If we do not design ways to live within the means of one planet, sustainability will remain elusive. R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Source: http://www.footprintnetwork.org/ Energy and the Environment Part II CES August 2010 Prof. R. Shanthini Dept of Chemical & Process Engineering Faculty of Engineering University of Peradeniya R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Learning Objectives √• Describe the major energy technologies • Assess the impact of the use of energy from the environmental (ecological) point of view • Demonstrate a comprehensive understanding of - energy sufficiency (conservation) - energy efficiency - energy security and - sustainability issues R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Carbon dioxide emissions 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 Global CO2 emissions from Total emissions the burning of fossil fuels & the manufacture of cement (in 109 kg CO2) 10000 5000 0 1750 R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 1800 1850 1900 Year 1950 2000 Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/glo.html Global Carbon Cycle Fossilfuel burning 5.3 Land use 0.6 – 2.6 Numbers are billions of tons of carbon Photosynthesis 100-120 Plant respiration 40 - 50 Decay of residues 50 - 60 Sea-surface gas exchange 100 - 115 Net ocean uptake 1.6 – 2.4 R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Geological reservoir Atmospheric Carbon dioxide Concentrations 400 CO2 concentration in the atmosphere (in ppmv) 375 350 385.3 ppmv in 2008 325 300 275 ppmv in preindustrial time 275 1750 R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) including Carbon dioxide GHGs are gases in an atmosphere that absorb and emit radiation within the thermal infrared range. This process is the fundamental cause of the greenhouse effect. R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 The Greenhouse effect A SUN R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 T M O S P H E R E The main GHGs in the Earth's atmosphere are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone. Without GHGs, Earth's surface would be on average about 33°C colder than at present. R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Rise in the concentration of four GHGs R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Global Warming Potential (GWP) of different GHGs R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Global Warming The burning of fossil fuels, land use change and other industrial activities since the Industrial revolution have increased the GHGs in the atmosphere to such a level that the earth’s surface is heating up to temperatures that are very destructive to life on earth. R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Global Warming R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hansen/hansen.html Global Warming The global temperature has risen by 0.74 ± 0.18°C over the last century (from 1906 to 2005). Source: Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Compare the above with the fact that the global temperature has not o varied by more than 1 or 2 C during the past 100 centuries. Global warming has begun….. R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Consequences………… R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Climate change Climate change World’s first environmental refugees from Carteret Islands, Papua New Guinea. • Persistent flooding is causing the submergence of the Carteret Islands. • Saltwater intrusion is contaminating the islands freshwater supply and preventing the growth of crops. • The islands were declared uninhabitable by the government in 2005 and expected to be completely submerged by 2015. R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Source: http://earthtrends.wri.org/ Climate change • death of coral reefs • fewer cubs for polar bears • spread of dengue and other diseases • heavy rains & severe draughts • fires, floods, storms, & hurricanes • changed rainfall patterns • warming and aridity • loss of biodiversity and more…………….. R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 At the rate of 1.5 ppmv of CO2 increase per year, 400 ppmv CO2 will be reached in 2018, and it is probable that the global o temperature would go up by 2 C (compare it with the 0.01oC per decade estimate by WWF). -Accelerated Climate Change -Mass extinctions -Ecosystems breakdowns -Large scale discontinuities R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Some say, forget about the 2oC. The limit is not 400 ppmv CO2. It is 550 ppmv CO2 (which is nearly twice the pre-industrial value). R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Sustainable Limit Calculations R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production: 1. Virgin material supply limit: To stabilize the atmospheric CO2 concentration below approximately 550 ppmv by the year 2100, global anthropogenic emissions must be limited to about 7 to 8 x 1012 kg (= 7 to 8 giga tonnes) of C per year (IPCC, 1996). R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9 Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production: 2. Allocation of virgin material: Each of the average 7.5 billion people on the planet over the next 50 years is allocated an equal share of carbon emissions. This translates to roughly 1000 kg (1 tonne) of C equivalents per person per year. R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9 Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production: 3. Regional “re-captureable” resource base: Recycling of carbon in the form of permanent or semi-permanent sequestration may eventually possible through controversial techniques, not at the moment. R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9 Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production: 4. Current consumption rate vs. sustainable limiting rate: The U.S. on average produced 5500 kg (5.5 tonnes) of C equivalents per person (including emissions from land use change) in 2000, which is well beyond the global sustainable rate of 1000 kg (1 tonne) of C equivalents per person per year. R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9 (tonnes of C equivalent) CO2 Emissions per capita 2004 HDI > 0.8 10 9 8 7 6 USA 5 4 Sri Lanka 3 2 1 0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 HDI (defined on next page)2005 R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Sources: http://hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_report.cfm UNDP defined Human Development Index (HDI) HDI = LI 3 + 2 EI (Education Index) = 3 R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 + GDPI 3 Life Expectancy - 25 85 - 25 LI (Life Index) = GDPI (GDP Index) = EI 3 Adult Literacy 2 School Enrollment + 100 3 100 ln(GDP per capita) - ln(100) ln(40000) - ln(100) (tonnes of C equivalent) CO2 Emissions per capita 2004 HDI > 0.8 10 Unsustainable amount of per capita CO2 emissions are required to reach super high HDI (> 0.9) 9 8 7 6 USA 5 4 Sri Lanka Sustainable limit 3 2 1 0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 HDI 2005 R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Sources: http://hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_report.cfm Discussion Point 3: How to limit the CO2 emissions below the sustainable limit? R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Take 10 mins. Peak Oil: Oil supply peak has been reached in many oil fields, Fossil Fuel Type Reserves–to-production (R/P) ratio gives the number of years the remaining reserves (most optimistic estimates) would last if production were to continue at the 2007 level Oil 41.6 years Natural Gas 60.3 years Coal 133 years R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2008 Peak Oil: Oil supply peak has been reached in many oil fields, Production from Mexico's largest oilfield, Cantarell, fell from 1.99 million b/d in Jan 2006 to 1.44 million b/d in Dec 2006. R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Source: http://www.hubbertpeak.com/mx/ Well #34 has run dry and is now pumping fossils R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Source: www.cartoonstock.com/directory/f/fossil_fuel.asp “Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.“ - “Our Common Future”, 1987 Dr. Gro Harlem Brundtland Former Prime Minister, Norway Former Chair/ World Commission on Environment and Development Responsible for the broad political concept of Sustainable Development R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Discussion Point 4: Could we achieve a world that consumes sustainable energy without re-organizing the entire energy system of the present? Sustainable Energy: is energy which is replenishable within a human lifetime and causes no long-term damages to the environment. Renewable Energy: are flows of energy that are regenerative or virtually inexhaustible R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Take 10 mins. Option 1: Increase the use of carbon sinks (such as forests where 70% of all photosynthesis occurs). But, we replace our forests with cities, highways & golf courses. Stop destroying forests, and grow more trees. R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 19 Jan 2010 The forest cover is already too small to help reducing global warming. How long does it take to grow a tree like this? R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Option 2: Change to non-CO2 emitting energy sources What are they? Nuclear Hydro Renewables (Geothermal, Solar, Wave, Tidal, Wind, Biomass and Biogas) Muscle Power R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Fossil fuels 50% Hydroelectric Power 40% Nuclear Electric Power 30% Electric Power from Renewables 20% 10% 0% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls Hydroelectric power What are the problems with hydroelectric power? barriers in the natural flow of a river prevents fish from migration, alters ecosystems, and threatens the livelihoods of local communities the world's 52,000 largest dams release 104 million metric tons of methane (a greenhouse gas) annually hydropower is not renewable, because reservoirs fill up with sediment and cost billions to dredge failure of a dam will have catastrophic consequences loss of land as well as flooding of areas such as natural habitats and existing settlements The future generations must pay for destroying dams R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Is it a sustainable form of energy? Hydroelectric power The Elwha Dam, a 33 m high dam on the Olympic Peninsula in Washington state, is one of two huge dams built in the early 1900s and set to be removed in 2012. Removal of dam will restore the fish habitats, will create an additional 715 acres of terrestrial vegetation, and improve elk habitats. R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 estimated cost $308 million ± 15% Solar Energy – Photovoltaic Cells Inorganic Solar Cells 2nd Generation Thin-film Bulk 3rd Generation Materials Germanium Silicon CIS CIGS Silicon Amorphous Silicon Mono-crystalline CdTe Poly-crystalline Ribbon R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 GaAs Light absorbing dyes Nonocrystalline Silicon Solar Energy – Photovoltaic Cells Inorganic Solar Cells 2nd Generation Thin-film Bulk Processing silica (SiO2) to produce silicon is a very high rd Generation 3 Silicon energy process, and it takes over two years for a Materialsas much energy as was conventional solar cell to generate Germanium used Silicon to make the silicon CISit contains. Amorphous Silicon CIGS (charcoal) and Silicon is produced by reacting carbon silica Mono-crystalline at a temperature around 1700 deg C. CdTe Poly-crystalline And, 1.5 tonnes of CO2 is emittedGaAs for each tonne Nonocrystalline of silicon (about 98% pure) produced. Silicon Ribbon Light R. Shanthini absorbing dyes 15 Aug 2010 Direct CO2 emissions from burning (in grams CO2 equivalent / kWh) 1400 Upper range Lower range 1200 1000 1017 790 800 575 600 362 400 200 0 R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 IAEA2000 Coal Gas Hydro Solar PV Wind Nuclear Indirect CO2 emissions from life cycle (in grams CO2 equivalent / kWh) 1400 1306 Upper range Lower range 1200 966 1000 800 688 600 439 400 280 236 200 4 0 R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 IAEA2000 Coal Gas Hydro 100 Solar PV 48 10 21 9 Wind Nuclear Comparing Sri Lanka with USA Sri Lanka Human Development Index (HDI) 2005 0.743 Ecological Footprint (EF, defined on next 1 gha page) 2005 per capita CO2 emissions per 0.16 capita in 2004 tonnes of C Electricity consumption 420 per capita in 2004 kW-hr GDP per capita 3,896 R. Shanthini in 2006 PPP US $ 15 Aug 2010 USA 0.951 9.4 gha 5.62 tonnes of C 14,240 kW-hr 43,968 PPP US$ Ecological Footprint (EF) • EF measures (in global hectares) how much land and water area a human population requires to produce the resource it consumes and to absorb its wastes, using prevailing technology. • EF does not include an economic indicator. A global hectare (gha) is a common unit that encompasses the average productivity of all the biologically productive land and sea area in the world in a given year. Biologically productive areas include cropland, forest and fishing grounds, and do not include deserts, glaciers and the open ocean. R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Source: http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/ frequently_asked_questions/#method1 Biocapacity • Biocapacity is shorthand for biological capacity, which is the ability of an ecosystem to produce useful biological materials and to absorb wastes generated by humans. Sustainable global EF per capita = Total Biocapacity per capita = 13.4/6.8 ≈ 2 gha ( ≈ 5 acres) R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Source: http://www.footprintnetwork.org For Sri Lanka Built-up Land Carbon Footprint Fishing Ground Footprint Biocapacity (gha per capita) Forest Footprint EF2005 (gha per capita) Grazing Footprint Cropland Footprint Total 0 R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Source: http://www.footprintnetwork.org For USA Built-up Land Carbon Footprint Fishing Ground Footprint Biocapacity (gha per capita) Forest Footprint EF2005 (gha per capita) Grazing Footprint Cropland Footprint Total 0 R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 2 4 6 8 10 Source: http://www.footprintnetwork.org EF is 1.3 in 2005. That is to say we need 1.3 planets to provide the resources we use and absorb our waste. This means, in 2005, it took the Earth one year and four months to regenerate what we use in a year. R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Source: http://www.footprintnetwork.org EF will be 2 by the mid 2030 if current population and consumption trends continue according to moderate UN scenarios. It means by the mid 2030s we will need the equivalent of 2 Earths to support us. R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Source: http://www.footprintnetwork.org Option 3: Reduce Population More people More pollution R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Electricity use in 2006 If you are in USA, you will be lighting 18.5 bulbs, each with 200 W power R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 If you are in China, you will be lighting 3 bulbs, each with 200 W power 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income High income CO2 (metric tons per capita) R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Population GDP per capita, PPP (const 2005 International $) in 2005 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income High income CO2 (metric tons per capita) R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Population GDP per capita, PPP (const 2005 International $) in 2005 CO2 emissions per capita has stronger links with GDP per capita than with population. R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 “We cannot solve our problems with the same ways of thinking that produced them.” Albert Einstein End of Part II (short Break) R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010