Migration, Climate Change and
the Environment
&
Angela Santucci
Project Officer
International Organization for Migration (IOM)
Cairo, 20 – 21 September 2010
Potential Effects of Climate Change
“The gravest effects of climate change may be those
on human migration.”
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 1990
• Where do we stand now?
– 20 million displaced by climate related natural disasters in 2008
• What about the future?
– Most widely cited figure: 200 million environmental migrants by
2050
Links Between Environment and Migration
• Both natural disasters and environmental
degradation can induce migration
• Climate change is likely to exacerbate
these events and processes
• Migration can affect the environment in
places of destination & origin and along
transit routes
• Economic, social and developmental
factors complicate the interactions
between migration and the environment
• Environmental migration is a
multi-causal phenomenon
Migration as Adaptation
• Migration can strengthen livelihoods
through income diversification via
remittances, the transfer of knowledge and
skills and/or relocation
•  Migration is one possible adaptation
strategy
Case Study: Egypt
• Expected climate change impacts:
– Sea-level rise
– Water scarcity
– Desertification
• Expected impacts on human mobility:
– International mobility
– Internal mobility (rural to urban)
North Coast and Nile Delta
• 60% of Egypt’s agriculture
• Four million people
• Vulnerable to sea rise and salination
• Sediment starvation
• Internal and international migration
Egypt: Land at Risk from Sea-level Rise
Egypt: Migration by Governorate
International Migration Aspirations among Egyptian Youth 15-29, by Governorate
Egypt: Migration by Governorate
Internal Migration Experience among Egyptian Youth 18-29, by Destination Governorate
Pilot Project: Assessment and Strategy Development to
Respond to Sea-Level Rise and Human Mobility
•
To better understand actual and potential impacts and consequences of
sea-level rise on human mobility
– Creation of a technical working group of key stakeholders and inception
workshop
– Rapid assessments conducted
•
To design and test practical pilot initiatives to help respond to sea-level rise
induced mobility
– Pilot initiatives developed and implemented
– Assessment of pilot initiatives to evaluate success
•
To enhance awareness among key stakeholders of the inter-linkages
between sea-level rise and human mobility
– Workshop for key stakeholders to disseminate findings and develop
recommendations and follow up actions
– Final report based on assessment findings and implemented activities, including
lessons learned and recommendations
Donor: IOM’s 1035 Funding Facility
The Way Forwards: IOM’s Vision
• First - minimize forced migration and ensure protection and
assistance where displacement is inevitable;
• Second - facilitate the role of migration as an adaptation strategy to
climate change and seek to strengthen the developmental benefits
of such migration for areas of origin;
• Third - plan for relocation in areas that are expected to become
uninhabitable to avoid a crisis situation and ensure sustainability;
• Fourth - bolster humanitarian action with adequate resources to
meet the growing challenge of climate change;
• Fifth - mainstream environmental and climate change
considerations into migration management policies and practice,
and vice versa.
Thank you