Assessing Vulnerability of Wildlife
Species At Risk From Climate
Change
Deborah Finch
US Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station
What do we know about wildlife?
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How does climate change threaten
wildlife?
How will different species respond to
climate change?
Are species already responding?
How will habitats be impacted?
Where will impacts be greatest?
IUCN
Threatened
CC susceptible
Threatened & CC
susceptible
Total Birds =
38% (~ 3 x’s more)
Foden et al. 2008. IUCN.
Direct vs. Indirect Effects
Direct effects
of temperature, ppt. & carbon dioxide on birds
(dehydration, egg-warming …)
Indirect Effects:
 Habitat loss and shifts in habitat distributions
 Responses by invasive species
 Changes in fire frequency
 Diseases
 Changes in phenology
 Disruption of food webs
 Decoupling of cues and responses
Migration times are shifting
Birds are migrating earlier in the spring.
A study of 63 years of data for 96 species of bird migrants
in Canada showed that 27 species arrive earlier, in
conjunction with warming spring temperatures.
Birds also seem to be delaying fall
departure: in a study of 13 N. Amer.
songbirds, 6 species were found
to delay their departure dates
in relation to warming.
Some birds in Europe are even
failing to migrate at all.
Egg laying is earlier.
One large-scale study showed that birds are laying eggs
at an average rate of 6.6 days earlier per decade.
The Common Murre in North America has advanced its
breeding date 24 days per decade.
North American Tree Swallows are nesting up to 9 days
earlier than 30 years ago, corresponding to an
increase in average spring temperatures.
Reproductive Timing
Temperature cues and climate
change can lead to earlier lay
dates.
Benefit or potential mismatch?
Dunn and Winkler 1999. Proc. Royal Soc. Lond. 266
Mixed Signals
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Pied flycatcher in Holland
• Long distance migrant
• Migration triggered by day-night
cycles
• Food source tied to temperature
• >90% reduction in populations
(early breeders doing ok)
Nicole Bouglouan
From: University of Montanta 2009. Climate change hurting hares: with snowshoe hares can’t hide on
brown earth. SciencDaily. Both et al., 2006 Nature
Bird Distributions are Changing
Bird populations are expected to shift poleward, or to higher
elevations, to stay coupled to shifting environments as the
climate changes.
Ontario Breeding Bird Atlas data show “southern” bird species such
as Tufted Titmouse and Blue-Gray Gnatcatcher have increased and
have expanded their range north compared to 20 years ago.
A study of 35 North American warbler species found that ranges
of 7 species shifted significantly north in the past 24 years, by an
average of 65 miles. None of the birds shifted to the south.
35
Temperature (°C)
Shifts in elevational distributions:
Mountain Quail
30
Maximum temps
r2 = 0.4779
25
20
15
Minimum temps
r2 = 0.0674
10
5
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
Cumulative abundance
1.00
0.80
0.60
1979-81
K-S
test:
2005-07
0.40
P < 0.05
0.20
0.00
200
700
1200
Elevation (m)
Hargrove and Rotenberry 2009, UC Riverside
1700
2200
Ecological communities are disrupted
Global warming can change entire ecological communities. Food and
nesting materials may no longer be there. Wildlife may face new prey,
parasites, competitors, and predators to which they are not adapted.
Example of
disruption
Tufted Puffins at Canadian
sites have breeding success
near zero when water is at its
warmest, which could mean
that Canada’s largest breeding
colony for this species, Scott
Islands, may become unsuitable
for Tufted Puffins as water
continues to warm.
Biotic Interactions: Disease
Native bird populations decimated by avian Malaria
Malaria limited by mosquito-vector
Predicted range expansions due to global warming
shifts birds into the unprotected malaria zone
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From: Benning et al., 2002 PNAS 99: 14246-14249.
Weather phenomena
Intensity and frequency of El Nino storms expected
to increase.
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Drastic population crashes of the Black-throated Blue
warbler have been linked to reduced precipitation in its over
wintering grounds
Increased El Nino events associated with 50% decline in
Galapagos penguin populations
Drought & Reproductive Failure
R. Wolf
Bolger, Patten, and Bostock. 2005. Population Ecology 142:398-406
How Are People Affected?
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Changes in recreational opportunities
such as photographing and viewing
animals
Changes in ecosystem services such
as water supply, wood products,
clean air
Changes in services available on
public lands (skiing, rafting,
camping)
Extinction risks are on the rise
Birds most at risk of extinction from climate change are those with
restricted ranges, poor ability to move their range, small populations, or
those already facing conservation challenges.
Migratory birds are particularly vulnerable to climate change effects,
because they depend on multiple habitats and sites.
Arctic birds are particularly vulnerable – warming is occurring rapidly here,
and 15% of the world’s birds breed in global Arctic regions. Vast areas of
habitat, including tundra and sea ice, will be lost. Sea ice retreat could
have severe consequences for Ivory Gulls, which forage on along sea ice.
Canadian Ivory Gulls, which forage along sea ice, have already declined
in number by 90% over the past two decades.
Source:
Koopman et al.2009
NCCSP
Next Steps
•
Model demographic responses of species to changes in climate
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Plan for future changes in critical habitats
• Determine vulnerable wildlife species
• Make assisted adaptation plans
• Partnerships to achieve successful outcomes
• Increase resilience of habitats via restoratlon
• Monitor and analyze existing monitoring data
• Conservation education
Climate Change, Wildlife and Wildlands:
A Toolkit for Formal and Informal
Educators
http://www.globalchange.gov/climate-toolkit
The kit is designed for classroom teachers and
informal educators and is aimed at the middle
school level. The U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, in partnership with six other federal
agencies, developed the kit to aid educators in
teaching how climate change is affecting our
nation’s wildlife and public lands, and how
everyone can become “climate stewards.”
Toolkit
•
12 minute video on climate change, wildlife
• Overview of the science of climate change
• Case studies on impacts to habitats and wildlife
• Glossary of climate change terms
• Activities keyed to natl. science standards
• Hands-on activities and educator resources
Thanks
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USDA Forest Service
University of Arizona
Arizona State Polytechnic
The Nature Conservancy
Department of Defense, Legacy
US Fish and Wildlife Service