Geo-spatial Electrification Planning for Myanmar Sustainable Engineering Lab Director: Vijay Modi Department of Mechanical Engineering (SEAS) and Earth Institute, Columbia University Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar, November 22, 2013 1 Outline • Rationale • Our Approach: analysis platform for decision making: where what technology, prioritization, nearterm decisions guided by long-term, least-cost • Not engineering designs, but rapid planning • Examples: village, region and national scales • Combine International Experience + Local Expertise • Our Project Plan and Starting Work in Myanmar Rationale • Organize information in a systematic digital form • Useful for – Quickly budgeting – Responding to internal and donor needs – Transmission upgrades/generation – Communication bet township/state/national • Co-ordination between grid and off-grid projects Benefits of National Geospatial Planning • Accelerate national access at scale: – access and service standards can be applied consistently – important for remote, under-served populations • Improve allocation of investments: – ensure on-grid generation benefits from economies of scale – efficient targeting of off-grid systems for smaller communities – enable rapid design and bulk procurement in roll-out • Provide a coordinated investment framework: – help donors & government prioritize according to local development goals – reduce risk for private sector investors and entrepreneurs • NOTE: The difference between design vs. planning 4 Approach (1) • Acquire detailed geo-spatial, cost and technical information: – – – – – Demand points (settlements) Electricity Infrastructure (MV distribution lines) Demand level Growth rates (population, economic) Cost Factors (grid and off-grid, initial & recurring) (with off-grid) 5 Approach (2) • Project demand and cost for a defined time-horizon: – Apply growth rates, wealth / income mapping • Algorithmic computation of least-cost electricity system: – Grid extension – Mini- or Micro-grids (renewable, hybrid) – Household Systems (solar) • Generate phased Roll-Out plan for grid and distributed systems (with off-grid) 6 NetworkPlanner: An Algorithmic Planning System NetworkPlanner How it Works • A free, web-based tool (no license fees) Designed by our lab at the Earth Institute • Accepts essential local inputs of geospatial demand points, costs for electricity technologies, growth rates and other key parameters. • Algorithmically plans least-cost electricity systems in these steps: 1. Computes the lifetime costs (initial and recurring) for meeting projected electricity demand at every point for all electricity options 2. Chooses the lowest-cost electricity technology for each point 3. Creates detailed map outputs for the least-cost grid and all standalone systems. 4. Creates detailed tabular outputs describing investment needs, recurring costs, additional generation required, and many other planning outputs. Kenya – The First Major Use of Geospatial Planning Kenya / EI Electricity Planning Project: • Results highlighted the need to electrify western, under-served areas • Region specific generation req. and transmission upgrades • Ultimately led to major loan 1.3B from World Bank 9 Example: Electrification Planning at the Regional scale Flores, Indonesia: 6,300 settlements in Eastern Indonesia 10 Inputs that went into access planning • Location of each settlements • Population of each settlement • Where is the existing medium-voltage network? • Unit costs of utility infrastructure, off-grid • New customer demand Essential Local Contribution: Technical and Cost Parameters Initial Costs Grid Extension $30/m MV line (with poles) $600 Total HH connection Costs (incl: service drop/LV line) $200/ kVA Transformer (≥15 kVA) $1.00/W panels (5 peak sun hours / day) $267/kWh batteries, 5 kWh/kW Village Solar $100/HH for LV wire to home $1/W BOS (electronics) Off-Grid / HH Solar $2.15/W panels (5 peak sun hours/day) $267/kWh batteries 5kWh/kW battery capacity Recurring Costs $0.35 / kWh "bus bar" cost Annual O&M: 1% of line costs 3% of transformer costs $267/kWh battery replacement (every 3.3 years) Annual O&M: 1% of panel cost $267/kWh battery replacement (every 2.5 years) Annual O&M: 2% of panel cost 13 Example of Grid-Rollout over 20 Years (Flores Island, Eastern Indonesia) 15 16 17 18 19 A complete electricity plan specifies locations with grid access, mini-grids, and off-grid (solar home systems) Total Number of Households by Tech Type Model results provide quantitative outputs for locations served by all system types, with capacities and costs. 140,000 120,000 100,000 Household Solar 80,000 Village Solar Mini-Grid 60,000 Proposed Grid 40,000 Grid Connected 20,000 0 Proposed Grid: 166,000 HHs Village Solar Mini-Grid: 84,000 HHs Bins: Number of Households per Settlement 21 Pre-Existing Grid: Pre-existing household grid connections (2010 Census) 170,130 Investments (250,000 new HH with elec) Proposed New Grid Conn Total Initial cost for grid network (MV+LV) 165,000 $165 Million Village Solar Mini-Grids Conn Total Initial cost for all Mini-Grid systems 84,000 $94 Million Household Solar (model output) 3000 $5M Generation Costs for Grid Connected HH Coal + Solar + Geothermal + Wind 22 Grid: Metrics Pre-Existing Grid: Pre-Existing MV line length Units kilometers 1,505 Pre-existing connections (2010 Census) Households 170,130 meters 8.8 Existing MV Line Length per HH Scenario Results Proposed MV line length Units kilometers 480 kWh/yr 1,934 240 kWh 94 Proposed new grid connections Proposed MV line per new HH Proposed Total New Capacity Proposed New Capacity per HH Households meters MW kW 166,141 11.6 21.8 0.130 19,400 4.8 1.3 0.065 Scenario Results Grid Costs Total Initial cost for grid network (MV+LV) for MV grid network for LV, Svc Drop, HH wiring Total levelized cost for Grid power 480 kWh/yr per new Total HH conn. $163,479,151 $984 $53,638,088 $323 $109,841,063 $661 $0.63 / kWh 240 kWh/yr per new Total HH conn. $14,337,188 $736 $1,904,402 $98 $12,432,786 $638 $0.72 / kWh 23 Solar Mini-Grid: Metrics Scenario Results Proposed Total Capacity of Mini-Grids Proposed new mini-grid connections Proposed Capacity per HH 480 kWh/yr 240 kWh/yr 35 49 84,430 215,840 416 225 Unit MW Households W/HH Solar Mini-Grid: Costs Scenario Results Total Initial cost for system System discounted cost Total demand met by mini-grid (in kWh) Total levelized cost per kWH for Grid power 480 kWh/yr per new Total HH conn. $94,032,500 $1,114 $366,324,716 $4,339 502,893,767 5,956 $0.76 /kWh 240 kWh/yr per new Total HH conn. $149,769,300 $694 $509,826,782 $2,362 642,808,188 2,978 $0.83 /kWh 10% of the kWh from diesel backup for solar mini-grids brings reliability from 80% to 90% 24 Solar Home Systems: Metrics and Costs Scenario Results Proposed Total watts of SHS Proposed new SHS connections Proposed Size for each SHS 480 kWh/yr 946 2,649 356 240 kWh/yr 3,197 kW 17,907 Households 179 W/HH kW Households W/HH Solar Home Systems Solar: Costs Scenario Results Total Initial cost for system System discounted cost Total demand met by Grid (in kWh) Total levelized cost for SHS power 480 kWh/yr 240 kWh/yr per new HH Total conn. $5,321,274 $2,009 $18,141,961 $6,849 15,778,344 5,956 $1.16 /kWh per new HH Total conn. $17,992,857 $1,005 $61,343,525 $3,426 642,808,188 35,897 $1.16 /kWh 25 Background Population Modeling GIS Platform Model Results Solar MicroGrids Talking Points Cost per Household (US$) Marginal costs of grid connections can increase with roll-out $2,000 High $1,500 Low Mini-grid $1,000 $500 $0 +20,000 +40,000 +40,000 +40,000 +30,000 Number of New Households Connected 26 Mini-Grid Rollout: An example prioritizing higher demand villages Planning at Township Level Mini-grid Solar home System Grid? Solar Mini Grid Algorithm Results Technology Options Grid Rollout: An example prioritizing most cost-effective branches Investment in MV line per connection (meters shown) Phase 1 < 20 Phase 2 20 – 25 Phase 3 > 25 Incremental Infrastructure • one could start local and where/when demand grows and grid comes closer connect to the grid • Keeps initial investments small and modular • Does not strain utility immediately • Allows demand grows and entrepreneurship to emerge organically Our Project Plan • The Earth Institute’s approach to Electrification Planning in Myanmar will include three phases with an in-country workshop roughly marking each phase, as outlined below. Our Project Plan 1. Data Gathering – Milestone 1: Inception Workshop – Deliverable 1: Inception Report – Milestone 2: Formation of a GIS dataset with acceptable resolution of population and MV network representation – Deliverable 2: Interim Report Our Project Plan 2. Demand Analysis & Quantify Supply Needed – Milestone 3: Workshop on Initial Results – Deliverable 3: Draft Final Geospatial Rollout Plan 3. Final Scaled-Analysis and Knowledge Transfer – Milestone 4: Final Results Workshop – Milestone 5: GOM feedback on Draft Report – Deliverable 4: Final Geospatial Rollout Plan & accompanying datasets developed Starting Work For Myanmar: Data Sets Needed for Electricity Modeling • Settlement Data from Village or Village Tracts – Locations – Populations • Existing Grid Distribution Data – map or digital file for medium-voltage lines • Other drivers – Supply options, current/future – Demand/hh, population and demand growth, – unit costs of options Village locations within Village Tracts Village Tract data may be supplemented in some cases Electrification Planning benefits from village level data. Settlement Data • From MOLFRD, DRD • Village location and population, 2001 • In absence of more recent data, an excellent starting point • Project to future • Can we updated as new figures become available EXAMPLE: State: Magway Township: Pakoku Existing distribution grid • Transmission Lines – Available through MEPE, up to 66 kV • Medium Voltage lines, ESE, YESB – 33 kV and 11 kV lines – Currently not available in digital geo-spatial form – ESE is compiling paper/scan images from all states/regions, estimated avai: 1 month • Smaller off-grid systems – Expect to report later Other drivers • Large generation Sources – Hydropower, HGPE (generation), DHP (planning) • Cost of Grid Generation in the future – Some uncertainty due to variable international fuel supply, scale of demand growth – JICA study – Hydro potentials, thru MOPE • Hydro <5MW, from ESE • Unit costs, demand Original: jpeg with hand-drawn MV lines (red) GIS product: shapefile with digitized MV lines (blue) Training and Capacity Building : Example: Data collection with smartphones Training and detailed work with local electricity technicians and managers resulted in completion of a detailed local medium-voltage distribution grid map for a region in Eastern Indonesia Training & mapping of MV grid lines (IDN) Training & mapping of MV grid lines (IDN) West Timor (IDN) MV grid initial estimate West Timor (IDN), MV grid lines following EI training & mapping 44 Approach to data • Settlement Data valuable for electricity, gas, roads, water, and other services • Tools to gather and “maintain” data. • How to rapidly capture planning grade data for existing lines • Work closely with Government/Utility to embed tools/processes in their systems Working with Ministries, Utilities, Enterprises • We would like to begin here in Nay Pyi Taw, possibly following up in other regions or offices. We ask your permission and support • Our plan and approach is to work side-by-side with local experts and practitioners to ensure the relevance, completeness and accuracy of all data and outputs. • Workshop tomorrow