Sandra Ruckstuhl, PhD
2010 Summer Teacher Institute
University of Chicago
29 June 2010

Structure of Presentation
 CONF 695 Water and Conflict

Conflict Analysis and Resolution
 Environmental Conflict
 Water Conflict
 Water and Dennis Sandole’s Three Pillar Model
 Cases

Conclusion

CONF 695: Water and Conflict
 Integrate conflict theory, water concepts, and case literature
 Case study approach to highlight social and environmental challenges and perspectives at different levels

Critical thinking and internal debate

Guest speakers from the field

Student presentations – on cases, on research, on policy proposals

Conflict Analysis and Resolution
Principles

Conflict studies = analysis and resolution

Interdisciplinary - social psychology, international re, development studies, cultural studies

Promotes critical thinking about social relationships, needs, aspirations and power between individuals and groups

Conflict is not necessarily bad (innovation)

Violence is a negative manifestation of conflict

Cooperation is an inherent opportunity in everything

Conflict Analysis and Resolution
Integrative Practice
PEACEMAKING
PEACE-
BUILDING
PREVENTIVE
ACTION

Conflict Analysis and Resolution
Christopher Mitchell’s SPITCEROW Model

S = Sources

P = Parties
 I = Issues and interests
 T = Tactics
 C = Changes

E = Enlargement

R = Roles
 O = Outcomes
 W = Winner

Conflict Analysis and Resolution
Dennis Sandole’s Three Pillar Model
PILLAR 2
Conflict Conditions
PILLAR 1
Conflict Sources
Individual level
Societal level
International level
Global/ecological level
Parties (violent)
Issues
Objectives
Means
Conflict-handling orientations
Conflict environment
PILLAR 3
Conflict Resolution
Prevention
Management
Settlement
Resolution
Transformation

Environmental Conflict
What is it?
Analysis = What is the nature of these disputes?
Resolution = How can we address them?

Environmental Conflict
What are the “resources”?

Conflict over non-renewable (finite) resources

Minerals (diamonds, oil, coltan)
 Land (property rights)
 Conflict over renewable resources

Forests and timber

Air

Water

Environmental Conflict
What are the dynamics?

Environmental Conflict
What are the dynamics?

Environmental Conflict
What are the dynamics?
RELATIVE SCARCITY + POOR INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY
= POTENTIAL CONFLICT
 Supply-, demand-, structurally driven scarcity leads to conflict (Homer-Dixon 1999)
 Demographic stress (environment + population) leads to state failure/exploitation (Kahl 2002)
 Differential power and differential impacts of environmental degradation (Peluso and Watts 2001)
BUT if we think critically and creatively human ingenuity can overcome…

Water Conflict

Water Conflict

Popular coverage of and rhetoric around international “water wars”

Indirect role in intrastate , rather than interstate, violent conflict

Internal fragility associated with inequity of water scarcity problems

Problems with quality and quantity

Water Conflict

Environmental change (including global warming) means more water in some areas, less water in others, and pollution worldwide

Environmental change can cause social stress and lead to conflict if institutions cannot adjust to those changes in a productive way

Water Conflict
A source of destruction, poverty & dispute
• Drought
• Flood & inundation
• Landslide
• Desertification
• Contamination
•
Epidemic & disease
• Dispute, even conflict
A source of production, growth & cooperation
• Healthy people
• Healthy ecosystems
• Food production
• Energy production
• Navigation
•
Cultural Value
• Cooperation

Conflict Analysis and Resolution
Dennis Sandole’s Three Pillar Model
PILLAR 2
Conflict Conditions
PILLAR 1
Conflict Sources
Individual level
Societal level
International level
Global/ecological level
Parties (violent)
Issues
Objectives
Means
Conflict-handling orientations
Conflict environment
PILLAR 3
Conflict Resolution
Prevention
Management
Settlement
Resolution
Transformation

Three Pillar Model
Conflict Sources: Parties
There are many different users of water:
 Water for people (supply and sanitation)
 Water for environment (ecosystems)
 Water for food (irrigation)
 Water for energy (hydropower)
 Water for other purposes
(e.g., culture or religion)
They have different, sometimes competing needs.

Three Pillar Model
Conflict Sources: Parties





Three Pillar Model
Conflict Sources: Parties

Water resources (e.g., rivers, aquifers, lakes) cross different kinds of jurisdictional lines

Interstate

Intrastate

Three Pillar Model
Conflict Sources: Issues
Relative scarcity + institutional capacity deficiencies = conflict

Ownership

Who has the right to it?
 Consumption

How should it be used?

Distribution
 Who has access and who does not?

Management
 How should it be governed?

Three Pillar Model
Conflict Sources: Issues
Category
Renewable natural resource changes
Other physical changes
Relational changes
Type
Quality
Quantity
Temporal
Variability
Demographic
Infrastructure
Behavioral
Parties (individuals and groups)
Institutions
Power and influence
Eco-economic changes
Conflict tactics
Value of and relationship to the resources

Three Pillar Model
Conflict Sources: Issues

Three Pillar Model
Conflict Sources: Issues

Three Pillar Model
Conflict Sources: Issues
Direct/indirect control over resources = power

Control over supply (domestic and industry)

Control over food production (domestic and export)

Control over environment (drought and flood)

Control over health issues (diseases)

Control over energy production (hydropower)

Three Pillar Model
Conflict Conditions: Individual/Societal
Water Scarcity 2025

Three Pillar Model
Conflict Conditions: Individual/Societal

Three Pillar Model
Conflict Conditions: Societal/International
Projected Population
Developing & Transition Countries (DTC) and OECD
Mega cities
Rapid urban growth in secondary cities & towns
Still many in fragile rural areas

Three Pillar Model
Conflict Conditions: International
More than 260 river basins with more than 2 countries…

Three Pillar Model
Conflict Conditions: International
Tensions longstanding and growing with demand…

Three Pillar Model
Conflict Conditions
Physical Effects of Climate Change
 Increased variability, availability and access to resources

Changes in precipitation

Glacial melt

Reduced quality of land (erosion, contamination)

Increased desertification
 Changes to crop seasons
 Changes in biodiversity
 Rising sea levels

Flooding coastal areas, including urban habitats and farmland

Disruption of aquatic habitats and fish populations

Natural disasters and extreme weather events (i.e. hurricanes, flash floods, droughts, landslides, wild fires, spread of disease and pestilence)

Three Pillar Model
Conflict Conditions
Social Impacts of Climate Change

Loss of livelihoods

Economic shocks and instability

Food shortages and food insecurity
 Human health impacts (e.g. disease)
 Food insecurity

Trade relations

Migration

Political instability and state fragility

Spillover effects impacting neighboring areas
Inequitable impacts and social tensions

Three Pillar Model
Conflict Resolution
 Conflict prevention (early intervention/diplomacy)
 Conflict management (security operations and peacekeeping)
 Conflict settlement (coercive peacemaking)

Conflict resolution (non-coercive peacemaking)
 Conflict transformation (social cohesion, resilience, capacity)

Three Pillar Model
Conflict Resolution
(e.g., policy and official administrative structures) and
(e.g., norms, values, perceptions, behaviors, knowledge)

Three Pillar Model
Conflict Resolution
Environmental Peacebuilding
Capitalizes on ecological interdependencies to promote social, economic, and political relationships through joint environmental management and benefit sharing
Opportunities both for prevention and transformation are everywhere…

Cases
Nile River Basin

Cases
The Sahel Region

Cases
Yemen

Cases
Israel and the Palestinian Territories

Cases
The Dead Sea

Cases
Indus River Basin