Dr. Shahram Yazdani
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Brain Drain Dr. Shahram Yazdani Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences School of Medical Education Strategic Policy Sessions: 12 For every complex problem, there’s a simple, obvious answer that just happens to be wrong! H.L. Menken Dr. Shahram Yazdani 2 Between 150,000-180,000 Iranians try to immigrate by various means annually Dr. Shahram Yazdani 3 The latest figures released by the International Monetary Found (IMF) indicates that Iran ranks first in brain drain among 61 developing and less developed countries (LDC). Dr. Shahram Yazdani 4 Our part in others development ! Dr. Shahram Yazdani 1.434 million people (12%) out of the 12 million people who have science and engineering degrees in the U.S.A., are of foreign origin. Over 72% of these were originally born in a developing country. 23% of those having a doctorate are not U.S.A. born citizens This proportion in key areas such as engineering and computer sciences is 40% The SESTAT database of the National Science Foundation (NSF) 2005 5 Effect on mother land Dr. Shahram Yazdani For large countries like India and China, which dominate in terms of absolute numbers, skilled migration does not amount to a significant share of their educated workforces. Indeed, only 1.1 and 1.4 percent of India and China’s skilled labour forces respectively had moved to the USA in 1990, although additional evidence – suggests that these migrants come from the top end of the skill distribution. In Ghana, for example, over a quarter of the educated labour force lived in OECD countries in 1990, the share rises to over 60 percent for the Gambia and approaches 80 percent for Jamaica. 6 Dr. Shahram Yazdani China India Pakistan Mexico Turkey Iran Malaysia Population, millions 1238 979 131 95 63 62 22 Migration rate 1.4 1.1 2.4 10.3 1.4 14.7 4.4 Total expenditure on tertiary education, per student $ 1943 2014 448 3459 3365 398 4901 7 Islamic Republic of Iran Dr. Shahram Yazdani 8 Who are the expatriates? Of 125 Iranian high school students who have won awards at International Science Olympiads over the past three years, 90 of them are now at US universities (2001 figures) More than 150,000 Iranian surgeons and engineers now live in the United States Dr. Shahram Yazdani 9 Demographical profile of the Iranian immigrant community in the United States Dr. Shahram Yazdani 84% speak fluent English. 46% have a bachelors degree or higher 43% are in professional and managerial positions 35% in technical and administrative 48% are dual income earners 22% own their own businesses. Median family income is $55,501 (substantially above the national average of $35,492) and per capita income is $18,040. 92% have a mortgage. 10 Dr. Shahram Yazdani 11 Dr. Shahram Yazdani 12 Brain Flow Dr. Shahram Yazdani Expatriate Group SusceptibleStable Group Group 13 Brain Flow Internal Factors Dr. Shahram Yazdani 14 Disease vs. Symptom Migration of educated people is not the ‘disease’ It is the ‘symptom’ Dr. Shahram Yazdani Comparative Study Dr. Shahram Yazdani Country Russia Population X Mio 142 GDP x Mio $ 1,287,000 GDP/capita $ 8,230 GDP growth rate 7.3% Inflation 13.7% R&D spending as a % of GDP 1.2% R&D spending x Mio 15,444 R&D spending per capita $ 109 Researchers per mio pop. 3,494 Researchers pop. 496,148 Article output 2003 26,723 Article output per 100 researchers 5.4 Internet users x Mio. 6.0 Total journal market € 11,326,176 Total journal spend/researcher € 23 Iran $ 72 133,2 $ 1,850 $ 0.3% 414 $ 6 $ 698 50,326 3,276 6.5 4.8 € 20,000,000 € € 397 € China 1,313 6,449,000 4,580 9.1% 1.2% 1.1% 70,939 55 584 758,527 42,369 5.5 79.5 120,250,180 159 $ $ $ € € India 1,081 3,033,000 2,670 8.3% 3.8% 0.8% 24,264 22 99 107,019 18,169 16.0 18.5 54,614,500 510 UK 60 $ 1,666,000 $ 26,150 2.2% 1.4% 1.9% 31,654 $ 525 2,667 160,743 58,350 36.3 25.0 € 116,870,622 € 727 Sweden $ $ $ € € 9 238,300 26,050 1.7% 1.9% 4.6% 10,962 1,234 5,186 46,083 13,447 29.2 5.1 26,633,304 578 •UNESCO: http:www.uis.unesco.org/profiles/EN/GEN/countryProfile_en.aspx?code=3560 •www.irandoc.ac.ir Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs Selfactualization Needs Esteem Needs Love, Affection and Belongingness Needs Safety Needs Dr. Shahram Yazdani Physiological Needs. 17 Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs Selfactualization Needs Esteem Needs Love, Affection and Belongingness Needs Safety Needs Dr. Shahram Yazdani Physiological Needs. 50 meters of housing costs between 12,500,000 to more than 75,000,000 Toomans Marriage rate decreases and mean age of marriage increases significantly mainly due to financial problem There is intense demand for university places. The entrance exams are very competitive and Less than 15% of the approximately 1.5 million people who take the exams annually, actually begin studies. Unemployment, officially at 13 percent, is closer to 20 percent, according to independent economists. each year 270,000 university graduates enter the job market, whereas only 75,000 can be absorbed. Some 4,000 physicians, 14,000 midwives, and 17,000 nurses are unemployed, and hospitals are laying off personnel while 18 5,000 medical students graduate every year. Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs Selfactualization Needs Esteem Needs Love, Affection and Belongingness Needs Safety Needs Dr. Shahram Yazdani Physiological Needs. Perhaps more important, underemployment is the norm. The average engineer makes $150 to $250 a month, slightly less than the monthly income of a taxi driver and 10 times less than what he might have made some 20 years ago. Independent economists estimate that Iran needs to create close to 1 million jobs a year to keep up with its youthful population. In order for Iran to meet its high demand for jobs, up to $10 billion a year of productive investment will be required," 100,000-400,000 job per $1,000,000,000 Over 70 percent of the industrial companies is state-owned and small industries make up 92.6 percent of the total industrial sector Only 1.4 percent of employment creators posses the necessary credentials to manage 19 an industrial unit. Important variables for brain drain in Iran Dr. Shahram Yazdani Brain Flow External Factors Dr. Shahram Yazdani 21 The United States 22% of the worlds R&D workforce, 40% of the worlds GERD (Gross Expenditure in R&D) and mainstream science production 30-50% of the patents of technological innovation, in the world O.S.T. 1996 p341, UNESCO 1998, pp23-25 Dr. Shahram Yazdani 22 Intellectual Dilution Intellectual Pool (%) Group Generational MoreNormal More Brain Drain Transmission Iso-intellectual Skewness of atReproduction Distribution upper IQ range ofat Intellectual Marriage to Right Lower IQ IQ Range Capacity IQ Prevalence 115-129 1:6 - 1:40 Moderately Gifted 130-144 1:40 - 1:1000 Highly Gifted 145-159 1:1000 - 1:10,000 Exceptionally Gifted 160-179 1:10,000 - 1:1 million 180+ Fewer than 1:1 million Frequency Profoundly Gifted IQ Intellectual Capacity Mildly (or Basically) Gifted IQ Dr. Shahram Yazdani IQ Brain Drain Reproduction 23 Effect on unskilled employment There is an optimal balance between the number of skilled labor workforce unskilled labor workforce Brain Drain also leads to unskilled unemployment Dr. Shahram Yazdani 24 Brain Flow Dr. Shahram Yazdani 25 “Block” Option Dr. Shahram Yazdani Failed to Bring Feasible Effective Main Policy before 1980sorwas to Prevent or(Meyer Regulate Brain Drain Solutions et al. 1997). 26 “Compensate” Option Dr. Shahram Yazdani Cancel Compensate the Negative for: Effects Education Costs $ of BrainHigher Drain through Elementary and Middle Education Costs Taxation. Social Subsides 27 “Compensate” Option Theoretical Assumptions on which these Policies were Based are Wrong They basically referred to human capital approaches where the skilled person is conceived as an individual capital asset, made of all his/her qualifications and professional experience resulting of prior investments (Gary Becker). Dr. Shahram Yazdani The human capital approach reflects but a small part of the phenomenon. 28 “Return” Option Dr. Shahram Yazdani The “More” Option: Pool Unchanged Susceptible More Money More Respect More Opportunity 29 “Return” Option Dr. Shahram Yazdani The Republic of Korea has focused on encouraging skilled emigrants to return, rather than invest at home. Intensive recruiting programs search out older professionals and scholars and offer them salaries competitive with overseas incomes, better working conditions, and help with housing and children’s schooling. 30 “Return” Option Dr. Shahram Yazdani Visiting professor programs allow the Republic of Korea to tap the expertise of those uncertain about returning home for good. These initiatives, backed by the country’s improved economy, have produced strong results. In the 1960’s, just 16 percent of Korean scientists and engineers with doctorates from the United States returned to Korea. In the 1980’s, that share jumped to about 70 percent. 31 Intellectual Capital Social and Scientific Infrastructures Communicating And Supporting Networks Dr. Shahram Yazdani 32 “Scientific Diaspora” Option Dr. Shahram Yazdani Brain Gain Concept the expatriate skilled population may be considered as a potential asset 33 The Scientific Diaspora Option Dr. Shahram Yazdani It takes for granted that many of the expatriates are not likely to return. They have often settled abroad and built their professional as well as their personal life there. However, they may still be very concerned with the development of their country of origin, because of religious, cultural, family or other ties. The objective, then, is to create the links through which they could effectively and productively be connected to its development, without any physical temporary or permanent return. 34 The Scientific Diaspora Option Dr. Shahram Yazdani This type of distant cooperative work is now possible as cases of international research projects or multinational corporations’ (MNC). Relationships between expatriate intellectuals and their mother country have often existed in the past. What is new today, is that these sporadic, exceptional and limited links may now become systematic, dense and multiple. 35 The Scientific Diaspora Option Student/Scholarly Networks, Local Associations of Skilled Expatriates, Expert pool assistance through the Transfer of Knowledge Through Expatriate Nationals (TOKTEN) program of the UNDP Intellectual/Scientific Diaspora Networks. Dr. Shahram Yazdani Developing Established and organized 36 Networked Activities Dr. Shahram Yazdani Conferences Seminars Workshops Focus group discussions Social events such as dinners, new year Newsletter or news groups Joint developmental projects 37 “Absorb-Prevent” Option Dr. Shahram Yazdani 38 “Absorb-Prevent” Option Dr. Shahram Yazdani Investment on: Involve them in: Develop Education a Shared Vision Sustainable Development Process R&D Infrastructures 39 “Absorb-Prevent” Option Dr. Shahram Yazdani This option has been successfully realized in various new industrialized countries (NICs) such as Singapore and the Republic of Korea or big developing countries such as India and China (Charum, Meyer, 1999). Strong programs to repatriate many of their skilled nationals abroad have been put in place since 1980. They have created at home the networks in which these returnees could effectively find a place and be operational. 40 “Absorb-Prevent” Option Dr. Shahram Yazdani These countries are the ones that significantly invest in S&T material as well as human infrastructure. They had started to build the research and technico-industrial web which could appropriately sustain such R&D activities employing S&E. Obviously the success of that option depends very much on this specific capacity. Such a prerequisite is not easily matched by many developing countries. 41 Thank You ! Any Question ?
