functional Form The OLS estimator will be biased. Detection and Correction of Functional Form Specification Errors Two alternative methodologies used to choose a specific functional form for a model are the following. 1) Maintained hypothesis methodology. 2) Theory/testing methodology. Maintained Hypothesis Methodology This methodology uses theory and/or tractability to choose a specific functional form. Once a specific functional form is chosen, it is treated as a maintained hypothesis and not tested using the sample data. Choosing functional form based on tractability is not good practice. Relying on theory alone may not be good practice. This is because there are many situations when theory has nothing to say about the appropriate functional form. If the wrong functional form is chosen, then the parameter estimates will be biased and all tests of hypothesis, strictly speaking, will be incorrect. Theory/Testing Methodology This methodology involves the following steps. 1. Identify the set of specific functional forms that are consistent with theory. If a specific functional form is inconsistent with the theory being used to guide the specification of the statistical model, then it should not be considered. 2. Conduct statistical tests to determine which specific functional form should be chosen. 3. To carry-out step #3, use one of two approaches. 1) Testing-down approach. 2) Testing-up approach. Testing-Down Approach When using the testing-down approach, we begin with a general model and test-down to a more specific model. To test for nonlinear terms and interaction terms, we begin with a general model that includes one or more of these terms. For example, the general model might include nonlinear terms such as X2 and/or lnX, or interaction terms such as X*A. We then use a t-Test and/or an Ftest to test whether these terms belong in the model. General Functional Forms A more systematic approach is to begin with a general functional form. This general functional form has one or more specific functional forms as a special case. We use an F-test or a t-test to test whether a specific functional form is the appropriate functional form. Testing-up Approach When using the testing-up approach, we begin with a specific model and test-up to a more general model. To test for nonlinear terms and interaction terms, we begin with a specific model that does not include one or more of these terms. For example, the specific model might not include nonlinear terms such as X2 and/or lnX, or interaction terms such as X*A. We then use a Lagrange multiplier test to test whether these terms should be added to the model. Other Tests for Functional Form A number of other criteria and statistical tests are also used to test for functional form. Some of these are the following. 1) Adjusted R2. 2) Ramsey’s Reset Test. 3) Recursive Residual Test.