Climate change vulnerability maps for coral
reefs in Micronesia
Jeffrey Maynard
EPHE/CNRS & CRIOBE, French Polynesia and Perpignan, France
Major Contributors: Ruben van Hooidonk, Elizabeth Mcleod, Steven McKagan,
Steven Johnson, Gabriella Ahmadia, Peter Houk, Tim McClanahan, Simon
Donner, Nick Graham, Aaron MacNeil, and Lindsey Harriman.
Other Contributors: Yimnang Golbuu, Annick Cros, Scott Heron, Janice Lough,
and Rodney Salm.
Two project phases and overarching objectives:
1. Assess regional-scale spatial variability in the timing of projected annual
bleaching conditions using ensembles of IPCC models forced with RCP
experiments.
2. Develop and then implement a new resilience-based site selection framework
using a reduced number of factors/resilience indicators
Objective 1 - Regional-scale spatial variability in the timing
of projected annual bleaching conditions
RCP 8.5
Focused on
bleaching;
acidification also
becoming
available too.
Excludes severe
tropical storms
and COTs
Informative on
regional-scale so
can inform
resource
prioritisation…
Global analysis: van Hooidonk, Maynard & Planes (in review)
Objective 2 – Develop and implement a new resiliencebased site selection framework
1
2
West and Salm 2003
Obura and Grimsditch 2009
3
4
Maynard et al. 2010
IMCC 2012 in Canada
5
McClanahan et al (in revision)
Selection process: ‘top tens’ and high feasibility (score >5) of measurement/assessment.
-11 factors recommended for use in site-selection frameworks
-4 of these are stressors related to human activity.
Range used
for a 2 – the
mid-range
score – is
Average +1
STDEV
Numbers
outside that
range get a 1,
or a 3.
Maynard et al. (in prep)
Land-use information
layers (nutrient input
and sedimentation)
Expert surveys (fishing
pressure).
Maynard et al. (in prep)
4 (high), 24 (medium) and 7 (low)
Can find all scores here, so part of package for managers.
Maynard et al. (in prep)
Maynard et al. (in prep)
Maynard et
al. (in prep).
Drivers of resilience rankings
Measuring CoV in final
weighted
resilience
Enormous
variation
scores here.
Of the total variation in
scores the great majority
is due to the top four.
Hugely important for
future monitoring.
Rigorous assessment
first, less resourceintensive assessments
later/more routinely.
Maynard et al. (in prep)
Informing
management
decisionmaking
Targeting
actions based
on resilience,
habitat
condition, and
addressing
the ‘worst’
stressors.
Maynard et al. (in prep)
Summary and Conclusions:
Exposure mapping – FUTURE – can inform planning and is possible for
bleaching and acidification but at 1) regional scales, 2) with high uncertainty,
and 3) at the exclusion of severe tropical storms and COTS.
Resilience assessments and mapping describe both current status and likely
future persistence:
1) informing spatial planning
2) creating decision-support frameworks to target management
actions
3) enabling routine monitoring of key local resilience indicators
Problems to resolve: differential disturbance history and reef growth potential
among sites.
Combining both exposure mapping and resilience mapping ensures resilience
and vulnerability inform conservation at a range of scales.
Thanks to all project contributors and to conference and symposia
organisers!
Jeffrey Maynard – E: maynardmarine@gmail.com
Acknowledgments: Project was made possible by funds from the Western Pacific Coral Reef
Institute and the University of Guam, with support from The Nature Conservancy’s Coral Reef
Conservation program, NOAA AOML, the Department of Environmental Quality of the CNMI
government, the Pacific Marine Resources Institute, and the Coastal Resources Management
group of the CNMI government. Support was also provided by EPHE/CNRS & CRIOBE and
the Universite de Perpignan of French Polynesia and France.