Migration and
adaptive capacity
building
Dr. Robert McLeman
Associate Professor
Department of Geography
UNFCCC-speak
Mitigation:
• Actions taken to
reduce GHG
emissions
• Kyoto Protocol
provides key
mechanism until 2012
Adaptation:
• Reducing vulnerability
to impacts of
anthropogenic climate
change
• Also helping
economies adapt to
implementation of
UNFCCC/protocols
• A number of
initiatives, accords
have emerged
Adaptation and least developed
countries (LDCs)
• UNFCCC signatories have established:
• LDC Fund for adaptation (administered by
the Global Environment Facility (GEF))
• LDC Fund = approx $180M
UN LDCs
Adaptation and LDCs
• To access the LDC Fund, countries create
NAPA (National Adaptation Programmes
of Action)
• NAPA are to focus on urgent, immediate
needs
• Action-oriented
• Interest in having grassroots participation
• There is an Expert group to assist LDCs in
preparing NAPA
LDCs and NAPA
• At present >40 NAPA at various stages of
process
• Typical size of LDC grant = $1.5 - 4M
NAPA tend to focus on 1 of 3 areas:
• Agriculture/food security
• Water quantity/quality
• Coastal risks
Migration and NAPA
• Migration tends not to be explicit target of
NAPA
• Preparing for distress migration is an
important component of Maldives ‘safe
island’ NAPA
• To what extent might migration affect
success of other NAPA? Or be an
outcome of NAPA?
Migration as adaptation
• Migration is one of a range of potential
adaptive responses to climatic stress
• Is used in many parts of world (esp. LDCs)
• Is typically initiated at the household level
• Is not available to everyone
• Is not always used by all who might do so
• In worst cases, may be the only adaptation
McLeman, R. A., & Smit, B. (2006). Migration as an Adaptation to
Climate Change. Climatic Change, 76(1-2), 31-53.
Environmental migrants
More likely to migrate:
Less likely to migrate:
• Young, healthy,
skilled, educated
• Middle class, working
class, rural poor
• Family ties elsewhere
• Wealthier classes,
landowners, owners
of fixed assets
• Urban poor
• Elderly, infirm, broken
families
Adaptation to climatic stress via
migration
• Not a simple stimulus/response outcome
• Adaptive migration behaviour/patterns are
influenced by social, economic, & cultural
processes
• Actions taken to reduce vulnerability may
have feedback effects on migration
behaviour
• Migration has feedback effect on adaptive
capacity of source & destination areas
Illustrative case study
• Country X is a West African LDC with
large dryland areas
• Agriculture = largest sector of economy,
workforce
• Current climatic risks: drought, soil
erosion, desertification, flooding by
extreme rain events; exacerbated in some
regions by deforestation
• Climate change likely to exacerbate risks
Country X demographics
•
•
•
•
Median age = 17
Population growth rate = 3.3%
80% live in rural areas
High rates of ongoing migration from dry to
humid regions
• High rates of migration to 2nd-tier cities
• Periodic distress migration events (esp.
drought)
Rural-urban migration
• For decades, country X has sought to moderate
rural-urban migration by improving services/
amenities in rural areas
• Empirical results suggest improved rural
infrastructure (roads, schools, clinics, electricity,
piped water) increases rural-to-urban migration
• Strong social infrastructure (e.g. presence of
markets, entertainment) is associated with lower
rates of rural out-migration
Country X NAPA
• Priority is to increase food security
• Actions envisage building food reserves;
developing new plans for land and crisis
management; increasing agricultural
productivity; increasing irrigation; creating
pastoral reserves
Country X NAPA & migration
• If successful NAPA could reduce food
emergencies, make government better
prepared for them
• Emphasis on management, infrastructure
& productivity does not address underlying
demographic & migration challenges
• NAPA thin on addressing vulnerability of
fast-growing urban population & changing
face of food security
Implications
• Short-term adaptation needs vary among
LDCs
• NAPA are intended to be urgent responses
to obvious points of vulnerability. In
crafting them ask:
• To what extent will NAPA activities affect
adaptive migration?
• Where demographics/migration are
underlying contributors to vulnerability, to
what extent will NAPA address them?
Thanks! Merci!
Robert McLeman
Associate Professor
Department of Geography
University of Ottawa
e-mail: rmcleman@uottawa.ca
web: http://www.geography.uottawa.ca/prof/rmcleman.htm
blog: http://www.thisgeographicallife.blogspot.com
Available publications
McLeman, R., & Hunter, L. M. (In Press). Migration in the Context of Vulnerability
and Adaptation to Climate Change: Insights from Analogues. Wiley
Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change.
McLeman, R. (2010). Impacts of population change on vulnerability and the
capacity to adapt to climate change and variability: a typology based on lessons
from a hard country. Population and Environment. (Springer OnlineFirst)
McLeman, R. (2008). Climate change migration, refugee protection and adaptive
capacity-building. McGill International Journal of Sustainable Development Law
and Policy, 4(1), 1-18.
McLeman, R., & Smit, B. (2006). Migration as an Adaptation to Climate Change.
Climatic Change, 76(1-2), 31-53.
McLeman, R., & Smit, B. (2006). Changement climatique, migrations et sécurité.
Les Cahiers de la sécurité, 63(4), 95-120.