Presentation by John Bosco
Baguri Sumani
UDS
Wa Campus
During the a GGA/GGTA Conference
at KNUST from 1-4th August, 2012
Presentation Outline
Introduction
Brief Literature Review
Problem statement
Study objectives
Study area and methodology
Results
Conclusion and Recommendations
References
Introduction
Successive gov’ts have initiated policies,
programs, plans and initiatives to manage
out-migration since independence
Literature surveyed revealed that outmigration has been increasing in the Upper
West Region
Factors accounting for migration is a subject of
debate (Suhrke, 1993, Akokpari, 1998; PerchNielson, 2004; Mcleman and Smit, 2006)
Brief Literature survey
• Migration as a developmental challenge (Davidson et al
(2003 and Mcleman and Smit, 2006)
• No agreement on causes of migration (suhrke, 1993 ;
Akokpari, 1998 and Perch-Nielson, 2004)
• Neo-classical views dominate (Massey, 1993)
• Environmental degradation is often mentioned as
physical factors (Suhrke, 1993; Bilsboro, 1991)
• Climate is hardly mentioned or only mentioned
tangentially (Perch-Nielsen, 2004)
• Hence the design of this
Problem statement
 Nadowli District has been experiencing outmigration since its creations
 Reasons for migration:
 Economic
 Socio- cultural
 Population pressure
 Conflicts/wars
 Environmental conditions hardly mentioned
 Environment-migration relations at the general
level without disaggregating the various factors
• However, climatic variables are indispensable
resources for agric productivity and
production
Climate variability/change has been blame
elsewhere for migration (Adelekan and
Afolayan, 1999; Magadza,2000; MezeHausken, 2000 and Mcleman and Smit,2006)
• Hence, this study was designed to determine
the influence of climate variability on human
migration
Study objectives
• Main objective
i. To find out the influence of climate
variability on human migration in Nadowli
District
• Specific objectives:
i. Climatic (key variables) trends over the years
ii. Causes of migration
iii The relationships between climatic trends and
migration
iv The relationship between migration and sex
v The relationship between migration and age,
and finally
vi The socio-economic effects of out-migration
on the source region
Study Approach and Methodology
• The study area is Nadowli District
• Data sources
i. Primary
ii. Secondary
• Sampling techniques
 Non-Probability
i. Purposive ( GMA and Returned migrants)
• Probability sampling
i. Cluster sampling (3 clusters)
ii. Western- Sankana & Charikpong; CentralDuong & Daffiamah and Eastern- Naro & Fian
iii. Systematic sampling (25hh in each c’ty)- sample
size of 150
• Data collection instruments:
i. Questionnaire administration
ii. Face –to- interviews
iii. FGD
Conceptual Framework
• Climate and migration variables are difficult
to bring under 1 framework (Perch-Nielson
,2004 and Mcleman and Smit, 2006)
• This study modified Mcleman and Smit (2006)
model with ideas from Meze-Hausken (2000)
and Perch-Nielson (2004)
• According to Mcleman and Smit,
V=f(Eslit +ACslit)
Conceptual framework in response to climate
variability
Causes of migration
Economic
Socio-cultural
Modified C’ties:
.Previous members
Return migrants
Environmental
Population
Climate variability
Conflict/wars
Climatic conditions
Agric performance
No, Out-migration
Perceived
favourable
destination
Hsehold decision
Can cope?
Seasonal
Yes, no migration
Permanent
Results
MAMT 5 ry moving average
35.00
34.50
34.00
33.50
MAMT 5 ry moving average
Linear (MAMT 5 ry moving average)
33.00
32.50
32.00
Period in years
Community Description of
Temperature
Temperature
Pre-2000
Post-2000
Description Frequency (%)
Frequency
Future
(%)
Frequency
Percentage
cool
130
87
0
0
0
0
warm
18
12
150
100
99
66
2
1
0
0
51
34
150
100
150
100
150
100
Don't know
Total
Source: Field notes. 2011
Rain Days
120
100
80
Rain Days
60
Series1
Linear (Series1)
40
20
0
Years
Community description of rainfall
Table 4.11: Community description of rainfall
Rainfall
Pre-2000 period
Post-2000 period
Description
Frequency
Percent (%)
Frequency
Percentage (%)
Adequate
139
97
2
1
Inadequate
11
3
148
99
Don't know
0
0
0
0
Total
150
100
150
100
Source: Field notes, 2011
Causes of migration
30
27
25
25
20
17
16
%
15
15
Series1
10
5
0
Climate variability
Conflicts/wars
Economic
Land degradation
Socio-cultural
Destination of migrants
10
7
51
102
36
Upper West Region
Northern Region
Brong Ahofo Region
Ashanti Region
Eastern Region
Outside Ghana
161
Duration of migrants?
300
247
250
200
156
1991-2000
150
2001-2010
120
100
50
50
24
0
0
0
0
0
0
No migration
1-12 months
> 12 months
I don't know
Sex of migrants
285
300
250
200
167
1991-2000
150
2001 2010
100
82
63
50
0
0
0
Migrant sex
Male
Female
Socio-economic effect of migration
Consequence
Beneficial
Negative
Neutral
Total
Frequency
Percentage (%)
131
87
9
6
10
7
150
100
Conclusion
• Over 90% of the people of the study area are
peasant farmers and therefore climatedependent
• Climate variability is the major cause of outmigration in the Nadowli District
• Out-migration is the last resort
• There is an inverse relationship between MAR
and MAT
• Climate- induced migration is affects men
decision to migrate than women
• There is an emerging pattern and trend of
migration (destination and duration)
• Out-migration is generally beneficial with
minor negative consequences
Recommedations
1. Vigorous public education on adaptation and
mitigation strategies
2. Construction of irrigation dams/dug outs
3. Provision of improved seeds and crop
varieties
4. Provision of micro-credits to peasant farmers,
especially women
5. Cultivation of non-traditional crops and
livestock rearing
6. Improved climate prediction and weather
forecasting
7. Formulation and implementation of migration
policy
References
• Abdul-Korah, G.B. (2007). ‘Where is not
home?’: Dagaaba migrants in the Brong Ahafo
Region, 1980 to the present. African Affairs,
106, 71-94.
• Adelekan, I. O. & Afolayan, A. (1999). The role
of climatic variations on migration and human
health in Africa. The Environmentalist, 18(4),
213-218.
• Adiku, S. G. K., Dayananda, P. W. A., Rose, C.
W. & Dowuona, G. N. N. (1997). An analysis of
the within-season rainfall characteristics and
simulation of the daily rainfall in two savanna
zones in Ghana. Agricultural and Forest
Meteorology, 86, 51-62.
• Akokpari, J. K., (1998). The State, refugees
and migration in Sub-Saharan Africa.
International migration, 36, 211-234.
• McLeman, R. and Smit, B. (2006). Migration as
an adaptation to climate change. Climatic
Change, 76, 31-53.
• Nabila, J.S. (1974). The migration of the Frafra
of northern Ghana: A case study of cyclical
labor migration in West Africa .Unpublished
doctoral dissertation, Michigan State
University, East Lansing.