JSE Power Hour
Lazy Trading
Simon Brown
JustOneLap.com
SimonBrown.co.za
@SimonPB
30th May 2013
Disclaimer
The information and opinions stated in this presentation/document/video/webinar are of a general nature, have
been prepared solely for information purposes and do not constitute any advice or recommendation to conclude
any transaction or enter into any agreement. It is strongly recommended that every recipient seek appropriate
professional advice before acting on any information contained herein. Whilst every care has been taken in
preparing this document, no representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is given as to the
accuracy or completeness of the information or representations. All information contained herein is subject to
change after publication at any time without notice. The past performance of any investment product is not an
indication of future performance.
Creative Commons Licence
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/
twitter.com/JustOneLap
twitter.com/SimonPB
facebook.com/JustOneLap
Simon Brown
www.JustOneLap.com
www.SimonBrown.co.za
What
•Simple & lazy
•Trade with primary trend
•Weekly chart
•INDICES only
•No gearing
•No shorting
•Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)
What
•Indices only (using ETFs)
•Indi25 - STXIND
•Fini15 - STXFIN
•Resi10 - STXRES
•MidCap - RMBMID
•No STT on ETFs
What
•Small number of signals
•Trades can run for years
•Struggles in sideways market
How
•Find primary index trend
•Only trade in this direction
•After pull back against trend (secondary trend), enter
when back in primary trend
•Confirm week after trigger
Trends
•Primary trend
•Exponential moving average relative to each other
•30 and 60 WEEK
•30 > 60 = up (long only)
•30 < 60 = down (no trade)
Trends
•Secondary trend
•Exponential moving average relative to price
•15 week
•Price up through 15 = buy
•If primary confirming
Process
•Is primary trend is up;
•Wait for price to cross up through 15 week EMA =
trigger
•Confirmation = next week IF green close for week
•I enter at 4.30pm on Friday
Exit
•Only exit on stop loss on weekly close
•Close below 15 week EMA
OR Less aggressive (I use)
•Close below 30 week EMA
Indi example
Primary trend = UP
Resi example
Primary trend = DOWN
Position size
•Use 1% rule
•Video at http://jol.to/?4J
•Buy at 4180c
•Stop at 4026c
•Risk per share = 154c
•Quantity = 154c divided by 1% of portfolio Rand value
Position size
•R100,000 portfolio
•Buy at 4180c
•Stop at 4026c
•Risk per share = 154c
•1% = R1,000
•Quantity = R1,000 / 154c
= 649 (cost R27,128.20)
Indi Trades
Indi example
Primary trend = UP
Indi Trade
R100,000 portfolio
•Buy 649 at 4180c (SL 4026c)
•Bid Thur 30th (11am) 4725c
•Profit = 545c (13.0%)
•Stop loss now 4203c (42,030)
Fini Trades
Fini Trade
Primary trend = UP
Fini Trade
R100,000 portfolio
•Buy 2,500 at 1140c (SL 1100c)
•Bid Thur 30th (11am) 1188c
•Profit = 48c (4.2%)
•Stop loss now 1122c (11,218)
MidCap Trades
MidCap Trade
Primary trend = UP
MidCap Trade
R100,000 portfolio
•Buy 6,667 at 558c (SL 543c)
•Bid Thur 30th (11am) 556c
•Loss = 2c (0.4%)
•Stop loss now 547c (54,724)
Resi Trades
Risks
•Sideways market
•Stop can be large (1% rule)
Re-cap
•Simple (5 minutes a week)
•3 moving averages
•Monitor weekly
•Few trades
•Sideways market bleeds
•Ideal portfolio size > R50k
Finally
•Not advice
•Test it
Video - How to test a system
http://jol.to/?5L
@SimonPB
@JustOneLap
Facebook.com/JustOneLap
info@justonelap.com
Disclaimer
The information and opinions stated in this presentation/document/video/webinar are of a general nature, have
been prepared solely for information purposes and do not constitute any advice or recommendation to conclude
any transaction or enter into any agreement. It is strongly recommended that every recipient seek appropriate
professional advice before acting on any information contained herein. Whilst every care has been taken in
preparing this document, no representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is given as to the
accuracy or completeness of the information or representations. All information contained herein is subject to
change after publication at any time without notice. The past performance of any investment product is not an
indication of future performance.
Creative Commons Licence
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/
JSE Power Hour
Lazy Trading
Simon Brown
JustOneLap.com
SimonBrown.co.za
@SimonPB
30th May 2013