HIT241 - RISK MANAGEMENT
Introduction
Project risk management is the art and science
of identifying, assigning, and responding to risk
throughout the life of a project and in the best
interests of meeting project objectives.
Risk management is often overlooked on
projects, but it can help improve project
success by helping select good projects,
determining project scope, and developing
realistic estimates.
CDU – School of Information Technology
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HIT241 - RISK MANAGEMENT
What is Risk?
A dictionary definition of risk is “the possibility
of loss or injury”.
Project risk involves understanding potential
problems that might occur on the project and
how they might impede project success.
Risk management is like a form of
insurance; it is an investment.
CDU – School of Information Technology
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Risks & Opportunities
Try to balance risks and opportunities
Risks
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Opportunities
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Risk Utility
Risk utility or risk tolerance is the amount of
satisfaction or pleasure received from a potential
payoff:
 Utility rises at a decreasing rate for a person
who is risk-averse.
 Those who are risk-seeking have a higher
tolerance for risk and their satisfaction
increases when more payoff is at stake.
 The risk neutral approach achieves a balance
between risk and payoff.
CDU – School of Information Technology
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Risk Utility Function & Risk Preference
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What is Project Risk Management?
The goal of project risk management is to minimize
potential risks while maximizing potential
opportunities. Major processes include:
 Risk identification: determining which risks are likely
to affect a project.
 Risk quantification: evaluating risks to assess the
range of possible project outcomes.
 Risk response development: taking steps to enhance
opportunities and developing responses to threats.
 Risk response control: responding to risks over the
course of the project.
CDU – School of Information Technology
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Common Sources of Risk on IT Projects
Several studies show that IT projects share
some common sources of risk.
The Standish Group developed an IT success
potential scoring sheet based on potential risks.
McFarlan developed a risk questionnaire to
help assess risk.
Other broad categories of risk help identify
potential risks.
CDU – School of Information Technology
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IT Success Potential Scoring Sheet
Success Criterion
Points
User Involvement
19
Executive Management support
16
Clear Statement of Requirements
15
Proper Planning
11
Realistic Expectations
10
Smaller Project Milestones
9
Competent Staff
8
Ownership
6
Clear Visions and Objectives
3
Hard-Working, Focused Staff
3
Total
100
CDU – School of Information Technology
Standish Group
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1.
HIT241 - RISK
MANAGEMENT
2.
McFarlan’s
Risk
Questionnaire
3.
4.
What is the project estimate in calendar (elapsed) time?
( ) 12 months or less
Low = 1 point
( ) 13 months to 24 months
Medium = 2 points
( ) Over 24 months
High = 3 points
What is the estimated number of person days for the system?
( ) 12 to 375
Low = 1 point
( ) 375 to 1875
Medium = 2 points
( ) 1875 to 3750
Medium = 3 points
( ) Over 3750
High = 4 points
Number of departments involved (excluding IT)
( ) One
Low = 1 point
( ) Two
Medium = 2 points
( ) Three or more
High = 3 points
Is additional hardware required for the project?
( ) None
Low = 0 points
( ) Central processor type change
Low = 1 point
( ) Peripheral/storage device changes Low = 1
( ) Terminals
Med = 2
( ) Change of platform, for example High = 3
PCs replacing mainframes
CDU – School of Information Technology
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Market, Financial, & Technology Risk
Market risk: Will the new product be useful to
the organisation or marketable to others? Will
users accept and use the product or service?
Financial risk: Can the organisation afford to
undertake the project? Is this project the best
way to use the company’s financial resources?
Technology risk: Is the project technically
feasible? Could the technology be obsolete
before a useful product can be produced?
CDU – School of Information Technology
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Risk Identification
Risk identification is the process of
understanding what potential unsatisfactory
outcomes are associated with a particular
project.
Several risk identification tools include:

Checklists,

Flowcharts, and

Interviews.
CDU – School of Information Technology
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Potential Risk Conditions & Knowledge Area
Knowledge Area
Risk Conditions
Integration
Inadequate planning; poor resource allocation; poor integration
management; lack of post-project review
Scope
Poor definition of scope or work packages; incomplete definition
of quality requirements; inadequate scope control
Time
Errors in estimating time or resource availability; poor allocation
and management of float; early release of competitive products
Cost
Estimating errors; inadequate productivity, cost, change, or
contingency control; poor maintenance, security, purchasing, etc.
Quality
Poor attitude toward quality; substandard
design/materials/workmanship; inadequate quality assurance
program
Human Resources
Poor conflict management; poor project organization and
definition of responsibilities; absence of leadership
Communications
Carelessness in planning or communicating; lack of consultation
with key stakeholders
Risk
Ignoring risk; unclear assignment of risk; poor insurance
management
Procurement
Unenforceable conditions or contract clauses; adversarial relations
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Risk Quantification
Risk quantification or risk analysis is the process of
evaluating risks to assess the range of possible project
outcomes.
It determines the risk’s probability of occurrence and
its impact to the project if the risk does occur.
Risk quantification techniques include:
 Expected monetary value analysis,
 Calculation of risk factors,
 PERT estimations,
 Simulations, and
 Expert judgment.
CDU – School of Information Technology
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Expected Monetary Value (EMV)
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Chart Showing High-, Medium-, and Low-Risk Technologies
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Simulation for Risk Analysis
Simulation uses a representation or model of a
system to analyze the expected behavior or
performance of the system.
Monte Carlo analysis simulates a model’s
outcome many time to provide a statistical
distribution of the calculated results.
CDU – School of Information Technology
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Expert Judgment
Many organisations rely on the intuitive feelings
and past experience of experts to help identify
potential project risks.
The Delphi method is a technique for deriving
a consensus among a panel of experts to
make predictions about future developments.
CDU – School of Information Technology
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Risk Response Development
Risk avoidance: eliminating a specific threat or
risk, usually by eliminating its causes.
Risk acceptance: accepting the consequences
should a risk occur.
Risk mitigation: reducing the impact of a risk
event by reducing the probability of its occurrence.
CDU – School of Information Technology
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General Risk Mitigation Strategies
Technical Risks
Cost Risks
Schedule Risks
Emphasize team support
and avoid stand alone
project structure
Increase the frequency of
project monitoring
Increase the frequency of
project monitoring
Increase project manager
authority
Use WBS and PERT/CPM
Use WBS and PERT/CPM
Improve problem handling
and communication
Improve communication,
project goals understanding
and team support
Select the most experienced
project manager
Increase the frequency of
project monitoring
Increase project manager
authority
Use WBS and PERT/CPM
General Risk Mitigation Strategies for Technical, Cost, and Schedule Risks
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Risk and Contingency
A risk management plan documents the
procedures for managing risk throughout the
project.
Contingency plans are predefined actions that
the project team will take if an identified risk event
occurs.
Contingency reserves are provisions held by the
project sponsor for possible changes in project
scope or quality that can be used to mitigate cost
and/or schedule risk.
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Questions for a Risk Management Plan
Why is it important to take/not take this risk in relation to
the project objectives?
What specifically is the risk and what are the risk
mitigation deliverables?
How is the risk going to be mitigated? (What risk
mitigation approach is to be used?)
Who are the individuals responsible for implementing
the risk management plan?
When will the milestones associated with the mitigation
approach occur?
How much is required in terms of resources to mitigate
risk?
CDU – School of Information Technology
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Risk Response Control
Risk response control involves executing the
risk management processes and the risk
management plan to respond to risk events.
Risks must be monitored based on defined
milestones and decisions made regarding risks
and mitigation strategies.
Sometimes workarounds or unplanned
responses to risk events are needed when there
are no contingency plans.
CDU – School of Information Technology
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Top 10 Risk Item Tracking
Top 10 risk item tracking is a tool for maintaining
an awareness of risk throughout the life of a
project.
Establish a periodic review of the top 10 project
risk items.
List the current ranking, previous ranking, number
of times the risk appears on the list over a period
of time, and a summary of progress made in
resolving the risk item.
CDU – School of Information Technology
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Top 10 Risk Item Tracking
Monthly Ranking
Risk Item
This
Last
Month
Month
Inadequate
planning
1
2
4
Working on revising the
entire project plan
Poor definition
of scope
2
3
3
Holding meetings with
project customer and
sponsor to clarify scope
Absence of
leadership
3
1
2
Just assigned a new
project manager to lead
the project after old one
quit
Poor cost
estimates
4
4
3
Revising cost estimates
Poor time
estimates
5
5
3
Revising schedule
estimates
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Number
Risk Resolution
of Months Progress
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Software to Assist in Risk Management
Databases can keep track of risks.
Spreadsheets can aid in tracking and quantifying
risks.
More sophisticated risk management software
helps develop models and uses simulation to
analyze and respond to various project risks.
CDU – School of Information Technology
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Sample Monte Carlo Simulation for Project Schedule
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Sample Monte Carlo Simulations Results for Project Costs
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Conclusion
Unlike crisis management, good project risk
management often goes unnoticed.
Well-run projects appear to be almost effortless,
but a lot of work goes into running a project
well.
Project managers should strive to make their
jobs look easy to reflect the results of wellrun projects.
CDU – School of Information Technology
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