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EU BEEF MARKET
Istanbul, Turkey
By Jean-Luc Mériaux
Secretary General
CONTENT
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
UECBV Introduction
Production
Price
Trade (Imports & Exports)
EU Beef Trade with Turkey
Future Outlook
Challenges
What is the UECBV ?
UECBV : European Livestock and Meat Trades Union.
It represents the national federations of the:
• livestock traders
• livestock markets
• meat industry: slaughterhouses, cutting and preparation plants
• wholesale meat traders
• international meat traders
UECBV focuses on cattle, beef / horses, horsemeat /
sheep and goats, sheep and goat meat / pigs, pork.
What is the UECBV ?
Today, UECBV represents 56
associations out of :
• 22 EU Member States as well as
certain EFTA countries and EU
candidate countries (Croatia,
Turkey).
• Other countries, EU trade
partners in the meat sector, are also
associated to the UECBV (Japan,
Russia)
• In total, some 20,000 firms
of all sizes and over
230,000 jobs are represented
within the UECBV through
its national member federations.
PRODUCTION
PRODUCTION – Decline due to milk cattle reduction
Cheptel de vaches UE-27
27 500
25 000
22 500
1 000 têtes
20 000
17 500
15 000
Milk Cows: -13% in a decade
20,4 Mio
12 500
10 000
7 500
5 000
Breeding cows: -0,5% in a decade
12,2 Mio
2 500
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: GEB-Institut de l’Elevage selon EUROSTAT
PRODUCTION – Reduction of breeding cattle in the EU
Cheptel allaitant en UE en 2010
(en 1 000 têtes)
2 247
France
4 097
495
Espagne
Royaume-Uni
Irlande
707
Allemagne
Belgique
1 050
Autres
1 660
1 920
Source: GEB-Institut de l’Elevage selon EUROSTAT
PRODUCTION – Historic Overview in EU
Beef & Veal Production (Slaughtering) - Tonnes
800
800
EU12
700
700
600
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
2010
Source : EStat-Newcronos
2011
2012
Apr
1.000 Tonnes
1.000 Tonnes
EU15
PRODUCTION: Various animals – Per Country analysis
Source : EStat Newcronos
1000 TONNES : Jan-Apr 11 / Jan-Apr 12
500
Cows
400
Steers
Bulls
300
Heifers
200
YBov
100
Calves
0
B E
B G
C Z
D K
D E
E E
I E
E L
E S
F R
I T
C Y
L V
L T
L U
H U
M T
N L
A T
P L
P T
R O
S I
S K
F I
S E
U K
PRICE
PRICE: Carcasses
400
A R3
350
C R3
300
D O3
250
E R3
200
Last Update : Week 27 - 2012
Source : Member States
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
PRICE LIVE Bovines: EU evolution

Male store cattle (6-12 months; ≤ 300 kg – €/100 kg live weight)
280
270
260
250
240
230
220
210
200
BROUT
Source : Member States
W1
W5
W9
W13
W17
2005-2009 Avg
Price in week 27 : 268,96
% change y/y : + 27,7%
W21
W25
2010
W29
W33
W37
W41
W45
2011
Average price in juin 2012 :
> Wk.27-2012
W49
2012
268,58
% change y/y : + 26,6%
W53
TRADE
TRADE: EU Imports – Beef and Live Animals
Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)
Origins
Brazil
2008
tonnes
2009
%
tonnes
2010
%
tonnes
2011
%
tonnes
Jan-May 12
%
tonnes
%
Compared
to Jan-May 11
171 454 43.4% 149 007 34.6% 144 791 38.2% 125 708 38.9% 47 963
39.1%
- 5.8%
Argentina
92 924 23.5% 122 494 28.4% 79 487 21.0% 62 517 19.4% 22 221
18.1%
- 20.3%
Uruguay
66 402 16.8% 79 144 18.4% 66 156 17.5% 51 217 15.9% 22 180
18.1%
- 9.8%
USA
6 547 1.7%
9 609 2.2% 15 290 4.0% 22 914 7.1%
8 092
6.6%
+ 1.9%
Australia
12 957 3.3% 16 937 3.9% 13 628 3.6% 18 017 5.6%
7 817
6.4%
+ 26.8%
New Zealand
12 455 3.2% 15 783 3.7% 13 669 3.6% 15 387 4.8%
7 082
5.8%
+ 4.4%
Namibia
10 348 2.6% 12 457 2.9% 13 571 3.6%
8 975 2.8%
3 339
2.7%
+ 58.2%
Switzerland
2 919 0.7%
4 394 1.0%
4 450 1.2%
5 662 1.8%
1 801
1.5%
- 28.2%
Chile
2 550 0.6%
3 158 0.7%
2 441 0.6%
2 253 0.7%
713
0.6%
+ 57.1%
Serbia
1 784 0.5%
990 0.2%
1 127 0.3%
785 0.2%
235
0.2%
- 24.0%
10 395 2.6% 11 452 2.7% 15 763 4.2%
980 0.3%
0
0.0%
- 81.3%
Botswana
EXTRA EU 25/27395 063
% change
431 182
378 954
322 849
122 772
+ 9%
- 12%
- 15%
- 8.3%
TRADE: EU Exports – Beef and Live Animals
EU exports of beef and live animals (1):
Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)
2008
Destinations
tonnes
2009
%
tonnes
2010
%
%
tonnes
Jan-May 12
%
tonnes
%
Compared
to Jan-May 11
Turkey
204 0.1%
Russia
102 347 35.1%
Croatia
19 917 6.8%
25 126 10.1%
23 159 4.8%
24 969 3.9%
8 995 4.5%
Sw itzerland
25 968 8.9%
19 072 7.7%
22 340 4.6%
26 431 4.2%
7 330 3.6% - 39.6%
5 619 1.9%
7 838 3.1%
33 774 7.0%
22 568 3.6%
6 921 3.4% - 28.7%
1 689 0.6%
6 681 2.7% 16 151 3.3% 17 970 2.8%
126 887 43.5% 125 591 50.4% 168 757 1.1% 237 927 37.5%
4 833 2.4% - 49.5%
86 250 42.9% - 4.5%
Lebanon
Algeria
Other Destinations
EXTRA EU 25/27 291 601
% change
571 0.2%
tonnes
2011
70 370 14.5% 166 737 26.2%
43 107 21.4% - 51.2%
50 881 20.4% 135 762 28.0% 138 635 21.8%
35 579 17.7% - 36.8%
249 165
485 166
635 236
201 229
- 15%
+ 95%
+ 31%
- 26.3%
- 8.9%
TRADE: EU Exports – Beef and Live Animals
Trade figures (COMEXT)
EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal (Tonnes cwe)
EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal (1000 EUR)
837 733
300 000
273 003
900 000
800 000
250 000
258 950
201 229
627 260
600 000
150 000
114 822
56 282
100 000
Tonnes cw
200 000
86 250
256 611
127 767
50 000
Jan-May 10
Turkey
Hong Kong
Other destinations
98 579
341 416
171 034
43 107
25 912
0
Jan-May 11
Russia
Switzerland
400 000
300 000
157 198
88 333
Jan-May 12
Ghana
Croatia
500 000
279 241
64 369
35 579
700 000
50 969
2 205
Jan-May 10
Turkey
Hong Kong
Other destinations
200 000
100 000
0
Jan-May 11
Russia
Switzerland
Jan-May 12
Ghana
Croatia
1,000 EUR
90 293
Aug 09
Jul 09
Jun 09
May 09
Apr 09
Mar 09
Feb 09
Jan 09
YEMCo 10th birthday celebration – 26.03.2011 Dublin, Ireland
3 112
2 760
2 699
2 611
.
.
.
.
.
7 584
7 104
.
3 566
.
.
.
.
.
.
4 437
3 348
.
.
.
.
4 892
2 728
.
3 980
.
.
.
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
Tonnes CWE
.
.
6 753
.
.
6 231
.
5 413
.
6 617
6 601
.
6 158
4 886
.
4 112
5 028
.
5 418
5 135
5 070
.
.
.
5 474
3 969
.
1 876
.
3 183
.
.
5 829
5 329
3 804
9 637
1 929
.
.
5 851
.
3 953
2 432
6 552
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
5 550
2 989
2 816
3 834
.
.
.
.
3 565
5 789
.
2 511
3 399
2 933
Feb 12 2 389
Jan 12
Dec 11
Nov 11
Oct 11
Sep 11
Aug 11
Jul 11
Jun 11
May 11
Apr 11
Mar 11
Feb 11 2 057
Jan 11
Dec 10
Nov 10 2 259
Oct 10
Sep 10 2 014
Aug 10
Jul 10
Jun 10
.
.
.
.
.
4 328
4 374
3 004
2 684
5 213
3 677
.
.
.
.
7 357
6 038
.
Other
2 111
.
.
Lebanon
May 10
.
.
Algeria
Apr 10
.
.
5 005
4 127
4 597
3 458
3 097
.
4 251
4 099
.
Turkey
Mar 10
Feb 10
Jan 10
Dec 09
Nov 09
Oct 09
Sep 09
.
4 040
3 607
2 956
TRADE: EU Exports to Turkey – Live Animals
EU Exports of LIVE Bovine Animals
(Source COMEXT - Tonnes cwe)
20 000
18 000
16 000
14 000
12 000
TRADE: Trade balance of beef and live animals
1.400
1.263
IMPORTS
1.171
1.120
EXPORTS
1.200
1.028
1.000
825
800
e
T onn
635
598
598
491
452
446
403
401
436
429
529
513
481
455
565
556
600
513
485
398
395
431
379
352
292
400
323
292
249
248
157
200
96
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
JanApr
12
10 00
736
EU BEEF TRADE TO TURKEY
TRADE: EU Exports to Turkey –Live cattle & Meat
Trade figures (COMEXT data) tonnes cwe
40.000
Fresh Bovine "Compensated" quarters
Fresh Bovine (un)-separated Hindquarters
Live Animals
Fresh Bovine (un)-separated Forequarters
Frozen Bovine "Compensated" quarters
TOTAL
35.000
30.000
25.000
20.000
15.000
10.000
5.000
avr 12
mars 12
févr 12
janv 12
déc 11
nov 11
oct 11
sept 11
août 11
juil 11
juin 11
mai 11
avr 11
mars 11
févr 11
janv 11
déc 10
nov 10
oct 10
sept 10
août 10
juil 10
juin 10
mai 10
avr 10
mars 10
févr 10
janv 10
0
TRADE: Turkish imports of EU beef (x1000 t. cwe.)
1 000 téc
30
Importations turques de viande bovine
25
20
15
Autres
Italie
Autriche
10
5
France
Allemagne
Pologne
0
Source: Turkstat
Imports in May: 1,200 t cwe (-62% /April). Only Poland continues to deliver.
Average price slightly up € 3.03 per kg.
TRADE: Turkish imports of live bovine animals 160-300kg
1000 têtes
50
Importations turques de bovins de 160-300 kg
45
40
35
Autres
30
Mexique
25
Australie
20
Uruguay
15
Hongrie
10
France
5
0
Source: Turkstat
TRADE: Turkish imports of live male bovine animals >300kg
1000 têtes
50
Importations turques de mâles > 300 kg
45
40
35
Autres
Mexique
30
Brésil
25
Australie
20
Uruguay
15
Hongrie
10
France
5
0
Source: Turkstat
Opening of Turkish market to finished young bulls from France in early Sept 2011.
FUTURE OUTLOOK
OUTLOOK – Short Term Forcast – Production, Consumption, Prices
2009
EU.15 PRODUCTION
( 1000T )
7 066
- 2,2%
EU.15 CONSUMPTION
( 1000T )
2010
7 273
+ 2,9%
7 399
- 0,6%
2011
7 213
- 0,8%
7 493
+ 1,3%
2012
7 155
- 0,8%
7 362
- 1,7%
2013
7 121
- 0,5%
7 262
- 1,4%
7 211
- 0,7%
BALANCE
- 333
- 220
- 149
- 108
- 90
EU.15 - CARCASS PRICES
2009
2010
2011
2012
2012
ADULT MALE BOVINES
( €/100 kg )
313,9
- 0,9%
COWS
( €/100 kg )
Sources : EStat New Cronos, Member States
313,2
- 0,2%
226,8
- 5,3%
345,2
+ 10,2%
230,4
+ 1,6%
365,5
+ 5,9%
265,1
+ 15,1%
367,9
+ 0,7%
288,6
+ 8,9%
293,3
+ 1,6%
OUTLOOK - Prospects for beef/veal market in the EU
9.0
1.3
EU-15
EU-25
EU-27
Consumption
1.1
8.5
1.0
0.9
Production
7.5
7.0
0.8
0.6
Ending stocks
0.5
6.5
Meat imports
0.4
6.0
0.3
5.5
Meat exports
5.0
0.1
0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source DG AGRI Baseline for 2020
Trade, Stocks
Production, Consumption
8.0
CHALLENGES
Challenges








Continuous de-stocking of the dairy herd- but milk
quotas diseappear 2014/15
Limited domestic beef/ veal supply
Constrained beef/veal consumption by economic
situation
Falling imports from Mercosur due to limited supply
and sustained demand in Brazil
From net importer to net exporter
Challenge: CAP reform
Growing demand in the Mediterranean countries
Lessons to be learnt from the partnership with Turkey
Thank you for your attention
www.uecbv.eu
[email protected]
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