Chapter 1 European stress index 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 2007 Chart 1:1. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Basis spread Stock market volatility Exchange market volatility Government bond spread Corporate bond spread Stress index Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank Prices of single-family houses and tenant-owned apartments Index, January 2008 = 100 Chart 1:2. Sources: Mäklarstatistik and Valueguard The credit gap in Sweden Per cent 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 80 Chart 1:3. 85 90 95 00 05 10 Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank Earnings before loan losses and loan losses in the four major banks Totalled over four quarters, SEK billion, fixed prices, March 2012 120 120 Profit before loan losses Loan losses 100 100 Main scenario loan losses FSR 2011:2 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 -20 -20 90 Chart 1:4. 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank Core Tier 1 capital ratios defined by Basel II December 2011, per cent 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Swedbank Handelsbanken UBS SEB Standard Ch. Danske Bank Nordea Barclays Lloyds TSB Credit Suisse RBS BBVA HSBC Intesa B. Popular Espana Santander Commerzbank BNP Deutsche Bank Erste Bank DnB NOR Societe Gen. Raiffeisen Int UniCredito Chart 1:5. Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank CET 1 capital ratios as defined by Basel III, initially and in the stress test Per cent 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2012 12 Kv 1 13 14 2012 12 Kv 1 Handelsbanken Chart 1:6. 13 Nordea 14 2012 12 Kv 1 13 SEB 14 2012 12 Kv 1 13 14 Swedbank Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank Swedish and foreign banks’ published levels of Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) Per cent, December 2011 0 50 100 150 200 Handelsbanken Bank van Lanschot Swedbank Nationwide Citigroup Standard Chartered SEB ING Bank Barclays Lloyds ABN Amro Chart 1:7. Sources: Bank reports and Liquidatum Bank assets in relation to GDP December 2010, per cent Chart 1:8. Sources: ECB, the European Commission, the Swiss National Bank and the Riksbank CET 1 capital ratios, Basel III Per cent Chart 1:9. Source: The Riksbank Risk weights on mortgages defined by Basel II Per cent Chart 1:10. Sources: National central banks and the Riksbank Countercyclical capital buffers Per cent 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 00 01 02 03 04 Handelsbanken Chart 1:11. 05 06 Nordea 07 SEB 08 09 10 11 Swedbank Sources: Bank reports, Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank The major Swedish banks’ liquidity buffers SEK billion 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Mar 2011 Chart 1:12. Jun 2011 Sep 2011 Dec 2011 Mar 2012 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank The major Swedish banks’ LCRs Per cent Chart 1:13. Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank The major Swedish banks´ average LCR Per cent Chart 1:14. Sources: Finansinspektionen and the Riksbank The major Swedish banks average LCR in euros Per cent Chart 1:15. Sources: Finansinspektionen and the Riksbank The major Swedish banks' average LCR in US dollars Per cent Chart 1:16. Sources: Finansinspektionen and the Riksbank The major Swedish banks' average NSFR Per cent Chart 1:17. Sources: Finansinspektionen and the Riksbank Chapter 2 The ECB’s lending to European banks EUR billion 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2007 Chart 2:1. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: ECB Net lending in the ECB’s three-year loans and the euro area’s bank bond maturities EUR billion Chart 2:2. Sources: Dealogic and the Riksbank Borrowing from the ECB before and after the threeyear loans in December and February Percentage of total bank assets Chart 2:3. Sources: Bloomberg, national central banks and the Riksbank Change in banks’ holdings of government bonds in euros and in loans from the ECB EUR billion Chart 2:4. Sources: ECB and Bloomberg 10-year government bonds yields Per cent 40 45 36 40 32 35 28 30 24 25 20 20 16 15 12 10 8 4 5 0 Jul-09 0 Jan-10 Greece Chart 2:5. Jul-10 Ireland Jan-11 Italy Jul-11 Portugal Jan-12 Spain Germany Source: Reuters EcoWin Development of various stock markets Index, July 2011=100 Chart 2:6. Source: Bloomberg European stress index 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 2007 Chart 2:7. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Basis spread Stock market volatility Foreign exchange volatility Government bond spread Corporate bond spread Stress index Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank Public debt Percentage of GDP 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2007 2008 Greece Chart 2:8. 2010 2009 Ireland Italy 2011 Portugal 2012 Spain Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank Deficit in i public finances Per cent of GDP 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -15 -20 -20 -25 -25 -30 -30 -35 2008 2009 Greece Chart 2:9. Ireland 2010 Italy -35 2012 2011 Portugal Spain Source: Reuters Ecowin European banks’ bond issuance EUR billion 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2007 2008 2009 Covered bonds Unsecured bonds Chart 2:10. 2010 2011 2012 Government guaranted bonds Sources: Dealogic and the Riksbank Maturity of banks’ issued unsecured debt Years Chart 2:11. Source: Dealogic Funding costs over 3-months Stibor for covered bonds Basis points Chart 2:12. Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank Five-year CDS premiums for banks Basis points Chart 2:13. Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank Five-year CDS premiums for Swedish banks Basis points 400 400 350 350 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 2008 0 2009 Handelsbanken Chart 2:14. 2010 2011 Nordea 2012 SEB Swedbank Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank The risk premium on the interbank market Basis points 180 180 160 160 140 140 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 09 10 United States Chart 2:15. 11 Euro Area 12 United Kingdom Sweden Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank Indicative breakdown of the three month risk premium in the euro area Basis points 250 200 150 100 50 0 08 09 10 Credit risk Chart 2:16. 11 12 Liquidity risk Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank Cost of borrowing in euros for three months and converting the loan to US dollars Basis points 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 08 Chart 2:17. 09 10 11 12 Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank Turnover on the Swedish repo market, per month SEK billion 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 08 09 Government bond Chart 2:18. 10 Mortgage bonds 11 12 Other Source: The Riksbank Volumnes issued by European companies regardless of currency EUR billion 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 01 02 03 04 Investment grade Chart 2:19. 05 06 07 08 09 Non investment grade/High-yield 10 11 12 Others Source: Dealogic Comparison between corporate bond yields and bank bond yields in Europe Basis points Chart 2:20. Källa: Barclays Live/Iboxx Volumes issued by Swedish corporate bonds, regardless of currency EUR billion 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 01 02 03 04 05 Investment grade Chart 2:21. 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Non investment grade/High-yield Source: Dealogic The risk premium on the interbank market Basis points 400 400 350 350 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 06 07 08 United States Chart B2:1. 09 Euro Area 10 11 12 United Kingdom Sweden Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank Chapter 3 Lending activities of the Swedish banking groups by borrower category, Mars 2012 Per cent of total lending Chart 3:1. Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank Lending activities of the Swedish banking groups by geographical area, Mars 2012 Per cent of total lending Chart 3:2. Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank Household borrowing Per cent 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Monthly percentage changes restated as an annual rate Annual percentage change Chart 3:3. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Average lending rate and property prices Per cent, index 1980 = 100 18 600 15 500 12 400 9 300 6 200 3 100 0 0 90 92 94 96 98 Average lending rate Chart 3:4. 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Real estate price index (right scale) Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Turnover and changes in house prices Number of permanent housing units in thousands, per cent Chart 3:5. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Unsecured credit as a percentage of total borrowing Annual percentage change 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 03 Chart 3:6. 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: Statistics Sweden Prices of single-family houses and tenant-owned apartments Index, 2008-01 = 100 Chart 3:7. Sources: Mäklarstatistik and Valueguard Number of housing starts Thousands 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 70 Chart 3:8. 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 Source: Statistics Sweden Household indebtedness and interest expenditures after tax Per cent of disposable income 220 22 200 20 180 18 160 16 140 14 120 12 100 10 80 8 60 6 40 4 20 2 0 0 93 95 97 99 01 03 Debt ratio (left scale) Chart 3:9 05 07 09 11 13 15 Interest ratio (right scale) Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Households’ debts, assets and savings Per cent of disposable income Chart 3:10. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Corporate borrowing from credit institutions and fixed gross investment Annual percentage change Chart 3:11. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Lending rates to non-financial companies for new loans and three month Stibor Per cent Chart 3:12. Sources: Statistics Sweden and Reuters EcoWin Default rate for Swedish companies Per cent Chart 3:13. Source: The Riksbank Direct earnings requirement for office premises in city centres Per cent 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 01 02 03 Stockholm Chart 3:14. 04 05 06 Göteborg 07 Malmö 08 09 10 11 12 13 Five-year government bond Sources: Pangea and Reuters EcoWin Household borrowing Annual percentage change 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 04 05 06 Sweden Chart 3:15. 07 08 Denmark 09 Finland 10 11 12 Norway Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank Corporate borrowing Annual percentage change 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 03 04 05 Sweden Chart 3:16. 06 07 Denmark 08 Finland 09 10 11 12 Norway Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank Real house prices Index, Q1 1995 = 100 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 80 82 84 86 88 90 Sweden Chart 3:17. 92 94 96 Denmark 98 00 Finland 02 04 06 08 10 12 Norway Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and the Riksbank GDP Annual percentage change 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -15 -20 -20 -25 -25 00 01 02 03 04 05 Estonia Chart 3:18. 06 07 Latvia 08 09 10 11 12 Lithuania Source: Reuters EcoWin Real exchange rates Index, January 2009 = 100 110 110 105 105 100 100 95 95 90 90 85 85 80 80 75 75 70 70 00 01 02 03 04 05 The Baltic countries Chart 3:19. 06 07 08 09 Comparison group 10 11 12 Ireland Source: Bank for International Settlements Household and corporate borrowing Annual percentage change 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 01 02 03 04 05 06 Estonia Chart 3:20. 07 Latvia 08 09 10 11 12 Lithuania Source: Reuters EcoWin Late payments Per cent of total lending 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 00 01 02 03 04 Estonia (more than 60 days) Chart 3:21. 05 06 07 08 Latvia (more than 90 days) 09 10 11 12 Lithuania (more than 60 days) Sources: Eesti Pank, Financial and Capital Market Commission och Lietuvos Bankas Percentage of total loans and mortgages in foreign currency in Poland Per cent 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 04 05 06 07 08 Total lending Chart 3:22. 09 10 11 12 Mortgages Source: Narodowy Bank Polski Credit growth in non-financial private sector Per cent 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 -4 -4 09 10 High-spread euro area Chart B3:1 11 Other euro area 12 Total euro area Source: IMF Lending to Swedish households and companies by credit institutions SEK billion 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 Households Chart B3:2. 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Companies Sorce: Statistics Sweden Swedish banks’ lending to households and companies in the Baltic countries EUR billion 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Estonia Chart B3:2. Latvia 12:1 11:4 11:3 11:2 11:1 10:4 10:3 10:2 10:1 09:4 09:3 09:2 09:1 08:4 08:3 08:2 08:1 07:4 07:3 07:2 07:1 0 Lithuania Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank Chapter 4 Bank assets in relation to GDP December 2010, per cent Chart 4:1. Sources: ECB, the European Commission, the Swiss National Bank and the Riksbank Total assets December 2011, SEK billion 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Handelsbanken Nordea Sweden Chart 4:2. SEB Swedbank Total Abroad Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank Earnings before loan losses and loan losses in the major Swedish banks Totalled over four quarters, SEK billion, fixed prices, March 2012 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 Profit before loan losses Chart 4:3. Loan losses Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank The major Swedish banks' income Rolling four quarters, SEK billion 250 200 150 100 50 0 08:3 08:4 09:1 09:2 09:3 09:4 10:1 10:2 10:3 10:4 11:1 11:2 11:3 11:4 12:1 Other income Chart 4:4. Net result of financial items Net commission income Net interest income Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank The major Swedish banks’ return on equity Four-quarter moving average, per cent 25 20 15 10 5 0 01 02 03 04 05 Return on equity Chart 4:5. 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Average return on equity Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank The major Swedish banks’ return on total assets Four-quarter moving average, per cent Chart 4:6. Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank The swedish banks' cost to income ratio Four-quarter moving average, per cent 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 05 Chart 4:7. 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank Breakdown of interest rate for new mortgages with tree-month fixed rate Per cent 8 Repo rate 7 Other funding costs up to the interbank rate Funding costs in excess of the interbank rate 6 Gross margin 5 4 3 2 1 0 06 Chart 4:8. 07 08 09 10 11 12 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank Gross margins on Swedish new mortgages with three-month fixed rate Per cent 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 02 Chart 4:9. 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Sources: Bank reports, Reuter EcoWin and the Riksbank The major Swedish banks' volume and earnings on mortgages December 2011, per cent Chart 4:10. Sources: Banks' reports, SCB and the Riksbank Swedish major banks' lending to the public in the Baltic countries EUR billions and annual percentage change EUR billion (left scale) Chart 4:11. 12:1 11:4 -15 11:3 0 11:2 -10 11:1 5 10:4 -5 10:3 10 10:2 0 10:1 15 09:4 5 09:3 20 09:2 10 09:1 25 08:4 15 08:3 30 08:2 20 08:1 35 07:4 25 07:3 40 07:2 30 07:1 45 Annual percentage change (right scale) Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank Market shares of lending in the Baltic countries Per cent Chart 4:12. Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank The major Swedish banks' loan losses Percentage of lending at the start of the respective quarters 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 08:1 08:2 08:3 08:4 09:1 09:2 09:3 09:4 10:1 10:2 10:3 10:4 11:1 11:2 11:3 11:4 12:1 Recoveries Specific provisions Chart 4:13. Reversals Collective provisions Write-offs Loan-loss level Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank The major Swedish banks’ loan losses per quarter SEK billions 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 08:3 08:4 09:1 09:2 09:3 09:4 10:1 10:2 10:3 10:4 11:1 11:2 11:3 11:4 12:1 Other countries Chart 4:14. The Baltic countries Other Nordic countries Sweden Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank Loan losses in Swedish mortgage institutions and the four major banks Loan losses in relation to lending to the public, per cent 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 90 92 94 96 98 Swedish mortgage institutions Chart 4:15. 00 02 04 06 08 10 The Swedish major banks, group level Sources: Bank reports, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Impaired loans Percentage of gross lending 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 Handelsbanken Chart 4:16. 06 Nordea 07 08 SEB 09 10 11 12 Swedbank Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank Core Tier 1 capital ratios as defined by Basel II December 2011, per cent 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Swedbank Handelsbanken UBS SEB Standard Ch. Danske Bank Nordea Barclays Lloyds TSB Credit Suisse RBS BBVA HSBC Intesa B. Popular Espana Santander Commerzbank BNP Deutsche Bank Erste Bank DnB NOR Societe Gen. Raiffeisen Int UniCredito Chart 4:17. Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank Core Tier 1 Capital ratios according to Basel II Per cent 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Handelsbanken Nordea 09:1 Chart 4:18. SEB 10:1 11:1 Swedbank 12:1 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank Core Tier 1 capital according to Basel II in relation to total assets Per cent 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 08:3 08:4 09:1 09:2 09:3 09:4 10:1 10:2 10:3 10:4 11:1 11:2 11:3 11:4 12:1 Handelsbanken Chart 4:19. Nordea SEB Swedbank Source: Bank reports and the Riksbank Risk weights on mortgages defined by Basel II Per cent Chart 4:20. Sources: National central banks and the Riksbank The Riksbank's structural liquidity measure for the major Swedish banks Stable funding in relation to illiquid assets, per cent 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2009 Chart 4:21. 2010 2011 Source: Liquidatum and the Riksbank The major Swedish banks' funding, March 2012 Per cent Chart 4:22. Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank The major Swedish banks' liquidity buffers SEK billions Chart 4:23. Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank US Money Market Funds' exposures on European and Nordic banks USD billions Chart 4:24. Sources: Fitch and the Riksbank Investors in Swedish Covered Bonds December 2011, per cent Chart 4:25. Sources: SCB and the Riksbank Chapter 5 Earnings before loan losses and loan losses in the four major Swedish banks Totalled over four quarters, SEK billion, fixed prices, March 2012 120 120 Profit before loan losses 100 100 Loan losses Main scenario loan losses FSR 2011:2 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 -20 -20 90 Chart 5:1. 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank Level of loan losses in the main scenario Per cent 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 -0.05 -0.10 -0.15 -0.20 Handelsbanken Nordea Outcome 2011 Chart 5:2. SEB 2012 Swedbank 2013 Totalt 2014 Source: The Riksbank Distribution of the major banks' loan losses per region in the period 2012–2014 in the main scenario SEK billion Chart 5:3. Source: The Riksbank The major Swedish bank with the lowest Tier 1 capital ratio after another major Swedish bank has defaulted on payments Per cent 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2000 Chart 5:4. 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: The Riksbank Expected default frequency (EDF) for the Swedish non-financial companies in the stress test and in the main scenario Per cent 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDF, main scenario Chart 5:5. 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDF, stress scenario Sources: Moody's KMV and the Riksbank Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratios according to Basel III, initially and in the stress test Per cent Chart 5:6. Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank Factors that contribute to changes in the banks’ CET 1 capital ratios according to Basel III in the stress test Per cent Chart 5:7. Source: The Riksbanken The Riksbank’s short-term liquidity measure Survival period, number of days 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Handelsbanken March 2011 Chart 5:8. June 2011 Nordea September 2011 SEB Swedbank December 2011 March 2012 Sources: Liquidatum and the Riksbank The major Swedish banks’ liquidity buffers SEK billion 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Jun 2011 Chart 5:9. Sep 2011 Dec 2011 Mar 2012 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank The major Swedish banks average LCR Per cent 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Januari 2011 Chart 5:10. Mars 2012 Sources: Finansinspektionen and the Riksbank The Riksbank’s short-term liquidity measure December 2011, Survival period, number of days 160 140 120 100 80 60 Mean value, 59 days 40 20 0 Chart 5:11. Sources: Liquidatum and the Riksbank The Riksbank’s structural liquidity measure Stable funding in relation to illiquid assets, per cent 120 100 80 60 40 20 n/a n/a n/a 0 Handelsbanken June 2011 Chart 5:12. Nordea September 2011 SEB December 2011 Swedbank March 2012 Source: Liquidatum and the Riksbank The major Swedish banks' average NSFR Per cent Chart 5:13. Source: Finansinspektionen and the Riksbank Maturity and issues of bonds 2011 SEK billion Chart 5:14. Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank Relation between lending and deposits Per cent 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Handelsbanken June 2011 Chart 5:15. Nordea September 2011 SEB December 2011 Swedbank March 2012 Sources: Liquidatum and the Riksbank The Riksbank's structural liquidity measure Stable funding in relation to illiquid assets, percent 160 160 140 140 120 120 100 Chart 5:16. Mean value, 97% 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 Sources: Liquidatum and the Riksbank