Beef Market & Supply Prospects
8th January 2009
Mark Zieg, Bord Bia
Agenda
• Cattle Supply ’09 & Availability ‘10
• Distribution of Exports
• Review of UK & Continental Markets
• Imports into EU
Weekly finished cattle
supplies (head)
Total Supplies 60,000 head or 3.8% Lower
Irish Cattle Prices 2009
Irish steer prices (cent/kg dw excluding VAT)
320
300
U3
R3
O3
280
260
240
Jan Jan Feb Apr May May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Prospects for 2010
supplies
•
Availability influenced by:
– Carry forward into spring of 2010
– Live exports 2008/early 2009
– Calf registrations 2008
– Producer decisions
Factors affecting
Steer availability 2010
•
•
•
Factors boosting supplies
– Carry forward from 2009
– Lower live exports in 2008
Factors reducing supplies
– Lower calf registrations
– Stronger exports of weanling/stores in 2009
Finished exports to NI
15,000
40,000
 55,000 hd
8,000
20,000
 28,000 hd
Similar
Factors Affecting
Heifer Availability 2010
•
•
•
Factors boosting supplies
– Heifers carried forward into 2010
– Lower live exports in 2008
Factors reducing supplies
– Lower calf registrations
– Stronger exports of weanling/stores in 2009
Finished exports to NI
7,000
10,000
 20,000 hd
8,000
5,000
13,000 hd
Similar
Export Beef Distribution
(‘000 tonnes)
2007
2008
2009
TOTAL
523
483
462
UK
278
261
245
Continental EU
239
217
215
France
Italy
Holland
Scandinavia
56
48
47
42
51
45
42
44
49
47
43
39
Spain
18
13
15
Portugal
11
10
10
Other EU
17
12
12
International
6
5
2
of which:
-11%
+2%
-6%
-10%
+4%
GB Price Sterling
Weighted 2009 EU R3 male vs Irish R3 (c/kg dw excl. VAT)
340
320
300
Ireland
EU-15
280
GB
260
240
Jan
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Household Beef
Purchases 2009
% change Jan -Sept
UK
• Recovery in production in 2009 driven by young bulls
• Consumer demand stable for 2010
• Exports to moderate due to lower cow beef volumes
2007
2008
2009
2010
882
862
862
854
- Prime beef
745
694
709
706
- Cow beef
136
167
152
147
446
282
265
280
267
282
265
280
Meat exports (000 tonnes cwe)
77
101
104
102
Consumption (000 tonnes cwe)
1,251
1,043
1,023
1,032
Net production (000 tonnes cwe)
Meat imports (000 tonnes cwe)
- Chilled/frozen
Italy
• Recovery in production in 2009 with imports of live cattle up 5%
• Consumer demand 2% lower in 2009
• Demand and prices likely to remain under pressure in 2010
2007
2008
2009
2010
1,127
1,059
1,054
1,070
693
633
636
655
Meat imports (000 tonnes
cwe)
473
461
450
446
Consumption (000 tonnes
cwe)
1,462
1,367
1,358
1,366
Net production (000 tonnes
cwe)
- Male beef
France
• Higher cow production in 2009 but male beef numbers 9% lower
• Slow improvement in economy to ease consumption decline?
• Lower production of male cattle likely in 2010
2007
2008
2009
2010
1,532
1,518
1,505
1,466
- Female beef
768
763
804
798
- Male beef
545
539
492
468
Meat imports (000 tonnes cwe)
411
402
392
400
Meat exports (000 tonnes cwe)
272
275
265
250
Consumption (000 tonnes cwe)
1,671
1,645
1,632
1,616
Net production (000 tonnes cwe)
EU Beef Balance

Consumption in terms of volume and expenditure back in 2009

Slight decrease in availability of EU beef likely for 2010

Some increase in imports in 2010
Net production (000 tonnes cwe)
Meat imports (000 tonnes cwe)
- Chilled/frozen
Meat exports (000 tonnes cwe)
Consumption (000 tonnes cwe)
- Per capita
2007
2008
2009
2010
8,204
8,090
7,950
7,880
545
383
388
405
390
244
264
280
116
163
142
150
8,633
8,310
8,196
8,135
17.4
16.7
16.4
16.3
World Beef Exports
3,000
2,500
2,000
2007
1,500
2008
2009
1,000
2010
500
0
Argentina
Brazil
Uruguay
United States
Australia
Other Beef Markets
•
Netherlands
– Production increased in 2009 17%
– Imports 5% slightly lower for EU beef, 10% lower for S. American:
– Import levels to increase 9% in 2010
•
Sweden
– Swedish prime beef production increased 10% in 2009
– Imports decreased 13%
– Import demand to increase slightly in 2010
•
Germany
-
Production decreased 2% in 2009
Imports increased 15%
Import demand to moderate but increase 3% in 2010
Summary
•
Irish supplies to show some recovery in 2010
•
European production to decrease slightly
•
Lower International Imports
•
Slow economic recovery in 2010
•
Modest recovery in consumer demand