Science and Technology
Foresight Planning
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences
School of Medical Education
Strategic Policy Sessions: 07
What is innovation policy?
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Dr. Shahram Yazdani
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“Innovation policies aim at improving the
capacity to innovate of firms, networks,
industries and entire economies.
Innovation is a process which involves flows
of technology and information between
multiple agents, including firms of all sizes
and public and private research institutes.
Innovation policy’s principal aim is to
facilitate the interaction and communication
among these various actors.
What is innovation policy?
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Innovation policy is therefore different
from science policy, which is concerned
with the development of science and the
training of scientists, and from technology
policy, which has as its aims the support,
enhancement and development of
technology”.
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
History of STI Policies
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Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Science policy in the Western world was established
in the immediate aftermath of World War II. Initially,
the main area of intervention and action was just
science.
In the late 1960s, technology emerged more clearly
as an area of concern; due to budgetary constraints
there was a need to be more efficient in the allocation
of resources and to ameliorate the impact of
technological change on the overall economy and
society.
From the 1980s onwards, there has been a shift in
government policy agencies to a focus on innovation
policy.
Classification of STI Policies
(Christopher Freeman)
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Dr. Shahram Yazdani
40s and 50s supply-side policies: focused on
strengthening S&T capabilities, especially
science.
60s and 70s demand-side policies: aiming at
creating market needs for technology.
80s onwards: policies designed to provide
effective linkages between supply and
demand, and to respond to a new
technological paradigm based on information
and communication technologies.
Different innovation policies
(Dodgson and Bessant)
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
1. Direct financial support (grants, loans
guarantees),
2. Indirect financial support (venture capital),
3. Information (databases, consultancy
services),
4. Scientific and technical infrastructure (public
research labs, research grants),
5. Educational infrastructure (general
education and training system),
Different innovation policies
(Dodgson and Bessant)
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
6. Public procurement (national or local
governments),
7. Taxation (company, personal, tax credits for
R&D),
8. Regulation (patents, environment control),
9. Public enterprise (innovation by public-owned
industries),
10. Political (regional policies, awards and honours
for innovation),
11. Public services (telecom, transport), and
12. Trade (trade agreements, tariffs).
Foresight Definition
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Dr. Shahram Yazdani
A foresight exercise involves a systematic
process in which an attempt is made “…to
look into the longer-term future of science,
technology, and economy and society
with the aim of identifying the areas of
strategic research and the emerging
generic technologies likely to yield the
greatest economic and social benefit.”
(Irvine and Martin, 1984).
Foresight as a policy tool
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Foresight is a policy tool whose aim is to
improve coordination between different
elements of innovation capacity or
between different stakeholders whose
activities affect innovation and long-term
future of S&T and economy.
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Foresight
Planning
Strategic
Planning
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Time Horizon-for the enterprise
Long
Mid
Short
Extrapolation
Enterprise
Now
Business ‘Space’
Time Horizon of Foresight
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The future cannot be
predicted, but it can be
invented.
Dennis Gabor
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Characteristics of Foresight
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
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Clear definition of the nature of the technology
considered
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Projections of probable advances in the
technology
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Projection of the rates at which these advances
will occur
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Definition of potential follow-on technologies
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Projections of how large the market for the
emerging technology will be and how that
market will develop
Characteristics of Foresight
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
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Identification of the organizations currently involved
in the manufacture, distribution, operation, and
maintenance of similar or related technologies
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The implications of the advances in technology and
development of market requirements to the country
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Identification of trends, events, or decisions that
might serve as drivers or constraints on the
projected advances in technology, development of
markets, or implications of these advances and
developments.
Clusters of Foresight
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Foresight Experiences
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Foresight Sources of Information
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Dr. Shahram Yazdani
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Futurists
Scientific Publications
Universities, Institutes
Government analyses, studies
Venture Capital Community
Patent Analysis
Technical Community
Genius Forecasting
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Dr. Shahram Yazdani
The term “genius forecasting” is used to
describe the generation of a vision of the
future through the insights of a gifted and
respected individual.
One of the problems of futures research has
been the emergence from time to time of
guru figures who, for a while, attract
considerable attention and interest as
prophets or as proponents of particular
directions of change.
Examples of Genius Forecasters
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Gordon Rattray
Taylor: Matrist society
Alvin Toffler: Future Shock and The Third
Wave, Power Shift
John Naisbitt: Megatrends.
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Relevance Trees and Morphological
Analysis
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Dr. Shahram Yazdani
“Normative forecasting” methods, being
developed within the context of large
managerial and technological efforts.
For instance, “how can we get a human
being on to and safely back from the Moon?”
These methods are used to identify what is
needed to achieve future objectives – what
the circumstances might be, what the key
capabilities, actions, and knowledge
requirements would be.
Relevance Trees and Morphological
Analysis
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Dr. Shahram Yazdani
A relevance tree subdivides a broad topic
into increasingly smaller subtopics. This is
presented in the form of a tree-like diagram.
The result is a mapping of the various critical
aspects of a system, or of a problem, or the
possible solutions to a problem.
Morphological analysis involves mapping “all
possible” solutions to a problem, so as to
determine different future possibilities. It has
been used for new product development and
in constructing scenarios.
The Delphi Method
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Delphi involves a survey of opinion – in
principle this should be expert opinion.
But it is a survey that is designed to feed
information back to its respondents, not
just to provide material for processing by
data analysts.
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Trend Extrapolation
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Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Trend extrapolation is one of the most
widely used of all forecasting techniques.
Formal statistical methods of trend
extrapolation have been developed, of
varying degrees of sophistication.
Many forecasts that stem from expert
judgment are probably actually achieved
by an impressionistic trend extrapolation
of one sort or another, too.
Simulation Modeling
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A computer model represents a system in
terms of its key components and
relationships, then, and can be used to
project how the system will operate over
time, or as a result of specific
interventions.
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Evolution of Simulation Modeling
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
What is the role of Panels?
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Dr. Shahram Yazdani
The Steering Committee of a Foresight exercise
will often be composed of high-level individuals
whose time is already in high demand; and the
tasks of managing and synthesizing the overall
Foresight process is itself a daunting one.
Thus it is common for national and regional
Foresight Programs, which set out to address a
wide agenda, to have a layer of Panels who
implement Foresight analyses and produce
analyses in a number of specific areas.
Which Panels?
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Dr. Shahram Yazdani
In S&T Foresight, these areas are typically
concerned with discrete technologies (e.g.
ICT, biotechnology) or application areas (e.g.
agriculture, transport).
In more socially oriented Foresight, and
indeed in some S&T Foresight activities,
there are Panels who deal with more
horizontal topics (e.g. environmental issues,
demography).
Panels in the UK Foresight
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Panels in the UK Foresight
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Scenario Workshops
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Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Scenario workshops are a particularly important
component of many conventional exercises.
As the name implies, the activity of scenario
workshops involves creating or elaborating on
scenarios.
Such scenarios should also possess greater
legitimacy than those generated by a smaller
expert group or visionary guru.
The resulting scenarios are not the main product
of the work (though they may be important and
particularly visible outputs).
Weak signals analysis
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Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Weak signals analysis is a linked method which
uses horizon and environmental scanning and
issues management techniques.
Regions often lack a systematic approach for
determining where on the horizon they should
be looking, how to interpret weak signals they
pick up, and how to allocate limited resources
for scanning activity.
The combination of horizon scanning and weak
signals analysis provides an important input to
the scoping and focus of the foresight activity.
Horizon Scanning &Weak signals
analysis
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Dr. Shahram Yazdani
“the systematic examination of potential
threats, opportunities and likely future
developments which are at the margins of
current thinking and planning.
Horizon scanning may explore novel and
unexpected issues, as well as persistent
problems or trends.
Overall, horizon scanning is intended to
improve the robustness of health systems’
policies and evidence base”.
Science-to-Business Lag Time
Industry
1-3
Product
Institutions, Industry, Government
3-6
Technology
Universities, Government
Science
5-20
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Years
What is a critical technology?
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
1. Critical technology as generic and precompetitive recognizes the technology concerned
as useful in many applications and likely to
produce a wide array of returns not tied to any
specific application. The technology is likely to
have a synergistic or catalytic effect elsewhere.
2. Critical technology defined as the ratedetermining factor for specific applications
connects the technology directly to some process
or product; criticality is then not inherent in the
technology itself, but relates to the output from
the system and the enabling role of the
technology.
What is a critical technology?
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
3. Critical technology viewed as a
component of national (or company) selfsufficiency treats the technology in a
wider context and relates particularly to
“competitiveness.”
4. Critical technology as “state-of-the-art”;
this equates ‘critical’ with ‘advanced’ and
by implication high technology.
Top Patent Classes in 2001
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Drugs
Semicond. Micro-bio
Solid St. Misc. Mtl.
Comp
Interfaces
Chips
Optics
Memory
Network
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Main questions to answer
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How to invest money ?
How to prioritize R&D budget?
How to compete?
How to identify growth platforms?
How to train technical people?
How to increase technology synergism?
What are the threats?
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Define The Question
Technology
Foresight Process
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Define The Question
Analyze The Global Trends
Technology
Foresight Process
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Define The Question
Technology
Foresight Process
Analyze The Global Trends
Science
Dynamism
Technology
Dynamism
Market
Dynamism
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Define The Question
Technology
Foresight Process
Analyze The Global Trends
Science
Dynamism
Technology
Dynamism
Market
Dynamism
Growth Opportunities
National
Capacities
Technology
Interaction
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Technology
Foresight Process
Define The Question
Analyze The Global Trends
Science
Dynamism
Technology
Dynamism
Market
Dynamism
Growth Opportunities
National
Capacities
Technology
Interaction
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Emerging Growth
Platforms
Technology
Foresight Process
Define The Question
Analyze The Global Trends
Science
Dynamism
Technology
Dynamism
Market
Dynamism
Growth Opportunities
National
Capacities
Technology
Interaction
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Emerging Growth
Platforms
Types of Technology:
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Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Driver Technology- a major broad technology
that will drive and pace applications as well as
other technologies
Emergent Technology- an application area
focused technology that emerges from one or
more other technologies
Strategic Technology- a broad and long range
technology that will have several, mostly
unanticipated applications in an enterprise
50
Emergent
Application Needs
40
Strategic
30
20
10
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Driver
Isolated
technology
0
10
20
30
Enabling Power
40
50
60
Major Technology Drivers and
Opportunities for 2002-2010
Major Technology
Drivers
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Dr. Shahram Yazdani
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Computational modeling
and simulation
Advanced Materials
Micro- and Nanofabrication
Optical systems
Bioscience
Software design and
development
Emergent Technology
Opportunities
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Future Computing
Communications
Nanotech
applications
Energy
Biotechnology
Medical Devices
Future Microcomputers
Products
Si, SiGe
GaAs
Applied tech.
SiC
Organics
Tech. Dev.
Spintronics
Nanotubes
Quantum
Computing Diamond!
Molecular
Applied res.
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Basic res.
1
2
3
4
5
10
Time (years) to market
15 20
Technology
Foresight Process
Define The Question
Analyze The Global Trends
Science
Dynamism
Technology
Dynamism
Market
Dynamism
Growth Opportunities
Technology
Interaction
National
Capacities
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Emerging Growth
Platforms
Nanotechnologies
Microelectronics
Molecular Electronics
Advanced Materials
Development
Nanoparticle
Development
Sensors
FAB Technology
Carbon Nanotubes
and Buckyballs
Advanced Microscopy: AFM,
STM, ….
Nano-Biotech
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Nano-patterning
Nano- and MicroFabrication
Computer
Modeling and
Simulation
Technology Interaction Matrix
AFM,STM
Micro-elec.
Comp. Sim.
FAB tech.
Sensors
Adv. Ptcls.
Moletronics
Biotech
Nanotubes
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Adv. Mat.
Pacer, Gating
2nd order effect
Technology Interaction Matrix
AFM,STM
Micro-elec.
Comp. Sim.
FAB tech.
Sensors
Adv. Ptcls.
Moletronics
Biotech
Nanotubes
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Adv. Mat.
Sensor Technology Is a Technology with Many Required Antecedent Technologies
Technology Interaction Matrix
AFM,STM
Micro-elec.
Comp. Sim.
FAB tech.
Sensors
Adv. Ptcls.
Moletronics
Biotech
Nanotubes
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Adv. Mat.
Computer Simulation Technology Is a Technology with Minimal Required Antecedent
Technologies
Technology Interaction Matrix
AFM,STM
Micro-elec.
Comp. Sim.
FAB tech.
Sensors
Adv. Ptcls.
Moletronics
Biotech
Nanotubes
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Adv. Mat.
Advanced Material Technology is Pacer, Gating or Driver for Many Other Technologies
Technology Interaction Matrix
AFM,STM
Micro-elec.
Comp. Sim.
FAB tech.
Sensors
Adv. Ptcls.
Moletronics
Biotech
Nanotubes
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Adv. Mat.
Biotechnology is not Pacer, Gating or Driver for Other Technologies
50
Sensors
Emergent
Application Needs
40
Molecular
Electronics
30
Nanotechnology
FAB tech
Biotech
Microelectronics
Strategic
Particles
AFM/STM
Nanotubes
Advanced
Mtls.
20
10
Driver
Dr. Shahram Yazdani
Computer
Simulation
0
10
20
30
Enabling Power
40
50
60
Thank You !
Any Question ?