Status of Food Security, Trade
and the Economic Health of
Fisheries
• Procida
• 3-4 October 2011
• Audun Lem
1
Outline
1. Fish and food security
–
–
–
Consumption
Generation of employment & income
Trade – exports - imports
2. Trade – supply - demand
3. Economic health of fisheries
– Resource sustainability & fisheries management
– Demand & prices
4. Conclusions
1. Background
(FAO,
2010)
Undernourishment in 2010, by
Region (millions)
(FAO,
2010)
Food Security
• “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have
physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe
and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and
food preferences for an active and healthy life” (FAO, 2010)
• Undernutrition
– mortality, morbidity, stunting and wasting
• Micronutrient deficiencies
– immune functions, cognitive development, growth,
reproductive performance and work productivity
Fish & Food Security
• Fish can increase food security through:
– Domestic consumption
– Generation of employment and income
– Trade
• Food based approaches focus on increasing direct
consumption to address the immediate determinant of
undernutrition
• Interventions in fishing and aquaculture have focused on
indirect impact of improving household food security
(employment/processing/trade).
What the Fisheries Sector is Facing Today
• Marine Fisheries:
– Large proportion either fully utilized or over-exploited
– Limited potential for increased production
• In-Land Fisheries:
– Some stocks collapsed or collapsing
– Bu many remain lightly exploited
– Probable under-reporting of catches
• Aquaculture:
– Fastest-growing animal food-producing sector in the world
– Global per-capita aquaculture production increased from
0.9kg in 1970 to 8.6 kg in 2011
FAO databases on 392 stocks
•
•
•
•
•
•
6% underexploited,
20% moderately exploited,
50% fully exploited,
15% overfished,
6% depleted,
and 2% are recovering.
8
Fish Consumption (kg/capita/year)
FAO,
2009
Employment and Income
• Capture Fisheries
– a main source of household income
– prevents serious food insecurity
– increases fish consumption (frequent poor nutritional
status of fishing communities)
– important for seasonal part-time income and
diversifying livelihoods
• Aquaculture
– raises household income
Food Security and Fish Trade
• The long term sustainability of trade depends on
the sustainability of the fishery resource
• Exports generate foreign exchange, employment
and income, but can decrease the availability for
domestic consumption
• Society is likely to gain overall from exports,
but there may be distributional consequences
Fish Trade
• Countries that are large exporters of fish
also import fish
• China, the largest producer and exporter,
now also a major importer: nr. 6 (after US,
Japan, Spain, France, Italy)
2. TRADE –
SUPPLY - DEMAND
13
World fish production
Million t 2009
2010e
2011e
Capture
89
87
89
2011/
2010
1.8%
Farmed
56
58
60
4.0%
Total
145
145
149
2.7%
14
World Fish Production
aquaculture
catch
FAO
15
Per caput food supply
Kg/year 2009
2010
2011
2011/10
Food
fish
17.2
17.3
17.4
0.3%
Capture
9.1
8.9
8.8
-2.1%
Farmed
8.2
8.4
8.6
2.8%
16
World aquaculture production 19502011: strong growth but slowing
down
aquaculture
17
Aquaculture producers
China
18
WORLD TRADE
19
World Fish Trade: Export Value
- in 1000 USD -
developing
developed
20
LARGE EXPORT DECLINE
2009: USD 95.6 BILLION
• 2009: A difficult year for prices and margins
– - 7.5 % down in value (USD)
• but 2009 volumes were only moderately
down
– 0.6 % in volume (live weight conversion)
• DEVELOPING COUNTRIES:
– 52 % SHARE OF EXPORTS
21
2010: new growth, new record
• ESTIMATED EXPORTS: USD 105 billion
(+ 10%)
• Volume: 55.2 million tons (+0.5%)
• It is prices and margins that increase more
than volume
22
2011 forecast ?
• Exports USD 108.4 billion (+3.1%)
• Export volume 55.4 million tons (+0.4%)
(live weight)
• New forecast because of down turn:
• Exports USD 106-107 billion
• Export volume 55.3 million tons
23
Main fish exporters 2010 (value)
24
Main fish importers (2009)
sharp decline
•
•
•
•
Japan
US
EU
Total big 3
USD 13.3 bill.
USD 13.9 bill.
USD 40.4 bill.
USD 67.6 bill.
• Total world USD 99.3 bill.
-
10.7 %
7.3 %
9.6 %
9.3 %
- 8.1%
25
Main fish importers (2010)
new record imports
•
•
•
•
Japan
US
EU
Total big 3
USD 14.9 bill.
USD 15.5 bill.
USD 43.0 bill.
USD 73.4 bill.
+
+
+
+
12.0 %
11.5 %
6.4 %
8.6 %
• Total world USD 109.7 bill. + 10.5%
26
Fish market trends
• Japan: long-term decline in fish consumption and imports Meat>fish .
– high consumption but falling: 65 kg/kaput
– below 3 million tons in 2007
• USA: long-term growth, is overtaking Japan as # 1 country
– rising population and consumption /kaput 24 kg
• EU: long-term growth: # 1 market (EU 27)
– expanding population, stable consumption at 20 kg
– rising import dependence
• New markets/emerging economies
– Strong growth: Russia, Brazil, India, Asian markets
27
Distribution
• 68 % of world imports by three markets
– within these markets: supermarkets represent 50-85 %
of retail sales
• concentration of sales whereas industry remains
fragmented
• tendency in developing countries: urbanization
29
Role of China in production
30
Commodity prices
•
fish versus other food ?
31
FAO Food Price Index
Source: FAO
FAO Food Price Index (excl.
fish)
Source: FAO
FAO Fish Price Index
1995= 100
160
140
TOTAL
120
AQUACULTURE
100
80
CAPTURE
60
40
20
0
Jan90
Jan92
Jan94
Jan96
Jan98
Jan00
Jan02
Data source: Norwegian Seafood Export Council
Jan04
Jan06
Jan08
Jan10
Jan12
Food vs Fish Price Index
Food/Meat: 2002-2004= 100
Fish/salmon: 2005 = 100
250
200
Food
150
Meat
Fish
100
Salmon
50
0
Jan90
Jan92
Jan94
Jan96
Jan98
Jan00
Jan02
Jan04
Jan06
Jan08
Jan10
Jan12
FUTURE FISH PRICES ?
• DEMAND: slowly rising
– because of population growth
– small underlying increase in per kaput consumption
• SUPPLY
– capture: stable, not increasing in short/medium term
– aquaculture: increasing but declining growth
– unknowns: climate change, disease, but also technology improvements
• PRICE IMPACT ?
– most probably slightly higher prices, esp. for aquaculture because of limits
on feed supply
– price cycles in commodity markets
– industry profitability through product development, technological
innovation and cost reduction, targeted marketing
36
3. Economic health of fisheries
• Sustainability:
– Environmental: the resource
– Social: the people
– Economic: the companies
• Long term economic sustainability
– linked to state of fish stocks and effective
fisheries management
– linked to sustainable trade
– linked to demand situation and prices
37
FAO databases on 392 stocks
•
•
•
•
•
•
6% underexploited,
20% moderately exploited,
50% fully exploited,
15% overfished,
6% depleted,
and 2% are recovering.
38
Fisheries management
• National:
– Science
– Strong national institutions
– National legislation
• International
– Science
– International instruments
– FAO: Code of conduct for responsible fisheries
39
Example of intl. instrument
• Agreement on Port States Measures to
Prevent, Deter and Eliminate Illegal,
Unreported and Unregulated Fishing.
– foreign fishing vessels must comply if they
want to use ports in other countries
– national authorities to take action against
foreign boats involved in illegal fishing in their
own ports.
• Adopted by FAO Conference in 2009
• 25 ratifications needed for implementation
40
CONCLUSIONS
1. Fish a vital role in food security
–
–
through direct consumption
through employment in production, processing and trade
•
–
and frequently important as an employer of women
through trade, exports and imports
2. Fish production is increasing, thanks to aquaculture: 49 % share in 2011 in
food fish
–
–
3.
Economic health of fisheries
–
–
–
4.
long–term trend in fish trade is positive
big 3 markets import 68 % but declining. Growing emerging markets incl. Russia.
state of fish stocks
role of effective fisheries management and strong institutions
good science, effective national and international instruments
Future: opportunities
–
–
–
rising demand because of population and economic growth
rising supply thanks to aquaculture
rising prices because of demand, and higher feed costs
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WWW.GLOBEFISH.ORG
THANK YOU
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