Chapter 4: Time Value of Money Objective Explain the concept of compounding and discounting and to provide examples of real life applications Copyright, 2000 Prentice Hall ©Author Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. 1 Compounding: Future Value of a Lump Sum FV PV * (1 i) n F V w ith gro w th s fro m -6 % to +6 % F utu re V a lue o f $1 0 0 0 3 ,5 0 0 6% 3 ,0 0 0 2 ,5 0 0 4% 2 ,0 0 0 1 ,5 0 0 2% 1 ,0 0 0 0% -2 % -4 % -6 % 500 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Y ea rs 5 The Frequency of Compounding Annual Percentage Rate (APR) Effective Annual Rate (EFF): The equivalent interest rate, if compounding were only once a year. APR m 1 EFF (1 ) m 10 Effective Annual Rates of an APR of 18% Annual Percentage Rate 18 18 18 18 18 18 Frequency of Annual Compounding Effective Rate 1 18.00 2 18.81 4 19.25 12 19.56 52 19.68 365 19.72 11 The Frequency of Compounding Note that as the frequency of compounding increases, so does the annual effective rate What occurs as the frequency of compounding rises to infinity? APR EFF Lim 1 m m m 1 e APR 1 12 The Frequency of Compounding APR 1 EFF 1 m 1 APR m 1 EFF 1 m m APR m * 1 EFF 1 1 m 13 The Frequency of Compounding Annual Effective Rate 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Compounding Annual Frequency Percentage Rate 1 12.00 2 11.66 4 11.49 12 11.39 52 11.35 365 11.33 Infinity 11.33 14 Annuities A level stream of Cash Flows or Payments Immediate Annuity: The Cash Flows start immediately. Ordinary Annuity: The Cash Flows start at the end of the current period. 15 Derivation of PV of Ordinary Annuity Formula pmt pmt PV 1 2 1 i 1 i pmt pmt pmt 3 n 1 n 1 i 1 i 1 i 16 Derivation of PV of Ordinary Annuity Formula 1 1 PV pmt *{ 1 2 1 i 1 i 1 1 1 } 3 n 1 n 1 i 1 i 1 i 17 PV of Ordinary Annuity Formula 1 pmt *{1 } n 1 i PV i pmt 1 * 1 n i 1 i 18 Annuity Formula: PV of Immediate Annuity PVimm PVord * (1 i ) pmt n *{1 1 i } * (1 i ) i pmt 1 n *{(1 i ) 1 i } i 19 Derivation of FV of Annuity Formula pmt 1 (ord. annuity) PV * 1 n i 1 i FV PV * 1 i (lump sum) n pmt 1 n * 1 i FV * 1 n i 1 i pmt n * 1 i 1 i 20 Perpetual Annuities / Perpetuities Recall the annuity formula: pmt 1 PV * 1 n i 1 i • Let n -> infinity with i > 0: pmt PV i 21 Alternative Discounted Cash Flow Decision Rules 1. NPV rule: the NPV is the difference between the present value of all future cash inflows minus the present value of all current and future cash outflows. Accept a project if its NPV is positive. 22 DCF rules Example: You have the opportunity to buy a piece of land for $10,000. You are sure that 5 years from now it will be worth $20,000. If you can earn 8% per year by investing your money in bank, is this investment in the land worthwhile? 23 NPV rule solution 20,000 NPV $10,000 $ 5 1.08 $10,000 $13,612 $3612 0 24 Alternative Discounted Cash Flow Decision Rules 2. FV rule: Invest if the future value of the investment is larger than the future value that can be obtained from the next best alternative. 25 FV rule solution FV $10,0001.08 5 $14,693 $20,000 26 Alternative Discounted Cash Flow Decision Rules 3. IRR rule: The IRR is the discount rate at which the NPV is zero. Invest if the IRR is greater than the opportunity cost of capital. 27 IRR rule solution $20,000 $10,000 5 (1 i ) i 14.87% 8% 28 Alternative Discounted Cash Flow Decision Rules 4. Choose the investment alternative with fastest payback. 29 Payback rule solution $20,000 $10,000 n 1.08 n95 30 Loan Amortization The process of paying a loan principal gradually over its term Example: $100,000 mortgage loan, APR: 9%, repaid in 3 annual installments pm t 1 pmt=? PV * 1 n i 1 i pmt=$39504.48 100000 pmt * 1 1 3 0.09 1.09 31 Loan Amortization First Year: Interest: (0.09)(100000)=9000 pmt: 39504.48 principal: 30504.48 Outstanding Balance: 69494.52 32 Loan Amortization Second Year: Interest: (0.09)(69494.52)=6254.51 pmt: 39504.48 principal: 33250.97 Outstanding Balance: 36243.54 33 Loan Amortization Third Year: Interest:(0.09)(36243.54)=3262 pmt: 39504.48 principal: 36244 Outstanding Balance: 0 34 Amortization of Principal 450000.00 Outstanding Balance 400000.00 350000.00 300000.00 250000.00 200000.00 150000.00 100000.00 50000.00 0.00 0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 264 288 312 336 360 Months 35 Percent of Interest and Principal 100% 90% 80% Percent 70% % Interest 60% 50% 40% % Principal 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 264 288 312 336 360 Months 36 Computing NPV in Different Currencies In any TVM calculation, the cash flows and the interest rate must be denominated in the same currency. 41 Inflation and Future Values Example: At age 20 you save $100 and invest it at a dollar interest rate of 8% per year, and you do not take it until age 65. If the inflation is estimated 5% per year, how much will you have accumulated in the account at that time in terms of real purchasing power? 42 Solution 1: 1 nom. rate(r ) 1 real rate( R ) 1 Inflation(i ) 1 R 1.02857 real FV PV (1 R) n real FV $1001.02857 $355 45 43 Solution 2: nom. FV in 45 years $100 1.08 $3,192 45 price level in 45 years 1.05 8.985 nom.FV $3,192 real FV FPL 8.985 $355 45 44 Inflation and Present Values Example: Your daughter is 10 years old, and you are planning to open an account to provide for her college education. Tuition for a year of college is now $15,000. How much must you invest now in order to have enough to pay for her first year’s tuition 8 years from now, if you think you can earn a rate of interest that is 3% more than the inflation rate of 5%? 45 Solution: $15,000 PV $ 11 . 841 8 1.03 Wrong: $15,000 PV $ 8 . 104 8 1.08 46 Inflation and Present Values Never use a nominal interest rate when discounting real cash flows or a real interest rate when discounting nominal cash flows. 47