Triola Assignment D Section 8-2 – Basic Skills and Concepts 1) A newspaper article states that “based on a recent survey, it has bee proved that 50% of all truck drivers smoke.” What is wrong with that statement? The problem with the statement is the word “proven.” The use of sample statistics and hypothesis testing helps to provide an indication of the likelihood of an event occurring. However, these methods do not absolutely prove something. Check: OK 3) What is the difference between a test statistic and a critical value? The critical value is the boundary between values that would be used to reject the null hypothesis and those that would fail to reject the null hypothesis. The test statistic is the value that is the judged against the regions established by the critical value. By comparing the test statistic to the critical value, one is able to either reject of fail to reject the null hypothesis. Check: OK In addition, the test statistic is based on the sample data. The critical value is based on the significance level and the distribution being used. 5) Make a decision about the given claim. (Use the rare event rule to make a subjective estimate to determine whether the event is likely to occur.) Claim: A coin favors heads when tossed, and there are 11 heads in 20 tosses. In this case, the claim that the coin favors heads is not reasonable. One would expect that, by chance, about 10 heads and 10 tails would occur. The value of 11 is not significantly different enough to justify the claim of the coin favoring heads. Check: OK 13) Examine the given statement, then express the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis in symbolic form. Be sure to use the correct symbol for the indicated parameter. IQ scores of college professors have a standard deviation less than 15, which is the standard deviation for the general population. Null H0: = 15 Alternative H1: < 15 Check: OK 17) Find the critical z values. In each case, assume that the normal distribution applies. Situation: Two-tailed test; α = 0.05 The critical value for this cases would be based on a value of α = 0.025 since the critical region is split between two tails. Use 1 – 0.025 to find the probability = 0.975. The critical value is 1.96. Since it is a two-tailed situation, the critical z values are: ±1.96 Check: OK 19) Find the critical z values. In each case, assume that the normal distribution applies. Situation: Right-tailed test; α = 0.01 The critical value for this cases would be based on a value of α = 0.01 since the critical region is only in the right tail. Use 1 – 0.01 to find the probability = 0.99. The critical value is 2.33 Check: OK 27) Find the value of test statistic z. The claim is more than 75% of workers are satisfied with their job, and sample statistics include 580 employed adults, with 516 of them saying that they are satisfied with their job. We need to start by finding the proportion value for the sample: ^ p 516 580 0.8896 0.89 The other values for the formula will be: p = 0.75 q = 1 – p = 1 – 0.75 = 0.25 n = 580 The final step is to calculate z: ^ z p p pq n Check: OK 0.89 0.75 0.750.25 580 0.14 0.1875 580 0.14 0.000323275 0.14 7.786 7.79 0.017979 33) Use the given information to find the P-value. Information: With H1: p > 0.333, the test statistic is z = 1.50. The alternative hypothesis indicates that it is a right-tailed test. For a z-score of 1.50, the probability is 0.9332. Therefore, the P(p > 0.333) = 0.0668. Check: OK Section 8-3 – Basic Skills and Concepts 1) Assuming that the listed requirements of this section are satisfied, what distribution is used to test a claim about a population proportion? Why? The normal distribution as an approximation of a binomial distribution is being used. The requirements for a binomial distribution include: a fixed number of independent trials; two categories for outcomes; and the probability of success is the same in all trials. The normal distribution can be used to approximate because the binomial distribution as long as there are at least 5 trials that fall into each category. Check: OK 3) American Online conducts a survey in which Internet users are asked to respond to a question. Among the 96773 responses, there are 76885 responses of “yes.” Is it valid to use these sample results for testing the claim that the majority of the general population answers “yes”? The requirements that must be met are: a simple random sample, the conditions for the binomial distribution are met, and np 5 and nq 5. It is NOT valid to use these sample results for a hypothesis test because the sample is not a simple random sample. The sampling was based on voluntary-response sampling. Although the results may in fact reflect the general population, hypothesis testing based on these data does not reflect valid statistical procedures. Check: OK 13) Test the given claim. Identify the null hypothesis, alternative hypothesis, test statistic, Pvalue or critical value(s), conclusion about the null hypothesis, and final conclusion that addresses the original claim. Use the P-value method. Technology is dramatically changing the way we communicate. In 1997, a survey of 880 U.S. households showed that 149 of them use e- mail. Use those sample results to test the claim that more than 15% of U.S. households use email. Use a 0.05 significance level. Is the conclusion valid today? Why or why not? Null hypothesis H0: p = 0.15 Alternative hypothesis H1: p > 0.15 Test statistic ^ p 149 880 0.1693 0.17 p 0.15 q 1 p 1 0.15 0.85 n 880 ^ z p p 0.17 0.15 0.02 0.02 0.02 1.66156 1.66 0.0120368 0.150.85 pq 0.1275 0.000144886 n 880 880 P-value P-value = 1 – 0.9515 = 0.0485 Critical Value For an α = 0.05 in a right-tailed test, the critical value is: 1.645 Conclusion About Null Since 0.0485 < 0.5 (or since 1.66 is in the critical region), the conclusion is to reject the null hypothesis. Final Conclusion Based on the results of the hypothesis test, we can reject the null hypothesis and conclude that more than 15% of U.S. households use e-mail. Is the conclusion valid today? Although the conclusion is probably still valid today since the proliferation of technology is even greater. However, a new sample and a new hypothesis test may be yield an even greater percentage of households using email. Check: OK. Although my calculations were done correctly, rounding issues led my z-value to be a little high (as compared to the answer of 1.60). This, in turn, led my P-value to be off (the correct P-value was 0.0548). With this value, we would fail to reject the null hypothesis and this would change the conclusion to state the less than 15% of the population used email. 19) Test the given claim. Identify the null hypothesis, alternative hypothesis, test statistic, Pvalue or critical value(s), conclusion about the null hypothesis, and final conclusion that addresses the original claim. Use the P-value method. A recent Gallup poll of 976 randomly selected adults showed that 312 of them never drink. Use those survey results to test the claim that less than 1/3 of all adults never drink. Use a 0.05 significance level. Also, examine the following wording of the actual questions and determine whether it is likely to elicit honest responses: “How often, if ever, do you drink alcoholic beverages such as liquor, wine or beer— every day, a few times a week, about once a week, less than once a week, only on special occasions, or never?” Null hypothesis H0: p = 0.333 Alternative hypothesis H1: p < 0.333 Test statistic ^ p 312 976 0.31967 0.320 p 0.333 q 1 p 1 0.333 0.667 n 976 ^ z p p 0.320 0.333 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.86175 0.86 0.0150855 0.3330.667 pq 0.222111 0.00022757 n 976 976 P-value P-value = 0.1685 Critical Value For an α = 0.05 in a left-tailed test, the critical value is: –1.645 Conclusion About Null Since 0.1685 > 0.5 (or since –0.86 is not in the critical region), the conclusion is: fail to reject the null hypothesis. Final Conclusion Based on the results of the hypothesis test, we cannot reject the null hypothesis. Therefore, it is likely that more than 1/3 of the population never drinks. However, the null hypothesis does not state anything about what the actual proportion might be. Assess the survey question The initial part of the question is somewhat leading in the it asks “how often, if ever…” This might compel participants to answer a certain way. In addition, there is a big gap between the choices of “less than once a week” and “only on special occasions.” There might not be sufficient choices for a person to answer honestly. Check: OK. Although my calculations were done correctly, rounding issues led my z-value to be a little high (as compared to the answer of –0.91). This, in turn, led my P-value to be off (the correct P-value was 0.1814). However, we would reach the same conclusion about the null hypothesis. The main issue associated with the question, as suggested by the authors, is the sensitivity of the topic. This could influence how people choose to answer. Section 8-4 – Basic Skills and Concepts 1) Must you have a sample size of n > 30 in order to use the methods of hypothesis testing presented in this section? If a simple random sample has fewer than 31 values, what requirement must be satisfied to justify using the methods of this section? A sample size of n > 30 provides a relatively larger enough sample size to ensure that the results will be accurate. If the population is normally distributed, though, you do not have to a sample that is larger than 30. If a simple random sample has fewer than 31 values, then one must ensure that there are no outliers and that the sample is very close to being normally distributed. Check: OK 3) You want to test the claim that < 100 by constructing a confidence interval. If the hypothesis test is to be conducted with a 0.01 significance level, what confidence level should be used for the confidence interval? Because this is a one-tailed test, the confidence level should be 98%. Check: OK 13) Test the given claim. Identify the null hypothesis, alternative hypothesis, test statistic, Pvalue or critical value(s), conclusion about the null hypothesis, and final conclusion that addresses the original claim. Use the P-value method. Randomly selected statistics students of the author participated in an experiment to test their ability to determine when 1 min (or 60 seconds) has passed. Forty students yielded a sample mean of 58.3 seconds. Assuming that = 9.5 seconds, use a 0.05 significance level to test the claim that the population mean is equal to 60 seconds. Based on the result, does there appear to be an overall perception of 1 minute that is reasonably accurate? Null hypothesis H0: = 60 Alternative hypothesis H1: 60 Test statistic x 58.3 x 60 9.5 n 40 x x 58.3 60 1.7 1.7 1.7 z 1.13176 1.13 9.5 9.5 9.5 1.50208188 n 40 40 6.324555 P-value P-value = 0.1292 Since it is a two-tailed test, the value is doubled: 0.2584 Critical Value For an α = 0.05 in a two-tailed test, the critical value is: 1.96 Conclusion About Null Since 0.2584 > 0.5 (or since –1.13 is NOT in the critical region), the conclusion is to fail to reject the null hypothesis. Final Conclusion Based on the results of the hypothesis test, we fail to reject the null hypothesis and conclude that people’s perception of the length of one minute is near a mean of 60 seconds. Is the perception accurate? It does not appear that people do have an accurate perception of how long 1 minute actually is. However, the standard deviation indicates that individuals could be far off even though the population mean is near 60 seconds. Check: OK. I had incorrectly written down the formula which messed with my results. Once I corrected the formula, my calculations were fine. 15) Test the given claim. Identify the null hypothesis, alternative hypothesis, test statistic, Pvalue or critical value(s), conclusion about the null hypothesis, and final conclusion that addresses the original claim. Use the P-value method. When 40 people used the Atkins diet for one year, their mean weight change was –2.1 lbs. Assume that the standard deviation of all such weight changes is = 4.8 lbs and use a 0.05 significance level to test the claim that the man weight changes is less than 0. Based on these results, does the diet appear to be effective? Does the mean weight changer appear to be substantial enough to justify the special diet? Null hypothesis H0: = 0 Alternative hypothesis H1: < 0 Test statistic x 2.1 x 0 4.8 n 40 z x x 2.1 0 2.1 4.8 4.8 2.1 2.1 2.766992 2.77 4.8 0.7589466 6.324555 n 40 40 P-value P-value = 0.0028 Critical Value For an α = 0.05 in a left-tailed test, the critical value is: –1.645 Conclusion About Null Since 0.0028 < 0.5 (or since –2.77 is in the critical region), the conclusion is to reject the null hypothesis. Final Conclusion Based on the results of the hypothesis test, we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that people’s mean weight loss on the Atkin’s diet is less than zero. Is the diet effective? Based on the hypothesis test, the diet does appear to be effective. Is the diet justified? Having only a have mean weight loss of 2.1 pounds in a year does not appear to be substantial enough to justify the special diet. Check: OK. Section 8-5 – Basic Skills and Concepts 1) When using Table A-3 to find critical values, we must use the appropriate number of degrees of freedom. If a sample consists of five values, what is the appropriate number of degrees of freedom? If you don’t know any of the five sample values, but you know that their mean is exactly 20.0, how many values can you make up before the reaming values are determined by the restriction that the mean is 20.0? If the sample has five values, the df is 4. This means that you can freely assign the first four values, but the fifth will be set based on the mean that you are trying to get. Check: OK 5) Determine whether the hypothesis test involves a sampling distribution of means that is a normal distribution, Student t distribution, or nether. Claim: = 2.55. Sample data: n = 7, x 2.41 , s = 0.66. The sample data appear to come from a normally distributed population with unknown and . Since the population is normally distributed but you do not know the population standard deviation, you must use the Student t distribution. Check: OK 7) Determine whether the hypothesis test involves a sampling distribution of means that is a normal distribution, Student t distribution, or nether. Claim: = 0.0105. Sample data: n = 17, x 0.0134 , s = 0.0022. The sample data appear to come from a population with a distribution that is very far from normal, and is unknown. Since the population is not normally distributed and you do not know the population standard deviation, it is neither a normal nor a Student t distribution. Check: OK 13) Find the null hypothesis and alternative hypotheses, test statistic, P-value (or range of Pvalues), critical value(s), and state the final conclusion. Claim: The mean IQ score of statistic professors is greater than 120. Sample data: n = 12, x 132 , s = 12. The significance level is α = 0.05. Null hypothesis H0: = 120 Alternative hypothesis H1: >120 Test statistic x 132 x 120 s 12 n 12 df 11 x x 132 120 12 s 12 12 12 12 3.4641016 3.464 12 3.4641016 n 12 12 3.4641016 Critical Value For an α = 0.05 in a one-tailed test, the critical value is: 1.796 P-value The range of P-values < 0.005 Final Conclusion Based on the results of the hypothesis test, we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that professors have an IQ score greater than 120. Check: OK. t 15) Test the given claim by interpreting the accompanying display of hypothesis test results. Use a 0.05 significance level to the test the claim that statistics students have a mean IQ greater than 110. The sample data are summarized by the statistics n = 25, x 118.0 , and s = 10.7. See the accompanying Minitab display. The critical value for an α = 0.05 and df = 24 is 1.711. Since the test statistic is t = 3.74, we can reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the mean IQ scores are greater than 110. Check: OK Section 8-6 – Basic Skills and Concepts 1) What does it mean when we say that the chi-square test of this section is not robust against departures from normality? How does this affect the conditions that must be satisfied for the chisquare test of this section? Since the chi-square test is not robust, the test will NOT produce accurate results for distributions that vary too far from normal. Therefore, the restrictions of using a simple random sample from a normally distributed population must be adhered to. Check: OK 5) Calculate the test statistics, then use Table A-4 to find critical values(s) of χ2, then use Table A-4 to find limits containing the P-value, then determine whether there is sufficient evidence to support the given alternative hypothesis. H1 = 2.00, α = 0.05, n = 10, s = 3.00 Test statistic n 10 s 3.00 2.00 df 9 n 1s 2 10 1 3.00 2 9 9 81 20.25 4 4 2.00 Critical Values For an α = 0.05 in a two-tailed test, the critical values are: 2.700 and 19.023 P-value The range of P-values is between 0.01 and 0.025. Since it is a two-tailed test, you must double these values. Therefore, the range is: 0.02 < P-value < 0.05 Final Conclusion Due to the fact that the test statistic is in the critical region, we can reject the null hypothesis and conclude that we can support the alternative hypothesis. Check: OK. Everything was okay except that I needed to fix my values for the range of the P-values. 2 2 2 9) Test the given claim. Assume that a simple random sample is selected from a normally distributed population. Use the traditional method. A study was conducted of babies born to mothers who use cocaine during pregnancy, and the following sample data were obtained for weights at birth: n = 190, x 2700 , s = 645 grams. Use a 0.05 significance level to test the claim that the standard deviation of birth weights of infants born to mothers who use cocaine is different from the standard deviation of 696 grams for birth weights of infants born to mothers who do not use cocaine during pregnancy. (With df = 189, use these critical values: L2 152.8222 and R2 228.9638 ) Based on the result, does cocaine use by mothers appear to affect the variation of the weights of their babies? Null hypothesis H0: = 696 Alternative hypothesis H1: 696 Test statistic n 190 s 645 696 df 189 n 1s 2 190 1 645 2 189 416025 78628725 162.316531 162.3165 484416 484416 696 Critical Values For an α = 0.05 in a two-tailed test, the critical values are: L2 152.8222 and R2 228.9638 Final Conclusion Due to the fact that the test statistic is NOT in the critical region, we fail to reject the null hypothesis and conclude that cocaine use does not affect the variation of birth weights. Check: OK. 2 2 2 Unit 8 – Review Exercises 1) Based on the given conditions, identify the alternative hypothesis. Also, either identify the sampling distribution (normal, t, chi-square) of the test statistic, or state that the methods of this chapter should not be used. a) Claim: The mean annual income of full-time college students is below $10000. Sample data: For 750 randomly selected college students, the mean is $3662 and the standard deviation is $2996. The sample data suggest that the population has a distribution that is not normal. H1: < 10000 Sampling Distribution: Student t (even though not normal, sample is > 30) Check: OK b) Claim: The majority of college students have at least one credit card. Sample data: Of 500 randomly selected college students, 82% have at least one credit card. H1: p > .50 Sampling Distribution: Normal Check: OK c) Claim: The mean IQ of adults is equal to 100. Sample data: n = 150 and x 98.8 . It is reasonable to assume that = 15. H1: 100 Sampling Distribution: Normal Check: OK d) Claim: With manual assembly of telephone parts, the assembly times vary more than the times for automated assembly, which are know to have a mean of 27.6 seconds and a standard deviation of 1.8 seconds. Sample data: For 24 randomly selected times, the mean is 25.4 seconds, the standard deviation is 2.5 seconds, and the sample data suggest that the population has a distribution that is far from normal. H1: > 1.8 Sampling Distribution: Due to the fact that the distribution is not normal, we cannot use the techniques from this chapter. Check: OK e) Claim: Statistics professors have IQ scores that vary less than IQ scores from the adult population, which has standard deviation of 15. Sample data: For 24 randomly selected statistics professors, the standard deviation is 10.2, and the sample data suggest that the population has a distribution that is very close to a normal distribution. H1: < 15 Sampling Distribution: Chi-Square Check: OK 3) Glamour magazine sponsored a survey of 2500 prospective brides and found that 60% of them spent less that $750 of their wedding gown. Use a 0.01 significance level to test the claim that less than 62% of brides spend less than $750 of their wedding gown. How are the results affected if it is learned the responses were obtained from magazine readers who decided to responded to the survey through an Internet web site? Null hypothesis H0: p = 0.62 Alternative hypothesis H1: p < 0.62 Test statistic ^ p 0.60 p 0.62 q 1 p 1 0.62 0.38 n 2500 ^ z p p pq n 0.60 0.62 0.620.38 0.02 0.2356 2500 2500 0.02 0.00009424 0.02 2.0602 2.06 0.0097077288 P-value P-value = 0.0197 Critical Value For an α = 0.01 in a left-tailed test, the critical value is: –2.33 Conclusion About Null Since 0.0197 > 0.01 (or since –2.06 is NOT in the critical region), the conclusion is to fail to reject the null hypothesis. Final Conclusion Based on the results of the hypothesis test, we fail to reject the null hypothesis and cannot conclude less than 62% of women spend less than $750 on their wedding gowns. What would happen if data was obtained from Internet poll? If the data were gathered via a self-response poll, the integrity of the results would be in question. In addition, this type of sample is not simple random sampling, therefore the techniques used in this chapter would not legitimately apply. Check: OK. 7) For a simple random sample of adults, IQ scores are normally distributed with a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 15. A simple random sample of 13 statistics professors yields a standard deviation of s = 7.2. A psychologist is quite sure that statistics professors have IQ scores that have a mean greater than 100. He doesn’t understand the concept of standard deviation very well and does not realize that the standard deviation should be lower than 15. Instead, he claims that statistics professors have IQ scores with a standard deviation equal to 15, the same standard deviation for the general population. Assume that IQ scores of statistics professors are normally distributed and use a 0.05 significance level to test the claim that = 15. Based on the result, what do you conclude about the standard deviation of IQ scores for statistics professors? Null hypothesis H0: = 15 Alternative hypothesis H1: 15 Test statistic n 13 s 7.2 15 df 18 n 1s 2 13 1 7.2 2 12 51.84 622.08 2.7648 2.7648 225 225 15 Critical Values For an α = 0.05 in a two-tailed test, the critical values are: L2 4.404 and R2 23.337 Final Conclusion Due to the fact that the test statistic is in the critical region (2.7648 < 4.404), we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the IQ scores of statistics professors varies less than the general population. Check: OK. 2 2 2 Unit 8 – Cumulative Review Exercises 1) Listed below are the heights (in inches) of the Presidents who served in the 20th century. Assume that these values are sample data from some larger population: 67 70 72 71 72 70 71 74 69 70.5 72 75 71.5 69.5 73 74 74.5 a) Mean: b) Median: c) SD: 67 70 72 ... 73 74 74.5 1216 71.529411 71.53 Check: OK 17 17 67 69 69.5 70 70 70.5 71 71 71.5 72 72 72 73 74 74 74.5 75 The median is: 71.5 Check: OK x 67 69 69.5 ... 74 74.5 75 87053 x (67 69 69.5 ... 74 74.5 75) 1216 1478656 n x x 17(87053) 1478656 1479901 1478656 s 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 nn 1 1717 1 d) Variance: 4.57720588235 2.13944 2.14 Check: OK s 2 2.13944 2 4.57720588235 4.58 Check: OK e) Range: 75 67 8 Check: OK 1716 1245 272 f) Assuming that the values are sample data, construct a 95% confidence interval estimate of the population mean. 1 0.95 0.05 t 2.120 s 2.14 n 17 s 2.14 2.14 E t / 2 2.120 2.120 2.120 0.51889 1.1000 1.10 4.1231056 n 17 x 71.53 x E x E 71.53 1.10 71.53 1.10 70.43 72.63 Check: OK g) The mean height of men is 69.0 inches. Use a 0.05 significance level to test the claim that this sample comes from a population with a mean greater than 69.0 inches. Do Presidents appear to be taller than the typical man? Null hypothesis H0: = 69.0 Alternative hypothesis H1: > 69.0 Test statistic x 71.53 x 69.0 s 2.14 n 17 df 16 t x x 71.53 69.0 2.53 s 2.14 2.14 n 17 17 2.53 2.53 4.8745127 4.875 2.14 0.519026 4.1231056 Critical Value For an α = 0.05 in a one-tailed test with df = 16, the critical value is: 1.746 Final Conclusion Based on the results of the hypothesis test, we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that Presidents come from a population of taller men. Is does appear that Presidents tend to be taller than the typical man. Check: OK. 3) The math SAT scores for women are normally distributed with a mean of 496 and standard deviation of 108. a) If a woman who takes the math portion of the SAT is randomly selected, find the probability that her score is above 500. x 500 496 4 0.037 0.04 Convert 500 to a z-score: z 108 108 Find the probability of a score greater than 500: 1 – 0.5160 = 0.484. Check: OK b) If five math SAT scores are randomly selected from the population of women who take the test, find the probability that all five of the scores are above 500. x 500 496 4 0.037 0.04 Convert 500 to a z-score: z 108 108 Find the probability of all five: 0.484·0.484·0.484·0.484·0.484 = 0.0265599 = 0.027. Check: OK c) If five women who take the math portion of the SAT are randomly selected, find the probability that their mean is above 500. x x 500 496 4 4 0.0828 0.08 Convert 500 to a z-score: z 108 108 48.299 2.236 n 5 Find the probability of a score greater than 500: 1 – 0.5319 = 0.4681. Check: OK d) Find P90, the score separating the bottom 90% from the top 10%. The z-score corresponding to 0.90 is: 1.28 Convert 1.28 to raw score: x z 1.28 108 496 138.24 496 634.24 634 Check: OK Section 9-2 – Basic Skills and Concepts 1) What is the pooled sample proportion and what is the symbol that represents it? Is it used for hypothesis tests and confidence intervals? The symbol for the pooled sample proportion is: p . The pooled sample proportion is the combination of the number of “successes” (in proportion, decimal, or percentage form) from both samples. It is calculated by dividing the sum of the successes divided by the sum of the sample sizes. It is used to calculate the test statistic for hypothesis testing, but it is not used for constructing confidence intervals. Check: OK 5) Find the number of successes x suggested by the given statement. From a New York Times article: Among 3250 pedestrian walk buttons in New York City, 23% of the work. Multiply the percent by the number of trials: .23 3250 747.5 748 Check: OK 9) Assume that you plan to use a significance level of α = 0.05 to test the claim that p1 = p2. Use the given sample sizes and numbers of successes to find (a) the pooled estimate p , (b) the z test statistic, (c) the critical z values, and (d) the P-value. Treatment Group n1 = 500 x1 = 100 a) p Placebo Group n2 = 400 x2 = 50 x1 x2 100 50 150 0.16 0.167 n1 n2 500 400 900 b) p 0.167 q 1 p 1 0.167 0.833 ^ ^ x x 50 100 0.125 p1 1 0.2 p2 2 n2 400 n1 500 ^ ^ p1 p 2 p1 p 2 z pq pq n1 n2 0.075 0.2 0.125 0 0.167 0.833 0.167 0.833 500 400 0.075 0.13911 0.13911 500 400 0.075 2.9976 3.00 0.00027822 0.00034777 0.0006259995 0.02501998 c) The critical values for α = 0.05 in a two-tailed test are: 1.96 d) The P-value is: 1 – 0.9987 = 0.0013. This needs to be doubled for a two-tailed test: 0.0026. Check: OK 0.075 Section 9-3 – Basic Skills and Concepts 1) See the age data used in the hypothesis testing and confidence interval examples of this section. If we include one more age of 80 years for an unsuccessful applicant, are the requirements given in Part 1 satisfied? Why or why not? If an age of 80 is included in the list for unsuccessful applicants, the requirements for the test will not be met. Since the populations for each sample are less than 30, the samples must be near normal and have no outliers. 80 is an outlier which will affect the calculations and yield less than reliable results. Check: OK 5) Determine whether the samples are independent or consist of matched pairs: The effectiveness of Prilosec for treating heartburn is tested by measuring gastric acid secretion in a group of patients treated with Prilosec and another group of patients given a placebo. Independent. Check: OK 9) Assume that the two samples are independent simple random samples selected from normally distributed populations. Do not assume that the population standard deviations are equal. In a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of children, echinacea was tested as a treatment for upper respiratory infections in children. “Days of fever” was on criterion used to measure effects. Among 337 children treated with Echinacea, the mean number of days with fever was 0.81, with a standard deviation of 1.50 days. Among 370 children given a placebo, the mean number of days with fever was 0.64 with standard deviation of 1.16 days. Use a 0.05 significance level to test the claim that echinacea affects the number of days with fever. Based on these results, does echinacea appear to be effective? Null hypothesis H0: 1 = 2 Alternative hypothesis H1: 1 2 Test statistic x x2 1 2 0.81 0.64 0 0.17 0.17 t 1 2.25 1.3456 0.006676 0.003636 s12 s 22 1.50 2 1.16 2 337 370 337 370 n1 n2 0.17 0.17 1.673978 1.674 0.101554490 0.010313314621 Critical Value df 337 1 336 or df 370 1 369 Use 336 as the df since it is smaller For an α = 0.05 in a two-tailed test, the critical value is: 1.968 Conclusion About Null Since 1.67 is NOT in the critical region, the conclusion is to fail to reject the null hypothesis. Final Conclusion Since we failed to reject the null hypothesis, is appears that echinacea is not effective in treating the number of “days of fever.” Check: OK. 13) Assume that the two samples are independent simple random samples selected from normally distributed populations. Do not assume that the population standard deviations are equal. Many studies have been conducted to test the effects of marijuana use on mental abilities. IN one such study, groups of light and heavy users of marijuana in college were tested for memory recall, with the results given below. Use a 0.01 significance level to test the lcaim that the population of heavy marijuana users has a lower mean than the light users? Should marijuana use be of concern to college students? 1) Light users: 2) Heavy users: n = 64, x 53.3 , s = 3.6 n = 65, x 51.3 , s = 4.5 Null hypothesis H0: 1 = 2 Alternative hypothesis H1: 1 > 2 Test statistic x x2 1 2 53.3 51.3 0 2.00 t 1 2 2 2 2 12.96 20.25 s1 s 2 3.6 4.5 64 65 64 65 n1 n2 2.00 2.00 0.2025 0.3115384 2.00 2.78953739 2.790 0.716964756 0.51403846 Critical Value df 64 1 63 or df 65 1 64 Use 64 as the df since it is smaller For an α = 0.01 in a right-tailed test, the critical value is: 2.390 Conclusion About Null Since 2.790 is in the critical region, the conclusion is to reject the null hypothesis. Final Conclusion Since we rejected the null hypothesis, it appears that marijuana does have a negative effective on memory, particularly for heavy users. Check: OK. 17) Assume that the two samples are independent simple random samples selected from normally distributed populations. Do not assume that the population standard deviations are equal. People send huge sums of money for the purchase of magnets used to treat a wide variety of pains. Researchers conducted a study to determine whether magnets are effective in treating back pain. Pain was measured using the visual analog scale, and the results given below are among the results obtained in the study. Use a 0.05 significance level to test the claim that those treated with magnets have a greater reduction in pain than those given a sham treatment. Does it appear that magnets are effective in treating back pain? Is it valid to argue that magnets might appear to be effective if the sample sizes are larger? 1) Magnet Treatment: 2) Sham Treatment: n = 20, x 0.49 , s = 0.96 n = 20, x 0.44 , s = 1.4 Null hypothesis H0: 1 = 2 Alternative hypothesis H1: 1 > 2 Test statistic x x2 1 2 0.49 0.44 0 t 1 s12 s 22 0.96 2 1.40 2 20 20 n1 n2 0.9216 1.96 20 20 0.05 0.04608 0.098 0.05 0.1317249 0.132 0.14408 0.3795787 Critical Value df 20 1 19 For an α = 0.05 in a two-tailed test, the critical value is: 1.729 Conclusion About Null Since 0.132 is NOT in the critical region, the conclusion is to fail to reject the null hypothesis. 0.05 0.05 Final Conclusion Since we failed to reject the null hypothesis, is appears that magnets are not effective in treating back pain. If a larger sample size was used, the results may be different. However, there is no guarantee. Check: OK. Section 9-4 – Basic Skills and Concepts 1) Sample data consist of heights and weights of 12 randomly selected bears. When analyzing the relationship between height and weight, do the methods of this section apply? Why or why not? Although the samples do consist of matched pairs (i.e. both measurements coming from the same bear), we are not comparing the same type of data. Therefore, the methods of this section do not really work. This type of situation would involve correlating two different variables rather than comparing means from different samples. Check: OK 3) What do the symbols d and sd denote? d is the mean of the differences of the matched pairs from each sample. sd is the standard deviation of these differences. Check: OK 15) The article “An SAT Coaching Program That Works,” by Kaplan included a graph depicting SAT scores for 50 subjects in a control group. Nine of the 50 points were randomly selected, with each point representing the score on the SAT test taken the first time and the score on the SAT test taken a second time, with no preparatory course taken between the two tests. The graph was used to identify the scores below. Test the claim that the differences have a mean of 0. What do the results suggest? Student First Second A 480 460 B 510 500 C 530 530 D 540 520 E 550 580 F 560 580 G 600 560 H 620 640 I 660 690 C 530 530 0 D 540 520 20 E 550 580 –30 F 560 580 –20 G 600 560 40 H 620 640 –20 I 660 690 –30 Calculate values for d and sd Student First Second Difference d A 480 460 20 B 510 500 10 20 10 0 20 30 20 40 20 30 10 1.111111 1.11 9 9 x 20 10 0 ... 40 (20) (30) 5100 x (20 10 0 ... 40 20 30) 10 100 n x x 9(5100) 100 45900 100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 sd 2 nn 1 2 2 99 1 636.1111111 25.221243 25.221 98 45800 72 Null hypothesis H0: d = 0 Alternative hypothesis H1: d 0 Test statistic d d 1.111 0 1.111 1.111 1.111 t 0.1321637 0.132 sd 25.221 25.221 25.221 8.40708108 3 9 9 n Critical Value df 9 1 8 For an α = 0.05 in a two-tailed test, the critical value is: 2.306 Conclusion About Null Since –0.132 is NOT in the critical region, the conclusion is to fail to reject the null hypothesis. Final Conclusion Based on the results of the hypothesis test, we fail to reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the mean of the differences between the first and second SAT scores is zero. What do the results suggest? This suggest that when taking the SAT a second time without any special preparation, the second score is not really influenced by what was learned from taking it the first time. In other words, the first attempt on the test does not appear to influence performance on the second attempt. Check: OK. I did have a minor calculation error in figuring the standard deviation, otherwise things were fine. Section 9-5 – Basic Skills and Concepts 1) What is the major weakness of the F test described in this section? Name two alternatives that do a better job of overcoming that weakness. The major weakness is that the two populations must be distributed normally. Deviations from normality have a significant impact on the results of the test. Two alternatives that are more robust (i.e. they handle departures from the normality better) are the count five method and the modified Levene’s test. Check: OK 3) In the context of this section, what is the F-distribution? The F-distribution is based on the test-statistic for the F-test. If the samples are continually selected from a normally distribution population and the variances are used to calculate the test statistic for the F-test, the shape of the results will tend toward the F-distribution. Check: OK 14) Students at the author’s college randomly selected 217 student cars and foudnt hat they had ages with a mean of 7.89 years and a standard deviation of 3.67 years. They also randomly selected 152 faculty cars and found that they had ages with a mean of 5.99 years and a standard deviation of 3.65 years. Is there sufficient evidence to support the claim that the ages of faculty cars vary less than the ages of student cars? The values for the test are: Students have larger variance: s12 3.67 2 13.4689 Faculty has smaller variance: s 22 3.65 2 13.3225 Null hypothesis H0: 12 = 22 Alternative hypothesis H1: 12 22 Test statistic s 2 13.4689 F 12 1.0109889 1.0110 s 2 13.3225 Critical Value Numerator: df 217 1 216 Denominator: df 152 1 151 For an α = 0.05 in a two-tailed test (0.025 in right tail), the critical value is between: 1.0000 and 1.4327 Conclusion About Null Since 1.0110 is in the critical region, the conclusion is to reject the null hypothesis. Final Conclusion Although the test results yield a conclusion to reject the null hypothesis, this conclusion must be taken with a grain of salt. First, because the dfs used exceeded the highest values in the available table, the range for the critical value is wide. Second, it is unlikely that the two variances are exactly the same; however, examination of the test statistic indicates that the variances are pretty close. A different conclusion might be reached if software was used to determine the critical value for the test. Therefore, there is not absolute proof that the variance of the car ages for faculty is less than the cars ages for the students. Check: OK. 17) Many students have had the unpleasant experience of panicking on a test because the first question was exceptionally difficult. The arrangement of test items was studied for its effect on anxiety. Sample values consisting of measure of “debilitating test anxiety” are obtained for a group of subjects with test questions arranged from easy to difficult, and another group with test questions arranged from difficult to easy. Test the claim that the two samples come from populations with the same variance. Here are the summary statistics: 1) Easy-to-Difficult: n = 25, x 27.115 , s2 = 47.020 2) Difficult-to-Easy: n = 16, x 31.728 , s2 = 18.150 Null hypothesis H0: 12 = 22 Alternative hypothesis H1: 12 22 Test statistic s 2 47.020 F 12 2.5906336 2.5906 s 2 18.150 Critical Value Numerator: df 25 1 24 Denominator: df 16 1 15 For an α = 0.05 in a two-tailed test (0.025 in right tail), the critical value is 2.7006 Conclusion About Null Since 2.5906 is NOT in the critical region, the conclusion is to fail to reject the null hypothesis. Final Conclusion There is not enough evidence to reject the claim that the samples comes from populations with different variances. Check: OK. Unit 9 – Review Exercises 1) Racial profiling is the controversial practice of targeting someone for suspicion of criminal behavior on the basis of race, national origin, or ethnicity. The table below includes data from randomly selected drivers stopped by police in a recent year: Drivers Stopped by Police Total # of Observed Drivers Race and Ethnicity Black and Non-Hispanic White and Non-Hispanic 24 147 200 1400 a) Use a 0.05 significance level to test the claim that the proportion of blacks stopped by police is significantly greater than the proportion of whites. Null hypothesis H0: p1 = p2 Alternative hypothesis H1: p1 > p2 Test statistic x x2 24 147 171 p 1 0.106875 0.1069 n1 n2 200 1400 1600 p 0.1069 q 1 p 1 0.1069 0.8931 ^ ^ x x 24 147 p1 1 0.12 p2 2 0.105 n1 200 n2 1400 ^ ^ p1 p 2 p1 p 2 z pq pq n1 n2 0.015 0.00047736 0.000068194 0.12 0.105 0 0.1069 0.8931 0.1069 0.8931 200 1400 0.015 0.0005455565 0.015 0.09547239 0.09547239 200 1400 0.015 0.6422016 0.642 0.02335715 Critical Value For an α = 0.05 in a right-tailed test, the critical value is: 1.645 Conclusion About Null Since 0.642 is NOT in the critical region, the conclusion is to fail to reject the null hypothesis. Final Conclusion Based on the results of the hypothesis test, we cannot support the claim that blacks are stopped more often than whites. Check: OK. b) Construct a confidence interval that could be used to test the claim in part (a). Be sure to use the correct level of significance. What do you conclude based on the confidence interval? ^ ^ x x 24 147 p1 1 0.12 p2 2 0.105 n1 200 n2 1400 For a significance level of 0.05 and a right-tailed test, use a confidence level of 90%. This yields a zα/2 value of 1.645. ^ E z / 2 ^ ^ ^ p1 q1 p 2 q 2 0.12 0.88 0.105 0.895 0.1056 0.093975 1.645 1.645 n1 n2 200 1400 200 1400 1.645 0.000528 0.000067125 1.645 0.000595125 1.645 0.024395 0.04013 0.0401 Construct the confidence interval: ^ ^ ^ ^ p1 p 2 E p1 p 2 p1 p 2 E 0.015 0.040 p1 p 2 0.015 0.040 0.025 p1 p 2 0.055 Due to the fact that zero in the confidence interval, we can conclude that there is no difference between the proportions of black and whites that are stopped. Check: OK 3) Listed below are Flesch Reading Ease scores taken from randomly selected pages in Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone and War and Peace. Use a 0.05 significance level to test the claim that Harry Potter is easier to read than War and Peace. Is the result expected? Potter: War Peace: 85.3 84.3 79.5 82.5 80.2 84.6 79.2 70.9 78.6 86.2 74.0 83.7 69.4 64.2 71.4 71.6 68.5 51.9 72.2 74.4 52.8 58.4 65.4 73.6 85.3 84.3 ... 74.0 83.7 969 80.75 12 12 x 2 85.32 84.32 ... 74.0 2 83.7 2 78487.82 x1 x (85.3 84.3 ... 74.0 83.7) 969 938961 n x x 12(78487.82) 938961 941853.84 938961 s 2 2 2 2 nn 1 1 2 1212 1 1211 2892.84 132 21.91545454545 4.6813945 4.681 69.4 64.2 ... 65.4 73.6 793.8 66.15 12 12 x 2 69.4 2 64.2 2 ... 65.4 2 73.6 2 53189.1 x2 x (69.4 64.2 ... 65.4 73.6) 793.8 630118.44 n x x 12(53189.1) 630118.44 638269.2 630118.44 s 2 2 2 2 nn 1 2 2 1212 1 61.74818181818 7.85800113376 7.858 Null hypothesis H0: 1 = 2 Alternative hypothesis H1: 1 > 2 Test statistic 1211 8150.76 132 t x1 x2 1 2 80.75 66.15 0 2 1 2 2 2 s s n1 n2 14.6 6.9716604 4.681 7.858 12 12 2 14.6 21.911761 61.748164 12 12 14.6 1.8259 5.1456 14.6 5.5294857522 5.529 2.640390 Critical Value df 12 1 11 For an α = 0.05 in a right-tailed test, the critical value is: 1.796 Conclusion About Null Since 5.529 is in the critical region, the conclusion is to reject the null hypothesis. Final Conclusion Since we rejected the null hypothesis, it appears that Harry Potter has an easier reading level that War and Peace. This would be expected since Harry Potter is intended for younger readers and War and Peace is intended for adult readers. Check: OK. 5) An article published in USA Today stated that “in a study of 200 colorectal surgery patients, 104 were kept warm with blankets and intravenous fluids; 96 were kept cool. The results show: Only 6 of those warmed developed wound infections versus 18 who were kept cool.” a) Use a 0.05 significance level to test the claim of the article’s headline: “Warmer surgical patients recover better.” If these results are verified, should surgical patients be routinely warmed? Null hypothesis H0: p1 = p2 Alternative hypothesis H1: p1 > p2 Test statistic x x2 98 78 176 p 1 0.88 n1 n2 104 96 200 p 0.88 q 1 p 1 0.88 0.12 ^ x 98 p1 1 0.9423 n1 104 ^ ^ p1 p 2 p1 p 2 z pq pq n1 n2 0.12980769 0.001015 .0011 ^ p2 x 2 78 0.8125 n2 96 0.9423 0.8125 0 0.88 0.12 0.88 0.12 104 96 0.12980769 0.002115384615 0.12980769 0.1056 0.1056 104 96 0.12980769 2.822316 2.82 0.045993310 Critical Value For an α = 0.05 in a right-tailed test, the critical value is: 1.645 Conclusion About Null Since 2.822 is in the critical region, the conclusion is to reject the null hypothesis. Final Conclusion Based on the results of the hypothesis test, we can support the claim that warmer patients recover better. Although the evidence does lead to the potential of keeping patients warm, the test should be repeated for other surgeries and for larger samples before it is assumed that the technique is effective in all surgeries. Check: OK. b) If a confidence interval is to be used for testing the claim in part (a), what confidence level should be used? For a significance level of 0.05 and a right-tailed test, use a confidence level of 90%. This yields a zα/2 value of 1.645.Check: OK c) Using the confidence level from part (b), construct a confidence interval estimate of the difference between the two population proportions. ^ ^ x x 98 78 p1 1 0.9423 p2 2 0.8125 n1 104 n2 96 For a significance level of 0.05 and a right-tailed test, use a confidence level of 90%. This yields a zα/2 value of 1.645. ^ E z / 2 ^ ^ ^ p1 q1 p 2 q 2 0.9423 0.0766 0.8125 0.1875 0.07218 0.15234 1.645 1.645 n1 n2 104 96 104 96 1.645 0.000694 0.0015869 1.645 0.002280954 1.645 0.04775933 0.078564 0.07856 Construct the confidence interval: ^ ^ ^ ^ p1 p 2 E p1 p 2 p1 p 2 E 0.1298 0.07856 p1 p 2 0.1298 0.07856 0.05124 p1 p 2 0.20836 Due to the fact that zero is not in the confidence interval, we can conclude that there is a difference between the proportions and we fail to reject the null hypothesis. Check: OK d) In general, if a confidence interval estimate of the difference between two population proportions is used to test some claim about the proportions, will the conclusion based on the confidence interval always be the same as the conclusion from a standard hypothesis test? When dealing with population proportions, the conclusion based on a traditional hypothesis test (or P-value) will not necessarily be the same as the conclusion based on confidence intervals. Therefore, a hypothesis test should be done to address claims dealing with population proportions. Unit 9 – Cumulative Review Exercises 1) A section of Highway 405 in L.A. has a speed limit of 65 mph, and recorded speeds are listed below for randomly selected cars traveling on northbound and southbound lanes. NORTH: SOUTH: 68 68 72 73 65 74 73 72 68 65 65 73 66 71 68 74 66 71 65 73 59 75 70 56 66 75 68 75 62 72 60 73 61 75 58 74 60 73 58 75 a) Using the speeds for the northbound lanes, find the mean, median, standard deviation, variance, and range. 68 68 72 ... 71 65 73 1390 69.5 Mean: 20 20 Median: 65 65 65 65 66 66 68 68 68 68 71 71 72 72 73 73 73 73 74 74 68 71 139 69.5 The median is: 2 2 SD: x 2 652 652 652 ... 732 742 742 96826 x 2 s (65 65 65 ... 73 74 74) 2 1390 1932100 2 n x 2 x 2 nn 1 20(96826) 1932100 1936520 1932100 2020 1 2019 4420 380 11.6315789 3.41051007144 3.411 Variance: s 2 3.41051007144 2 11.6315789474 11.632 Range: 74 65 9 Check: OK b) Using all of the speed combined, test the claim that the mean is greater than the posted speed limit of 65 mph. Calculate the mean and sample standard deviation 68 68 72 ... 73 58 75 2735 x 68.375 40 40 x 2 682 682 722 ... 732 582 752 188259 x 2 (68 68 72 ... 73 58 75) 2 2735 7480225 2 n x 2 x s 2 nn 1 40(188259) 7480225 7530360 7480225 50135 4040 1 4039 1560 32.1378205128 5.66902288872 5.669 Null hypothesis H0: = 65 Alternative hypothesis H1: > 65 Test statistic x 68.375 x 65 s 5.669 n 40 df 39 t x x 68.375 65 3.375 s 5.669 5.669 n 40 40 3.375 3.375 3.765265 3.765 5.669 0.89635122 6.324555 Critical Value For an α = 0.05 in a one-tailed test, the critical value is: 1.684 Conclusion About Null Since 3.765 is in the critical region, we can conclude to reject the null hypothesis. Final Conclusion Based on the results of the hypothesis test, we reject the null hypothesis and mean speed of drivers is higher than the posted speed limit. Check: OK. c) Do the northbound speeds appear to come from a normally distributed population? Explain. Sketch a histogram of the data to visually check for normality: Histogram of Speed 7 6 Frequency 5 4 3 2 1 0 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 Speed (mph) Based on the histogram, the values for the northbound lane do not appear to be normal. It has some characteristics, but it is skewed in one direction. Check: OK. This is considered to be not too far from normal. Since there are no outliers, the t test will be valid. d) Assuming that the speeds are from normally distributed populations, test the claim that the mean speed on the northbound lanes is equal to the mean speed on the southbound lanes. Based on the results from part (c), does it appear that this hypothesis test is likely to be valid? Calculate the mean and sample standard deviation 68 68 72 ... 71 65 73 1390 x1 69.5 20 20 x 65 65 65 ... 73 74 74 96826 x (65 65 65 ... 73 74 74) 1390 1932100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 n x 2 x s1 2 nn 1 20(96826) 1932100 1936520 1932100 2020 1 2019 4420 380 11.6315789 3.41051007144 3.411 59 75 70 ... 73 58 75 1345 x2 67.25 20 20 x 2 592 752 702 ... 732 582 752 91433 x 2 s1 (68 68 72 ... 73 58 75) 2 1345 1809025 2 n x 2 x 2 nn 1 20(91433) 1809025 1828660 1809025 19635 2020 1 2019 380 51.6710526316 7.18825796919 7.188 Null hypothesis H0: 1 = 2 Alternative hypothesis H1: 1 2 Test statistic x x2 1 2 69.5 67.25 0 2.25 t 1 11.6349 51.6673 s12 s 22 3.4112 7.188 2 20 20 20 20 n1 n2 2.25 3.16529868158 2.25 0.5817 2.5833 2.25 1.2646640396 1.265 1.77912862 Critical Value df 20 1 19 For an α = 0.05 in a right-tailed test, the critical value is: 1.729 Conclusion About Null Since 1.265 is NOT in the critical region, the conclusion is to fail to reject the null hypothesis. Final Conclusion Since we failed to reject the null hypothesis, it appears that there is not a significance difference between the mean speeds in the north and southbound lanes. Based on the results of the part (c), this is probably a valid hypothesis test. Check: OK. 3) In an article from the Associated Press, it was reported that researchers “randomly selected 100 New York motorists who had been in an accident and 100 who had not. Of those in accidents, 13.7 percent owned a cellular phone, while just 10.6 percent of accident-free drivers had a phone in the car.” Analyze these results. If the sample sizes are truly 100 people, then the percentages could not have been decimal values. At some point, an error occurred. Check: OK. I looked at the answer first to try and figure out what the author wanted analyzed. I understood the question after I looked at the answer.