ECON 339X: Agricultural Marketing Chad Hart Assistant Professor chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 Econ 339X, Spring 2011 John Lawrence Professor jdlaw@iastate.edu 515-294-7801 Margin Accounts A margin account is an account that traders maintain in the market to ensure contract performance. There are minimum limits on the size of the account. Crop Corn Corn Soybeans Soybeans Trader Type Hedger Speculator Hedger Speculator Initial $1,500 $2,025 $3,250 $4,388 Maintenance $1,500 $1,500 $3,250 $3,250 To trade, you must create a margin account with at least the “Initial” amount and maintain at least the “Maintenance” amount in the account at the end of each trading day. Econ 339X, Spring 2011 Margin Calls Margin accounts are rebalanced each day Depending on the value of futures If your futures are losing value, money is taken out of the margin account to cover the loss If the account value falls below the “Maintenance” level, you receive a margin call (a call to put additional money in your margin account) If your futures position is gaining value, money is put into your margin account Econ 339X, Spring 2011 Margin Example Earlier, I went long on Dec. 2011 corn $5.48/bushel on 1/11/11 Let’s say I’m a farmer, so I am considered a hedger Along with buying a corn futures contract, I have to establish a margin account and deposit $1,500 in it On 1/12/11, the Dec. 2011 corn futures price moved to $5.60/bushel Since I’ll be selling the futures contract later, this price move is in my favor Econ 339X, Spring 2011 Margin Example I gained 12 cents per bushel and since the contract is for 5,000 bushels, that’s a gain of $600 At the end of the day (1/12/11), $600 is deposited into my margin account, raising the account balance to $2,100 Since $2,100 is greater than the “Maintenance” level, I will not receive a margin call Econ 339X, Spring 2011 Margin Example #2 Earlier, I also went short on Nov. 2011 soybeans $12.73/bushel on 1/11/11 Along with selling a soybean futures contract, I have to establish a margin account and deposit $3,250 in it On 1/12/11, the Nov. 2011 soybean futures price moved to $13.08/bushel Since I’ll be buying back the futures contract later, this price move is not in my favor Econ 339X, Spring 2011 Margin Example #2 I lost 35 cents per bushel and since the contract is for 5,000 bushels, that’s a loss of $1,750 At the end of the day (1/12/11), $1,750 is be taken from my margin account, lowering the account balance to $1,500 Since $1,500 is less than the “Maintenance” level, I will receive a margin call and be asked to deposit $1,750 more into the account or to close out the futures position The $1,750 brings the account balance back up to the initial requirement Econ 339X, Spring 2011 Margin Example #2 Date Price Gain Margin Call Account Balance $3,250 $1,750 $3,250 1/11/11 $12.73 1/12/11 $13.08 -$1,750 1/13/11 $13.00 +$400 $3,650 1/14/11 $13.05 -$250 $3,400 1/18/11 $13.10 -$250 Econ 339X, Spring 2011 $100 $3,250 Market Participants Hedgers are willing to make or take physical delivery because they are producers or users of the commodity Use futures to protect against a price movement Cash and futures prices are highly correlated Hold counterbalancing positions in the two markets to manage the risk of price movement Econ 339X, Spring 2011 Hedgers Farmers, livestock producers Merchandisers, elevators Food processors, feed manufacturers Exporters Importers What happens if futures market is restricted to only hedgers? Econ 339X, Spring 2011 Market Participants Speculators have no use for the physical commodity They buy or sell in an attempt to profit from price movements Add liquidity to the market May be part of the general public, professional traders or investment managers Short-term – “day traders” Long-term – buy or sell and hold Econ 339X, Spring 2011 Market Participants Brokers exercise trade for traders and are paid a flat fee called a commission Futures are a “zero sum game” Losers pay winners Brokers always get paid commission Econ 339X, Spring 2011 Hedging Holding equal and opposite positions in the cash and futures markets The substitution of a futures contract for a later cash-market transaction Who can hedge? Farmers, merchandisers, elevators, processors, exporter/importers Econ 339X, Spring 2011 Econ 339X, Spring 2011 Cash Futures 12/4/2010 11/4/2010 10/4/2010 9/4/2010 8/4/2010 7/4/2010 6/4/2010 5/4/2010 4/4/2010 6.00 3/4/2010 6.50 2/4/2010 1/4/2010 $ per bushel Cash vs. Futures Prices Iowa Corn in 2010 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 Short Hedgers Producers with a commodity to sell at some point in the future Are hurt by a price decline Sell the futures contract initially Buy the futures contract (offset) when they sell the physical commodity Econ 339X, Spring 2011 Short Hedge Example A soybean producer will have 25,000 bushels to sell in November The short hedge is to protect the producer from falling prices between now and November Since the farmer is producing the soybeans, they are considered long in soybeans Econ 339X, Spring 2011 Short Hedge Example To create an equal and opposite position, the producer would sell 5 November soybean futures contracts Each contract is for 5,000 bushels The farmer would short the futures, opposite their long from production As prices increase (decline), the futures position loses (gains) value Econ 339X, Spring 2011 Short Hedge Example As of Tuesday, Nov. 2011 soybean futures Historical basis for Nov. Rough commission on trade Expected local hedged price ($ per bushel) 12.73 -0.25 -0.01 12.47 Come November, the producer is ready to sell soybeans Prices could be higher or lower Basis could be narrower or wider than the historical average Econ 339X, Spring 2011 Prices Went Up, Hist. Basis In November, buy back futures at $14.00 per bushel Nov. 2011 soybean futures Actual basis for Nov. Local cash price Net value from futures ($ per bushel) 14.00 -0.25 13.75 -1.28 ($12.73 - $14.00 - $0.01) Net price Econ 339X, Spring 2011 12.47 Prices Went Down, Hist. Basis In November, buy back futures at $10.00 per bushel Nov. 2011 soybean futures Actual basis for Nov. Local cash price Net value from futures ($ per bushel) 10.00 -0.25 9.75 +2.72 ($12.73 - $10.00 - $0.01) Net price Econ 339X, Spring 2011 12.47 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 Futures Price ($ per bushel) Cash Price Econ 339X, Spring 2011 Futures Return Net 0 15 .0 0 14 .5 0 14 .0 0 13 .5 0 13 .0 0 12 .5 0 12 .0 0 11 .5 0 .0 11 .5 10 .0 10 0 Hedging Nov. 2011 Soybeans @ $12.73 0 Net Price ($ per bushel) Short Hedge Graph Prices Went Down, Basis Change In November, buy back futures at $10.00 per bushel Nov. 2011 soybean futures Actual basis for Nov. Local cash price Net value from futures ($ per bushel) 10.00 -0.10 9.90 +2.72 ($12.73 - $10.00 - $0.01) Net price Basis narrowed, net price improved Econ 339X, Spring 2011 12.62 Long Hedgers Processors or feeders that plan to buy a commodity in the future Are hurt by a price increase Buy the futures initially Sell the futures contract (offset) when they buy the physical commodity Econ 339X, Spring 2011 Long Hedge Example An ethanol plant will buy 50,000 bushels of corn in December The long hedge is to protect the ethanol plant from rising corn prices between now and December Since the plant is using the corn, they are considered short in corn Econ 339X, Spring 2011 Long Hedge Example To create an equal and opposite position, the plant manager would buy 10 December corn futures contracts Each contract is for 5,000 bushels The plant manager would long the futures, opposite their short from usage As prices increase (decline), the futures position gains (loses) value Econ 339X, Spring 2011 Long Hedge Example As of Tuesday, Dec. 2011 corn futures Historical basis for Dec. Rough commission on trade Expected local net price ($ per bushel) 5.48 -0.25 +0.01 5.24 Come December, the plant manager is ready to buy corn to process into ethanol Prices could be higher or lower Basis could be narrower or wider than the historical average Econ 339X, Spring 2011 Prices Went Up, Hist. Basis In December, sell back futures at $6.00 per bushel Dec. 2011 corn futures Actual basis for Nov. Local cash price Less net value from futures -($6.00 - $5.48 - $0.01) Net cost of corn ($ per bushel) 6.00 -0.25 5.75 -0.51 5.24 Futures gained in value, reducing net cost of corn to the plant Econ 339X, Spring 2011 Prices Went Down, Hist. Basis In December, sell back futures at $4.00 per bushel Dec. 2011 corn futures Actual basis for Nov. Local cash price Less net value from futures -($4.00 - $5.48 - $0.01) Net cost of corn ($ per bushel) 4.00 -0.25 3.75 +1.49 5.24 Futures lost value, increasing net cost of corn Econ 339X, Spring 2011 Long Hedge Graph 8 Net Price ($ per bushel) Hedging Dec. 2011 Corn @ $5.48 6 4 2 0 -2 Futures Price ($ per bushel) Cash Price Econ 339X, Spring 2011 Futures Return Net 00 8. 50 7. 00 7. 50 6. 00 6. 50 5. 00 5. 50 4. 00 4. 50 3. 3. 00 -4 Prices Went Down, Basis Change In December, sell back futures at $4.00 per bushel Dec. 2011 corn futures Actual basis for Dec. Local cash price Less net value from futures -($4.00 - $5.48 - $0.01) Net cost of corn ($ per bushel) 4.00 -0.10 3.90 +1.49 5.39 Basis narrowed, net cost of corn increased Econ 339X, Spring 2011 Hedging Results In a hedge the net price will differ from expected price only by the amount that the actual basis differs from the expected basis. So basis estimation is critical to successful hedging. Narrowing basis, good for short hedgers, bad for long hedgers Widening basis, bad for short hedgers, good for long hedgers Econ 339X, Spring 2011 Class web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Classes/econ339/ Spring2011/ Econ 339X, Spring 2011