October 7-10, 2012
Chicago, IL
The State of the
Channel: 2012
DOES IT REALLY MATTER?
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
Presentations: http://ilink.me/Dealer
Channels are the least
flexible aspect
of the marketing mix.
This is an open
invitation to new
competition.
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
Presentations: http://ilink.me/Dealer
In the Battle for “Place,”
Convenience Wins
versus
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
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The State of the
Channel: 2020
BREAK WITH TRADITION
BEFORE SOMEONE ELSE
BREAKS IT FOR YOU
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
Presentations: http://ilink.me/Dealer
A Step Back: Why Channels?
• Channels provide an advantage
not easy created internally
• … fill a void in a unique way that
is proprietary and preferred
• All channels exist to reduce the
total long-term cost and increase the
effectiveness of a system of relationships
• (Selling direct is not always what it’s cracked up to be)
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
Presentations: http://ilink.me/Dealer
Commercial Printing’s
Undeniable Trends
• Fewer and smaller print businesses
– Greater distance between commercial
print establishments
• Fewer suppliers
• Shrinking offset installed base,
digital base increases
• “Mainstream Print” disappears
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
Presentations: http://ilink.me/Dealer
What Do These
Trends Mean?
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
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By 2020, per capita
consumption of US
commercial print
will drop by -25% or more
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
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Fewer US Commercial Printing
establishments: down 1/3 by 2020
… or worse…
-40% from
2012 to 2020
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
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Content is Still Being Created
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
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Ad Agency + Graphic Design
Employment Now Exceeds
That of Commercial Print
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
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Fewer suppliers
•
Excuse me, sir, I came here to see the
pre-press pavilion… can you tell me where that is?
• Influence of long-established
vendors is diminishing
– Kodak working through bankruptcy
– Heidelberg stock about €1.20 ($1.50)
– Presstek 50 cents per share
– Xerox shares were about $12 at end 2011,
now are about $7.50
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
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CapEx investment rate shrinks
• CapEx decreases
from 5% to 3% of sales
• Dealer opportunity:
new homes for current
installed base as
industry consolidates
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
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Decreases in overall demand
create new channel opportunities
• Suppliers need to cut fixed costs
• Workflows must become focused
on multi-channel deployment
• Printers seek new revenue sources
• Content creators become new
opportunity for graphic arts dealers
and reps
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
Presentations: http://ilink.me/Dealer
Commercial Printing’s
Survivors Will be
Healthier
Smaller
Media Integrated
Focused on Specialties
Broadly Dispersed
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
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Smaller markets
+
More complexity
=
Channel Restructuring
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
Presentations: http://ilink.me/Dealer
New Issues for the
Biggest Traditional Suppliers
• Industry suppliers will restructure
sales and service coverage
– Shift from W-2 workers to 1099
independents and current dealers
• Independent technical and service
personnel
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
Presentations: http://ilink.me/Dealer
Does Digital Media Hold
Opportunities for the
Dealer/Independent Rep?
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
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If You Believe in “Marketing
Services” You Believe in this Chart
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
Presentations: http://ilink.me/Dealer
Print Workflow Transforms into
Multichannel Deployment
• “BIG IRON”ERA
– Single-purpose
CapEx
– Buy once and
feed with
consumables
• DIGITAL ERA
– Multi-purpose
infrastructure
– Constant CapEx
upgrades and
integration
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
Presentations: http://ilink.me/Dealer
How Digital Media Changes the
Print Workflow
• Printers used to enter new markets with
new equipment that would last years
• Printers will enter new markets with
new software and new communications
technologies that last for months
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
Presentations: http://ilink.me/Dealer
Today’s “Mainstream Print”
Decreases in Volume
• Specialty production is more tactical
than strategic
• More specialized equipment,
niche tactics, approaches
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
Presentations: http://ilink.me/Dealer
Channel Questions
for 2012-2020
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
Presentations: http://ilink.me/Dealer
Are dealers the
“systems analysts” for
marketing services /
communications
logistics?
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
Presentations: http://ilink.me/Dealer
Are dealers the new
CapEx sales and service
infrastructure for the
industry’s former
high-flying vendors?
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
Presentations: http://ilink.me/Dealer
Can dealers bring new
ranges of specialties to
printers anxious for new
revenue streams?
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
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If you want things
to stay the same,
things will have to change
The Leopard
Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
Presentations: http://ilink.me/Dealer
QUESTIONS
Thank You Very Much!
Global Channel Partners Summit 2012
Presentations: http://ilink.me/Dealer