PowerPoint-Präsentation

advertisement

“Overview of the state-of-the-art, typical components and applications and the roadmap of solar heat in Germany up to 2030“

Jan Michael Knaack, Senior Project Manager

German Solar Industry Association

Warsaw, 19. March 2013

German Solar Industry Association

TASK

VISION

ACTIVITIES

EXPERIENCE

MEMBERS

HEADQUARTERS

To represent the German solar industry in the solar thermal and photovoltaic sector

A global sustainable energy supply provided by solar

(renewable) energy

Lobbying, political advice, public relations, market observation, standardization

Active in the solar energy sector since more than 25 years

More than 850 solar producers, suppliers, wholesalers, installers and other companies active in the solar business

Berlin

A Popular Fallacy

Who would have thought this was the case?

Of 100 people asked, the figures below show how many people thought that most energy was used in these areas...

Actual consumption in %

Don‘t know

Car

Warm water

Electricity

Heating

Warm water

Electricity

Car

Solar thermal technology

Design of Solar Collectors

Unglazed collectors

Flat-plate collectors

Vacuum tube collectors

Synthetic absorbers Standard flat plate collector

Standard tubes

Stainless steel absorbers Vacuum flat plate collector

(with spacer)

Solar air collectors

CPC tubes

Sidney tube (heatpipe)

Various Collector Types

Flat plate collector

Vacuum tube collector

Source of picture : Nau

Solar air collectors

Source of picture : Grammer

Source of picture: Paradigma

Swimming pool absorber

Source of picture : SUNSET

Technology: production, components, system design

Sputtered selective absorber

<<

Ultrasonic or laser welding

>>

© Wagner & Co

<<

Collector Design

Heat meter, flow meter, insulated tubes…

>> >>

© Resol

© Aeroline tube systems

Storage Types for Single-Family Houses (EFH)

Service water storage

150 - 1000 litres

Buffer storage

500 - 1500 litres

Stratified storage

500 - 3000 litres

application

Possible Installations for Collectors

Roof mounting

Roof integration/solar roof

Elevation

Facade

Domestic Hot Water Production

Market share in Germany: 50%

Typical data for Germany

(4-person household)

Forced circulation

5-

6m² collector area

300-400 l. solar storage tank

Flat-plate or vacuum

End consumer costs tube collector

~

€4,000 – 5,000

Solar station with controls and circulation pump

Water storage tank

Cold water inlet

Condensing boiler oli, gas new: wood pellets rarely: elec. power

Image: Schüco

Image: Paradigma

Solar Thermal Combined System

Market share in Germany: 50%

Combined solar thermal system for DHW and auxiliary room heating

8-

15 m² collector area

500-1,000 litres combined storage

Flat-plate or vacuum tube collector

Solar station with controls and circulatio n pump

Forced circulation system

End consumer costs ~

€10,000 – €15,000

Dom. hot water storage

Heating circuits

Boiler

Image: Roto Frank

Combi storage

Image: Paradigma

Buffer storage

Cold water inlet

Sonnenhaus Lorenz Kumhausen

Construction in 2002

– Area 170 m² - Construction costs 350,000

€ incl. Cellar + garage

solar coverage

DHW+ Heating

77 %

Heat need

:

Solart thermal:

33 kWh/m²a

68 m² (45

°

)

Primary energy need:

Solar storage tank:

14 kWh/m²a

11 m³

Energy autonomy at home

100 % coverage of heat and power with intelligent renewable energies

Heated area

: 162 m² , heating need 12,000 kWh/a, primary energy need 1500 kWh / a = 9 kWh

/m²a, electricity need 2000 kWh / a www.das-energieautrake-haus.de

Attractive components for large systems:

Facade integrated collectors

© Schüco © Schüco

Solar Thermal Market 2012

2.50 0

2.0 0 0

Market Data Solar Thermal in Germany 2012*

Newly installed collect or area

Tot al inst alled collect or ar ea

Growt h 2011/ 2012

No. of t otal systems installed

1,17 Mio sqm

16,5 Mio sqm

-9,3%

1.8 Mio

* preliminary

(Source: BDH, BSW-Solar)

01/ 2013

1.50 0

Evacuat ed t ube

Flat e Plat e

1.0 0 0

50 0

0

1992 1994 1996 1998 20 0 0 20 0 2 20 0 4 20 0 6 20 0 8 20 10 20 12

Development of support for ST in Germany

Beginning of the

90‘s: some of the German states provide grants for solar thermal systems

Problems:

Limited budgets, different criteria for allocation of grants

1995: Market intentive programme

commences and covers 30-40 % of investment cost

Limits:

Budgets:ca.

30 Mio

€ for 4 years

1999:

Budget increased to 60

Mio

€ per annum

2001:

Great demand, reduction of grants to cover only 10-15 % of invenstment cost

2002:

Market crashes down

40%

2006

: Boom in demand, due to high oil and gas prices.

Budget ca.120

Mio

€/a,.

Grants further reduced

2007:

Market crash

Since mid

2007:

Increased support for systems

2009: building obligations introduced

and budget increase

2010:

support is stopped, market crashes

2011 /2012:

increase of support per m²

Current support policies in Germany

Existing buildings (Market Incentive Programme MAP)

Only support of combined DHW + heating systems with 90 € / m² minimum of 1500 € / solar key mark approved collectors

For extenisions of existing ST systems 45 € / m²

DHW systems are only supported in big building > 3 or more appartments & commercial buildings > 300 m² heated space

Boni for change of heating systems, very efficient pumps, very well insulated houses, connection to district heating systems

Support for process heat + solar cooling systems of SME of up to 50 % of investment costs

New Buildings: Renewable Heat Obligation (EEWärmeG)

New buildings must comply with very well insulation or use a renewable heat source (e.G. solar thermal, heat pump, pellets, etc.) to cover parts of the energy use

Industry roadmap for solar heat

2030

 http://www.solarwirtschaft.de/en/start/english-news.html

Implementation of FE scenario is the central focus of the solar heat roadmap 2012

“Business as usual“ scenario

BAU

Increase in fossil fuel prices by

3-5 % p.a.

Support as before

“Forced expansion“ scenario

FE

Comprehensive implementation of the actions according to the roadmap

Increase in fossil fuel prices by

8% p.a.

Increased support during the period 2014 – 2023

In conclusion: selfsustaining growth effect

“Breakthrough“ scenario

DB

Comprehensive implementation of the actions according tothe roadmap

Significant change in general conditions:

o

Increase in global ecological problems o

Increase in fossil fuel prices by

11 % p.a.

o

Equal ranking of support for solar heat

The Six Strategic Focal Topics

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

Full focus on the expansion of the established segments in the area segment single-family and two-family houses

Development of further market segments by acquiring additional competence (multi family houses, solar homes, etc.)

Committed entry to the solar heat future market of industrial process heat up to 100°C (better understanding of market)

Consolidation of competitive capability through cost-efficient system solutions and active development of the structural change (simple systems / specialisation)

Prioritisation of research for development of cost-efficient solutions in the established segments and industrial process heat

Active communicative organisation of general conditions required for the increase in solar heat (end consumer communication)

The 11 market segments have different strategic meanings

Segment

5

6

3

4

1

2

7

8

9

Modernisation of heating systems single-family house

SW expansion single-family house

New construction of single-family houses

Modernisation of existing systems in single-family houses

Solar homes

Modernisation of heating systems and extension of multi-family residences

New construction of multi-family residences

Non-residential building

Local and district heating

10

11

Industrial process heat up to 100 ° C

Industrial cooling and air conditioning

2015







-

Strategic significance (FE)

2020









2030















-

-

-







Strategic significance in line with export and breakthrough scenario

The full impact of the technology leap between 2015 and

2020 will only be felt during the

20‘s

10000 €

Qualification trade

9000 €

Technology leap

Example of a cost and revenue structure of a combination system

(11 m2 flat plate collector) without deduction of storage price of a gas-fired condensing boiler; net final price

8000 €

7000 €

Simpler, faster assembly

HW - MO - SK + EBITDA

HW - SP+HW - SK + EBITDA

6000 €

5000 €

4000 €

3000 €

2000 €

TCM-

Storage

HW - KO - SK + EBITDA

FGH - SP+HW - SK + EBITDA

FGH - KO - SK + EBITDA

HST - SP+HW - SK + EBITDA

HST - SP+HW - HK

HST - KO - SK + EBITDA

HST - KO - HK

1000 €

0 € substructure Synthetic collector, or similar

2000 2011 2015 2020 2030

Source: ITW, Technomar

HST = Manufacturer, FGH = Specialised wholesale trade, HW = Trade, KO = Collector, SP+HW = Storage and other HW, MO = Assembly costs, HK = Manufacturing costs, SK + EBITDA = Other costs and operative reult (calculation based on full costs, not based on the difference investment of storage)

Cost reduction up to 2020: -15%

Cost reduction up to 2030: -43%

The 12 Core Objectives of the Roadmap

Scenario

New installation of collector surface p.a. [million m

2

]

Installed collective surface [accumulated, million m

2

]

Installed solar thermal performance [accumulated, million m²]

Solar thermal energy generation p.a. [TWh]

CO2 savings p.a. [million tons]

Share of solar heat in the heat requirements of German households [%]

Share of solar heat in the heat requirements (up ot 100°C] of German industry [%]

Installed systems for industrial process heat 1 [accumulated]

Reduction in system price in housing per kWh [%]

Domestic sales of the industry sector [billion €]

German value added rate [%]

Export [billion €]

2010

1.15

14

9.8

5

>1

<1%

0%

< 100

1.0

75

0.5

Forced expansion

2020

3.6

39

27

14

3.2

2.7%

0.4%

2030

8.1

99

69

36

8.0

7.7%

10.2%

1,500

14

2.4

75

1.1

28,300

43

3.0

75

1.4

Conclusions

German solar thermal companies can look back on a long experience in solar thermal technology development and applications

So far the main market is the residential sector, but many promising market segments are to become economically interesting.

Precondition is further political willingness to support the technology as well as improvements in the technology, esp. to enable quicker / easier installation.

In the Solar Thermal Roadmap 2030 (2012), the industry has formulated realistic potentials and has started to work on realizing those goals in

Germany.

Thank you very much for your attention!

Image: Grammer Solar und Bau

Download