Foreign Exchange Options Prof. Ian Giddy New York University Tools for Hedging Petrobras has to pay for equipment from Japan, in Japanese yen, in 3 months Lock in a forward price Or use a call option on the Yen? How much will it cost? Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy Currency Options 2 Option Hedge CALL OPTION ON YEN FORWARD CONTRACT Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy Currency Options 5 Option Hedge Questions about options: When should companies use them? Which options? How much do they cost, Are they worth paying for? What is the risk to the bank? Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy Currency Options 6 Foreign Exchange Options The right, but not the obligation, to exchange currency at a predertermined rate. The right to buy is a call; the right to sell, a put. American options permit the holder to exercise at any time before the expiration date; European options, only on the expiration date. Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy Currency Options 7 Hockey Stick Diagrams These show payoff at expiration of options. Eg. buying a call produces a gain if the currency rises above the strike plus the premium; the call writer’s profit profile is opposite. Buy a Put Gain or Loss Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy Value of Swiss franc Currency Options 8 Option Payoff Diagrams Buy call: right to purchase foreign currency Profit Profit BUY CALL OPTION + + Strike 0 0 Premium Forward Rate _ Forward _ SELL CALL OPTION Buy put: right to sell foreign currency Profit Profit BUY PUT OPTION + + 0 0 Forward _ Forward _ SELL PUT OPTION Figure 2. Payoff at Expiration of Options. Eg. buying a call produces a gain if the currency (ie the futures price) rises above the strike plus the premium; the call writer's profit profile is opposite. Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy Currency Options 9 Pricing a Call Option Forward relative to strike Time to expiration Volatility Interest rate Option Value Currency Value Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy Currency Options 15 Option Price is “Present value of average-profit-given exercise Underlying instrument has probability distribution Probability of exercise is given by area under curve to right of strike price Average-profit-given-exercise is mean of right hand area under curve minus the strike price (you buy at strike and sell at market) Value of option is the present value of that profit Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy Currency Options 16 Value of Call Option FORWARD Equals present value of its expected intrinsic value at expiration, given that the forward is above the strike STRIKE Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy Currency Options 17 Value of Call Option FORWARD STRIKE INTRINSIC VALUE SHADED AREA: Probability distribution of the log of the forward rate on the expiration date for values above the strike. TIME VALUE EXPECTED VALUE OF PROFIT GIVEN EXERCISE Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy Currency Options 18 Currency Option Pricing: the Famous Formula C PV [FN (d1 ) KN (d 2 )] where ln(F / K ) d1 2 d 2 d1 Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy Currency Options 19 How a Change in the Forward Rate Changes the Currency Option’s Price Profit (gain or loss) Time Value + F-K 0 K Forward market price of currency F _ Time Value K Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy F E(FJ*FJ>K) Currency Options 20 Delta Hedging Option Value HEDGE RATIO =80% HEDGE RATIO =50% HEDGE RATIO =15% Forward or Futures Price Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy Currency Options 21 The Effect of Increased Volatility Profit (gain or loss) Time Value + F-K 0 K Forward market price of currency F _ Time Value K Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy F E(FJ*FJ>K) Currency Options 22 Betting on Volatility Buy a Call Gain or Loss Plus: Buy a put Net effect: Long Straddle Value of Swiss franc Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy Currency Options 23 Unconventional Options Can be Cheaper Examples Soles per US Dollar Asian 2.52 Knock-in 2.5 2.51 Knock-out Digital Lookback These are priced using binomial models Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy 2.56 2.54 2.55 2.53 2.54 2.52 2.53 Currency Options 24 Asian (Average Price) Options Pays the difference between the strike price on the expiry date and the average price of the underlying instrument over a certain time period. Used where the purchaser wants to cover many spot transactions using one hedging instrument. Since the volatility of an average is less than the volatility for a spot price, average price options are less expensive Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy Currency Options 25 AVERAGE PRICE STRIKE PRICE Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy Currency Options 26 Knock-in and Knock-out Options A knock-in option has the same payout as a standard option if a certain barrier level is reached before the option expiry date, otherwise it pays nothing. A knock-out option becomes worthless if the price of the underlying instrument reaches a barrier level before the option expiry date. If the barrier is not reached, the payout is the same as a standard option. Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy Currency Options 27 BARRIER STRIKE PRICE Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy Currency Options 28 Client Situations... View on: Direction of rates Volatility of rates Relative rates Constraints - internal or imposed Credit aspects. Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy Currency Options 29 View on Direction, Volatility or Both? Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy Currency Options 30 When Use What? View on direction View on volatility Direction: Currency No trend rising Currency falling Buy call Buy put Sell put Sell call Buy forward Sell forward Buy straddle Sell straddle Arbitrage Volatility Volatility increasing Volatility falling No trend in volatility Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy Currency Options 31 Copyright ©1996 Ian H. Giddy Currency Options 32