Planning using
Problem Analysis and
The Theory of Change
What is Planning?
• It is a participative process which
assists:
– To analyse the existing situation and identify
the causes of problems.
– To ensure buy-in, informed decision making &
teamwork.
– To establish a logical hierarchy of means by
which results will be reached.
– To identify possible risks.
– To establish how results (outputs and
outcomes) might best be monitored.
Process
• The “Process” involves
– Problem analysis
– Stakeholder analysis
(where necessary)
– Developing a Logic Model
with a hierarchy of
objectives
– Selecting a preferred
implementation strategy.
vs
Product
• The “Product” of this
analytical process is the The
Plan which summarizes:
– What the project intends to do
and how
– What are the key assumptions
– How outputs and outcomes will
be monitored and evaluated
This is an interactive
group exercise by a
representative group
The Process is equally as important as the Product
Outline of the Process
Planning must be undertaken by a representative team
- not only by management or technical assistant team
Step 1 - Establish representative team of
participants - Stakeholder Analysis
Step 2 – Problem Analysis
Step 3 - Analysis of Objectives
Step 4 - Analysis of Alternate Strategies
Step 5 - Develop The Logic Model
Step 6 – Develop the plan of action with a focus on the
results.
Step 7 - Using the plan of action to monitor &
evaluate the project
Step 1 - Establishing a Team
• Initial Stakeholder Analysis to assemble a
representative team to undertake planning.
Target
Group
STAKEHOLDERS
Delivery
Group
Others
Let’s take
a closer
look at
each group
Those directly affected by
the problems in question
and who might be
beneficiaries of any
proposed project solution
Target
Group
STAKEHOLDERS
Delivery
Group
Those responsible for
delivering the proposed
project solution
Others
Other agencies who have
an interest in, or a
responsibility for,
addressing the identified
development problems
Steps 2, 3 & 4 – Problem & Objectives
Analysis and Analysis of Alternate
Strategies
EFFECT
CAUSE
Problem Tree
Objective Tree
(Negatives)
(Positives)
END
MEANS
What is Problem Analysis?
Problem analysis is a tool that helps to:
– determine real as opposed to apparent needs
– analyse the existing situation and identify the
underlying causes of problems
– Identify potential constraints
– ensure buy-in, informed decision making &
teamwork as potential solutions are discovered
– Identify the size of the problem and the likely
resources needed to tackle it
– Identify and analyse a number of alternative
solutions
Analysis of the Current Situation
• Specify broad objective of the programme
• Identify constraints to achieving this objective
(What are the hinderances)
• Sort constraints into cause and effect logic to
create a Problem Tree
EFFECT
CAUSE
The ultimate
solution must
address the
Causes
and NOT the
Effects
Example - Constraints
• Objective : Lead a Healthy Lifestyle
– In a collaborative workshop list all the potential constraints :
– Avoid pre-empting the solution; your statements should be of
the problem.
Overweight
No access to
Fresh Produce
Can’t afford
Gym
Only eat
staple foods
Laziness/
No discipline
Unhealthy
Lifestyle
No
Motivation/
Boring
Can’t afford
Healthy Foods
Work
Functions
Old Habits/
Past failures
Can’t afford
stove
Too Busy/
No Time to
Exercise
Unfit
Misinformation on
adverts
No Time to
prepare
healthy meal
Eat unhealthy
foods
Eat
Convenience
Foods
Example – Cause & Effect Logic
?
Eat Convenience
Foods
Overweight
?
Which is the Cause & which is the Effect
Example – Cause & Effect Logic
EFFECT
Being
Overweight
Causes
CAUSE
Eating
Convenience
Foods
Example – Problem Tree
• Objective : Lead a Healthy Lifestyle
Unhealthy
Lifestyle
EFFECT
Overweight
Eat unhealthy
foods
Unfit
Can’t afford
Gym
CAUSE
No
Motivation/
Boring
Too Busy/
No Time to
Exercise
Old Habits/
Past failures
Can’t afford
stove
Work
Functions
Laziness/
No discipline
Can’t afford
Healthy Foods
Only eat
staple foods
Eat
Convenience
Foods
Misinformation on
adverts
No Time to
prepare
healthy meal
No access to
Fresh Produce
Analysis of Objectives
• Take Problem Statements (negatives) from
the Problem Tree and turn them into Objective
Statements (positive desirable conditions)
EFFECT
CAUSE
Problem Tree
Objective Tree
(Negatives)
(Positives)
END
MEANS
Example – Objective Tree
END
EFFECT
Unhealthy
Healthy
Lifestyle
Overweight
Weight loss
Regular
Unfit
Exercise
Eat unhealthy
Eat Correctly
foods
Affordable
Can’t afford
exercise routine
Gym
established
Develop
No a
Motivation/
Positive
Attitude
Boring
Record of
Can’t afford
daily food
stove
intake
Eat less at
Work
work
Functions
functions
Healthy eating
Can’t afford
plan
Healthy Foods
established
Vegetable
Only eat
garden
staple foods
established
StopEat
Buying
Fast
Convenience
Foods &
Save
Foods
Money
MEANS
CAUSE
Too Busy/
Effective
Plan time
Time
No Time to
effectively
Planning
Exercise
Deal
Old with
Habits/
Past
Past
Failures
failures
Laziness/
Develop
Get key
No discipline
Disciplined
disciplines
Obtain
MisNutritional
information
nutritionalon
Education
Education
adverts
Learn
No Time
howtoto
make
prepare
a quick
healthy meal
Learn how to
No access to
grow
Fresh Produce
vegetables
Theory of Change:
(Evidence Based Analysis of Alternatives)
• Should all the identified activities be tackled?
• What combination of interventions is most likely to bring about
the desired results and promote sustainable benefits?
• Ask the question: What evidence do you have about the causal
relationships? How strong and reliable is it? This is where you
feed in evidence gained through M&E & research.
• Which strategy will best support institutional strengthening
objectives?
• Various alternate strategies are analyzed and mapped
• Alternatives are then re-workshopped, showing the pros & cons
and a final strategy is selected
Example – Alternatives Analysis
Healthy
Lifestyle
OUT
IN
Weight loss
Regular
Exercise
Eat Correctly
Affordable
exercise routine
established
Develop a
Positive
Attitude
Effective
Plan time
Time
effectively
Planning
Deal with Past
Failures
Record of
daily food
intake
Eat less at
work
functions
Develop
Get key
Disciplined
disciplines
Healthy eating
plan
established
Vegetable
garden
established
Stop Buying
Fast Foods &
Save Money
Obtain
Nutritional
nutritional
Education
Education
Learn how to
make a quick
healthy meal
Learn how to
grow
vegetables
Step 5 – Develop Logic Model
• The final Objective Tree is used to start framing the
objectives hierarchy in the Logic Model.
Objective Tree
Logic Model
END
Outcome
Outputs
Activities
MEANS
Useful approach to break down work from
Outputs to Activities
It may be useful to
break down the
Outputs to Suboutputs before
identifying
activities
Outcome
Output
SubOutput
Output
SubOutput
SubOutput
SubOutput
Activity
Activity
Activity
Activity
Activity
Activity
Activity
Activity
Activity
Activity
Activity
Activity