International Investing
Prof. Ian Giddy
New York University
International Capital Budgeting
Strategic FDI decision vs. project appraisal
NPV, IRR, NTV, APV
Analyzing the cash flows:
Tax and repatriation
Subsidies, including low-cost finance
Inflation and exchange rate changes
Whose cash flow?
Blocked funds
Special risks & risk analysis in ICB
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 2
Foreign Direct Investment
Why FDI? The theories
Sources of competitive advantage
Tactical choices
export vs. foreign production
licensing vs. FDI
Ownership policy
wholly-owned vs jv
Modes of entry
de novo vs. Acquisition
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 3
Nature of FDI
Q: Why?
A: Ownership-specific advantages of the firm
Q: How?
A: Internationalization of markets implies FDI
Q: Where?
A: Location-specific advantages of host country
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 4
Conditions for FDI
1. Expected returns exceed the next best alternative (relative return for risk)
2. Foreign investor has competitive advantage relative to host country rivals (monopolistic advantage)
3. FDI more profitable than exporting (locationspecific advantage)
4. FDI more profitable than unaffiliated foreign production
5. Special advantage of foreign investor exceeds costs and risks of owning and managing a foreign operation
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 5
FDI Theories
Economic/financial
Expected return differential
Currency premium
Diversification benefits
Behavioral
Defensive action in oligopolistic market
Monopolistic advantage
Firm-specific advantage overcomes inherent disadvantage of operating abroad
Product life cycle
Internalization
Markets vs heirarchies
Eclectic
Mon. Adv., Internalization & location specific advantage
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 6
A Case: Connor Vila Real
Connor Peripherals is a U.S. manufacturer of compact, resilient hard drives for laptop and desktop PC's. Connor sells drives to PC manufacturers worldwide. Because of certain incentives and low labor costs, Connor is considering shifting a substantial proportion of its production to Vila Real, Portugal.
1. What might be the advantages of locating production in Portugal?
2. What risks might Connor face?
Base your answer on FDI theory.
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 7
Connor Vila Real
A. Alternatives?
B. Advantages
Incentives
Lower costs of production
Portuguese market/EU market
C. Risks
Quality control
On time delivery
Customer responsiveness & interaction suffer?
Production disruptions
Exchange risk
Political risk
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 8
Capital Budgeting Proposals
BOARD OF DIRECTORS
MANAGEMENT
COMMITTEE
INVESTMENT
ADVISORY
COMMITTEE
TREASURER'S
DEPARTMENT
GUIDELINES
LOCAL AFFILIATE PROJECT
PROPOSAL
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 9
International Capital Budgeting
The Capital Budgeting Decision Process
The Relevant Cash Flows
Initial
Operating
Terminal
Exchange and Political Risk Factors
Capital Budgeting Techniques
Payback
NPV
IRR
Approaches for Dealing with Risk
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 10
International Capital Budgeting And
Long-Term Investments
Direct Foreign Investment (FDI) involves the transfer of capital, managerial, and technical assets to a foreign country
Two additional factors must be considered:
Exchange rate fluctuations
Political/jurisdictional risks and barriers
Firms can protect themselves against exchange rate fluctuations using
debt and/or derivatives
pricing.
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 11
Hangzhou Power Project
Key elements:
Cash flow analysis
Understanding risks and returns of the financing techniques
Valuation
INVESTORS
INTERMEDIARIES
SPONSORS
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 12
Hanel: Net Income
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
-5000
Net Revenues, 000 RMB
(Baseline assumptions)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 13
The Relevant Cash Flows
Relevant Cash Flows include:
The incremental after-tax cash outflow
(investment) for the project
The resulting subsequent cash inflows associated with the project
Incremental Cash Flows are the additional cash flows directly attributable to the proposed project
Can be expressed in host currency, then result translated into home currency
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 14
Cash Flow Components
Terminal Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flows
$25,000
$4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $7,000 $8,000 $8,000 $8,000 $9,000 $10,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Time (Years)
$50,000
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
Initial Investment
International Investing 15
Finding the Initial Investment
The initial investment
Initial investment is determined by subtracting all cash inflows occurring at time zero from all the cash outflows occurring at time zero
Installed cost of new asset
Outflows to be considered include:
Cost of the new asset
Installation costs
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 16
Finding the Operating Cash Inflows
The income statement format for calculating operating cash inflows is:
-
Revenue
Expenses (Excluding Depreciation)
=
+
=
-
=
-
=
Profits Before Depreciation and Taxes
Depreciation
Net Profits Before Taxes
Taxes
Net Profits After Taxes
Depreciation
Operating Cash Inflows
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 17
Finding the Terminal Cash Flow
The Terminal Cash Flow is an after-tax cash flow from the termination and liquidation of a project at the end of its expected useful life
To lend closure to the analysis, the firm must end up where it started, i.e. without the asset.
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 18
Hanel: Cash Flow from Operations
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Net Operating Cash Flows, 000 RMB
(Baseline assumptions)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 19
Interpreting the Cash Flows: NPV
NPV =
n
CF t i=1
(1 + k) t
- II
= Present Value of Cash Inflows - Initial
Investment
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 20
IRR is calculated by solving:
t = 1 n CF t
(1 + IRR) t
= II
PV of Cash Inflows = Initial Investment
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 22
Adjusted Present Value in International
Capital Budgeting
APV =
- Initial costs
+ Present value of operating cash flows
+ Present value of tax shield
+ Present value of financing subsidies
What rate should be used to discount cash flows in APV?
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 23
Inflation and Devaluation
Currency treatment of cash flows?
DOMESTIC
FOREIGN
REAL NOMINAL
Also: Evaluate local or only repatriated cash flows?
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 24
Blocked Funds
Local cash flows
Repatriated cash flows
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
Projected cash flows, reinvested at local rate of return
International Investing 25
Imperial Power Spain
1. Domestic sales volume & foreign sales volume (from price changes & elasticities)
2. X projected prices = peseta revenues
3. From units sold get variable costs
4. Other costs; taxable income; income & withholding taxes
5. Project cash flows, incl. Depr., W.C., T.V., int. after tax
6. Dollars
7. Royalties
8. U.S. Taxes
9. Discount to present at 16%
10.Discuss assumptions
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 26
Imperial Power Spain
TABLE 1 TO TAL SALES VO LU M E AN D R EVEN U E
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
D om estic Sales
1. U nits budgeted to be sold
2. U nit sales price (15% p.a. increase)
3. D om estic sales revenue (Ptas 000)
Export Sales
4. Pta. unit price in Spain (line 2)
5. Forecast Exchange rate, Pta./FF
6. U nit price in French francs
7. C hange in franc price over prior year
8. Less allowable 5% annual inflation
9. R elative price change over prior year1
10. R esulting volum e change (tim es -1.5)
11. Prior year sales volum e
12. Increase for 10% growth
13. Volum e before price effect
14. Tim es elasticity factor (line 10)2
15. U nits budgeted to be sold
16. Tim es unit price (in pesetas)
17. Export sales revenue (Ptas. 000)
C alculation of Sales Volum e
18. D om estic Volum e (line 1)
19. Export Volum e (line 15)
20. Total U nit Volum e
1979 1980
50000 x 1,300
65000
60000 x 1,495
89700
1300
16.67
77.98
150000 x 1,300
195000
1495
17.5
85.43
9.55%
-5.00%
4.55%
-6.82%
150000
15000
165000 x 0.9318
153747 x 1,495
229852
50000
150000
200000
60000
153747
213747
International Investing 27
Cost Calculations
EXH IBIT 2 C O ST C ALC U LATIO N S
C alculation of per-unit cost of im ported m aterial
(N ote: 20% of Ptas. 840 = Ptas. 168
21. O riginal dollar unit cost (Ptas. 168/70)
22. Adjusted to U .S. inflation rate (tim es 1.05n)
23. Inflated dollar unit cost
24. Exchange rate (year begin)
25. Peseta unit cost of im ported m aterial
C alculation of peseta interest expense
26. D ollar interest paid (10% x $600,000)
27. Exchange rate (year end)
28. Peseta interest expense (000)
C alculation of peseta royalty expense
29. D ollar royalties paid
30. Exchange rate (year end)
31. Peseta royalty expense (000)
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
1979 1980
$2.40
x 1.0000
2.4
70
168
$2.40
x 1.0500
2.52
70
176.4
$60,000
70
4200
$60,000
85
5100
$30,000
70
2100
$30,000
85
2550
International Investing 28
Pro-Forma Income Statement
TABLE 3 PR O -FO R M A IN C O M E STATEM EN TS (Pta 000)
1979
R evenue from Sales
32. D om estic sales revenue (line 3)
33. Export sales revenue (line 17)
34. Total revenue
Expenses
35. Im port m aterial/unit (line 25)
36. D om estic m aterial/unit (840)(0.4)(1.15)n
37. Labor/unit (840)(0.4)(1.15)n
38. Total unit variable costs
39. Tim es unit sales volum e (line 20)
40. Total variable costs (Ptas 000)
41. M anufacturing overhead (x 1.15n)
42. D epreciation (10% of cost)
43. Interest (line 28)
44. R oyalties (line 31)
45. Total expenses
Profit & D ividend C alculation
46. N et incom e before tax
47. Less 30% incom e tax
48. N et incom e after tax
49. Less 10% dividend tax
50. D ividend paid to IPC (U S)
D ollar equivalents on above
51. Year-end exchange rate
52. N et incom e before incom e tax ($)
53. Incom e & D ividend taxes paid
54. D ividend paid to IPC (U S)
1980
65000
195000
260000
89700
229852
319552
168
336
336
840
176.4
386.4
386.4
949.2
x 200,000 x 213,747
168000
75000
7000
4200
2100
256300
202889
86250
7000
5100
2550
303789
3700
1110
2590
259
2331
70
52857
19557
33300
15763
4729
11034
1103
9931
85
185447
68612
116835
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 29
Project Cash Flow Analysis
TABLE 4 PR O JEC T C ASH FLO W S (Pta 000)
1978 1979
C ash Inflows
55. N et incom e after tax (line 48)
56. D epreciation (line 42)
57. Interest after tax (line 28 x 0.7)
58. R ecapture of working capital3
59. N et term inal value4
60. Total cash inflow
C ash O utflows
61. N et working capital
62. Equipm ent
63. Total outflows
C ash Flow Analysis
64. N et cash flows
65. 16% present value factor
66. Present value of each cash flow
67. C um ulative net present value
68. Approxim ate internal rate
of return = 46%
1980
--
--
--
--
--
77000 --
70000 --
147000 --
2590
7000
2940
--
--
12530
11034
7000
3570
--
--
21604
--
--
--
-147000
1
-147000
-147000
12530
0.8621
10802
-136198
21604
0.7432
16056
-120142
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 30
Parent Cash Flow Analysis
TABLE 5 PAR EN T C ASH FLO W AN ALYSIS (U S$)
1978
C ash Inflows
69. D ividends from IPC -Spain (line 54)
70. R oyalty receipts from IPC -Spain (line 29)
71. N et term inal value5
72. Total cash inflow
C ash O utflows
73. Parent equity investm ent
74. Pre-tax incom e, IPC -Spain (line 52)
75. U .S. taxes at 50%
76. Less credit for Spanish taxes (line 53)
77. U .S. taxes payable on dividend incom e
78. U .S. taxes payable on royalty incom e
79. Total outflow
C ash Flow Analysis
80. N et cash flow
81. 16% value factor
82. Present value of each cash flow
83. C um ulative net present value
84. Approx. internal rate of return =27%
1979 1980
--
--
--
--
33300
30000
--
63300
116835
30000
--
146835
--
--
--
--
--
1500000 --
1500000
52857
26428
19557
6871
15000
21871
--
185447
92723
68612
24111
15000
39111
-1500000
1
-1500000
41429
0.8621
35716
107724
0.7432
80060
-1500000 -1464284 -1384224
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 31
Adjusting for Risk
Scenario, sensitivity and simulation
Certainty equivalent
Adjusting the discount rate
Risk and the CAPM
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 34
Sensitivity and
Scenario Analysis
An approach that attempts to capture the variability of cash inflows and NPV's
Sensitivity Analysis uses a number of possible values for a given variable to assess its impact on return, as measured by NPV
Scenario Analysis is similar to sensitivity analysis but allows for simultaneous changes in a number of variables
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 36
Simulation
Simulation is a statistically-based approach using probability distributions and random numbers to estimate risky outcomes
Use computer to simulate virtually every inflow and outflow variable and determine the resulting
NPV's
After a thousand or so simulations the decision maker has a good idea of not only the expected value of the return on a project, but also the dispersion: the probability of achieving a given return.
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 37
Risk Adjustment Techniques
Certainty Equivalents (CE's) adjust cash inflows to determine the percentage of estimated inflows that investors would be satisfied to receive for certain in exchange for those that are possible each year
t
CF t
NPV when CE's are used is calculated as n
t x CF t
:
NPV =
= - I I
(1 + R
F
) t t =1
= Certainty Equivalent factor in year t (0 <
t
< 1)
= Relevant cash inflow in year t
R
F
= Risk-free rate of return
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 39
Risk-Adjustment Techniques
Risk-Adjusted Discount Rates (RADR's) adjust for risk by changing the discount rate -- raising it for higher risk and lowering it for lower risk
RADR's are calculated as
NPV =
n
(1 + RADR) t t =1
CF t
- II
The use of RADRs is closely linked to the capital asset pricing model (CAPM)
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 42
RADR and CAPM
Recall that total risk = nondiversifiable risk + diversifiable risk
Beta is a measure of nondiversifiable risk and k j
= R
F
+
j
(k m
-R
F
) (CAPM)
If we assume that real corporate assets are traded in efficient markets, CAPM can be modified as follows: k
Project j
= R
F
+
j Project
(k m
-R
F
) where:
j Project is the relationship between the project's expected return and the market's expected return
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 43
RADR and CAPM k k m
R
F
Accept
0
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
1.0
Beta
Reject
SML
International Investing 44
Portfolio Effects
The value of the firm is generally not affected by diversification
The market for real corporate assets is inefficient, therefore total risk is most relevant
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 47
Risk-Adjusted Investment Cutoff Rates
COUNTRY
ARGENTINA
AUSTRALIA
BELGIUM
BRAZIL
CANADA
FRANCE
GERMANY
GREECE
INDIA
INDONESIA
ITALY
JAPAN
MALAYSIA
MEXICO
14
14
12
17
10
17
20
17
14
10
12
CUTOFF RATE
17%
10
10
COUNTRY CUTOFF RATE
NETHERLANDS 10
NEW ZEALAND 10
NIGERIA 20
PHILIPPINES
PORTUGAL
PUERTO RICO
17
14
12
SINGAPORE 12
SOUTH AFRICA 12
SOUTH KOREA 20
SPAIN 14
TAIWAN
THAILAND
17
20
UNITED KINGDOM 12
UNITED STATES 10
VENEZUELA 17
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 50
Government Subsidized Financing i = normal cost of debt i* = subsidized cost
Then subsidy equals F(i-i*), where f is the amount of debt subsidized.
A. Adjusting project's cost of capital
B. Adjusting project net cash flows
Which is correct? Depends on reinvestment assumption .
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 51
Financing Decisions
Capital Structure
Firm Financing Needs
Short Term Debt
Long Term Debt
Equity
Hybrid Securities
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 52
Financing Choices
DEBT
SHORT
TERM
BANK LOANS
REVOLVERS,
EUROCREDITS
COMMERCIAL
PAPER
TERM LOANS
THE
FIRM
LONG
TERM
EQUITY COMMON
HYBRIDS
LEASING
PREFERRED STOCK
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
CONVERTS RIGHTS WARRANTS
International Investing 53
Bond Credit Risk
Moody’s
Aaa
Aa
A
Baa
Ba
B
Caa
Ca
C
Standard &
Poor’s
AAA
AA
A
BBB
BB
B
CCC
CC
C
D
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
Interpretation
High-quality debt instruments
Strong to adequate ability to pay principal and interest
Ability to pay interest and principal speculative
In default
International Investing 54
Valuation of Common Stock
Book Value Per Share
Liquidation Value Per Share
Price/Earnings (P/E) Multiples
Capital Asset Pricing Model (expected return and nondiversifiable risk)
Risk-Adjusted Net Present Value
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 55
Financing Choices
DEBT
SHORT
TERM
BANK LOANS
REVOLVERS,
EUROCREDITS
COMMERCIAL
PAPER
TERM LOANS
THE
FIRM
LONG
TERM
EQUITY COMMON
HYBRIDS
LEASING
PREFERRED STOCK
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
CONVERTS RIGHTS WARRANTS
International Investing 56
Mergers and Acquisitions
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 62
Corporate Finance
CORPORATE FINANCE
DECISONS
INVESTMENT
PORTFOLIO
CAPITAL
M&A
FINANCING
DEBT EQUITY
RISK MGT
MEASUREMENT
TOOLS
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 63
The Market for Corporate Control
M&A&D situations often arise from conflicts:
Owner vs manager ("agency problems"
Build vs buy ("internalization")
Agency problems arise when owners' interests and managers' interests diverge. Resolving agency problems requires
Monitoring & intervention, or
Setting incentives, or
Constraining, as in bond covenants
Resolving principal-agent conflicts is costly
Hence market price may differ from potential value of a corporation
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 64
“Internalization”: Is an activity best done within the company, or outside it?
Issue: why are certain economic activities conducted within firms rather than between firms?
As a rule, it is more costly to build than to buy — markets make better decisions than bureaucrats
Hence there must be some good reason, some synergy, that makes an activity better if done within a firm
Eg: the production of proprietary information
Often, these synergies are illusory
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 65
Goals of Acquisitions
Rationale: Firm A should merge with Firm B if
[Value of AB > Value of A + Value of B + Cost of transaction]
Synergy
Gain market power
Discipline
Taxes
Financing
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 66
Do Acquisitions Benefit Shareholders?
Successful Bids
Technique Target Bidders
Tender offer
Merger
Proxy contest
30%
20%
8%
4%
0 na
Note: Abnormal price changes are price changes adjusted to eliminate the effects of marketwide price changes
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 67
Do Acquisitions Benefit Shareholders?
Unsuccessful Bids
Technique Target Bidders
Tender offer
Merger
Proxy contest
-3%
-3%
8%
-1%
-5% na
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 68
Goal of Acquisitions and Mergers
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 69
Fallacies of Acquisitions
Size (shareholders would rather have their money back, eg Credit Lyonnais)
Downstream/upstream integration
(internal transfer at nonmarket prices, eg
Dow/Conoco, Aramco/Texaco)
Diversification into unrelated industries
(Kodak/Sterling Drug)
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 70
Success Rates For Cross-Border
Mergers And Acquisitions
100%=28
Success
43%
Failure
57%
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 71
Success Rates For Cross-Border
Alliances
100%=45
Undecided
18%
Success
55%
Failure
27%
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 72
What's It Worth?
Valuation Methods
Book value approach
Market value approach
Ratios (like P/E ratio)
Break-up value
Cash flow value
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 73
How Much Should We Pay?
Applying the discounted cash flow approach, we need to know:
1.The incremental cash flows to be generated from the acquisition, adjusted for debt servicing and taxes
2.The rate at which to discount the cash flows (required rate of return)
3.The deadweight costs of making the acquisition (investment banks' fees, etc)
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 74
Framework for evaluating the value of an Acquisition
Standalone value of acquirer
(premerger)
Standalone value of target
(without any takeover premium)
Value of
Synergies
Transaction
Costs
Combined
Value
Value of acquirer if it does not acquire target
Value of target to acquirer
Price paid including premium
Net value gained from acquisition
Adapted from: W. Pursche, “Building Better Bids: Synergies and Acquisition \prices”, Chief Financial Officcer USA (1988):63-64
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 75
Framework For Assessing
Restructuring Opportunities
Current perceptions gap
Current
Market
Value
1
Maximum restructuring opportunity
Company value as is
2 5
Optimal restructured value
Strategic and operating opportunities
Restructuring
Framework
Financial engineering opportunities
3
Potential value with internal improvements
Disposal/
Acquisition opportunities
4
Potential value with internal and external improvements
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 76
$ 975
$ 350
Using The Restructuring Framework
$ Millions of Value
$1,000
$ 25
Current
Market
Value
$ 725
Current perceptions gap
1
Maximum restructuring opportunity
Company value as is
2
Strategic and operating opportunities
3
Potential value with internal improvements
$ 1,325
Restructuring
Framework
Disposal/
Acquisition opportunities
$ 300
5
Optimal restructured value
$ 1,725
Financial engineering opportunities
$ 100
4
Increase D/E
Potential value with internal and external improvements
$ 1,625
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 77
The Cost of Capital
Required rate of return on equity, R
E
, may be computed from the Capital Asset
Pricing Model (CAPM):
R
E
= R
F
+ Beta (R
M where R
F
= risk-free rate
- R
F
)
Beta= nondiversifiable risk factor, and
R
M
= return on the market.
In short, the discount factor should reflect the riskiness of the acquisition.
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 78
Application
Fakawi Navigation plans to acquire Feng-Shui
Compass Co. This would result in $25 million of incremental operating revenues in each of the first 5 years, and in $15 million of additional debt servicing costs per annum, as well as $5 million in tax shields.
Fakawi expects to divest the target in year 6 for $100 million. The Treasury note rate is 6%, and the S&P return is 16%. Fakawi's advisors estimate that Feng-
Shui has a beta of 1.3. For this advice they are charging 2% of the acquisition price.
What is the maximum price that Fakawi should offer for
Feng-Shui?
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 79
Reasons Why Many Acquisitions Fail
To Generate Value
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
Value
Destruction
Deal price not based on cash flow value
International Investing 80
Reasons Why Many Acquisitions Fail
To Generate Value
Over optimistic market assessments
Value
Destruction
Deal price not based on cash flow value
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 81
Reasons Why Many Acquisitions Fail
To Generate Value
Overestimating synergies
Over optimistic market assessments
Value
Destruction
Deal price not based on cash flow value
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 82
Reasons Why Many Acquisitions Fail
To Generate Value
Overestimating synergies
Over optimistic market assessments
Value
Destruction
Poor post-merger integration
Deal price not based on cash flow value
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 83
Typical Losing Pattern For Mergers
Candidates are screened on basis of industry and company growth and returns
One or two candidates are rejected on basis of objective DCF analysis
Frustration sets in; pressures build to do a deal; DCF analysis is tainted by unrealistic expectations of synergies
Deal is consummated at large premium
Postacquisition experience reveals expected synergies are illusory
Company’s returns are reduced and stock price falls
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 84
Divestitures
Divestiture: the sale of a segment of a company to a third party
Spin-offs —a pro-rata distribution by a company of all its shares in a subsidiary to all its own shareholders
Equity carve-outs —some of a subsidiary' shares are offered for sale to the general public
Split-offs —some, but not all, parent-company shareholders receive the subsidiary's shares in return for which they must relinquish their shares in the parent company
Split-ups —all of the parent company's subsidiaries are spun off and the parent company ceases to exist.
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 85
Divestitures Add Value
Shareholders of the selling firm seem to gain, depending on the fraction sold:
Total value created by divestititures between 1981 and 1986 = $27.6 billion.
% of the firm sold Announcement effect
0-10%
10-50%
50%+
0
+2.5%
+8%
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 86
Strategic Alliances:
An Alternative to Acquisition
"A strategic alliance is a collaborative agreement between two or more companies, which contribute resources to a common endeavor of potentially important competitive consequences, while maintaining their individuality."
Example with internal emphasis: Sunkyong with GTE,
Vodaphone & Hutchinson Whampoa for cellular system
Example with external emphasis: Santander with
Royal Bank of Scotland for European market in financial services
Driving forces:
Complementary resources - gain strategic resources
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
Similar capabilities - gain economies or market power
International Investing 87
Forms of Strategic Alliance
Many linkages are options for future development of relationships
POTENTIAL
FOR CONTROL
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
ACQUISITION MERGER
WITH FULL
INTEGRATION
JOINT
VENTURE
INFORMAL
ALLIANCE
JOINT
PROJECTS
SPECIFIC
DISTRIBUTION
OR SUPPLY
AGREEMENT
IRREVERSIBILITY OF COMMITMENT
International Investing 88
Pitfalls and Problems
Linkage may not offer access to partner's resources (JP Morgan-Espirito Santo)
Disagreement on contribution (Euroclear-Cedel)
Partners competing in one another's market
(Credit Lyonnias-Commerzbank)
Linkage may exclude other options for expansion into a product or market
Clash of cultures; cross-purpose marketing (Credit
Suisse-First Boston)
Key predictor of stability is asset specificity and irreversibility of commitment.
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 89
Geographic Overlap Helps Mergers
And Acquisitions...
6
Failure for acquirer
92
94
Success for acquirer
8
Minimal geographic overlap (sample of 12)
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
Moderate or high geographic overlap (sample of 16)
International Investing 90
...But It Hinders Alliances
Failure for both partners
Mixed
Results
24
14
Success for both partners
62
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
Minimal geographic overlap
(sample of 37)
37
38
25
Moderate or high geographic overlap
International Investing 91
Mergers and Acquisitions: Summary
Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy
International Investing 92