ECON 337: Agricultural Marketing Chad Hart Assistant Professor chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 Econ 337, Spring 2012 Margin Accounts A margin account is an account that traders maintain in the market to ensure contract performance. There are minimum limits on the size of the account. Crop Corn Soybeans Trader Type Hedger/Speculator Hedger/Speculator Initial $2,363 $3,375 Maintenance $1,750 $2,500 To trade, you must create a margin account with at least the “Initial” amount and maintain at least the “Maintenance” amount in the account at the end of each trading day. Econ 337, Spring 2012 Margin Calls Margin accounts are rebalanced each day Depending on the value of futures Settlement price If your futures are losing value, money is taken out of the margin account to cover the loss If the account value falls below the “Maintenance” level, you receive a margin call (a call to put additional money in your margin account) and the balance is brought back up to the Initial amount Econ 337, Spring 2012 Margin Example Let’s say I went short on May 2012 corn $6.5825/bushel on Jan. 11 Along with selling a corn futures contract, I have to establish a margin account and deposit $2,363 in it On Jan. 12, the May 2012 corn futures price moved to $6.1825/bushel Since I’ll be selling the futures contract later, this price move is in my favor Econ 337, Spring 2012 Margin Example I gained 40 cents per bushel and since the contract is for 5,000 bushels, that’s a gain of $2,000 At the end of the day (Jan. 12), $2000 is deposited into my margin account, raising the account balance to $4,363 Since $4,363 is greater than the “Maintenance” level, I will not receive a margin call Econ 337, Spring 2012 Margin Example #2 Let’s say, instead of going short, I went long on May 2012 corn $6.5825/bushel on Jan. 11 Along with buying a corn futures contract, I have to establish a margin account and deposit $2,363 in it On Jan. 12, the May 2012 corn futures price moved to $6.1825/bushel Since I’ll be selling back the futures contract later, this price move is not in my favor Econ 337, Spring 2012 Margin Example #2 I lost 40 cents per bushel and since the contract is for 5,000 bushels, that’s a loss of $2,000 At the end of the day (Jan. 12), $2,000 is to be taken from my margin account, lowering the account balance to $363 Since $363 is less than the “Maintenance” level, I will receive a margin call and be asked to deposit $2,000 more into the account or to close out the futures position The $2,000 brings the account balance back up to the initial requirement Econ 337, Spring 2012 Margin Example – Going Short Date Price Gain Margin Call Account Balance $2,363 1/6/12 $6.5075 1/9/12 $6.595 -$437.50 $1,925.50 1/10/12 $6.5925 +$12.50 $1,938 1/11/12 $6.5825 +$50 $1,988 1/12/12 $6.1825 +$2,000 $3,988 1/13/12 $6.065 +$587.50 $4,575.50 Econ 337, Spring 2012 Margin Example – Going Long Date Price Gain Margin Call Account Balance $2,363 1/6/12 $6.5075 1/9/12 $6.595 +$437.50 $2,800.50 1/10/12 $6.5925 -$12.50 $2,788 1/11/12 $6.5825 -$50 $2,738 1/12/12 $6.1825 -$2,000 1/13/12 $6.065 -$587.50 Econ 337, Spring 2012 $1,625 $2,363 $1,775.50 Market Participants Hedgers are willing to make or take physical delivery because they are producers or users of the commodity Use futures to protect against a price movement Cash and futures prices are highly correlated Hold counterbalancing positions in the two markets to manage the risk of price movement Econ 337, Spring 2012 Hedgers Farmers, livestock producers Merchandisers, elevators Food processors, feed manufacturers Exporters Importers What happens if futures market is restricted to only hedgers? Econ 337, Spring 2012 Market Participants Speculators have no use for the physical commodity They buy or sell in an attempt to profit from price movements Add liquidity to the market May be part of the general public, professional traders or investment managers Short-term – “day traders” Long-term – buy or sell and hold Econ 337, Spring 2012 Market Participants Brokers exercise trade for traders and are paid a flat fee called a commission Futures are a “zero sum game” Losers pay winners Brokers always get paid commission Econ 337, Spring 2012 Hedging Holding equal and opposite positions in the cash and futures markets The substitution of a futures contract for a later cash-market transaction Who can hedge? Farmers, merchandisers, elevators, processors, exporter/importers Econ 337, Spring 2012 Econ 337, Spring 2012 Cash Futures 12/3/2011 11/3/2011 10/3/2011 9/3/2011 8/3/2011 7/3/2011 6/3/2011 5/3/2011 4/3/2011 3/3/2011 2/3/2011 1/3/2011 $ per bushel 8.00 Cash vs. Futures Prices Iowa Corn in 2011 7.50 7.00 6.50 6.00 5.50 Short Hedgers Producers with a commodity to sell at some point in the future Are hurt by a price decline Sell the futures contract initially Buy the futures contract (offset) when they sell the physical commodity Econ 337, Spring 2012 Short Hedge Example A soybean producer will have 25,000 bushels to sell in November The short hedge is to protect the producer from falling prices between now and November Since the farmer is producing the soybeans, they are considered long in soybeans Econ 337, Spring 2012 Short Hedge Example To create an equal and opposite position, the producer would sell 5 November soybean futures contracts Each contract is for 5,000 bushels The farmer would short the futures, opposite their long from production As prices increase (decline), the futures position loses (gains) value Econ 337, Spring 2012 Short Hedge Expected Price Expected price = Futures prices when I place the hedge + Expected basis at delivery – Broker commission Econ 337, Spring 2012 Short Hedge Example As of Jan. 13, Nov. 2012 soybean futures Historical basis for Nov. Rough commission on trade Expected price ($ per bushel) 11.70 -0.30 -0.01 11.39 Come November, the producer is ready to sell soybeans Prices could be higher or lower Basis could be narrower or wider than the historical average Econ 337, Spring 2012 Prices Went Up, Hist. Basis In November, buy back futures at $14.00 per bushel Nov. 2012 soybean futures Actual basis for Nov. Local cash price Net value from futures ($ per bushel) 14.00 -0.30 13.70 -2.31 ($11.70 - $14.00 - $0.01) Net price Econ 337, Spring 2012 11.39 Prices Went Down, Hist. Basis In November, buy back futures at $10.00 per bushel Nov. 2012 soybean futures Actual basis for Nov. Local cash price Net value from futures ($ per bushel) 10.00 -0.30 9.70 +1.69 ($11.70 - $10.00 - $0.01) Net price Econ 337, Spring 2012 11.39 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 Futures Price ($ per bushel) Cash Price Econ 337, Spring 2012 Futures Return Net .0 0 14 .5 0 13 .0 0 13 .5 0 12 .0 0 12 .5 0 11 .0 0 11 .5 0 10 10 .0 0 Hedging Nov. 2012 Soybeans @ $11.70 9. 50 9. 00 Net Price ($ per bushel) Short Hedge Graph Prices Went Down, Basis Change In November, buy back futures at $10.00 per bushel Nov. 2012 soybean futures Actual basis for Nov. Local cash price Net value from futures ($ per bushel) 10.00 -0.10 9.90 +1.69 ($11.70 - $10.00 - $0.01) Net price Basis narrowed, net price improved Econ 337, Spring 2012 11.59 Long Hedgers Processors or feeders that plan to buy a commodity in the future Are hurt by a price increase Buy the futures initially Sell the futures contract (offset) when they buy the physical commodity Econ 337, Spring 2012 Long Hedge Example An ethanol plant will buy 50,000 bushels of corn in December The long hedge is to protect the ethanol plant from rising corn prices between now and December Since the plant is using the corn, they are considered short in corn Econ 337, Spring 2012 Long Hedge Example To create an equal and opposite position, the plant manager would buy 10 December corn futures contracts Each contract is for 5,000 bushels The plant manager would long the futures, opposite their short from usage As prices increase (decline), the futures position gains (loses) value Econ 337, Spring 2012 Long Hedge Expected Price Expected price = Futures prices when I place the hedge + Expected basis at delivery + Broker commission Econ 337, Spring 2012 Long Hedge Example As of Jan. 13, Dec. 2012 corn futures Historical basis for Dec. Rough commission on trade Expected local net price ($ per bushel) 5.55 -0.25 +0.01 5.31 Come December, the plant manager is ready to buy corn to process into ethanol Prices could be higher or lower Basis could be narrower or wider than the historical average Econ 337, Spring 2012 Prices Went Up, Hist. Basis In December, sell back futures at $6.00 per bushel Dec. 2012 corn futures Actual basis for Nov. Local cash price Less net value from futures -($6.00 - $5.55 - $0.01) Net cost of corn ($ per bushel) 6.00 -0.25 5.75 -0.44 5.31 Futures gained in value, reducing net cost of corn to the plant Econ 337, Spring 2012 Prices Went Down, Hist. Basis In December, sell back futures at $4.00 per bushel Dec. 2012 corn futures Actual basis for Nov. Local cash price Less net value from futures -($4.00 - $5.55 - $0.01) Net cost of corn ($ per bushel) 4.00 -0.25 3.75 +1.56 5.31 Futures lost value, increasing net cost of corn Econ 337, Spring 2012 Long Hedge Graph 8 Net Price ($ per bushel) Hedging Dec. 2012 Corn @ $5.55 6 4 2 0 -2 Futures Price ($ per bushel) Cash Price Econ 337, Spring 2012 Futures Return Net 8. 00 7. 50 7. 00 6. 50 6. 00 5. 50 5. 00 4. 50 4. 00 3. 50 3. 00 -4 Prices Went Down, Basis Change In December, sell back futures at $4.00 per bushel Dec. 2012 corn futures Actual basis for Dec. Local cash price Less net value from futures -($4.00 - $5.55 - $0.01) Net cost of corn ($ per bushel) 4.00 -0.10 3.90 +1.56 5.46 Basis narrowed, net cost of corn increased Econ 337, Spring 2012 Hedging Results In a hedge the net price will differ from expected price only by the amount that the actual basis differs from the expected basis. So basis estimation is critical to successful hedging. Narrowing basis, good for short hedgers, bad for long hedgers Widening basis, bad for short hedgers, good for long hedgers Econ 337, Spring 2012 Class web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Classes/econ337/ Spring2012/ Econ 337, Spring 2012