Chicago Executive Briefing Prepared for RCEC September 18, 2014 National Economy Job Growth Rank State Dallas/Fort Worth Top Ten MSA’s Ranked by Annual Job Growth Total Employed 3,196,500 Annual Change 113,100 Percent Change 3.7% SF Permit Change 1,467 Los Angeles 5,671,600 111,900 2.0% 0 New York 8,839,400 111,200 1.3% 3,070 Houston 2,883,000 93,300 3.3% 3,889 Miami 2,417,900 67,900 2.9% 422 Atlanta 2,465,200 59,400 2.5% 3,243 San Francisco 2,152,400 48,000 2.3% -43 Seattle 1,825,100 40,600 2.3% -409 Orlando 1,099,800 36,100 3.4% 1,389 Denver 1,329,000 34,800 2.7% 1,007 Chicago @ #20 with 24,300 Net New Jobs, UP 0.5% 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrosearch USA National Economy Home Ownership Rate - Quarterly Trend 75.0% 74.0% 73.0% 72.0% 71.0% US Rate Midwest Rate 70.0% 69.0% 68.0% 67.0% 66.0% 65.0% 64.0% 63.0% 2q94 2q96 2q98 2Q14 2q00 2q02 2q04 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 2q06 2q08 2q10 2q12 2q14 Source: US Census Bureau National Economy Housing Market State Houston Top Ten MSA’s Ranked by Single Family Permits SF Permits 35,451 Annual Change 3,889 Percent Change 12.3% Job Growth 93,300 Dallas/Fort Worth 20,995 1,467 7.5% 113,100 Atlanta 15,158 3,243 27.2% 59,400 Washington DC 13,257 1 0.0% 6,000 Phoenix 12,121 -283 -2.3% 28,300 New York 10,527 3,070 41.2% 111,200 Austin 10,082 1,619 19.1% 31,000 Orlando 9,697 1,389 16.7% 36,100 Charlotte 9,176 1,310 16.7% 21,400 Seattle 8,404 -409 -4.6% 41,600 Chicago @ #14 with 7,507 SF Permits, UP 17.6% 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrosearch USA National Economy Housing Market State New York Top Ten MSA’s Ranked by Multi Family Permits MF Permits 33,358 Annual Change 11,122 Percent Change 50.0% Job Growth 111,200 Dallas/Fort Worth 21,256 6,733 46.4% 113,100 Houston 19,168 2,144 12.6% 93,300 Miami 11,212 1,535 15.9% 67,900 Seattle 11,071 1,911 20.9% 40,600 Austin 10,081 -1,756 -14.8% 31,000 Washington DC 9,873 158 1.6% 6,000 Atlanta 9,279 2,597 38.9% 59,400 Denver 7,791 233 3.1% 34,800 Chicago 7,140 2,915 69.0% 24,300 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrosearch USA The Local Market Chicagoland Market Chicagoland Region - Year by Year Jobs Gained & Lost 150,000 < - - - - - - - - - - - - - 322,400 Net New Jobs - - - - - - - - - - - - - > 100,000 50,000 0 522,500 Jobs 237,100 Jobs 168,300 Jobs -50,000 -100,000 196,700 Job s -150,000 337,300 Jobs -200,000 -250,000 1994 1996 2Q14 1998 2000 2002 2004 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 2006 2008 2010 2012 2q14 Source: Illinois Department of Employment Security Chicagoland Market Chicagoland Region - Labor Force & Total Employed 4,250,000 Labor Force Total Employed 4,125,000 4,000,000 3,875,000 3,750,000 3,625,000 3,500,000 3,375,000 3,250,000 Jun-94 Jun-96 Jun-98 2Q14 Jun-00 Jun-02 Jun-04 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Jun-06 Jun-08 Jun-10 Jun-12 Jun-14 Source: Illinois Department of Employment Security Chicagoland Market Chicagoland Region - Monthly Unemployment Rate 12% 11% 9% 8% 6% 5% 3% 2% 0% Jun-94 Jun-96 Jun-98 2Q14 Jun-00 Jun-02 Jun-04 Jun-06 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Jun-08 Jun-10 Jun-12 Jun-14 Source: Illinois Department of Employment Security Chicagoland Market Job Growth - Jobs Added/Lost by Job Sector During Past Year Mining & Construction Manufacturing 1,500 -7,200 -1.8% Trade/Trans/Utils 5,000 Information Financial Act -1,700 -3,600 1.7% Prof&Bus Services 1.3% Ed & Health Services Leisure&Hosp 13,000 8,600 3,200 Other Services 1,100 0.8% Government 4,400 -10,000 0 10,000 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 20,000 30,000 40,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, MetrosearchUSA Where People Work & Live WORK IN LIVE IN IL COUNTY TOTAL IN IA KY MO WI OTHER 14,818 7,604 6,403 811 0 0 0 30 737 44 2,581,745 2,076,152 417,288 88,305 55,748 451 452 938 8,402 22,314 De Kalb 40,909 30,216 10,486 207 26 12 0 0 66 103 Du Page 547,116 270,521 269,275 7,320 2,475 163 53 199 1,179 3,251 Grundy 17,038 10,177 6,529 332 116 10 0 9 0 197 207,042 126,502 79,138 1,402 262 94 11 32 426 577 27,058 14,583 12,337 138 37 0 0 0 44 57 Lake 353,007 232,703 95,562 24,742 593 160 46 162 20,925 2,856 Mc Henry 107,751 77,951 25,058 4,742 49 7 0 63 4,332 291 Will 227,156 145,604 75,768 5,784 4,435 44 48 87 177 993 Winnebago 134,742 108,675 20,261 5,806 56 67 46 61 5,137 439 4,258,382 3,100,688 1,018,105 139,589 63,797 1,008 656 1,581 41,425 31,122 COUNTY Boone Cook Kane Kendall TOTAL 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Illinois Department of Employment Security Median Income Trends Year United States Illinois Chicagoland 2005 $54,387 $59,113 $64,346 2006 $55,176 $59,225 $64,921 2007 $56,189 $59,936 $65,618 2008 $55,484 $59,970 $65,366 2009 $53,760 $57,769 $62,868 2010 $52,703 $55,784 $60,136 2011 $51,557 $54,346 $58,463 2012 $51,371 $55,137 $59,261 2013 2Q14 Released in September of 2014 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Illinois Department of Employment Security Chicagoland Resale Market Chicagoland Market SF Resale Housing Market - Annual Sales & Active Listings 70,000 21.0 60,000 18.0 50,000 15.0 40,000 12.0 30,000 9.0 20,000 6.0 10,000 3.0 0 Months Supply Sales/Listings 5.1 Month’s Supply of Inventory 0.0 2q09 4q09 2q10 4q10 2q11 Annual Sales 2Q14 4q11 2q12 Listings © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 4q12 2q13 4q13 2q14 Months Supply Source: Illinois Association of Realtors Chicagoland Market SF Resale Housing Market - Median Price Monthly Trend 250,000 Up 7.3% from June, 2013 Up 6.2% from Previous Month 225,000 200,000 175,000 150,000 125,000 100,000 Jun’10 Dec’10 2Q14 Jun’11 Dec’11 Jun’12 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Dec’12 Jun’13 Dec'13 Jun'14 Source: Illinois Association of Realtors Chicagoland Market Chicagoland Region - Median Sales Price, New vs. Resale 320,000 300,000 280,000 260,000 240,000 Resale New 220,000 200,000 180,000 160,000 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 2Q14 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Source: Metrostudy Analytics Chicagoland Market Foreclosure Transactions Region Cook County 2013 & 2014 Comparison YTD 2013 6,177 YTD 2014 2,059 Numeric Change -4,118 Percent Change -66.7% Will County 2,301 2,092 -209 -9.1% Lake County 1,334 1,006 -328 -24.6% DuPage County 1,319 686 -633 -48.0% Kane County 1,165 666 -499 -42.8% Lake, IN County 659 536 -123 -18.7% Winnebago County 677 180 -497 -73.4% McHenry County 664 305 -359 -54.1% Kendall County 322 191 -131 -40.7% DeKalb County 119 96 -23 -19.3% Grundy County 13 14 1 14,750 7,831 -6,919 TOTALS 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 7.7% -46.9% Source: Metroearch Property Analysis Chicagoland Market Foreclosure Transactions - 2013 & 2014 Comparison (No Cook) Region Will County YTD 2013 2,301 YTD 2014 2,092 Numeric Change -209 Percent Change -9.1% Lake County 1,334 1,006 -328 -24.6% DuPage County 1,319 686 -633 -48.0% Kane County 1,165 666 -499 -42.8% Lake, IN County 659 536 -123 -18.7% Winnebago County 677 180 -497 -73.4% McHenry County 664 305 -359 -54.1% Kendall County 322 191 -131 -40.7% DeKalb County 119 96 -23 -19.3% Grundy County 13 14 1 8,573 5,772 -2,801 TOTALS 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 7.7% -32.7% Source: Metroearch Property Analysis Metrostudy Residential Survey Chicago Market 27 5 ,0 ,00000 16 20 6,00 2,733 Total Subdivisions 1,498 Active Subdivisions 1,235 Future Subdivisions 307 Furnished Model Homes 225,000 1 615,000 0,7 ,05000 200,000 112,5 ,00000 15705,0 ,00000 4,000 ,0 111 50,02 ,5 000 000 40,000 12 3 ,0 185 ,,000000 30,000 100,000 67 ,05000 2,000 7 5 ,00000 20,0 45 ,00000 50,000 0000 1102,0 ,0 , 2 0 25,5 000 000 000 22 12 QQQ 000 444 222 QQQ 000 666 222 QQQ 000 888 222 QQQ 111 000 222 QQQ 111 222 222 QQQ 111 444 1,065 Finished & Vacant Homes 2,801 Homes Under Construction 48,969 Vacant Developed Lots 238,321 Future Lots 12-Counties & 24 Field Research Personnel 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy “Active” Subdivisions (VDL Inventory) 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy 151 Subdivisions >12 Starts Past Year 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy Chicagoland Market Annual New Home Starts & Closings - 12-Month Moving Total 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 Annual Starts Annual Closings 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2q94 2q96 2q98 2Q14 2q00 2q02 2q04 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 2q06 2q08 2q10 2q12 2q14 Source: Metrostudy Chicagoland Market Annual New Home Starts & Closings - 12-Month Moving Total 6,000 5,500 Annual Starts Annual Closings 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2q10 4q10 2Q14 2q11 4q11 2q12 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 4q12 2q13 4q13 2q14 Source: Metrostudy Chicagoland Market Year to Date New Home Starts - 2q13 & 2q14 by County 600 550 530 500 450 400 YTD 2013 447 YTD 2014 439 395 374 340 350 321 300 245 250 226 200 185 142 150 173 170 164 150 129 100 50 14 29 11 27 18 25 7 6 0 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy Housing Inventory Chicagoland Market Finished Vacant Inventory & Months Supply 6,000 6.0 Month’s Supply Finished Inventory 5,000 5.0 4,000 4.0 3,000 3.0 2,000 2.0 1,000 1.0 0 0.0 2q04 2q05 2q06 2Q14 2q07 2q08 2q09 2q10 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 2q11 2q12 2q13 2q14 Source: Metrostudy Chicagoland Market Finished Vacant Inventory - 2q13 & 2q14 Comparison by County 300 250 236 2q13 FIN 200 197 202 192 2q14 FIN 198 184 168 163 150 125 100 86 50 43 86 47 52 42 45 35 31 19 19 20 15 6 12 0 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy Chicagoland Market Under Construction Inventory 600 500 400 2q13 & 2q14 Comparison by County 525 503 439 502 485 2q13 U/C 383 2q14 U/C 369 351 300 253 235 200 187 199 157 130 100 154 116 64 65 26 32 0 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 15 26 19 16 Source: Metrostudy 181 Subdivisions with a Furnished Model 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy Lot Inventory Chicagoland Market Annual New Home Starts & Lot Inventory - Annual Trend 70,000 300 Starts Lots Months Supply 60,000 250 50,000 200 40,000 150 30,000 100 20,000 50 10,000 0 0 2q04 2q05 2q06 2Q14 2q07 2q08 2q09 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 2q10 2q11 2q12 2q13 2q14 Source: Metrostudy Chicagoland Market New Lot Deliveries - Lot Deliveries by Year 40,000 37,255 35,175 35,000 32,178 30,905 30,000 25,000 28,441 28,478 23,099 21,016 20,000 15,000 10,000 7,773 5,000 763 383 563 1,488 1,073 1,472 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2q14 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy Chicagoland Market Vacant Develop Lot Inventory 13,000 12,000 2q13 & 2q14 Comparison by County 11,968 1 1,442 11,000 10,000 2q13 Lot Inventory 2q14 Lot Inventory 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 6,031 6,035 5,647 5,828 5,447 5,626 5,000 4,349 4,190 4,000 3,987 3,754 3,000 3,268 3,138 3,081 2,000 2,946 2,517 2,515 2,072 2,048 1,000 1,624 1,570 876 0 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 877 Source: Metrostudy Chicagoland Market Vacant Develop Lot Inventory 500 1,554 1,024 1,076 649 Months of Supply by County 1,438 671 450 443 410 400 2q13 Supply 2q14 Supply 350 308 300 250 235 200 200 188 167 150 126 100 90 90 100 84 68 50 65 71 59 41 26 0 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy Chicagoland Market Dormant Subdivisions - Vacant Developed Lot Status Lots 48,969 Share 100% 35,701 73% Number of lots on the ground for single-family detached homes. 13,268 27% Number of lots on the ground for townhomes and duplex units. 30,044 61% Lots in communities with no starts activity during the past twelve months. 19,325 39% Lots in single-family detached communities with no activity. 10,719 22% Lots in attached product communities with no activity. 2,792 6% Lots in Cook County with no activity (95 subdivisions). 2,081 4% Lots in Kane County with no activity (62 subdivisions). 6,251 13% Lots in Will County with no activity (157 subdivisions). 5,495 11% Lots in the hands of the BIG builders. 43,474 89% Lots NOT in the hands of the BIG builders. 1,701 3% 2Q14 Comments Includes lots for both attached and detached housing. Lots in Joliet with no activity (31 subdivisions) © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy 369 Subs with 25 Lots & No Starts 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy Chicagoland Market Communities with No Activity City/Village Joliet Ranked by Lot Inventory Remaining No. of Subdivisions 30 Lots 1,701 Annual Resales 764 Median Price $125,000 Ann Foreclosure 1,557 Yorkville 27 1,465 204 $225,000 158 Rockford 36 1,080 1,077 $96,807 246 Manhattan 10 997 263 $200,000 62 Chicago 27 839 6,022 $210,000 1,252 Channahon 15 827 79 $190,000 58 Plainfield 16 817 963 $203,000 870 Oswego 7 654 348 $225,000 115 Woodstock 16 585 232 $167,000 58 Caledonia 2 580 40 $210,550 5 Frankfort 10 568 395 $289,000 221 Belvidere 12 497 232 $123,500 100 Beecher 14 489 44 $147,500 95 Matteson 9 483 115 $125,000 42 Loves Park 14 476 150 $132,000 72 McHenry 12 464 478 $158,000 181 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy Chicagoland Market Municipality Ranking City/Village Elgin Ranked by Annual New Home Starts Ann Starts 322 Ann Closings 264 INV 225 Mo. Supply 10.2 VDL 1,544 Mo. Supply 57.5 Naperville 315 255 245 11.5 743 28.3 St. John, IN 222 211 153 8.7 764 41.3 Crown Point, IN 183 188 118 7.5 657 43.1 Chicago 180 131 228 20.9 1,050 70.0 Huntley 169 156 104 8.0 797 56.6 New Lenox 167 142 122 10.3 785 56.4 Oswego 163 135 115 10.2 1,258 92.6 Pingree Grove 155 185 151 9.8 570 44.1 Plainfield 140 113 113 12.0 1,468 125.8 Aurora 137 150 87 7.0 667 58.4 Hampshire 118 111 100 10.8 533 54.2 Bolingbrook 106 103 56 6.5 252 28.5 Winfield, IN 96 95 59 7.5 249 31.1 Joliet 93 77 66 10.3 2,206 284.6 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy Chicagoland Market Community Ranking - Communities Ranked by Annual Starts Communities (Ann Starts) 1. Cambridge Lakes (155) 2. Talamore (141) 8 3. Lakewood Crossing (113) 2 3 4. Carillon Club/Naperville (110) 1 9 5. Bowes Creek (76) 7 5 6. Mill Creek (64) 6 7. Edgewater of Elgin (63) 8. Grand Dominion (60) 10 4 9. Highland Woods (60) 10. River Hills (59) 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy Chicagoland Market Builder Ranking Builder Name Ryland Homes Top Home Builders by 2014 Metrostudy Closings 1q14 70 2q14 159 3q14 - 4q14 - Total Closings 229 D.R. Horton 67 112 - - 179 M/I Homes 58 71 - - 129 Pulte 66 56 - - 122 K. Hovnanian Homes 46 60 - - 106 Orleans Homebuilders 18 37 - - 55 Lexington Homes 23 27 - - 50 William Ryan Homes 22 22 - - 44 Hartz Construction 27 13 - - 40 Olthof Homes 20 19 - - 39 Ryan Homes 17 19 - - 36 Toll Brothers 9 18 - - 27 Phillippe Builders 9 12 - - 21 Sho-Deen Homes 7 12 - - 19 BnA Homes 9 5 - - 14 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: Metrostudy 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Source: The Atlantic 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Chicagoland Market Chicagoland Region - Median Sales Price, New vs. Resale 320,000 300,000 280,000 260,000 240,000 Resale New 220,000 200,000 180,000 160,000 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 2Q14 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Source: Metrostudy Analytics Conclusions Concern over demographics, incomes & job growth Still a large gap between used & new home prices Housing inventory levels are low New lot development beginning to occur again Prices continue their upward trend More builders getting into the fray (much needed) More subdivisions beginning to show signs of life Maybe we just need be happier… 2Q14 © Copyright Metrostudy 2014 3Q10 2Q14 2014 © Copyright Metrostudy 2010 Thank You Chris Huecksteadt 847.241.6570 www.metrostudy.com