Utsikter for norsk og europeisk
økonomi. MayDay 2014. 22/5/2014
Seniorøkonom Kjersti Haugland, DNB Markets
«All Time High» på børsene: Krisen er glemt!
Draghis «whatever it takes» 26/7/2012 ble vendepunktet
Aksjeindekser
1300
Spread i 10-års statsrenter
700
1200
600
Basispunkter
700
600
1100
500
1000
500
400 400
900
800
300
300
200
700
200
600
500
100
May-04 May-06 May-08 May-10 May-12 May-14
MSCI verdensindeks
Kilde: Thomson Datastream,/DNB Markets
Kilde: Thomson Datastream,
OSEBX (ha)
100
0
May-08
May-10
Italia-Tyskl.
Kilde: Thomson
Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
May-12
May-14
Spania-Tyskl.
Hellas låner penger igjen
Holdt sin første vellykkede gjeldsauksjon på 4 år i april (5 år, 4,95%)
Hellas: 10 års statsrenter
Prosent
50
210
45
Hellas: Bruttogjeld, %BNP
180
40
150
120
35
90
60
30
30
0
25
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Kilde: IMF Fiscal Monitor September 2011/DNB Markets
20
15
10
5
May-10
May-11
May-12
Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
May-13
May-14
Men økonomiene sliter fortsatt
Etterdønninger og tilbakeslag har gitt lav vekst i lang tid
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
Q1 2008
BNP, sesongjustert
Eurosonen: BNP
Prosentvis endring siden 2008Q1
Prosentvis endring siden 2008Q1
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
Q1 2010
USA
Japan
Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Q1 2012
EZ
Q1 2014
UK
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
I alt
Tyskland
Kilde Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Frankrike
Italia
Vårt hovedscenario: Fremvoksende drar lasset
Industriland: USA i tet, fra minus til (svakt) pluss i eurosonen
Globalt BNP
Prosentvis volumendring fra året før. Bidrag
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
1992
Kina
1996
2000
EMEs x Kina
2004
USA
2008
ØMU
Kilde: IMF WEO/Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
2012
2016
Øvrige industriland
Flere grunner til optimisme
1. Budsjettinnstrammingene blir mindre
Syklisk justert primærbalanse
Prosent av BNP. Endring år/år.
Positive tall er en innstramning
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
2011
2012
2013
ØMU
Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
2014
2015
2016
2017
USA
2018
Flere grunner til optimisme
2. Reformer har gitt lavere kostnader
ØMU: Lønnskostnader/prod.enhet
2000=100
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
2000
2003
Italia
Portugal
Frankrike
2006
Spania
Irland
Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
2009
2012
Hellas
Tyskland
Flere grunner til optimisme
3. Privat gjeld har kommet ned
Privat gjeld
Prosent av BNP
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
Q2 2001
Q2 2004
Q2 2007
Q2 2010
USA
Eurosonen
Kilde: BIS/IMF/DNB Markets
Q2 2013
Flere grunner til optimisme
4. Sentralbankene gir full gass
Styringsrenter
6
Ti års swaprenter
Faktisk/prognose 7.mai 2014
Faktisk/prognose 7.mai 2014
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
May-07 May-09 May-11 May-13 May-15 May-17
0
May-07 May-09 May-11 May-13 May-15 May-17
USA
UK
Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Japan
Sverige
ØMU
Norge
USA
UK
Kilde: Thomson Datastream/ DNB Markets
Japan
Sverige
ØMU
Norge
Hvor kan vi ta feil?
Noen eksempler
• USA: Inflasjonen kommer
tidligere/sterkere
• Eurosonen: Giftig
deflasjon/gjeldsspiral
• Kina: Hard landing
• Japan: Det pengepolitiske
eksperimentet går galt
Siste 20 år: Eventyrlig sterke for Norge
Da finanskrisen traff ble Norge for alvor annerledeslandet.
BNP
Prosentvis volumendring, 1990-2013
4
3
2
1
0
F-Norge
Sverige
Gjennomsnitt
Danmark Eurosonen
USA
Variasjon (Standardavvik)
Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/DNB Markets
2000-tallet: Triplet oljepris løftet lønnsomheten
Betydelige ringvirkninger, via investeringer, drift og lønnsoppgjør
Norge: Lønnsandel
Bytteforhold
Eksport-/importpriser. Indeks. Q2 1995=100
300
260
220
180
140
100
60
Q3 1996
Q3 2001
Danmark
F-Norge
Q3 2006
Sverige
Norge
Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Q3 2011
Finland
Prosent
80
Lønnskostnader/(lønnskostnader + driftsresultat)
78
76
74
72
70
68
66
64
62
60
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Fastlands-Norge
Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/DNB Markets
F.-næringer
Boligprisnivået en refleksjon av eventyret
Høy inntektsvekst for den jevne nordmann, lav rente, lav og stabil ledighet
Median husholdningsinntekt
Deflaterte boligpriser
Prisjustert, 2005=100
1985=100
130
300
120
250
110
200
100
150
90
100
80
70
50
1985
1990
Disp. inntekt
1995
2000
KPI
2005
2010
60
1990
1995
2000
2005
Byggekost
Norge
Kilde: EFF/finn.no/Eiendomsverdi/Statistisk sentralbyrå/DNB Markets
USA
Kilde: Thomson Datastream/Statistisk sentralbyrå/DNB Markets
2010
Tilbudssiden: Ingen byggebonanza i Norge
I 1990 hadde Irland 3,5 millioner innbyggere, Norge hadde 4,2 millioner
Irland: Befolkning og boligbygging
Norge: Befolkning og boligbygging
Årlig endring i 1000
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
-50
-50
1990
Bef.
1995
2000
Nettoinnvandring
Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
2005
2010
Fullførte boliger
Årlig endring i 1000
1990
Bef.
1995
2000
Nettoinnvandring
2005
2010
Fullførte boliger
Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
14
Todelt etter krisen: Olje- og boligsmurt oppgang
Fall i næringsinvesteringene, stagnasjon i eksport, tilbakeholdne forbrukere
Norge: Etterspørselskomp onenter
2008Q1=100. 3-kvartalers glidende snitt
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
Q1 2008 Q1 2010 Q1 2012 Q1 2014 Q1 2016
Priv. konsum
Nær.inv.
Off. kons
Boliginv.
Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Oljei nv.
Trad.eksport
Nå er oljeboomen på hell
Oljestimulansene går fra kraftig positive til mildt negative
Oljeinvesteringer
Spot Brent historikk og prognose
Milliarder NOK
Dollar/fat
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1994
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
1990
1995
2000
Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/DNB Markets
2005
2010
2015
1999
2004
2009
2014
FWD (nominelle priser)
Prognose nominelle priser
Prognose reelle priser (2013 USD)
Kilde: Thomson Reuters/DNB Markets
2019
Det dabber av, på bred basis
Todelingen nesten borte, mindre fart i oljå, boligbyggingen faller
Reg. nettverk: Produksjon. Endring
Reg. nettverk: Produksjon. Endring
Siste 3m og neste 6m. Skala -5 to +5. Prod. ha
Siste 3m og neste 6m. Skala -5 to +5. Prod. ha
5
10
5
10
4
8
4
8
3
6
3
6
2
4
2
4
1
2
1
2
0
0
0
0
-1
-2
-1
-2
-2
-4
-2
-4
-3
Jul-04
Jul-06
Oljelev.
Jul-08
Jul-10
B/A
Hjemmeind.
Kilde: Norges Bank/DNB Markets
Jul-12
-6
Jul-14
Eksportind.
-3
Jul-04
Jul-06
Jul-08
Varehandel
Kilde: Norges Bank/DNB Markets
Jul-10
Tj.yting bedrifter
Jul-12
-6
Jul-14
Pers. tj.yting
Ingen tegn til flaskehalser og kostnadspress
Sysselsettingen har flatet ut, ledigheten vil stige
Arbeidsmarked
Reg.nettverk: Kapasitetsproblemer?
Prosentandeler
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Feb-04 Feb-06 Feb-08 Feb-10 Feb-12 Feb-14
Vanskelig å møte økt etterspørsel
Prod. begrenset av arbeidskraftstilgang
Kilde: Norges Bank/DNB Markets
2650
1000 personer. Sesongjustert
120
2600
110
2550
100
2500
90
2450
80
2400
70
2350
60
2300
50
2250
40
May-04 May-06 May-08 May-10 May-12 May-14
Sysselsatte
Registrert helt ledige+tiltak (ha)
Kilde: Thomsen Datastream/NAV/DNB Markets
Norges Bank: Utsetter rentehopp til høsten 2015
Hvorfor ikke rentekutt, med utsikter til inflasjon under målet?
Styringsrenter
6
Faktisk/prognose 7.mai 2014
5
4
3
2
1
0
May-07
May-09
May-11
May-13
USA
UK
Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
May-15
Japan
Sverige
May-17
ØMU
Norge
Gjeldsbyrde bekymrer
Rentebetalingene opp til 10% av disp. inntekt, tross beskjeden renteoppgang
Husholdningene
Prosent av disponibel inntekt
20
250
16
200
12
150
8
100
4
50
0
1980
0
1985
1990
1995
2000
Rentebelastning
Kilde: Statistisk
sentralbyrå/DNB Markets
2005
2010
2015
Gjeldsandel (ha)
Sparelysten har økt, og den har kommet for å bli!
Rekordhøy gjeld vil hindre tilløp til kjøpefest
Sparerate, husholdninger, %
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
1990
1995
2000
x utbytte
Kilde: Statistisk sentralbyrå/DNB Markets
2005
2010
2015
x utbytte og pensjonspremie
Boligprisfall i høst et blaff, nedgang fra neste år
-4½% de neste to årene, som følge av høyere ledighet og høyere renter
Bruktboligpriser
Prosentvis endring år/år
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Faktisk
Kilde: EFF/NEF/Econ Pöyry/Finn.no/DNB
2010
Modell
Markets
2015
Motvekter: Svakere krone og oppsving ute…
Men norske eksportører vil fortsatt tape markedsandeler
Norske kroner
8.6
8.4
95
Sterkere krone
93
8.2
91
8.0
7.8
89
7.6
87
7.4
85
7.2
7.0
May-10
May-11
May-12
EURNOK
Kilde: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
May-13
I-44 (ha)
83
May-14
…og impulser fra finanspolitikken
Vi venter 15 mrd i skattekutt neste år
Oljefond og oljepengebruk
Mrd 2014-kroner
28 0
24 0
20 0
16 0
12 0
80
40
0
20 01
20 04
20 07
Faktisk
Kilde: Finansdepartement et,
20 10
20 13
20 16
NB15?
NB2014 & TP2014/DNB Markets
20 19
4%
2014-2016: Myk landing
Fastlandsvekst i underkant av 2%. Under pari for Norge, men langt fra krise
Norge: Etterspørselskomp onenter
2008Q1=100. 3-kvartalers glidende snitt
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
Q1 2008 Q1 2010 Q1 2012 Q1 2014 Q1 2016
Priv. konsum
Nær.inv.
Off. kons
Boliginv.
Source: Thomson Datastream/DNB Markets
Oljei nv.
Trad.eksport
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