September 2013 Space Universal Modular Architecture (SUMO) Setting the Environment for Industry-Consensus Standards Bernie Collins ODNI/AT&F 2 SUMO Agenda Introduction Outreach and Support: Government Outreach and Support: Industry Cost Savings and Other Benefits Transition Plan 3 Space Universal MOdular Architecture (SUMO) Goal: Reduce the cost of satellites and help the US industry be more responsive in a growing international space market What: Interoperability of satellite components through universalized environments and standardized data and electrical interfaces How: Leverage existing & evolving standards to help US industry coalesce around industry consensus standards (which could become international) ODNI NRO AFRL SMC NASA Collaboration SUMO Certified Components Standards Process Space Universal MOdular architecture SUMO Transition Plan Plug & Play • • • • US Space Industrial Base More Competitive Internationally Larger Addressable Market Less Time to Market/Orbit Increased Innovation US Government Buyer • Reduced Acquisition Costs • Enhanced Capabilities Industry 4 Component Interfaces Defined by the Application Supplier A Prime X Component Interfaces Defined by Industry Consensus Supplier A Prime X OR OR Supplier B OR Prime Y Supplier B Prime Y OR Supplier C OR Prime Z Supplier C Prime Z OR Catalog, Common, or Custom Bus Modular Bus with Open Interfaces 5 Software Layering Diagram SUMO defines the interfaces through industry consensus 6 Tenets for Success • Leverage Existing Standards and Think Global • Space Industry Consensus • Avoid Commoditization – Protect Intellectual Property • Natural Break-In Points for Gradual Introduction – Avoid disrupting current programs 7 SUMO Evolutionary Path AFRL: NGSIS DARPA: F6 Experiment Opportunities $300M ORS: MSV Risk Reduction Opportunities $50M Leverage past and present government and industry investments to progress from proprietary, custom architectures to modular, open network architectures Industry: Industry: Time-Triggered SPA Variants Gigabit Ethernet Industry: Industry: IRAD Universal >$100M Qualification Industry: Integrated Modular Architecture NASA: Common Instrument Interface NASA: SpaceAge Bus $4M, 13 Missions Environments Industry: Platform Commonality Framework Collaboration Fora: SMC: MONA and SNAP for Hosted payload interfaces AFRL: MONARCH (SPA) $130M NASA: Core Flight Executive $12M, 20 Missions EXISTING: - Integrated Transition Team -SUMO Special Interest Group* -CCSDS Spacecraft Onboard Interface Services -One-on-one technical interchanges DEFINED: -Letter of Intent -Space Industrial Base Council Working Group -DPA Title III Presidential Determination DEVELOPING: -Cooperative R&D Agreements -Consortium for Space Industry Standards On-going Initiatives Have Many Similarities *http://mailman.ccsds.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/uspacesig 8 Space Avionics Open Interface Architecture (SAVOIR)* SAVOIR: an undertaking led by space European Agencies and Industries aiming at promoting Space Avionics based on Open Interfaces • In its first phase, SAVOIR has federated the space avionics community around the concept of reference architectures, standard interfaces, and generic specifications • SAVOIR second phase includes the refinement of reference architectures, the elaboration of a product portfolio, and the production of two sets of generic specifications • The maturity and completeness of the SAVOIR concept will be assessed by building lab demonstrators integrating a consistent set of items *From ESA Website (http://www.congrex.nl/11c22/) 9 Business Case from Cost Analysis • Aerospace Corp modeled US Satellite Market to quantify savings on cost of bus – Model included capture rate, technology insertion, obsolescence, integration complexity, organizational complexity, etc. – Model reviewed twice by ODNI CAIG • Findings: – Over 17 years and 442 satellites • Savings was $18.8B (29%) • Payback Period was 9 Years Component LEO1 3 GPS Receivers Transponders Style Style A Style B Style C Style D Style A Style B Style C Style D Style E Style A Style B Style A Style B Style A Style B Style A Style B Style A Style B Style A Integrated CDH Style A Processor Boards Solar Cells Battery Cell Main Engine Maneuver Thrusters RCS Thrusters Style A Style A Style A Style A Torque Rods Reaction Wheel/CMGs Sun Sensors Magnetometers Star Trackers IMUs Avgerage Satellite Quantity Per Year Style A Style A SV Class (Component Qty per SV) LEO2 LEO3 LEO4 GEO1 GEO2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 1 2 2 6 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 2 2 5 6 8 8 8 4 752 1 5 2372 2 6 2959 2 8 11090 13 8 9274 24 1 8 19895 28 1 4 4 4 8 6 12 6 12 5.5 1.2 11.4 2.3 14.8 6.8 1 1 1 1 1 Year Total 17 4 34 7 17 49 9 59 27 33 219 6 29 6 72 6 72 6 29 77 20 Years Total 330 72 684 138 330 984 184 1184 544 660 4380 110 572 120 1436 110 1436 110 572 1546 288 5752 288 338763 606 22 5752 6775264 12124 432 130 350 2592 7000 LEO 3-4, GEO 1-2 Government & Commercial Business Case (100% Capture) – Commercial space has the greatest savings due to high volume (learning) – Government savings reduced by low volume (learning) and organizational complexity • Not all SUMO benefits were monetized – Net present value through ease of reconfigurability should increase Key Assumptions: Cost Savings by Sponsor ($M) • 100% Capture Business Case (Bus only) • Government (3 organizations) + commercial satellites (1 organization) • Government develops satellte bus separately from commercial satellte bus • LEO 3, LEO 4, GEO 1 and GEO 2 only • 442 satellites over 17 years • Satellite build = 5 to 7 years Results: Potential Total Cost Savings is 29% • • • • Business Case Closes Payback Period= 9 Years(FY22) Total Cost Savings = $18.8B Cumulative Costs Savings = 29% 10 …a word about the Cost Model • Modeled full plug and play – Industry has made clear they are not ready for full plug and play; SUMO cost analysis will differ but this model gives a first approximation of savings • Modeled 5 to 7 years satellite bus acquisition – Industry feedback indicates 2 to 3 years is reasonable…would accelerate crossover point • Modeled the costs of two full satellites – New approach models delta costs on top of funded project…reduces upfront NRE • NRO not modeled to gain learning from commercial industry – Commercial industry buying 20 satellites per year • Modeled increased organizational conflict as more participants engaged and provided input – Reduced savings by 30%; realistic for the first decade but reasonable to expect conflicts to be resolved over time (based on MilSTD-1553 experience) An Average of 29% Savings on the Cost of a Bus is Significant 11 Potential Advantages Beyond Cost Savings • Mission Assurance • Increased Cost Sharing with Standard Interfaces for Hosted Payload • Multi-mission Flexibility; Mission Reconfigurability • Reduced Build Schedule • Plug-n-play Enabled Innovation and Technology Insertion • Enhanced Monitoring and Anomaly Identification and Resolution • Higher Data Rate Potential for New Capabilities and Additional Revenue Stream Industries Which Standardize Interfaces Often see Growth and Improved Performance 12 Government Outreach and Support Goal: understand policy & budget drivers, and industrial base policy issues. Government Buyers & Stakeholders: Focus on affordability, responsiveness and ability to maintain programs of record during budget driven era. NASA DoD IC Policy • Deputy Administrator, Ch Eng, Ch Tech, GSFC Administrator are very supportive. Representative to CCSDS. • Iterating on SUMO Transition Plan, developed SpaceAGE Bus and Core Flight Executive • AT&L is very supportive. Helping SUMO propose for Title-III funds. • AFSPC/CV is a “big fan of interface standards”. • SMC/XR is developing industry-driven MONA (a part of SUMO); iterating SUMO transition plan. AFRL created SPA. • SMC also asked prime to investigate “universal” components • PDDNI and ADNI/AT&F full support. Released CIG language. • NRO is looking for components which could be “universalized”; conducted modular bus study. • OSTP supporting SUMO. • NSC and OMB are very supportive. • DoC (including ITA and NIST) are engaged. 13 Collaboration with NASA, SMC, & NRO UNCLASSIFIED How the Space Community Can Reap the Benefits of Modular Open Network Architecture (MONA) A Perspective from NASA on Standardization and Commonality Jonathan.J.Wilmot@NASA.gov Glenn.P.Rakow@NASA.gov Dr. Roberta Ewart (SMC/XR) 8 April 2013 UNCLASSIFIED Seeking strategies to influence industry to provide modular, open networked space capabilities Developing approaches to overcome key challenges Utilize innovative acq approaches and small, strategic investments Business case must be acceptable to industry Step-in/step-out influence SUMO Workshop Briefing 28 Goal of reducing cost on spacecraft w/o negatively impacting science return, system reliability, operations Adopting an approach to leverage standards and create commonality in software, hardware, interfaces and tools Approach is vendor agnostic, allows for evolution and technology insertion A modular bus with standard, open interfaces will drive down NRE A Unified Mindset with Collaborative Interaction Growing Across the Government 14 Industry Outreach and Support Interaction through Request for Information (RFI) on FedBizOps, several SIA & AIA sponsored workshops, conferences, site visits, telecoms and questionnaires Satellite Operators: Support - Potential improvement on Return on Investment and Net Present Value - Also support buying services versus systems; Support hosted payloads - Encourage commercial best practices Primes & Integrators: Conditionally Support - Concerned about Reduced Profit; Suggested FFP acquisitions - Prefer to promote proprietary solutions; will comply if gov’t requires SUMO - Need government funding to compensate for long term return (~ 9 years) - Very supportive of Common Qual Environment; ready to engage - Also support Stable requirements; Risk tolerance Component Manufacturers: Strongly Support - Stabilize the industrial base; lower NRE; improve competitiveness - Common processes (testing) for hardware will expand margins - Avoid commoditization; prefer implementation on new products - Interface standards reduce barriers to market entry Satellite Integration Subs: Strongly Support - Somewhat biased; confirmed that SUMO is technically feasible and can reduce costs and assembly times End to End (E2E) Service Providers: Ambivalent - Buy services versus systems; learn from commercial buyers - More dialogue with industry Industry unanimously noted that government commitment and funding is needed. 15 Why Many in Industry Support SUMO* • Bus design with interoperable components allow design emphasis on payload technologies • Suppliers can increase their production rates, margins and performance • Common qualification environments diminishes inventory risk, and improves quality • Increased use of fixed priced contracts for bus allows primes more latitude for controlling margins • Simplifies bus integration which allows innovation, reduces schedules and increases Net Present Value • Enhances global responsiveness through participation in international standards processes • Addresses cyber security risk • Public/private partnerships partially mitigate corporate upfront capital risk • Realistic, logical transition plan uses natural break-in points for gradual introduction • Interfaces will be carefully standardized to protect intellectual property and promote innovation • Step-in/step-out approach encourages industry-consensus standards and product differentiation A modular, open architecture such as SUMO presents a Space Industry Dilemma *Based on interviews and written responses 16 Notional SUMO Transition Plan • The Transition Plan is “notional” because it was created by a small, experienced team; not yet by the executing agencies – Comprised of former Assistant Secretary of the Air Force (Acquisition), Deputy Under Secretary for Space, Director of Space Transportation (NASA/HQ), Director of SIGINT Acquisition (NRO), VP of Space Systems, NASA Programs (Industry) • Proposes Executive Coordination by Space Industrial Base Council – Comprised of DoD(AT&L), DNI/AT&F, USAF, NASA, NRO, MDA, NOAA • Phased to achieve early gains with regionalized qualification environment while defining Architecture of Standards for interfaces • Establishes role for certification agent and certification process • Progresses from interface definition to interface development to bench test to demo flight to program of record • Plan tied to FYDP budget cycle; budget profiles aligned to sources – Proposed sources include DPA Title III, Industry, and Executing Agents 17 Notional SUMO Transition Plan FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 F CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20 CY21 CY22 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 FY Budget Cycle Windows FY15 Bgt Cycle FY17 Bgt Cycle FY19 Bgt Cycle FY21 Bgt Cycle FY16 Bgt Cycle FY18 Bgt Cycle FY20 Bgt Cycle FY22 Bgt Cycle Exec Coord (SIBC) LOIs SIGNED • Agency LOIs/MoAs • Agency Budget Coord (annual)FY15 Universalization/CQE MoAs SIGNED FY16 K/O 1 - Regional Components 3 - Play Side of SUMO • Proto-Flight • Programs of Record (POR) SUMO-Next FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 D … D D D D US SUMO & EDS R2 INT’L K/O LEGEND DRFT AGNT FNL 2c - Certification Program • Define Process & Agent • Execute Certification 2d - Plug Side of SUMO • Demonstration Prgms (Bench) … D 2a/b - SUMO AoS & EDS Dev CCSDS (Qtrly) FY18 D D 1 - Universal Components FY17 1st 5th B = Submit Bgt S = Start Work D = Deliver = Multiple Deliveries 12th … B S B B … D S D D ACQ … D FINAL PLAN Initial Partial Full D S DRFT PLAN SUMO Objective Starting … D EXECUTION 18 Way-Forward Highlights • • Develop a Presidential Determination for Title III Funding Getting agency engagement on near-term tasks including: – Coordinating Letter Of Intent and developing a Memorandum of Agreement – Supporting Space Industrial Base Council (SIBC) Integrated Transition Team and Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) forums with assigned personnel – Expanding US SUMO Special Interest Group and Industry Consensus Fora • • • Coordinate with Agencies for Transition plan to include fiscal programming Define and develop Regionalization/Universalization Common Qual Environment initiatives Gain AIAA (and CCSDS) engagement on leading three aspects of SUMO AoS development – Electronic Data Sheets, Physical Electrical Interfaces, Data (SW Stack) • Refine and Validate Budget analysis Advance Stakeholders from “Interested” to “Committed by Action” 19 BACK UPS 20 EU Standardized External Power Supply • In 2009 several government, consumer and industry initiatives resulted in the European Union's specification of a common External Power Supply (EPS) for use with data-enabled mobile phones sold in the EU. – – The "external power supply" is the AC power adapter that converts household AC electricity voltages to the much lower DC voltages needed to charge a mobile phone's internal battery. Although compliance is voluntary, a majority of the world's largest mobile phone manufacturers have agreed to make their applicable mobile phones compatible with the EU's common External Power Supply. From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_External_Power_Supply 21 The Market Leader’s Dilemma: Diminish an Existing Capability to Develop a New Capability? Custom Bus is here Period of Fine-tuning Capability Period of Compounded Innovation Modular Bus is here Period of Early Development Time Adapted From: Innovator’s Dilemma by Clayton Christensen 22