EU BEEF MARKET Istanbul, Turkey By Jean-Luc Mériaux Secretary General CONTENT • • • • • • • UECBV Introduction Production Price Trade (Imports & Exports) EU Beef Trade with Turkey Future Outlook Challenges What is the UECBV ? UECBV : European Livestock and Meat Trades Union. It represents the national federations of the: • livestock traders • livestock markets • meat industry: slaughterhouses, cutting and preparation plants • wholesale meat traders • international meat traders UECBV focuses on cattle, beef / horses, horsemeat / sheep and goats, sheep and goat meat / pigs, pork. What is the UECBV ? Today, UECBV represents 56 associations out of : • 22 EU Member States as well as certain EFTA countries and EU candidate countries (Croatia, Turkey). • Other countries, EU trade partners in the meat sector, are also associated to the UECBV (Japan, Russia) • In total, some 20,000 firms of all sizes and over 230,000 jobs are represented within the UECBV through its national member federations. PRODUCTION PRODUCTION – Decline due to milk cattle reduction Cheptel de vaches UE-27 27 500 25 000 22 500 1 000 têtes 20 000 17 500 15 000 Milk Cows: -13% in a decade 20,4 Mio 12 500 10 000 7 500 5 000 Breeding cows: -0,5% in a decade 12,2 Mio 2 500 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: GEB-Institut de l’Elevage selon EUROSTAT PRODUCTION – Reduction of breeding cattle in the EU Cheptel allaitant en UE en 2010 (en 1 000 têtes) 2 247 France 4 097 495 Espagne Royaume-Uni Irlande 707 Allemagne Belgique 1 050 Autres 1 660 1 920 Source: GEB-Institut de l’Elevage selon EUROSTAT PRODUCTION – Historic Overview in EU Beef & Veal Production (Slaughtering) - Tonnes 800 800 EU12 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 2010 Source : EStat-Newcronos 2011 2012 Apr 1.000 Tonnes 1.000 Tonnes EU15 PRODUCTION: Various animals – Per Country analysis Source : EStat Newcronos 1000 TONNES : Jan-Apr 11 / Jan-Apr 12 500 Cows 400 Steers Bulls 300 Heifers 200 YBov 100 Calves 0 B E B G C Z D K D E E E I E E L E S F R I T C Y L V L T L U H U M T N L A T P L P T R O S I S K F I S E U K PRICE PRICE: Carcasses 400 A R3 350 C R3 300 D O3 250 E R3 200 Last Update : Week 27 - 2012 Source : Member States 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 PRICE LIVE Bovines: EU evolution Male store cattle (6-12 months; ≤ 300 kg – €/100 kg live weight) 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200 BROUT Source : Member States W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 2005-2009 Avg Price in week 27 : 268,96 % change y/y : + 27,7% W21 W25 2010 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 2011 Average price in juin 2012 : > Wk.27-2012 W49 2012 268,58 % change y/y : + 26,6% W53 TRADE TRADE: EU Imports – Beef and Live Animals Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe) Origins Brazil 2008 tonnes 2009 % tonnes 2010 % tonnes 2011 % tonnes Jan-May 12 % tonnes % Compared to Jan-May 11 171 454 43.4% 149 007 34.6% 144 791 38.2% 125 708 38.9% 47 963 39.1% - 5.8% Argentina 92 924 23.5% 122 494 28.4% 79 487 21.0% 62 517 19.4% 22 221 18.1% - 20.3% Uruguay 66 402 16.8% 79 144 18.4% 66 156 17.5% 51 217 15.9% 22 180 18.1% - 9.8% USA 6 547 1.7% 9 609 2.2% 15 290 4.0% 22 914 7.1% 8 092 6.6% + 1.9% Australia 12 957 3.3% 16 937 3.9% 13 628 3.6% 18 017 5.6% 7 817 6.4% + 26.8% New Zealand 12 455 3.2% 15 783 3.7% 13 669 3.6% 15 387 4.8% 7 082 5.8% + 4.4% Namibia 10 348 2.6% 12 457 2.9% 13 571 3.6% 8 975 2.8% 3 339 2.7% + 58.2% Switzerland 2 919 0.7% 4 394 1.0% 4 450 1.2% 5 662 1.8% 1 801 1.5% - 28.2% Chile 2 550 0.6% 3 158 0.7% 2 441 0.6% 2 253 0.7% 713 0.6% + 57.1% Serbia 1 784 0.5% 990 0.2% 1 127 0.3% 785 0.2% 235 0.2% - 24.0% 10 395 2.6% 11 452 2.7% 15 763 4.2% 980 0.3% 0 0.0% - 81.3% Botswana EXTRA EU 25/27395 063 % change 431 182 378 954 322 849 122 772 + 9% - 12% - 15% - 8.3% TRADE: EU Exports – Beef and Live Animals EU exports of beef and live animals (1): Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe) 2008 Destinations tonnes 2009 % tonnes 2010 % % tonnes Jan-May 12 % tonnes % Compared to Jan-May 11 Turkey 204 0.1% Russia 102 347 35.1% Croatia 19 917 6.8% 25 126 10.1% 23 159 4.8% 24 969 3.9% 8 995 4.5% Sw itzerland 25 968 8.9% 19 072 7.7% 22 340 4.6% 26 431 4.2% 7 330 3.6% - 39.6% 5 619 1.9% 7 838 3.1% 33 774 7.0% 22 568 3.6% 6 921 3.4% - 28.7% 1 689 0.6% 6 681 2.7% 16 151 3.3% 17 970 2.8% 126 887 43.5% 125 591 50.4% 168 757 1.1% 237 927 37.5% 4 833 2.4% - 49.5% 86 250 42.9% - 4.5% Lebanon Algeria Other Destinations EXTRA EU 25/27 291 601 % change 571 0.2% tonnes 2011 70 370 14.5% 166 737 26.2% 43 107 21.4% - 51.2% 50 881 20.4% 135 762 28.0% 138 635 21.8% 35 579 17.7% - 36.8% 249 165 485 166 635 236 201 229 - 15% + 95% + 31% - 26.3% - 8.9% TRADE: EU Exports – Beef and Live Animals Trade figures (COMEXT) EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal (Tonnes cwe) EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal (1000 EUR) 837 733 300 000 273 003 900 000 800 000 250 000 258 950 201 229 627 260 600 000 150 000 114 822 56 282 100 000 Tonnes cw 200 000 86 250 256 611 127 767 50 000 Jan-May 10 Turkey Hong Kong Other destinations 98 579 341 416 171 034 43 107 25 912 0 Jan-May 11 Russia Switzerland 400 000 300 000 157 198 88 333 Jan-May 12 Ghana Croatia 500 000 279 241 64 369 35 579 700 000 50 969 2 205 Jan-May 10 Turkey Hong Kong Other destinations 200 000 100 000 0 Jan-May 11 Russia Switzerland Jan-May 12 Ghana Croatia 1,000 EUR 90 293 Aug 09 Jul 09 Jun 09 May 09 Apr 09 Mar 09 Feb 09 Jan 09 YEMCo 10th birthday celebration – 26.03.2011 Dublin, Ireland 3 112 2 760 2 699 2 611 . . . . . 7 584 7 104 . 3 566 . . . . . . 4 437 3 348 . . . . 4 892 2 728 . 3 980 . . . 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 Tonnes CWE . . 6 753 . . 6 231 . 5 413 . 6 617 6 601 . 6 158 4 886 . 4 112 5 028 . 5 418 5 135 5 070 . . . 5 474 3 969 . 1 876 . 3 183 . . 5 829 5 329 3 804 9 637 1 929 . . 5 851 . 3 953 2 432 6 552 . . . . . . . 5 550 2 989 2 816 3 834 . . . . 3 565 5 789 . 2 511 3 399 2 933 Feb 12 2 389 Jan 12 Dec 11 Nov 11 Oct 11 Sep 11 Aug 11 Jul 11 Jun 11 May 11 Apr 11 Mar 11 Feb 11 2 057 Jan 11 Dec 10 Nov 10 2 259 Oct 10 Sep 10 2 014 Aug 10 Jul 10 Jun 10 . . . . . 4 328 4 374 3 004 2 684 5 213 3 677 . . . . 7 357 6 038 . Other 2 111 . . Lebanon May 10 . . Algeria Apr 10 . . 5 005 4 127 4 597 3 458 3 097 . 4 251 4 099 . Turkey Mar 10 Feb 10 Jan 10 Dec 09 Nov 09 Oct 09 Sep 09 . 4 040 3 607 2 956 TRADE: EU Exports to Turkey – Live Animals EU Exports of LIVE Bovine Animals (Source COMEXT - Tonnes cwe) 20 000 18 000 16 000 14 000 12 000 TRADE: Trade balance of beef and live animals 1.400 1.263 IMPORTS 1.171 1.120 EXPORTS 1.200 1.028 1.000 825 800 e T onn 635 598 598 491 452 446 403 401 436 429 529 513 481 455 565 556 600 513 485 398 395 431 379 352 292 400 323 292 249 248 157 200 96 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 JanApr 12 10 00 736 EU BEEF TRADE TO TURKEY TRADE: EU Exports to Turkey –Live cattle & Meat Trade figures (COMEXT data) tonnes cwe 40.000 Fresh Bovine "Compensated" quarters Fresh Bovine (un)-separated Hindquarters Live Animals Fresh Bovine (un)-separated Forequarters Frozen Bovine "Compensated" quarters TOTAL 35.000 30.000 25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 avr 12 mars 12 févr 12 janv 12 déc 11 nov 11 oct 11 sept 11 août 11 juil 11 juin 11 mai 11 avr 11 mars 11 févr 11 janv 11 déc 10 nov 10 oct 10 sept 10 août 10 juil 10 juin 10 mai 10 avr 10 mars 10 févr 10 janv 10 0 TRADE: Turkish imports of EU beef (x1000 t. cwe.) 1 000 téc 30 Importations turques de viande bovine 25 20 15 Autres Italie Autriche 10 5 France Allemagne Pologne 0 Source: Turkstat Imports in May: 1,200 t cwe (-62% /April). Only Poland continues to deliver. Average price slightly up € 3.03 per kg. TRADE: Turkish imports of live bovine animals 160-300kg 1000 têtes 50 Importations turques de bovins de 160-300 kg 45 40 35 Autres 30 Mexique 25 Australie 20 Uruguay 15 Hongrie 10 France 5 0 Source: Turkstat TRADE: Turkish imports of live male bovine animals >300kg 1000 têtes 50 Importations turques de mâles > 300 kg 45 40 35 Autres Mexique 30 Brésil 25 Australie 20 Uruguay 15 Hongrie 10 France 5 0 Source: Turkstat Opening of Turkish market to finished young bulls from France in early Sept 2011. FUTURE OUTLOOK OUTLOOK – Short Term Forcast – Production, Consumption, Prices 2009 EU.15 PRODUCTION ( 1000T ) 7 066 - 2,2% EU.15 CONSUMPTION ( 1000T ) 2010 7 273 + 2,9% 7 399 - 0,6% 2011 7 213 - 0,8% 7 493 + 1,3% 2012 7 155 - 0,8% 7 362 - 1,7% 2013 7 121 - 0,5% 7 262 - 1,4% 7 211 - 0,7% BALANCE - 333 - 220 - 149 - 108 - 90 EU.15 - CARCASS PRICES 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 ADULT MALE BOVINES ( €/100 kg ) 313,9 - 0,9% COWS ( €/100 kg ) Sources : EStat New Cronos, Member States 313,2 - 0,2% 226,8 - 5,3% 345,2 + 10,2% 230,4 + 1,6% 365,5 + 5,9% 265,1 + 15,1% 367,9 + 0,7% 288,6 + 8,9% 293,3 + 1,6% OUTLOOK - Prospects for beef/veal market in the EU 9.0 1.3 EU-15 EU-25 EU-27 Consumption 1.1 8.5 1.0 0.9 Production 7.5 7.0 0.8 0.6 Ending stocks 0.5 6.5 Meat imports 0.4 6.0 0.3 5.5 Meat exports 5.0 0.1 0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source DG AGRI Baseline for 2020 Trade, Stocks Production, Consumption 8.0 CHALLENGES Challenges Continuous de-stocking of the dairy herd- but milk quotas diseappear 2014/15 Limited domestic beef/ veal supply Constrained beef/veal consumption by economic situation Falling imports from Mercosur due to limited supply and sustained demand in Brazil From net importer to net exporter Challenge: CAP reform Growing demand in the Mediterranean countries Lessons to be learnt from the partnership with Turkey Thank you for your attention www.uecbv.eu info@uecbv.eu