BUDAPEST BUSINESS SCHOOL COLLEGE OF FINANCE AND ACCOUNTANCY- FINANCE DEPARTMENT 1149 BUDAPEST, BUZOGÁNY ST. 10-12. / FAX: +36-1-4696697 SYLLABUS Statistics II. 2009/2010 – Fall term Course title: Statistics I. Contact hours: 1+2 Credits: 3 Prerequisites: Passed exam on Statistics I. and Mathematics Course unit leader: Oroszné Dr. Csesznák Anita Office number: B103 e-mail address: csesznak.anita@pszfb.bgf.hu Aims and objectives In this course you will: distinguish between the use of descriptive and inferential statistics, use the results drawn from samples to estimate population parameters, review confidence intervals and hypothesis testing, explain the concept of using a confidence interval to estimate a population parameter, identify when hypothesis testing may be appropriate and explain the methodology as it relates to the scenario. Course description This course introduces to two important concepts used in inferential statistics: confidence intervals for estimating population parameters and hypothesis testing for proving inferences about population parameters. In the second part of semester we deal with correlation, regression and time series analysis. (The four components of time series; measure seasonal variation using the ratio-to-moving average method.) Course schedule Consultations (semester weeks) Topic 1st – 2nd Sampling (Describe the techniques and problems associated with sampling.) 3rd –4th Estimation Hypothesis testing (Estimating a population mean, large-sample confidence intervals for a population mean, determining necessary sample size, confidence intervals for a normal population mean, large-sample confidence intervals for a population proportion. An introduction to hypothesis testing; terms, notation, terminology; type 1 and type 2 errors and possible conclusions; largesample hypothesis tests; P-values; hypothesis tests for a normal population mean; large-sample hypothesis tests for a population proportion. ) 1 5th-6th 7th-8th 9th -10th 11th -12th Hypothesis testing II. (State and test hypotheses about a population mean or the comparison of two population means. Use the t-test to test statistical significance for estimation of a population mean or for the comparison to means between two populations for small sample sizes. State and test hypotheses about a population variance. Large-sample inferences for two population means using independent samples; inferences for the means of two normal populations using independent samples; inferences for two population means using paired samples; large-sample inferences for two population proportions using independent samples. The chisquare distribution, goodness-of-fit test, independence test, inferences for a population standard deviation. ) Correlation, regression (Compute the regression line derived from the least squares method. Evaluate and use methods of regression prediction and the correlation coefficient for the comparison of two measures. Linear equations with one independent variable, the regression equation, the coefficient of determination, linear correlation, multiple regression.) Non-linear regression Multiple regression (The regression model, inferences for the slope of the population regression line, estimation and prediction, inferences in correlation, multiple regression. The F-distribution, one-way analysis of variance.) Time series analysis Produce a time series graph Course policies Students are invited for compulsory attendance on the lectures. Assignments Written exam: 1 written exam at the end of the semester. Assessment and grading Grading: the points (percentages) corresponding to marks from 1-5. 0-50% Fail (1) 51-62% Pass (2) 63-75% Satisfactory (3) 76-87% Good (4) 88-100% Excellent (5) Compulsory readings Amir D. Aczel: Complete Business Statistics, Mc Grow – Hill Irvin Boston. 2002. Recommended readings Anderson, D. R. Sweeney, D. I. – Williams T. A.: Statistics for business and economics (West Publishing Company, Minneapolis / St. Poul) New York, 2004. (9th edition) G.K. Bhattacharyya- R.A. Johnson: Statistical Concepts and Methods (Wiley, 1977). P. Newbold: Statistics for business and Economics (Prentice Hall, 1991). 2