Science for Disaster Risk
Management: what are the
priorities?
Dr Nicola Ranger
DFID, Research and Evidence Division
Science underpins our commitment
to increasing preparedness and
resilience…
The HERR in 2011 highlighted the need for
HM Government to go beyond its historical
focus on responding to crisis, toward a more
anticipatory approach in its humanitarian
work, with a greater investment in building
the resilience of least developed countries.
DFID committed to making resilience a core
part of its approach in all country programmes
A continuing theme throughout the HERR was
the need to make better use of science in
predicting and preparing for natural disasters
and in informing investments in resilience.
Humanitarian Evidence and Innovation Strategy
Focus on four challenges…
One: Decision-makers do not have routine access
to good information about risk.
Two: We don’t really know which interventions
are most effective in reducing risk, saving lives
and rebuilding livelihoods after crises.
Three: The capacity to design and deliver
humanitarian response and to build resilience is
already stretched and will become increasingly
overwhelmed
Four: The right systems and incentives are not in
place to ensure that evidence is available and
used to inform decision-making.
Reaffirming our commitment in 2014…
WBG-IMF Spring Meetings Resilience Dialogue, 11th April 2014
“We urgently need larger, sustained
investment in preparedness and resilience”
Science and Innovation continues to play an
important role, e.g.:
“As humanitarian need grows it is clear we
need to find new and innovative approaches,
building a 21st Century approach to disasters”
“For the most part, disasters are no longer
the unexpected cataclysms of old. The
science of predicting and understanding
risk is getting better every day”.
• Innovative early warning
systems that improve
communication and
coordination for response
• Monitoring systems to track
disasters and their impacts
• Detailed risk assessments
2012 Foresight report on Reducing
Risks of Future Disasters: Priorities
for Decision Makers identified
significant opportunities for science
to better support preparedness and
response: e.g.
• Higher resolution models, with the
potential to increase the reliability of
weather forecasting, will become widely
available in the next 20 years
• Satellite observing systems combined with
improved models could significant improve
flood risk assessment and warnings with
the next 10 – 20 years
• Drought forecasting is expected to mature,
partly as a result of improved global
observations
What are the needs related to risk assessment
and early warning systems?
• Commissioned scoping study to better understand the needs and
opportunities in three regions: South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and the
Caribbean.
• 5 month study led by HR Wallingford (with several partners)
• Components:
–
–
–
–
–
Literature review
Case studies (11 cases led by Practical Action)
Online survey (~300 respondents from regions)
Workshops (Caribbean, 3xEast Africa, London)
Interviews (~30 in regions)
Limited number contributors
Subjective assessment of
effectiveness
• Subsequently followed-up with NERC workshop on scientific opportunities
(focused on geophysical hazards)
1. Progress but not enough…
Source: UNISDR
1. Progress but not enough…
Flood
UNISDR Progress reports may be
optimistic, particularly concerning
access to risk information at the
local level and to vulnerable groups
Drought
2. Heterogeneous needs…
• Some shared needs – improved
communications of information to most
vulnerable groups and ‘science to action’
• Regionally differentiated needs, e.g.
– Africa – flood/drought assessment and
warnings
– Asia – strong cyclone and flood risk.
Weaker on drought and landslides
– Caribbean – strong cyclone, weaker
drought and flooding
• Nationally specific needs – major
differences in capacity (e.g. Haiti)
• Community-specific needs – information
does not reach most vulnerable
Effectiveness of
cyclone warning
systems
3. The “last mile” is by far the longest…
Sub-Saharan
Africa
South Asia
Caribbean
Considerable gaps in
data availability and
monitoring
Gaps in science for
drought & landslides,
vulnerability & exposure
Gaps in science for
floods & droughts,
vulnerability & exposure
Some systems in place
but major gaps,
particularly for flooding
Generally, systems in
place for main hazards
but some gaps
Generally, systems in
place for main hazards
but some gaps
Communication/
Dissemination
Major gaps in
communication to the
most vulnerable
Major gaps in
communication to the
most vulnerable
Generally, systems in
place for main hazards
but some gaps
Response
Information (risk
assessments and
warnings) does not
always lead to action
Underpinning
Science and Data
Risk Assessment
and Warnings Tools
Information (risk
assessments and
warnings) does not
always lead to action
Information (risk
assessments and
warnings) does not
always lead to action
Humanitarian Evidence and Innovation Strategy
Focus on four challenges…
One: Decision-makers do not have routine access
to good information about risk.
Two: We don’t really know which interventions
are most effective in reducing risk, saving lives
and rebuilding livelihoods after crises.
Three: The capacity to design and deliver
humanitarian response and to build resilience is
already stretched and will become increasingly
overwhelmed
Four: The right systems and incentives are not in
place to ensure that evidence is available and
used to inform decision-making.
What do we need?
• Co-production of risk assessments and warning systems
with the intended beneficiaries
– The right information, to the right people in the right way
– Building trust in information (& the right messenger)
– Challenge – how to scale-up effectively and efficiently?
• Honest broker of risk assessment and warning systems
– Robust, reliable and independent evaluation of systems and tools
– Increased accessibility of information
– Minimum standards
• Better understanding the political economy (at all levels)
– Better understand major institutional barriers to uptake of information
and how these can be overcome; overcoming coordination issues
Opportunities for science and innovation…
• Next generation of remote sensing data offers opportunities to overcome
data scarcity in some areas and enhance science (e.g. Earthquake risk
assessment and new sentinel satellite)
• Shift toward more open access data and models (UNISDR global risk
model, Global Earthquake model etc.)
• Innovation in seasonal and
multi-annual forecasting could
stretch warning lead times
• Innovative sources data: crowdsourcing (e.g. open street map)
• Big data opportunities (e.g. vast
untapped data sources)
Needs from science…
• More open access data and models (filling the
gaps)
• More disaggregated vulnerability and exposure
data (response capacity)
• Making risk assessment more relevant: multihazard risk assessment, cascading hazards,
indirect impacts
• Greater inter-disciplinarily work – better
understanding risk drivers e.g. climate variability
and trends, food prices, political instability, etc.
• Real-time risk monitoring - coupling risk
assessment and monitoring/forecasting to
produce real-time risk information
• Long-term risk projections (risk is not stationary)
Direct economic losses and
fatalities in low and middle
income countries.
Source: Munich Re
Need science to get better at
articulating and
demonstrating its value to
decision makers
The right science in the right
way -co-production, end-to-end
research, the right partners,
building local capacity,
relevance, honest broker…)
What are we doing?
• Humanitarian Innovation and Evidence Strategy (approx.
£40m investment in research and evidence over 5 years), e.g.
– Improving the application of risk modelling for disaster risk management
– Pakistan (with GFDRR)
– Building evidence base on risk to urban populations in developing
countries (with ESRC)
– Using risk models to evaluate the benefits of sovereign risk transfer
(with the World Bank) – interesting work on risk models to evaluate
humanitarian impacts
• Scoping new programme: Science for Humanitarian
Emergencies and Resilience (SHEAR)
Challenge – How can we work better together?